More Than One Active Full Frame Mirrorless Project at Canon? [CR1]

[ahsanford]

Admin could post a survey of “would you buy” mirrorless body options to see where forum members stand. We probably are not a representative sample, but it would be interesting.

A slice of this was already done, but we certainly could get more detailed, get into the specifics of a proposed system:

http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?topic=28223.0

http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?topic=28231.0

But, as I'll say for the umpteenth time, CR Forums dwellers are not the market. Some external market research on this would be a terrific read.

- A

 

[jedy]

Sceptical Canon will give Sony serious competition on their first outing. On the plus side, their professional service is highly praised by many Canon users whereas Sony lags behind in this area. It'll be interesting to find out whether Canon's well established camera expertise can migrate over to mirrorless or whether they'll have to go back to the drawing board. Time will tell. Despite my scepticism, I do hope Canon can provide competition for Sony as this will only spur them both on to produce better cameras. Yes Canon (and Nikon) are late to the party but at least we have some cameras on the way at last.

 

[ahsanford]

Sceptical Canon will give Sony serious competition on their first outing. On the plus side, their professional service is highly praised by many Canon users whereas Sony lags behind in this area. It'll be interesting to find out whether Canon's well established camera expertise can migrate over to mirrorless or whether they'll have to go back to the drawing board. Time will tell. Despite my scepticism, I do hope Canon can provide competition for Sony as this will only spur them both on to produce better cameras. Yes Canon (and Nikon) are late to the party but at least we have some cameras on the way at last.

No need to hope or 'time will tell' -- compare EOS M vs. other APS-C or m43 mirrorless platforms.

EOS M is underspec'd and overpriced on a pure spec sheet sort of comparison to the market. But it has DPAF, Canon quality and ergonomic know-how, and is one first-party attachment away from the entire EF portolio. (And it is selling well, #2 globally in the MILC market.)

Now read that same paragraph above again and apply it to full-frame. That's what likely will happen. We'll get a DPAF driven rig with a logical set of controls and an overly ambitious price for its feature set. And it will sell well.

The only critical unknowns in Canon's approach to the FF market are the mount choice, what market level to start in (6D-level vs. 5D level vs. 1D level), and when it's coming. But that's about it. Provided 'Canon does Canon' like it usually does, whatever this thing ends up being will be a success for its target market.

- A

 

[jedy]

The only critical unknowns in Canon's approach to the FF market are the mount choice, what market level to start in (6D-level vs. 5D level vs. 1D level), and when it's coming. But that's about it. Provided 'Canon does Canon' like it usually does, whatever this thing ends up being will be a success for its target market.

- A

Personally, I think the hardest market to convince straight away will be the pro market as buying into a new, untested and most likely overpriced (as you predict) type of camera the moment it comes to the market won't make good business sense. Maybe a 6D level camera that could be used alongside a 5DIV/1DX or one that the rich gear whores will lap up could be Canon's best move. Speculations, speculations!

 

[ahsanford]

The only critical unknowns in Canon's approach to the FF market are the mount choice, what market level to start in (6D-level vs. 5D level vs. 1D level), and when it's coming. But that's about it. Provided 'Canon does Canon' like it usually does, whatever this thing ends up being will be a success for its target market.

- A

Personally, I think the hardest market to convince straight away will be the pro market as buying into a new, untested and most likely overpriced (as you predict) type of camera the moment it comes to the market won't make good business sense. Maybe a 6D level camera that could be used alongside a 5DIV/1DX or one that the rich gear whores will lap up could be Canon's best move. Speculations, speculations!

My money is still on:

80% likely: A 6D-level camera that will be gobbled up by enthusiasts and considered as a second body for pros who do event/wedding work (where a silent rig + EVF + MF peaking + amplified VF would be handy). More powerful rigs will come over time, but the pent up demand is in the 6D-level space.

Rationale: pros and fickle and need time to thaw out on mirrorless. In contrast, I believe
there's a large pent up enthusiast / amateur group that wants to be part of what's next,
wants to tinker, and wants to bring their gear more places. They will buy a Canon FF mirrorless
rig on day one just like many did in APS-C when EOS M was announced.

