Sony now #2 in FF camera sales in US

[ahsanford]

Move over Nikon, Sony is fired up for FF in the US:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sony-overtakes-2-position-u-130000620.html

Best I can tell from limited information, this claim is:

• US only
• Based on dollars (not units)
• Reflects FF ILCs only -- so lenses, accessories and fixed lens FF cameras (as tiny as that market is) would not be included

- A

 

[ahsanford]

And if you thought the 'end is nigh for Canon' folks were annoying before... :

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Presuming this data is firm (and remember, this isn't a long-term dea: it's only Jan-Feb data from this year), what's driving Sony's rise?

Theories:

1) Sony is undercutting CaNikon FF camera pricing, especially on last-gen rigs getting marked down (a lot). Canon and Nikon control their inventory better to avoid dangling cheaper last-gen gear out there for very long to protect price of current gen, whereas I can get a 36 MP first-gen A7R new at B&H for $1900 or a 24 MP A7 for $998 right now.

2) Feature laden rigs with tech CaNikon is not offering at those price points (or at all) -- IBIS, 4K, tilty-flippy, etc.

3) Mirrorless form factor -- can't be overstated: some folks love the tiny, and they are the only autofocusing FF mirrorless ILC show in town.

4) EXMOR sensor hotness -- they generally top all the sensor tests and have for some time. DXO -- if you believe them -- peg the every one one of the top 14 FF sensors on the market as coming from Sony.

5) This is more about Nikon failing than Sony succeeding -- they've had some financial problems leading to restructuring, and possibly that effort took attention/energy/dollars/heads away from marketing and sales here in the US.

6) The cameras were always great but now there are proper native pro-level lenses to put on them. Between Zeiss saturation-bombing the mount with new offerings and the G Master line coming to bear, Sony folks aren't left to settle for native f/4 zooms and f/2 primes anymore. It's not the EF or FX line of glass by any stretch, but key pro staple lenses -- 24-70 2.8, 70-200 2.8, 85 1.4, etc. -- are now available.

Curious to see everyone's thoughts. I think it's principally an enthusiast push fueled by 2/3/4 above, but I could be wrong.

- A

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Sony offered some huge markdowns during the period, presumably to move overstock from poor sales.

For example, you could trade in and camera or lens, even a junk one to major camera stores- maybe all stores, a $300 rebate plus $480 for the trade-in for a total of $780 off their FF camera. And, if the trade-in had any additional value, B&H would pay you that too.

This probably did clear out the surplus, but it may also mean that sales will be really poor for months to come. Thats the way rebated work, people hold off buying until another comes along.

http://www.the-digital-picture.com/News/Default.aspx?Year=2017&Month=1

 

[ahsanford]

Sony offered some huge markdowns during the period, presumably to move overstock from poor sales.

For example, you could trade in and camera or lens, even a junk one to major camera stores- maybe all stores, a $300 rebate plus $480 for the trade-in for a total of $780 off their FF camera. And, if the trade-in had any additional value, B&H would pay you that too.

This probably did clear out the surplus, but it may also mean that sales will be really poor for months to come. Thats the way rebated work, people hold off buying until another comes along.

http://www.the-digital-picture.com/News/Default.aspx?Year=2017&Month=1

Yep, play the rebate / incentive / trade-in card too hard to jack up sales and you generate an unsustainable blip in sales. Also, who gets fired up to drop $3k on a rig that will be categorically one-upped in 2 years? Their breakneck business model only works if they bring a ton of new people into the tent.

We'll see if they can keep this up.

- A

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Sony offered some huge markdowns during the period, presumably to move overstock from poor sales.

For example, you could trade in and camera or lens, even a junk one to major camera stores- maybe all stores, a $300 rebate plus $480 for the trade-in for a total of $780 off their FF camera. And, if the trade-in had any additional value, B&H would pay you that too.

This probably did clear out the surplus, but it may also mean that sales will be really poor for months to come. Thats the way rebated work, people hold off buying until another comes along.

http://www.the-digital-picture.com/News/Default.aspx?Year=2017&Month=1

Yep, play the rebate / incentive / trade-in card too hard to jack up sales and you generate an unsustainable blip in sales. Also, who gets fired up to drop $3k on a rig that will be categorically one-upped in 2 years? Their breakneck business model only works if they bring a ton of new people into the tent.

We'll see if they can keep this up.

- A

Yes, the obvious hope is that getting cameras in the hands of more people will stimulate even more sales. Sometimes that works. The market is so tough right now, that it might not happen. Samsung tried literally giving cameras away, they gave away 500 for any trade-in at a Seattle photo event, but it did not help.

 

[BasXcanon]

Curious to see everyone's thoughts. I think it's principally an enthusiast push fueled by 2/3/4 above, but I could be wrong.

I can't speak for the Sony and Nikon cameras.
But I can give you my conclusion on the canon FF models:

Canon 1DS.
Great start! Was the best digital full frame in that time.
The ambient sensor nails the White balance better than most entry lvl cameras today.

Canon 1DS m2.
Well done improvements in the electronics. And able to use the newer CF cards of that time. Worth the upgrade.
Image quality on lower iso numbers is not really noticeable compared to the 1DS.

Canon 1DS m3.
Great improvements in operation. Joystick and menu are logical.
Operates like the modern 1DX series. Straight out of camera jpegs are nice.

Canon 1DX.
Somehow the out of camera jpegs don't look so impressive like the earlier 1DS's. But it was the best sport camera with great buffer and impressive low light performance.

Canon 1DC
I have never used this camera, some will swear for ever that it was way too expensive and the filmmakers like the 5D form more. But C-log is a must for movie makers.

