Over your timeframes, the cheaper DLSR/compact camera market has been decimated by mobile phones. That has accounted for the change in unit sales vs average selling price.
This has been one of my main arguments on this forum, Smartphones wiped out low end cameras thereby pushing the mirrorless makers to make high end models to differentiate. I guess we differ on who we think will buy those higher end models.
Canon has managed to navigate this disruptive change and still have ~50% of the unit sales. That is remarkable and demonstrative of a Japanese company to innovate.
As mentioned before Canon's approximately 50% share is now down to 46.5% share. But to be clear that share is JUST among Japanese manufactures. For example the BCN has DJI as the number 1 manufacturer in the "Digital Video Camera Category" with 45% of the market in Japan. Keep in mind that the "Action Camera Category" is seperate where the number 1 manufacturer is GoPro. This was my point earlier. The CIPA numbers allow the Japanese to pretend its business as usual but the reality is landscape is changing. Imagine if we had worldwide numbers for DJI.
https://digicame-info.com/2024/07/bcn-award-2025no1.html
Canon's market share strategy is also coming at the expense losing ground in relation to revenue. Below is the Camera revenue from the top 4 Japanese manufactuers. Canon accounted for 36% of that revenue in 2022 and is down to 31% through the first half of 2024. They may gain some ground back through the end of the year with the release of the R5mii but will likely end 2024 lower than 2023.
| 2022 | % share | 2023 | % share | 2024 H1 | % share |
Canon | ¥509,800 | 36% | ¥544,600 | 34% | ¥257,400 | 31% |
Sony | ¥534,376 | 38% | ¥615,993 | 39% | ¥326,196 | 40% |
Nikon | ¥226,600 | 16% | ¥264,900 | 17% | ¥141,500 | 17% |
Fuji | ¥137,500 | 10% | ¥163,700 | 10% | ¥97,600 | 12% |
Millions of Yen | ¥1,408,276 | | ¥1,589,193 | | ¥822,696 | |
So in 2022 Canon was 46.5% of unit sales but was 36% of the revenue and then in 2023 Canon was again 46.5% of unit sales and 34% of revenue. The strategy is clear, discount to maintain market share. As a consumer I'm in agreement. The R6mii competes directly with the A7IV and even though the R6mii is newer they put it on sale at $500 off at $2000 vs the A7IV at $2500.
No one in their right mind would have expected the technology in phones (and associated cameras) to improve so much so that multiple fixed lens cameras and computational photography would be available. Everyone is a photographer now even if the price of a phone is way beyond what a compact camera sold for in the past.
Completely agree here.
A ILC (and higher end phone) can also be seen as status/luxury items showing a level of wealth even if they are far beyond the needs and ability of those "hobbyists".
Many "professionals" now make money by taking wealthy prosumers on travel workshops A lot of them are retirees with significant kit. The ability to make money from selling photos (and music!) is not by selling postcards but offering services to others to share their knowledge by training and locations and youtube views.
Most the people I'm associate with are in this group. The vast majority of the people I know buying high end gear are "Content Creators" Most these people have 2-3 camera bodies and are changing those bodies out ever couple of years.
Sony/Canon/Nikon are moving to higher margin products where they can differentiate from phones and remain profitable. They have all stated this in their financial documents.
Again this is the point I have been making. Volume is never going to get back to where it was so they are going to focus on making higher margin off of a lower volume of cameras.
As
@neuroanatomist clearly articulates in the US (generally true globally) that the number of "professionals" are decreasing.
The number of prosumers with disposable income are increasing (middle class expansion - however you want to define it) hence your demographic assumption isn't correct.
In most "western" countries and China/Japan, there are fewer young people supporting a greater % of older people. The median age/life expectancy is increasing almost everywhere. The population "pyramid" is moving to a "coffin" shaped age demographic in higher income countries which are the ones buying ILCs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
Millenials (as is everyone) are buying heaps of cameras but they are phones. The number of photos taken daily has exploded over time.
Again both of you are missing that Youtubers are the new "professionals". I can point you to countless people shooting social media content on Canon C70's and Sony FX3's.
https://www.dpreview.com/articles/1...stry-according-to-the-people-who-make-cameras
Everyone is looking to 'creators' for growth
Camera companies see video use growing across all categories of users, but there's one segment they're all laser-focused on: creators. I couldn't get through five minutes of conversation without hearing the word 'creator.'
But what, exactly, is a 'creator?' At a basic level, it's someone who uses a camera to create content for public sharing. But let's be clear about what the camera companies mean when they talk about targeting 'creators': Gen Z and teenagers. I'm not just speculating; they straight up told me that in multiple conversations. Camera companies see this demographic as a critical market for the future, and there's a land grab going on to attract these users in their formative years to create brand loyalists.
Take a look at this guys instagram.
https://www.instagram.com/landonbtw/?hl=en
He's only 27 and has been a "content creator" since he was 21. So in the last 6 years this kid has owned Panasonic Lumix, Sony FX3, Sony A7SIII, Black Magic 6K, Canon 1Dxmii and Canon C70. Not to mention the lenses, lights, gimals, monitors, etc. Were talking about a hundreds of thousands of dollars in gear.
And he makes his money selling courses teaching people how to make "films" with their iphones.
Does the occasional Dentist buy a $8k Leica or Hasselblad to flex on the shelf in his home office? Sure. But that isn't what is driving the market in my opinion.
Why are all the camera manufacturers so focused on video? The R5mii isn't much different from the R5 from a photography perspective they just made it a better video camera. Hobbyist don't need 8k/60 10 bit Clog 2 footage that they need color grade, Youtubers do.