Roadmaps

[richy]

I spent about 5 years in IT building and installing networks / laptops and desktops. Intel, AMD, Nvidia, ATI, Cisco, Gigabyte and many more companies all sent us roadmaps of future products and even in many cases engineering samples for testing prior to general release. We may not have known specifics in great detail but we had 18-24 months visibility to a quarter level in most cases.
Would it really cause so much trouble for Canon and Nikon who have very substantial commercial photographer customer bases to let us know whats coming in the following financial year so we can plan capex? If canon say a 1ds4 is due q2 2011 nikon have no huge advantage. They don't know the exact specifications and if they try and upstage the launch by releasing a competitor camera a week early they win nothing. Anybody with half a brain would wait the week or the month to compare with canons offering. Not knowing when the camera will come, or even what year or if at all, now that makes changing brands more likely. I guess some muppet has a flashy powerpoint presentation that sold the board on the secret squirrel approach but frankly as a commercial customer it sucks hugely and has cost canon all my business this year.
Plenty of other companies release a hell of a lot more information about their products significantly in advance without any negative effects. It probably takes 2-3 years to rtm a top of the line camera or lens, 12 months knowledge of a rough release date is unlikely to have any negative impact.

 

[Macadameane]

When an item is announced, sales drop. This is especially true with camera bodies. With lenses, they have announced them a little earlier (unfortunately with many delays).

 

[Loswr]

I spent about 5 years in IT building and installing networks / laptops and desktops. Intel, AMD, Nvidia, ATI, Cisco, Gigabyte and many more companies all sent us roadmaps of future products and even in many cases engineering samples for testing prior to general release.

The thing that distinguishes Canon and Nikon from the companies you mention is that the main customer base for IT products is industry (mid-sized and primarily large corporations). Corporations have the ability and the need to forecast spending, and (usually) the ability to spend according to plan. I get a new laptop at work on a two year cycle. It doesn't matter if a Lenovo T500 is coming out in a week, if the T400 is the current model when I'm due for a replacement, that's what I'll get - on time. On the other hand, the main customer base for digital cameras is the consumer - and Joe Consumer is notoriously bad at expenditure planning and even worse executing on those plans. Put simply, predictable customers (business) need roadmaps and unpredictable customers (consumers) don't. When will I buy a new dSLR? When I drop my current one on the floor and file an insurance claim, or when I see one in a store and it looks enticing, or when I get my tax refund, or.....whenever I feel like it. But if I know a 5DIII is coming out in 4 months, and I don't need one today (even if I break my 5DII, I still have my 7D), I'll wait the 4 months, and Canon will lose a sale.

 

[lee_hom]

I think this is due to the super long product life cycles thus the tech gap is huge between makes. The DSLR pro consumer market is so small, ppl will definitely hold their money if they knew there will be a newer make. Canon don't want us to do that.

 

[richy]

Very true, but what about us poor sods in the middle? Not consumers or prosumers but not large companies either? I get not producing one for rebels etc, but for the single digit series (1/5/7d) it would be nice to know at least what year / half if not what quarter to budget for. The bottom line is some peoples money will go elsewhere. I will replace cameras if they brake, otherwise I will wait until the new models are out unless there is something new I want to do that my current camera is holding back. If I am going to make more money by diversifying my product then I will invest in new technology, if my cameras are nearing the end of a period of use that I am happy with I will 'retire' them to reduce in field failures.

Prices will drop when new cameras are announced, but they usually have been dropping over the course of the now extinct product cycle, production costs had also dropped in tandem with this.

I guess its just me that gets frustrated with it lol. As a consumer you may be basing purchases on tax returns, birthdays, or even insurance jobs when something new and shiny appears, as a business you want to plan your capex so as to minimise the tax you pay. Given that Canikon sell to both professionals and consumers, perhaps dual strategies would be in order ?

 

[Admin US West]

Plenty of other companies release a hell of a lot more information about their products significantly in advance without any negative effects. It probably takes 2-3 years to rtm a top of the line camera or lens, 12 months knowledge of a rough release date is unlikely to have any negative impact.

Welcome to the world of cameras. The competition is fierce, and future models apparently do not have critical specs determined until the last moment. sometimes, I think they throw in some extras at the last moment that haven't actually been developed. There is a lot of one upmanship, as soon as you announce, the competition has to gain one up on you, so its better to keep quiet. Canon is particularly good at keeping things secret, Nikon has a lot of leaks. Sigma announces products a year in advance, and sometimes the product does not appear, or is a year late.

Canon Announced 4 new supertelephoto lenses last fall and has yet to be able to deliver them. Some people actually sold their old lenses, and are stuck.

I'd prefer that equipment be actually available before its announced due to the history of so many things going wrong.

 

[Loswr]

I'd prefer that equipment be actually available before its announced due to the history of so many things going wrong.

Sandy Bridge was announced on the Intel roadmap. It was released and available approximately on schedule. Things still went wrong... :

 

[unfocused]

I don't think you can compare a product that must integrate into a much larger network with a camera.

I suspect that IT companies provide information prior to release because they know their products have to integrate into a complex network involving an almost infinite variety of brands and components. I strongly suspect that they don't do it because they are nice guys but because they have to.

True, today's cameras have to integrate with third-party software, but other than that, they are pretty much stand-alone products. When it is necessary to integrate with other components they follow long-established industry standards (for example: memory cards, tripod mounts, sync cords, microphone connections, etc.)

The advance notice that you reference in the IT world is an exception that is pretty much unique and results from the peculiar demands of that industry.

 

[LetTheRightLensIn]

I spent about 5 years in IT building and installing networks / laptops and desktops. Intel, AMD, Nvidia, ATI, Cisco, Gigabyte and many more companies all sent us roadmaps of future products and even in many cases engineering samples for testing prior to general release. We may not have known specifics in great detail but we had 18-24 months visibility to a quarter level in most cases.
Would it really cause so much trouble for Canon and Nikon who have very substantial commercial photographer customer bases to let us know whats coming in the following financial year so we can plan capex? If canon say a 1ds4 is due q2 2011 nikon have no huge advantage. They don't know the exact specifications and if they try and upstage the launch by releasing a competitor camera a week early they win nothing. Anybody with half a brain would wait the week or the month to compare with canons offering. Not knowing when the camera will come, or even what year or if at all, now that makes changing brands more likely. I guess some muppet has a flashy powerpoint presentation that sold the board on the secret squirrel approach but frankly as a commercial customer it sucks hugely and has cost canon all my business this year.
Plenty of other companies release a hell of a lot more information about their products significantly in advance without any negative effects. It probably takes 2-3 years to rtm a top of the line camera or lens, 12 months knowledge of a rough release date is unlikely to have any negative impact.

Don't forget Osborne.