Just for Jrista: 2014 Market Data

[Woody]

You asked for info regarding the latest interchangeable lens camera market. Thom Hogan has done the job for you:

http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/interchangeable-lens-market.html

"So I went back to Canon and Nikon’s recent published numbers and the CIPA shipment numbers for 2014 so far and plugged them into a spreadsheet with Sony’s claims and an assumption about Sony’s DSLR sales (which they didn’t disclose). What I came up with was a range of values that went like this:

Canon — 38 to 40%
Nikon — 33 to 35%
Sony — 12 to 14%

...But, overall, it looks to me that we’re still locked into the same basic pattern for unit volume in interchangeable lens cameras that we’ve had since the early 90’s: Canon leading, Nikon following, and Sony (originally Minolta) trailing. At the moment, there’s nothing appearing from any of the three that seems to be going to alter that any time soon."

 

[Click]

Thanks for sharing Woody.

 

[jrista]

Thanks for the link, Woody. Interesting info. At least we aren't looking at a major decline in the ILC market. Once I started looking at sales numbers for the last fiscal year, I started to wonder about whether we were looking at the ILC market contracting like the P&S market did (which has been devastating, and with 20-40mp sensors in phones, and with hose sensors getting bigger, it looks like the P&S market is ultimately not just shrinking, but totally dead in the long run.)

 

[Loswr]

Thanks, Woody. Some good info there, if not really surprising.

Once I started looking at sales numbers for the last fiscal year

After you started doing so, you made comments like this in a few threads:

...Canon has been losing ILC sales for the last couple of years, while Nikon made massive gains last year and is still projecting significant gains for the next couple of years.

That doesn't seem to jive with Hogan's analysis. Frankly, it also doesn't jive with what Nikon's financial data show, nor their projections. For example, from their 1Q15 report, their 1Q15 imaging products business shows all negatives in the Y/Y column, and their full FY2015 estimate states, "Sales plan is revised as European markets are expected to be severer than assumed. The revision pushes down both sales and operating income by 6% and 12%, respectively, from the previous forecast." Oh, and in case you were wondering what that 'previous forecast' stated, it was the following: "Market downturn continues for digital camera-interchangeable lens type and compact DSC. 1st half still faces the unfavorable market condition, but the recovery is expected in the 2nd half. Sales forecast is lowered 8% but increase of operating income is forecasted." In that same full FY2014 presentation, they show Imaging Company loss of unit sales of dSLRs + lenses of 16%.

So, from the Nikon reports which I linked, they lost 16% of unit sales in 2014 compared to 2013, and they predict losses in net sales for FY2015 that are 6% greater than the 8% loss they initially predicted. Can you provide some documentaion for the 'massive gains' you say Nikon made last year, and show where they project significant gains for the next couple of years?

Of course, Canon is losing sales and revenues, too. The market simply isn't in very good shape overall. But you were claiming that Canon was losing sales while Nikon was experiencing 'massive gains'...but looking at the actual data, and Hogan's analysis of those data, I just don't see where you're getting that idea.

 

[Loswr]

Sure. The report I was looking at was for the fiscal year 2013, although the report came out later in 2014. So the massive gains were not for the 2014 fiscal year (last fiscal year, which only ended recently), they were from two "years" ago (fiscal years). My mistake. I didn't realize that Nikon's fiscal years were so offset.

Nikon's and Canon's fiscal years are only offset by one quarter in time (Canon's is the calendar year, Nikon's is April 1 - March 31). But they do name them differently, so Nikon's FY2013 is Apr 2012 - Mar 2013, and Canon's FY2013 is all of 2013.

So...by comparing the FY2013 data from both companies, you basically compared Nikon's 2012 performance to Canon's 2013 performance and came to the conclusion that Nikon was pulling ahead of Canon (I'm still not sure where you got Nikon predicting gains for two years). 2012 was a year of industry-wide double-digit growth for ILCs, 2013 was a year double-digit shrinkage. Now, it turns out your financial analysis was like comparing apples to scallops. Those data from 2 years ago were the basis for your predictions that the 'tides are shifting', and you were suggesting that the shift was a result of Canon's failure to improve sensor technology in the face of Sony/Nikon innovation.

Hopefully that particular prediction wasn't one of the bottom cards in your argument...

 

[unfocused]

Crucify me. I've already been hanging on a cross for a while now, not like it's going to matter.

Oh please spare us the self-pity. You've been on the attack for months now. Every time you are proven wrong you change the goal posts or pull out the "poor me" card. It's time to move on.

 

[privatebydesign]

Crucify me. I've already been hanging on a cross for a while now, not like it's going to matter.

Oh please spare us the self-pity. You've been on the attack for months now. Every time you are proven wrong you change the goal posts or pull out the "poor me" card. It's time to move on.

