APS-C DSLR lineup to get a shake up? [CR1]

[tron]

Canon should keep making the 77D or 80D but the 7DIII should be an Eos-R camera. Canon need to start moving customers to mirrorless. An APS-C high frame rate , silent shutter , good focusing system , two cards would help push lens sales.
Then also have some entry level APS-C mirrorless Cameras and drop the M series which no longer have a real future.

May be you need for some reason you only can know. We do not know what Canon needs! Unless you work for Canon of course) Also an APS-C high frame rate is used for birding mostly and sports (maybe). In these cases EVFs FAIL to perform and spend battery A LOT! So the oposite seems more reasonable: Mirrorless Lower end APS-C cameras not Higher End ones.

 

[Hector1970]

The ILC market is seeing an increase in the fraction of mirrorless...but it’s a slow increase, and it’s driven by a decline in DSLRs (likely due to market saturation), not an increase in MILCs. Unless that slow pace increases substantially, in 5 years DSLRs will still comprise a large fraction of the ILC market, and if that’s the case, Canon will keep right on launching EF lenses.

Truthfully, MILCs really aren’t all that different from DSLRs and don’t offer meaningful advantages for most users. People who think that omitting the mirror from an ILC is somehow an industry paradigm shift are fooling themselves. That’s not an ‘in your shoes’ opinion thing, it’s a statement backed up by market data. Film to digital was a bona fide paradigm shift, and in less than 10 years the market shifted from SLRs to DSLRs, and film ILCs were relegated to a niche market with minuscule sales. Today, 10 years after the wide availability of MILC systems, they have less than 40% of the ILC market, and MILC shipments have been essentially flat for the past 6 years.

"Truthfully, MILCs really aren’t all that different from DSLRs and don’t offer meaningful advantages for most users. "
That's to you who knows alot about photography. DSLR's have proven to be a great camera design.
A buyer in the market for a new camera who investigates what to buy is getting MILC pushed in front of their noses as the latest and greatest. It's (relatively compared to DSLR) new and shiny.
An 8K television doesn't offer meaningful advantages for most users but if someone is buying a television today (if they can afford) might be tempted to buy it. If they already have a 4K television it might be only reason they would buy a new TV. Camera makers are running out of advances and MILC is the thing they can best hang their hat on at the moment. That's why they are all pushing MILC. What would help is really good MILC cameras. Most new things have a slow adoption that accelerates over time and replaces the older technology. This year and next year is the main test for MILC as Sony have been joined by Canon and Nikon seriously in that market.
Who knows what the future will bring. Increased populations might keep camera sales up or phones might decrease it to a much smaller market. Canon, Sony and Nikon are under pressure in the camera business. They need new products to sell and new customers to stay in the camera business.

 

[Hector1970]

May be you need for some reason you only can know. We do not know what Canon needs! Unless you work for Canon of course) Also an APS-C high frame rate is used for birding mostly and sports (maybe). In these cases EVFs FAIL to perform and spend battery A LOT! So the oposite seems more reasonable: Mirrorless Lower end APS-C cameras not Higher End ones.

But if Canon can overcome the problems of EVF (which should be possible) and gain some advantage on battery life (which would appear to be difficult - I don't know why they just don't use Dilithium crystals) this would be a market advantage. Mirrorless has the potential for much higher frame rates. Mirrored is physically limited to how FPS it can be.

 

[criscokkat]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the a6400/a7000. The a6400's new focusing speed and effectiveness is purportedly greatly improved, and the a7000 that will be talked about next month will supposedly have a new sensor in it and have the same improved bionz chip. We'll see first hand how well the new tracking software works with firmware updates to the a9/a7III/A7IIIr series about the same time.

If Sony really has made great leaps in computational algorithms for tracking, it puts even more pressure on Canon. Hopefully this type of upgrade is what is being alluded to in their talks about "Major firmware updates" for the R. I still think we will see a smaller than full frame sensor for the R series at some point, hopefully soon. If Canon can optimize the response time of the R it would even be more capable with a smaller sensor as it has less data to process.

