IglooEater said:
Choice is normally good for the overall market, so I’m excited to see what comes from Tamron. imho Sigma’s venture into that territory with the 500mm f/4 sports was just to expensive to choose over a used Canon edition.
Yeah, IglooEater, I was looking to buy a 500mm Sigma. Reportedly an excellent lens, just as good as Canon's, but for reported focus shift affecting apertures greater than f/4 (not a great concern for me). That said, I found a used 500mm L II for 116% the cost of the best used Sigma 500 cost, so I bought the Canon of course, as it doesn't have the focus shift issue, and it'll retain value much more over time.
Pretty sure we'll see Sigma's 500 come down to $4500 eventually from the $6k you see now. A sigma offering at 400mm could very well be a $2500 lens, if they chose to go for volume (something Tamron can do much more so than Sigma).
I suspect Tamron would do better to throw the 500mm into the market first, though. More demand, less competition. More of an upgrade market, where most owners of a 400 would need something special to "upgrade" to something that also only got 400mm.
Would expect a Tamron 500 f/4 to go for $3500. Being the cost of a decent pro body, that's a pretty darned reasonable package.
Further, I think the big white refresh from Canon will have to be priced lower than the version IIs simply due to existing and forthcoming competition. They might launch high, but I expect the effective price after discounts to be much lower than the current effective prices. When I borrow a big white from Canon now through its CPS program, they list on the invoice the value of the lens at $16,000, yet they charge $10k-12k in reality. Wouldn't be surprised if we are in the 5-figure range for the next generation once they catch up with supplying the market for those who just can't wait to pay the full price on pre-orders (a year in, typically).