Full frame mirrorless market share: Canon already has 22% of the market in Japan

[jd7]

My speculation: Autofocus on the Z7 doesn't feel very good with adapted (Nikon) lenses, while adapted Canon lenses feel great on the EOS R. That greatly limits the number of people will buy one as another camera that will work well with their existing gear.

I haven't personally tried a Z6 or Z7 but from everything I have read, I agree. It seems Canon has done a pretty good job of making it about as easy possible for existing Canon users to transition to the R system (given Canon decided to go for a new mount).

 

[Uneternal]

After all the bad reviews, a lot of people saying its the worst Canon ever and Sony fanboys picking on the EOS R for no fullframe 4K and no IBIS... the camera STILL sells like hotcakes and almost took a fourth of the market share from Sony.
Again: We are talking about ONE camera model that IMHO is even slightly overpriced vs 6-7 models from Sony in every price category. And this in just 2 months... Thats a hard pill for Sony fans to swallow.

 

[mb66energy]

Tough times for Sony being the only producer of FF mirrorless in the sub 4k $/EUR region. But I think they tried to keep their users by providing fine lenses for their system in the last two or three years and I think they will survive on the long term with a 20-30% market share which means maybe a 50% drop of sold units ... because a lot of Nikon and Canon users have not switched and waited for a FF system from their own brand. This might double the units sold per month (just a rough estimate).

I often thought about buying a Sony FF mirrorless with adapter for my EF glass but this resulted in 1500 EUR / $ investment, a "mixed up" system and the need to process files in another software - I use Canons DPP and I am very satisfied with it. So I tryed the 5D classic second hand for 500 $/EUR and while it was a good experience the modern APS-C cameras have similar IQ so it was not the quantum leap IQ wise. So I was patient enough to wait what happens.

I am not shure if the EOS R is the right camera for me but I enjoy to have the option to buy one if I go FF again and - what is an incredible positive for me and what I wished for 10 years: An f-stop ring around the lens base ... coming true with the right adaptor. Lens wise I am well equipped for my needs so I do not depend on new RF lenses except maybe an RF 35-105 f/2.8 IS but maybe to boring for the market ...

 

[memoriaphoto]

I think Canon may actually be taking this seriously.

RF 50/1.2 , 28-70/2

Did you have doubts about that?

;-)

 

[Memirsbrunnr]

But, how do you intrepret the figures? A bunch of pre-orders all dropping in a few days do not equal market share, except for those few days. I expect the number to drop as potential Canon buyers get their camera. After a year, what will the figure look like? Canon also knows this, so expect to see more camera variations and more lenses pushed out as soon as they can get them ready.

I would prefer a price drop instead. It si holding me back from buying one ATM

 

[Maximilian]

Sony is doomed

 

[mirage]

Great times! 5 companies making mirrorfree FF camera systems now for us to choose from. FINALLY! More choice. More competition. Better cameras and lenses. Lower prices and lower priced cameras and lenses will follow soon. Right direction, keep going!

 

[Del Paso]

Sony is doomed

So sad, so sad, I could almost cry...if I didn't have my EOS R to console me!

 

[Stuart]

This sounds very good for Canon, I hope there are a lot of early adopters and then prices drop a bit.

 

[docsmith]

Not shipped units but sold units. BCN has deals with a large percentage of the larger camera retailers and receives sales figures from them. They don't provide data on cameras only, but all kinds of products, appliances being a big part of their market info.

You may be thinking of CIPA.

Thanks. I was trying to figure out how Canon had two monthly time points and Nikon three when the cameras were announced but not actually shipping (at least here in the US, not sure about Japan, but assume similar) until early October (Canon) and late September (Nikon). Its a small thing, but I like to understand what I am looking at.

From the translation of the BCN article below, I think the answer is pre-orders. Canon and Nikon where making pretty significant in roads based on pre-orders and then actual sales (online-in store).

From the translation of the article....
According to the BCN rankings, Sony had secured nearly 100% of its share until July 18, but the sales share of the two companies rose by the pre-sale of Nikon Z7 in August and the book sales of Canon EOS R in September. In October, both companies in Canon and Nikon reached 32.6%.

 

[Treyarnon]

Sorry, but this is a total smokescreen. Of course Sony would have 100% market share when they have this particular market to themselves - and of course that share will drop as others arrive at the party.

However what is NOT shown in the graphic? Actual number of units sold, and this is really all that matters. One assumes that this omission was on purpose?

 

[Treyarnon]

I'm curious why Nikon didn't get nearly the bump that Canon got. From reviews to date, it seems that the Z7 is a great camera. Does Canon have that much greater of a following in Japan than Nikon?

The Z7 should be better than the EOS R -> its an extra 50% more money.

I have not been looking as closely on the Nikon as the R - so apologies if I'm missing something, but my take is that compared the the EOS R, the Z6 is a little under featured, and the Z7 a little over priced. I am also a little intrigued as to how Nikon plans to introduce a more pro orientated body into their line. You can take the Z7, and add a second card slot and secondary controls on the external battery grip, improve the AF tracking ... but would you then sell this camera alongside the Z7, or replace it?
I expect all of these first generation cameras from Nikon and Canon to have relatively short shelf lives, but the Z7 could be particularly short. Or does the existance of the Z7 indicate that the 'pro body' is a while off for Nikon??