+ several million

I don't cry when I get set upon

"Just as you sow you shall reap": Stuart Adams.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Crucify me. I've already been hanging on a cross for a while now, not like it's going to matter.

Oh please spare us the self-pity. You've been on the attack for months now. Every time you are proven wrong you change the goal posts or pull out the "poor me" card. It's time to move on.

Aside from this, which I admit I was off a fiscal cycle, what have I been PROVEN wrong on?

You would not be the first to be confused by Nikon's fiscal year cycle. 2015 starting in March 2014! While Canon 2014 FY starts in January 2014.

I do agree with Thoms general information, but then, its his specialty, he is a finance specialist and is able to reconcile some of the various reports.

Camera companies often give misleading data. We have 40% of the market in upper Bangendorf (which has 0.2% of the world wide market)

 

[Loswr]

You would not be the first to be confused by Nikon's fiscal year cycle. 2015 starting in March 2014! While Canon 2014 FY starts in January 2014.

By convention, a fiscal year is always denoted by the year in which it ends. The US government's FY2015 starts 12 days from today. FY2015 for the Japanese government started Apr 1, 2014, as did Canada's.

 

[takesome1]

So if I am reading this article right, Canon is selling more low end crop bodies.
Nikon is selling more high end Pro and Prosumer bodies.

 

[unfocused]

So if I am reading this article right, Canon is selling more low end crop bodies.
Nikon is selling more high end Pro and Prosumer bodies.

You are not reading it right. Nikon has more full frame bodies and Canon has more aps-c bodies. Absent information on sales of specific models it's impossible to know which company is selling more of any particular body or format. Having more of something isn't the same as selling more.

 

[Woody]

In 2010, Canon had a 14.7% market share lead on Nikon. As of today, at worst, according to Hogan's data, Nikon has reduced that gap by 50% at worst, by 80% at best, and on average by 75%. Even if we take the worst case scenario, for any company to change a large market share differential by 50% is significant.

That is overly simplistic. Take a look at the worldwide DSLR market shares from 2006 to 2008:

http://www.photoscala.de/Artikel/DSLR-Welt-im-Wandel

In 2007 and 2008, Nikon nearly caught up with Canon. But Canon pulled far ahead again in 2010 and 2011.

In short, Canon and Nikon numbers fluctuate from year to year. But the Canon ~ 40% and Nikon ~ 35% numbers have been fairly stable since 2012.

 

[Aglet]

as I was pre-ordering my 7d2 today, (uh-hmmm... cough..) my LCS guy said pre-orders for the 7d2 vs the d750 were running about 15-to-1.
Holy cow! much more pent up demand hoping for a large improvement over the old 7d than any craving for a new FF Nik body is my interpretation, especially when there's already 2 good options in the 800 and 600 series that many are likely already satisfied with.
You could spin that as too many FF nik bodies available.. or, quite possibly, a lot of people wanting a better Canon crop body that they will finally get.

 

[msm]

as I was pre-ordering my 7d2 today, (uh-hmmm... cough..) my LCS guy said pre-orders for the 7d2 vs the d750 were running about 15-to-1.
...

Oh, so despite all your complaining about Canon sensors you still buy Canon cameras? I guess this is a good demonstration of why Canon does not need to care about the low ISO image quality of their sensors.

 

[ChristopherMarkPerez]

Hey! Come on now. Isn't it easier to complain than it is to go out and actually make an incredible image? If you're a Pro, isn't it easier to complain to an art-director that your images are inferior due the equipment you used than it is to actually deliver the goods? In which case you'll not be a Pro for very long.

LOL!

as I was pre-ordering my 7d2 today, (uh-hmmm... cough..) my LCS guy said pre-orders for the 7d2 vs the d750 were running about 15-to-1.
...

Oh, so despite all your complaining about Canon sensors you still buy Canon cameras? I guess this is a good demonstration of why Canon does not need to care about the low ISO image quality of their sensors.

 

[Loswr]

...my LCS guy said pre-orders for the 7d2 vs the d750 were running about 15-to-1.

Clearly there are a whole lot of people out there who don't really understand just how poor Canon sensors are, that they're years behind everyone else and practically incapable of making a decent image.

I mean, if Canon had modernized their sensor production instead of continuing to use archaic processes, they might be able to compete with Nikon and Sony, whereas clearly you're confirming Canon's failure and inability to make a viable camera.