 

[unfocused]

...Who knows what the future will bring. Increased populations might keep camera sales up or phones might decrease it to a much smaller market. Canon, Sony and Nikon are under pressure in the camera business. They need new products to sell and new customers to stay in the camera business.

It's important to remember that the huge spike in sales that camera makers saw as a result of the digital revolution in photography was not normal. Best example I can think of to compare is the surge in popularity that occurred in the late 60s, early 70s with the combination of affordable consumer SLRs, rising income among the middle class and the popularity in the mass media of romanticized versions of photographers. Eventually sales settled back to more sustainable numbers and an industry shakeout occurred that left Canon and Nikon standing, while other brands fell.

I've long suspected that Nikon and Canon both knew that the digital bubble would eventually burst (although I doubt they realized how devastating the iPhone would be to their point and shoot divisions). My guess is that the contraction in the market is something they've been preparing for for quite some time. If I had to predict, I would say that DSLRs and mirrorless models will coexist for many years and that evolutionary, rather than revolutionary, changes are likely to occur that could eventually lead to a form factor that combines the best of both, but it is likely a decade or more away.

 

[FoxbatB]

Most likely that Pentax will be the next company to exit the market.
Nikon would be the other company still making APS-C DSLRs. I hear their gear is OK.

I have some Nikon film bodies and lenses, if it's Nikon, I'm for Nikon

 

[Loswr]

"Truthfully, MILCs really aren’t all that different from DSLRs and don’t offer meaningful advantages for most users. "
That's to you who knows alot about photography. DSLR's have proven to be a great camera design.
A buyer in the market for a new camera who investigates what to buy is getting MILC pushed in front of their noses as the latest and greatest. It's (relatively compared to DSLR) new and shiny.

That’s not ‘to me’, that’s what the market data show. More people are buying DSLRs than MILCs. I’m not sure if you don’t believe the CIPA data, or are just one of those people who refuse to allow facts and data alter their opinion, and prefer instead to live in their own personal reality where their opinion is fact.

Certainly agree that the future is unknown, but if one is going to make predictions about it anyway, it’s better that those predictions are predicated in fact instead of fantasy.

 

[[email protected]]

A couple observations:
1) Canon's high-end glass releases have slowed over the years. I do think they're putting out the best they've ever put out, but they're not releasing many variations versus 5 years ago. We may find that this was partly due to them holding off on releasing the R lenses until the body was ready, and perhaps they'll make up some ground, but current reports are that they won't release any new EF lenses in this entire year. So if I were to pick up a 7D2 replacement, I'd want it to be in R, as I'll know the new glass investments will matter for the long-term. Meanwhile, I can use my nice glass with the adapter with very little downside, and even some upsides. If they release the 7D2 replacement in EF, I don't anticipate I'll bite.

2) What seems like Canon's primary tech weakness is throughput and processing speed. If this isn't fixed, it may well mean we'll get another EF-mount 7D. The 7D2 was used as a platform to develop a few new technologies that were later adapted into the 5 and 1 series, but I wouldn't expect that precedent to mean much. Most times Canon when uses one model as a major tech introduction platform, the next revision winds up being more incremental. Think 5D2 or 1DX or 6D. People who thought the 5D2 meant the 5D3 was going to push the video envelope were disappointed, as were people looking for a new record for price/low light performance with the new version of the 6 series. Canon is perfectly capable of putting out a 7D3 in EF with a very slight bump in sensor performance, no increase in FPS and a few new interface features, and calling it a 7D2 successor *particularly* because it is consolidating it with lower-end lines. My hopes are not hight, but as is often the case, I hope to be wrong.

3) Canon's crop naming schemes seem so irrational as to be the product of individual brand manager's choice, trying to optimize sales for a single camera, rather than creating an orderly set of camera line names. I think you can dismiss names as meaningless for accurate predictions, but it might be safer to guess there will be some consolidation among the crop lines. Since may people have a tough choice between an 80D and a 7D2, it sort of makes sense to combine them. Throwing the 77D (winner for oddest Canon name) in wouldn't put too many people's noses out of joint.