 

[BillB]

Sorry, but this is a total smokescreen. Of course Sony would have 100% market share when they have this particular market to themselves - and of course that share will drop as others arrive at the party.

However what is NOT shown in the graphic? Actual number of units sold, and this is really all that matters. One assumes that this omission was on purpose?

If you are big on conspiracy theories. Not a good idea to assume it is on purpose when incompetence is an explanation.

 

[jeffa4444]

Treyamon has a point. I would be interested in units sold not % as the market may have grown for mirrorless at the expense of DSLRs or high end compacts.

 

[dak723]

Maybe because Canon has the a much larger market share of DSLR users and they are already invested in Canon lenses.

Yes. Despite the constant crying on internet forums about changing brands if not satisfied, photographers buying a FF camera will already be invested in a system and rarely switch brands. Even if not invested heavily, photographers probably have already discovered which brand is their favorite - or handles in the way they are used to. I prefer Canon color - and am used to Canon's ergonomics - so I would not even consider Nikon (ands especially Sony) if looking to go mirrorless FF. My guess is that most folks are like me - not choosing a brand due to loyalty, but because our experience has already determined which brand we consider better than the others for our use.

 

[Woody]

Currently all the percentage numbers are meaningless. Only really interesting thing would be ACTUAL UNITS SOLD [all SKUs lumped together] year-to-date 2018 broken out separately for each of the following current mirrorfree FF camera models...
Unless BCN provides those numbers, they can shove their "market shares", percentages and "sales rankings" up their own rear.

Does any of the companies (Canon, Sony, Nikon, Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax) provide these numbers?

BCNRanking has been providing Japanese market shares statistics for many different products over a very long time (I believe since 1981). If you have doubts about their reliability, you should not believe ANY numbers provided by Sony/Nikon/Canon etc since they too do not give a breakdown on the actual number of units sold.

But I suppose these doubts are raised because Sony is no longer the leader?

 

[amorse]

This is the fist data we've seen in the full frame mirrorless market with more than one brand active, and it is only the percentage of sales to one brand or another over that period in one country - not number of units in hands, not the total number of units moved, and not necessarily reflective of people switching between brands. We don't know if the increase in marketshare for Canon/Nikon is due to new entrants to the full frame mirrorless market, or movement from Sony. It is really hard to determine true marketshare from this data, but it does indicate that Canon had a better start than Nikon since they both start from zero.

As we've seen plenty of times before, camera manufactures get a huge uptick in sales when they release a new body. We saw full frame market share leaders flip between Canon (October 2017), Nikon (January 2018), and Sony (August 2018) over the last 13 months, coinciding with each company releasing a full frame camera shortly before (6DII, D850, A7III). It makes sense that Canon would receive that many sales, but whether sales continue will be more telling.

With that said, I got to play with an EOS R last week and while it seemed fine, it didn't knock my socks off, but I'd chalk that up to lack of familiarity with the body. The lens offerings are what make the R exciting to me - the fact that Canon is making RF lenses that they couldn't/wouldn't for EF makes the R an enticing product. I would bet that adding a higher-end model will pump the tires on those sales quite a bit. Time will tell.

 

[mirage]

Does any of the companies (Canon, Sony, Nikon, Olympus, Panasonic, Pentax) provide these numbers?
BCNRanking has been providing Japanese market shares statistics for many different products over a very long time (I believe since 1981). If you have doubts about their reliability, you should not believe ANY numbers provided by Sony/Nikon/Canon etc since they too do not give a breakdown on the actual number of units sold.
But I suppose these doubts are raised because Sony is no longer the leader?

BCN etc. do not need "numbers from manufacturers". They get them directly from retail channel. And while I do have some doubts in general re. reliability of their data, that is not my main point here.

What I really criticize is these guys feeding some kind of utterly useless "pseudo data" in the form of "sales rankings" and "% market share" to the media who then publish them with the most catchy and idiotic headline they can possibly think of. I find this misleading, inappropriate and extremely unprofessional conduct.

Either they provide real data, hard numbers [units] that is useful to anybody interested in the subject matter at hand - or if not prepared to give it "for free", then they better just shut up and keep selling it quietly to their corporate clients.

PS: I hold even less sympathy for Sony than for Canon. And more importantly, I don't care a bit about "who leads". Don't own stock of any them. All I want is a "compact, decent, affordable" FF mirrorfree system. By whomever.

 

[Del Paso]

My speculation is that there will be soon very attractive cashbacks or discounts by Sony to protect their jeopardized market share, and also additional EOS R bodies and lenses by Canon. On the field of lenses, it will be hard to compete with Canon.
The empire strikes back!

 

[eosuser1234]

It is not any scientific study or anything, but on a recent trip to Yodobashi one of the largest camera stores in Tokyo, the mirrorless section had a good number of people looking at product (Canon, Sony, Panasonic, Nikon), while the DSLR section had zero. Yes zero. Was in the area for about 30 minutes on a Sunday.