only canon, nikon and sony will survive?

[nda]

some interesting reading

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/12/29/business/29reuters-japan-cameras.html?hp&_r=2&

and

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ja&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fbcnranking.jp%2Fnews%2F1312%2F131227_27056.html

unfortunately the last link is translated!!!

 

[TAF]

Excellent links, thank you.

My interpretation of this, FWIW, is that the consumer has figured out that compact fixed lens cameras are not enough better than cell phone cameras to be worth the hassle, thus dooming the compact camera market.

They also seem to understand that SLR type cameras are still vastly superior to cellphones and compact cameras, thus making for good sales of SLR's.

The mirrorless market segment is not succeeding because 1) the manufacturers have failed to make it clear that they have the image quality of the SLR (my EOS-M is superior to my 50D), and 2) the mirrorless still doesn't work as well as an SLR - primarily focus speed - and if it does, it costs as much as an SLR, and thus isn't normally considered due to #1 above.

My recommendations - better marketing; then technical improvements in the mirrorless models.

How long before we see a mirrorless integrated with Google Glass or equivalent? Dual pixel autofocus? Etc.

(if someone can tell me what they really mean in the translated article when they use the phrase sub-machine gun for a camera, I'd appreciate it)

 

[Aglet]

similarly interesting is the top 20 camera models in sales for both mirrorless and SLR. But only in Japan.
i'd like to see the numbers for other economic regions.

http://photorumors.com/2013/12/30/best-selling-cameras-in-japan-for-2013-and-the-future-of-the-industry-according-to-one-financial-analyst/#more-52456

 

[Hillsilly]

My interpretation of this, FWIW, is that the consumer has figured out that compact fixed lens cameras are not enough better than cell phone cameras to be worth the hassle, thus dooming the compact camera market.

And in hindsight, I wonder if Canon, Nikon and others are kicking themselves for being so complacent with compact cameras? Why is it that my phone has IQ virtually as good as most compact cameras with the benefit of better connectivity? Why is it that the GoPro is the only compact camera even remotely on my purchasing radar? Where have Canon and Nikon been for the last ten years? Anyway, good on Nokia, HTC, Samsung and others for powering ahead and equipping a new generation of photographers. Perhaps these will be the big camera companies in 20 years time, too. Perhaps the megapixel war was really a poisoned chalice for the camera companies.

The real challenge for camera makers relates to changes in consumer behaviour and the impact of online sales, where less experienced camera buyers will tend to favour the safe option of Canon and Nikon, as they are the brands that are associated with quality cameras, and often attract substantial discounts.

But I think most camera companies will survive. I also think the future looks particularly bright for the first company that can produce an APS-C mirrorless camera, that has DSLR-like performance, small size and well laid out controls. Yesterday, in 35+ degree heat (>95F) and almost 100% humidity, I was sporting my little Fuji X-E1 at a local tourist attraction. I was getting a LOT of envious looks from sweaty, overburdened DSLR users.

 

[nda]

But I think most camera companies will survive. I also think the future looks particularly bright for the first company that can produce an APS-C mirrorless camera, that has DSLR-like performance, small size and well laid out controls. Yesterday, in 35+ degree heat (>95F) and almost 100% humidity, I was sporting my little Fuji X-E1 at a local tourist attraction. I was getting a LOT of envious looks from sweaty, overburdened DSLR users.

X-E2, and the X-Pro1 replacement whatever it's called(X-Pro1s, X-Pro2, etc)