 

[Loswr]

Throwing the 77D (winner for oddest Canon name)

Well, maybe the oddest among their DSLRs. In the compact camera realm, there’s the PowerShot S100...both of them, the 2 MP older one and the 12 MP newer one:

 

[Andreasb]

I agree with you that a 7DMKII, needs to be a Great Nikon D500 competitor, and the message to Canon after over 4 years of the MKII if the new MKIII isn't what a birder like me wants, I will go to either Nikon or Sony (when they have real telephoto lenses)

Eye tracking on the Sony A9 is hugely impressive, and look at what they just pre announced.

I am not so sure about that.

But I do know that I (that is me) want a capable 7D Mk III. For me that means (when compared to the 7D Mk II):
(1) a better AF-system (in particulat in lower light and with less contrasty subjects - and also better tracking properties);
(2) a sensor with better DR and less noise.
In short: I want it to be at least (!) as good as the D500 in these areas.

And Canon will only be able to bring such a camera if it will be priced aroud the 2000 euro/dollar. Or perhaps better: Canon will only be willing to bring such a camera at that price. So I hope that if there is some truth in this CR1 rumor, that this camera will be priced around 2000 euro/dollar.
If not, it will very likely not be the camera I am looking for to replace my 7D Mk II.

 

[Deleted member 378085]

Sounds like a downgrade is coming and Nikon need not worry about upgrading the D500. So there will be no 300 f/2.8L III or 500 f/4L III this year or at all for EF. Makes little sense to release just the 400 and 600 in EF.

You do realize the above information is "rumor" not "fact" so no need to jump to conclusions on the super teles.

 

[unfocused]

1) Canon's high-end glass releases have slowed over the years. I do think they're putting out the best they've ever put out, but they're not releasing many variations versus 5 years ago. We may find that this was partly due to them holding off on releasing the R lenses until the body was ready, and perhaps they'll make up some ground, but current reports are that they won't release any new EF lenses in this entire year. So if I were to pick up a 7D2 replacement, I'd want it to be in R, as I'll know the new glass investments will matter for the long-term. Meanwhile, I can use my nice glass with the adapter with very little downside, and even some upsides. If they release the 7D2 replacement in EF, I don't anticipate I'll bite...

I don't follow this reasoning. I don't see any evidence that Canon's high-end glass releases have been any slower than in the past. Lenses tend to have a long lifespan and there is always a significant number of years between releases. The EF-L line is a mature product line, so it's not surprising that there are long waits between new releases, especially because the options for change in lens design are pretty limited. Recent releases like the 70-200 f2.8 III demonstrate how little room for improvement there is in lens design.

I don't know why you would prefer a 7DII replacement be mirrorless without knowing what comprises that might entail. I would expect that the sports/action cameras like the 7D and 1Dx will be among the last to go mirrorless simply because mirrorless technology is not yet capable of competing with DSLRs in the areas where these cameras excel. Why would Canon release a 7DIII and 1Dx III and then suddenly release R lenses that are targeted to the use cases of cameras that couldn't utilize the lenses?

 

[Adelino]

I think most watchers of cameras saw this coming.

 

[criscokkat]

A couple observations:
1) Canon's high-end glass releases have slowed over the years. I do think they're putting out the best they've ever put out, but they're not releasing many variations versus 5 years ago. We may find that this was partly due to them holding off on releasing the R lenses until the body was ready, and perhaps they'll make up some ground, but current reports are that they won't release any new EF lenses in this entire year. So if I were to pick up a 7D2 replacement, I'd want it to be in R, as I'll know the new glass investments will matter for the long-term. Meanwhile, I can use my nice glass with the adapter with very little downside, and even some upsides. If they release the 7D2 replacement in EF, I don't anticipate I'll bite.