 

[docsmith]

Just to point it out, but Nikon has bee steadily releasing new bodies over the last 4 years whereas Canon released 1DX, 1DC, 5DIII, 6D, 60D, T4i, and EOS-M, all in 2012. 2013 was just the T5i, SL1, and 70D. The T5i is more of a continuation/model per year (until 2014), the SL1 seems to have become more of a minor niche, with the 70D being, my perception, the "major" announcement (unless you count the M2, which wasn't even released in the US). In 2014, only the T5 until the 7DII. So there was nothing new and exciting (unless you get excited by the T5) to spur sales in 2014 until the 7DII. We'll see what is released in the rest of 2014. But 2015/16 is when I am expecting updates to the other bodies. Until then, to an extent, I suspect you are discussing an ebb tide and not a true prolonged trend.

That said, the real reason I am writing this post, how the heck can I first hear a rumor about a new Canon mount from Thom Hogan and not a site called CANON RUMORS. Anyone know more about what Thom is referencing? "Coincidentally, there are now rumors floating around that Canon might introduce a new mount with smaller sensor (ala the Nikon 1)." Did I miss something?

 

[Sporgon]

as I was pre-ordering my 7d2 today, (uh-hmmm... cough..) my LCS guy said pre-orders for the 7d2 vs the d750 were running about 15-to-1.
Holy cow! much more pent up demand hoping for a large improvement over the old 7d than any craving for a new FF Nik body is my interpretation, especially when there's already 2 good options in the 800 and 600 series that many are likely already satisfied with.
You could spin that as too many FF nik bodies available.. or, quite possibly, a lot of people wanting a better Canon crop body that they will finally get.

I'm not at all surprised about a 15-1 ratio between a good, new APS camera and the same FF. Look at the on cost with building a FF system compared with smaller format. OK, many people revel in this, some really need it, but at the end of the day there is going to be a lot more cost to produce images that are generally indistinguishable from one another, most of the time.

IMO Nikon are going to be heading down the wrong path again if they put their emphasis on FF cameras at the expense of cheaper, better value APS, especially as time is moving on and those who have used film are going to be less in number, and so the format size will generally have less impact on the buying decision for many.

 

[Loswr]

Just to point it out, but Nikon has bee steadily releasing new bodies over the last 4 years whereas Canon released 1DX, 5DIII, 6D, 60D, T4i, and EOS-M, all in 2012. 2013 was just the T5i, SL1, and 70D. the T5i is more of a continuation/model per year (until 2014), the SL1 seems to have become more of a minor niche, with the 70D being, my perception, the "major" announcement (unless you count the M2, which wasn't even released in the US). In 2014, only the T5 until the 7DII. So, I would not be surprised if estimates of Canon's 2014 numbers are off. There was nothing new and exciting (unless you get excited by the T5) until the 7DII. We'll see what is released in the rest of 2014. But 2015/16 is when I am expecting updates to the other bodies. Until then, to an extent, I suspect you are discussing an ebb tide and not a true prolonged trend.

That said, the real reason I am writing this post, how the heck can I first hear a rumor about a new Canon mount from Thom Hogan and not a site called CANON RUMORS. Anyone know more about what Thom is referencing? "Coincidentally, there are now rumors floating around that Canon might introduce a new mount with smaller sensor (ala the Nikon 1)." Did I miss something?

I caught that as well, but I wonder if Canon prediction of improving sales isn't simply due to the forthcoming T6i/750D.

 

[Busted Knuckles]

Oh, I just couldn't stop myself.

There might be trend that the crop sensor is "good enough" for the vast middle of the market - from entry level enthusiast to the cheap ass pro I saw using a 30d for a paid gig last spring at the indy car races in St. Pete. (When the car owner asked him to a pic of the two of us w/ my 5d3 he about choked - he was getting paid enough to have a 7d or even a 1d around his neck - for a laugh another friend f1 car owner bought his photo dude the Leica s2 to complete his 1dx for the Montreal race - when only the very best will do...) Sorry for the distraction and derision.

In a similar fashion that cell phone cameras crushed the P&S market, truly capable crop bodies are recapturing market share from the pro & middle/upper enthusiast segment. The increased sales forecast from canon could be the bet on the 7d2???

IF IF If that is the case, then the Oly/Pano M4/3 offerings may start to play a spoiler if not "bleeding edge" role. No doubt Sony has been throwing body configurations at the wall and hoping something sticks or simply provide a solution to so many niches that it might add up to something. (Common you have to give up to the low light of the 7s - just I don't shoot in the dark that often but when you need something for the mood of the video....)

I certainly don't know the number of buyers - pondering though, the sidelines seems uncrowded for the pro market to fully support the 1dx, etc levels - it seems the enthusiasts that drive the ILC market and every time the crop sensor gets more capable it pulls from both ends of the spectrum. The world economy is recovering and with the few extra hundred dollars of disposable cash moving from a t1,2,3,4,5/30,40,50,60d or Gxxx? to a 7d2 would be a giant leap in functions compared to moving to a 60,70d without having to re-glass or to FF and re-glassing.