20% likely: A fixed lens rig a la the Sony RX1R II and Leica Q.

Rationale: Canon knows that 1%-ers need to spend their money on something, and not all
of them have the chops to use a Leica M effectively. In effect, such a rig -- though possibly
comprehensive and powerful in setup and controls -- is a super high premium point and shoot
for those who money is no object.

- A

 

[AvTvM]

The only critical unknowns in Canon's approach to the FF market are the mount choice, what market level to start in (6D-level vs. 5D level vs. 1D level), and when it's coming. But that's about it. Provided 'Canon does Canon' like it usually does, whatever this thing ends up being will be a success for its target market.

- A

Personally, I think the hardest market to convince straight away will be the pro market as buying into a new, untested and most likely overpriced (as you predict) type of camera the moment it comes to the market won't make good business sense. Maybe a 6D level camera that could be used alongside a 5DIV/1DX or one that the rich gear whores will lap up could be Canon's best move. Speculations, speculations!

i agree. i also speculate it will not be "all-in pro", but "enthusiast". medium-specced and comparatively expensive. somewhere midway between
6d 2 and 5D 4, eg 5d 4 sensor and some sort of 4k video but not highest end, and rest aki to 6d 2 capabilities - translated into mirrorless. not a sony A9 competitor, nor an A7R 3 competitor. targeted at Sony A7 III. pricing something like 2499 MSRP. and it will have to be small, so "upgraders" from phone cams and all others who want a small, but fully capable camera with excelkent IQ will buy it and DSLR owners (without adapter-fear-syndrome) looking for a smaller, lighter, more discreet, totally silent etc. secondary system will also buy it.

 

[ahsanford]

i agree. i also speculate it will not be "all-in pro", but "enthusiast". medium-specced and comparatively expensive. somewhere midway between
6d 2 and 5D 4, eg 5d 4 sensor and some sort of 4k video but not highest end, and rest aki to 6d 2 capabilities - translated into mirrorless. not a sony A9 competitor, nor an A7R 3 competitor. targeted at Sony A7 III. pricing something like 2499 MSRP. and it will have to be small, so "upgraders" from phone cams and all others who want a small, but fully capable camera with excelkent IQ will buy it and DSLR owners (without adapter-fear-syndrome) looking for a smaller, lighter, more discreet, totally silent etc. secondary system will also buy it.

A 6D2-level rig for $2499 sounds about right, but again, I'm not convinced it must be tiny. Everything looks like a huge brick compared to a cell phone, so I still see this rig predominantly aimed at avid enthusiasts and not the cell phone masses. If it's an ILC and not a fixed lens camera, it's overwhelmingly not going to be the buyer's first camera.

But if it's a fixed lens rig, it might be a first camera for some. I could see a budding Instagram star who might have the 'eye' or curated tastemaking thing down pat and want that sweet, sweet bokeh and low light ability for their food / bikini / jetsetting shots -- but at the same time lack the patience for all the 'aperture-shutter-compensation stuff.' :

- A

 

[AvTvM]

upgraders from APS-C rebel class DSLRs will likely also prefer it small.

i would consider it an easier proposition to sell current rebel / xxD DSLR owners an upgrade to "ultimate FF / IQ goodness plus all the mirrorless advantages" in a package about the size of their rebel, rather than in the form of 1.5 pound 6D or even 5D brick. ;-)

they also wint have to worry about lens compatibility, since they need to dump their EF-S glass anyways when migrating to FF. ;-)

 

[Loswr]

upgraders from APS-C rebel class DSLRs will likely also prefer it small.

Then I guess they'll be disappointed, too. Or maybe not, since it will be only slightly larger than a Rebel dSLR (the regular ones, not the SL variety).

 

[AvTvM]

upgraders from APS-C rebel class DSLRs will likely also prefer it small.