I think it's more of a limitation of time vs staffing for their development teams. They've been focused on the R for the past year, and before that they were focused on building out the M line with a few EF redesigns in the mix. We'll know more in about 6 months after the next few cameras are either announced or leaked.

 

[Ozarker]

Love it when people post about manufacturing staffing, production lines, constraints, etc... and it becomes completely obvious the person never designed, prototyped, and then produced a product in a factory. I think most people would be shocked at how long a new product (done right) is actually in design and development before it is manufactured for the public. "XYZ camera company just released camera "JHG" with an awesome spec sheet. Canon must be scrambling fast to tweek the specs for the new "KYH" it will be releasing next week."

I started working for P&G way back in 1984. The plant in Jackson, Tennessee (where I worked) manufactured Pringles. That product began development in 1956. Pringles did not reach store shelves until 1967. By 1984 the brand still had not made a profit and P&G withdrew all advertising dollars. Finally, by fy 1986 a profit of around $6,000 was made. The brand grew from there and is now manufactured by Kellogg's, still in Jackson.

My point is that all you guys running around with hair on fire thinking these things are done overnight are plain nutty. Think the R and the RF lenses suddenly sprang into existence in the last year or two? Think IBIS is a snap just because another company does it? Think Canon can just tear apart a competitor's camera and reverse engineer the design and throw it onto the market?

 

[justaCanonuser]

with mirrorless aps-c doing 20-30 fps now and becoming a real competition when it comes to focusing.... why buying a mirrorslapper?

i would love to see a high-end mirrorless aps-c with 20 fps and great focusing for BIF.

For wildlife photography, a main market for a 7D like camera, a mirror slapper still makes sense. Wildlife means that you sit in your camouflage tent and peer for hours at your motif, and nothing happens - and then, suddenly, comes the moment you've been waiting for (or never). With a ML camera you pay for every look through the EVF with a sip of electrical energy. So you have to carry much more replacement batteries with you than with an OVF camera. I know, wildlife photography is a bit crazy, but people like me love it, and IMO ML technology isn't yet mature enough for this application.

 

[justaCanonuser]

Combine the flippy touch-screen and improved sensor of the 80D with the enhanced autofocus and focus control aspects of the 7D Mark II.

I agree but I'd like to add that Canon would need to improve the 7DII's underwhelming phase detection AF performance substantially. When I added the 7DII as crop camera to my 5DIII I was really shocked because I hoped that the 7DII would nail e.g. BIF just like the 5DIII (e.g. with an EF 500mm lens). It does not, and I tried nearly every AF settings available. I get much more in-focus images with the 5DIII when I shoot action, despite its much slower burst rate.

 

[Antono Refa]

The 7D has been called mini 1DX, high fps sports camera with extra reach due to higher pixel density.

I would expect a MILC version of the 7D, for the same reasons people expect EOS-R version of the 1DX, once the technology matures, e.g. higher fps & the screen no blacking out during exposure.

Looking at the EOS-M line of lenses, it seems to be Canon doesn't plan to make a pro line out of it, so I expect a crop EOS-R to come up at some point.

On the other hand, I can see the EOS 7D hanging around, e.g. for birding, where one doesn't want to burn battery while looking through view finder.

 

[Talys]

You do realize the above information is "rumor" not "fact" so no need to jump to conclusions on the super teles.

That's because rumor logic is really awesome. Rumor: <any rumor> [CR0-CR3]…. Conclusion: Canon isn't going to make EF stuff anymore!

 

[BurningPlatform]

Sony just announced their new APS-C mirrorless a6400. Cost $900, 11 FPS while tracking. Animal eye AF. 4K video with no crop and no pixel binning. Tilt- flip screen.

Is this what the Canon camera of this rumor will compete with? Doubt if Canon will match this price.

I find it really strange that Sony decided to release a camera between α6300 and α6500, which already were quite close to each other. (I also wonder why no native English speaking web site - or forum dweller - seems to be able to find the α character in their machines. Well. here it is: α. Sony marketing people must be thrilled when nobody can spell their product names correctly.)