Then I guess they'll be disappointed, too. Or maybe not, since it will be only slightly larger than a Rebel dSLR (the regular ones, not the SL variety).

if it were about Sony A7 (1st gen) sized - even if grip were somewhat chunkier to accommodate a substantial LP-E6N size battery, it would still be noticably smaller than a regular rebel and thinner than an SL-2.
http://j.mp/2y9KlqS

 

[Ozarker]

The only critical unknowns in Canon's approach to the FF market are the mount choice, what market level to start in (6D-level vs. 5D level vs. 1D level), and when it's coming. But that's about it. Provided 'Canon does Canon' like it usually does, whatever this thing ends up being will be a success for its target market.

- A

Personally, I think the hardest market to convince straight away will be the pro market as buying into a new, untested and most likely overpriced (as you predict) type of camera the moment it comes to the market won't make good business sense. Maybe a 6D level camera that could be used alongside a 5DIV/1DX or one that the rich gear whores will lap up could be Canon's best move. Speculations, speculations!

My money is still on:

80% likely: A 6D-level camera that will be gobbled up by enthusiasts and considered as a second body for pros who do event/wedding work (where a silent rig + EVF + MF peaking + amplified VF would be handy). More powerful rigs will come over time, but the pent up demand is in the 6D-level space.

Rationale: pros and fickle and need time to thaw out on mirrorless. In contrast, I believe
there's a large pent up enthusiast / amateur group that wants to be part of what's next,
wants to tinker, and wants to bring their gear more places. They will buy a Canon FF mirrorless
rig on day one just like many did in APS-C when EOS M was announced.

20% likely: A fixed lens rig a la the Sony RX1R II and Leica Q.

Rationale: Canon knows that 1%-ers need to spend their money on something, and not all
of them have the chops to use a Leica M effectively. In effect, such a rig -- though possibly
comprehensive and powerful in setup and controls -- is a super high premium point and shoot
for those who money is no object.

- A

I really do wish you would do better research and get the made up numbers and percentages right. Also, the pent up demand is not at the 6D level. It is at the T3i level. That is according to reliable sources that the "Ahsanford Show" ought to be aware of.

 

[ahsanford]

I really do wish you would do better research and get the made up numbers and percentages right. Also, the pent up demand is not at the 6D level. It is at the T3i level. That is according to reliable sources that the "Ahsanford Show" ought to be aware of.

T3i, nice one. We didn't know how perfect it was until it was gone.

- A

 

[Mikehit]

Personally, I think the hardest market to convince straight away will be the pro market as buying into a new, untested and most likely overpriced (as you predict) type of camera the moment it comes to the market won't make good business sense. Maybe a 6D level camera that could be used alongside a 5DIV/1DX or one that the rich gear whores will lap up could be Canon's best move. Speculations, speculations!

Knowing it has a Canon badge on it, with a Canon sensor they are happy with, and is supported by the full portfolio of Canon lenses and customer support will help a lot to give pros the confidence to try it out. That is good business sense.

 

[unfocused]

Still finding this whole thread a bit mind boggling.

Here is the rumor: Three full-frame mirrorless cameras will join Canon's full-frame DSLR lineup: fixed lens, special mount and traditional EF mount.

If true, that should satisfy just about everyone. What I find amazing is that so many people aren't content with getting the camera they want -- they also want to make sure that others don't get the camera they want.

Then there is the idea that just because Canon may begin offering some full frame Mirrorless models, that somehow means that DSLRs can't continue to be sold -- that one must inevitably supplant the other.

DSLRs have a lot of advantages that cannot be replicated with mirrorless, just as mirrorless have advantages that DSLRs don't have.

This is not going to be a zero sum game as some people insist. Is it possible that someday the DSLR format will merge with mirrorless? Certainly, but it could be quite some time before that happens. Predicting the massive demise of DSLRs in two years is kind of ridiculous.

It's true that in the face of a shrinking market, there are tremendous risks for all camera manufacturers. But, frankly, mirrorless is neither going to save nor destroy the market. The trends that are hurting the market have nothing to do with the format of cameras, and everything to do with cell phones and ease of connectivity.

All of the manufacturers have been painfully slow in adapting to a world dominated by social media. It cost them the point-and-shoot market and it may cost them the next generation of would-be APS-C users.

Will there continue to be sufficient demand for high-end dedicated devices (and high-end really means anything over about $500) to keep the camera industry alive? I certainly hope so. But I'm not so delusional as to think mirrorless cameras will have the least bit of impact on the overall trends.

So, for now, let's all celebrate Canon's willingness to make a significant investment in mirrorless and be content that those who want a mirrorless full-frame system could soon have their wishes fulfilled, at no price to those who have different priorities.

 

[Jack Douglas]

I still don't get it. So, have cell phones been hurting small cameras or big fat pro cameras the most. Do cell phones compete best with cameras with 35mm lenses or 400mm lenses? How is mirrorless the great potential savior of the camera companies?

As alluded to in previous posts; why the religious fervor over mirrorless? Let both peacefully coexist and let me choose what I like to shoot with.

Jack

 

[Ozarker]

Could it be that there will be more EF pancake style lenses with STM motors for those who want small and compact? f/2.8 like Canon's 40mm pancake? Is a 50 and 85mm able to be made that short? We already have the 40mm and the 24mm. Both are f/2.8. Well, the 24 is EF-s, but one would think it would be no problem making it with an EF mount after a few other mods. Maybe: 24, 40, 65, 90. That would mean small for those who want small.

 

[Ozarker]

I still don't get it. So, have cell phones been hurting small cameras or big fat pro cameras the most. Do cell phones compete best with cameras with 35mm lenses or 400mm lenses? How is mirrorless the great potential savior of the camera companies?

As alluded to in previous posts; why the religious fervor over mirrorless? Let both peacefully coexist and let me choose what I like to shoot with.

Jack

;D ;D ;D The fervor will reach it's zenith when it doesn't turn out to be the camera some people have dreamed up in their minds. We endure the threads where mirrorless is considered the second coming. When it finally gets here, they'll be screaming the thing is the anti-Christ because a specific feature they wanted isn't there (But is on a Sony) or that the camera is struck with some kind of crippling disease.

 

[AvTvM]

mirrorless will "supplant", replace, make DSLRs obsolete. Just like automobiles supplanted horse-drawn carts and digital cameras supplanted film - even when horse carriages and film cameras can still be used and even bought new by a few people. and the transition will be very soon over the next 2-3 years, not in the distant future.

even the next transition in image capturing is already well underway. "computational photography" gear is making its first forays into the market. first mover lytro did not succeed in mass market, now Light L16 is at the start. we shall see whether it / that concept gets traction or if it is also a bit too ahead of its time.

end result is plain to see: mirrorless allows us to finally jettison mechanical contraptions like flapping mirrors, submirror assemblies, shutter curtains, aperture rings and the like. computational photography will allow us to finally shed the need for those large, heavy, expensive and delicate ground and polished glass blocks called lenses. collecting incoming photons and arranging them neatly into the visual patterns / images we desire can also be handled by an array of small lenses and some smart software in a small camera with incredible image quality - at a fraction of the cost, bulk, size, weight, obtrusiveness of "legacy cameras and optics".

these transitions are not an outcome of feverish dreams and personal wishlists but the result of techno-LOGICAL progress abd hard economic facts ... ability to produce better products at lower costs and sell them at even higher prices is damn attractive in any industry and market. it just makes plain sense. companies who dont board the train in time will be left behind. kodak is there and many others will follow or are in grave danger to follow if they dont move really fast now to catch the right train. just to end this post on a nice little doomsday note.

 

[Jack Douglas]

So what is the dire consequence of not heeding this prophesy? Does this somehow tie in with Planet X and earth's destruction with only mirrorless folk being saved? :'(

 

[Mikehit]

these transitions are not an outcome of feverish dreams and personal wishlists but the result of techno-LOGICAL

Does making crass puns make you feel intelligent?

companies who dont board the train in time will be left behind.

WOW! He's a marketing genius as well

in time will be left behind. kodak is there and many others will follow or are in grave danger to follow if they dont move really fast now to catch the right train.

YAWN! That old 'move fast' trope. I don't think it means what you think it means.