Canon 1DX mark II
I still don't find the jpegs as pleasing as the original 1DS cameras. But the DPAF makes the camera future proof.
The video makers that have the option between 1DC and 1DXm2 will choose 1DC without a doubt.
(Kinda wanting a new Canon 1DC m2) But more and more people are preferring this technology in a 5D form camera.

Canon 5D Classic
A nice portraiture camera for then. Only asking myself why they put that poor AF system in it. They could have token something out of the higher end film cameras.

Canon 5D mark II
Was a great hit because of its video functions! But apart from high iso performance not really making more appealing jpegs than the 5D classic. The operating menu's are on pair with todays. The AF system could have been better in that time.

Canon 5D mark III
It got the much wanted upgrade in AF system, dual card slots and some more features make it a really nice modern camera. During its life time it gain much competition which all produced RAW files that can be better squeezed in post than this 5D series.

Canon 5DS(R)
I dont like the images out of this camera at all. They are way too noisy for me. I only used this camera for 1 hour testing in a camera store. I believe Canon was actually working on the 5Dm4 instead and decided not to give it as much MP as the Sony A7R/Nikon 800, so they needed a new model to impress people spec wise, hence the 51 MegaPixels.
We know the rants: Tilt screen, WIFI, Touchscreen, but the controls are actually fine and proven tech from the 5Dm3.

Canon 5D mark IV
This camera got way too much issues for me to actually buy it. It should have the 9FPS and modern SD cardslot that is being asked for on this forums multiple times. I believe they were working on the 5Dm4 as they heard of new RGB-W sensors and they knew the 5Dm4 will not be a very much future proof camera in 2017. The key priority changed to rushing the engineering and delivering it as quickly on the market as possible before Sony offers an RGB-W sensor FF so Canon has at least some attention again. But I do say that I find the out of camera files more pleasing than the 5Dm3.

Canon 6D
Nice Rebel series camera. It does what it needs for an entry FF. But I find it BS that it was being pointed out as a hardcore landscape camera. A landscape camera should not have an AA-filter i.m.o. I find the grey market price in 2017 a pretty good camera for the value.

Canon 6D mark II
Is now needed to correct all the errors being made in the 5DIV. Canon needs some extra time now to use Digic7 processors to make a future proof camera vs all the upcomming Sony RGB-W sensor cameras.

Canon XD Mirrorless late 2017
Will be announced short after the Nikon DFm2. But I have no high expectations. The camera will be spec wise like the 6DmII but will be crippled like the M5 is from the 80D. (half electronic shutter, Powershot firmware, issues with using flashes.... etc)

Canon 5DS(R) mark II
Will be there in spring 2019, can be the last Canon FF camera with traditional Bayer sensor.
I hope they find a way to improve out of camera files. Be it dual, tripple or quattro Digic 7.
Build quality wise it will be the 5Dm4 with all issues fixed.

Canon 1DX mark III
Probably launched 2 years after the Sony A7R(evolution)III with RBG-W sensor. I hope by that time Adobe will have worked out how to deal with files of that kind. And the 1DX mark III will be the first epic winner in years for Canon.

Future models
Very unknown. There are people that swear there is money in Medium format cameras.
All depends if Canon will ever dive into medium format like someone mentioned.
But I don't think there is all that much money for Canon in that game.

A FF camera without AA-filter and a camera with RBG-W sensor will fulfill the Canon's assortment way beter at this point of time in my opinion.
Furthermore there is still some money for Canon to made if they gave some 4k video options, and make some fast EFS lenses, like the Sigma 18-35mm. There are plenty of prosumers with XXD series that are willing to pay 1k$ for an awesome EFS lens for their youtube movies.

 

[3kramd5]

Presuming this data is firm (and remember, this isn't a long-term dea: it's only Jan-Feb data from this year), what's driving Sony's rise?

Theories:

1) Sony is undercutting CaNikon FF camera pricing, especially on last-gen rigs getting marked down (a lot). Canon and Nikon control their inventory better to avoid dangling cheaper last-gen gear out there for very long to protect price of current gen, whereas I can get a 36 MP first-gen A7R new at B&H for $1900 or a 24 MP A7 for $998 right now.

2) Feature laden rigs with tech CaNikon is not offering at those price points (or at all) -- IBIS, 4K, tilty-flippy, etc.

3) Mirrorless form factor -- can't be overstated: some folks love the tiny, and they are the only autofocusing FF mirrorless ILC show in town.

4) EXMOR sensor hotness -- they generally top all the sensor tests and have for some time. DXO -- if you believe them -- peg the every one one of the top 14 FF sensors on the market as coming from Sony.

5) This is more about Nikon failing than Sony succeeding -- they've had some financial problems leading to restructuring, and possibly that effort took attention/energy/dollars/heads away from marketing and sales here in the US.

6) The cameras were always great but now there are proper native pro-level lenses to put on them. Between Zeiss saturation-bombing the mount with new offerings and the G Master line coming to bear, Sony folks aren't left to settle for native f/4 zooms and f/2 primes anymore. It's not the EF or FX line of glass by any stretch, but key pro staple lenses -- 24-70 2.8, 70-200 2.8, 85 1.4, etc. -- are now available.

Curious to see everyone's thoughts. I think it's principally an enthusiast push fueled by 2/3/4 above, but I could be wrong.

- A

0) ability to try different family of bodies without purchasing any new lenses.

 

[3kramd5]

Canon 1DX mark II... But the DPAF makes the camera future proof.

How?

 

[Tugela]

Sony offered some huge markdowns during the period, presumably to move overstock from poor sales.

For example, you could trade in and camera or lens, even a junk one to major camera stores- maybe all stores, a $300 rebate plus $480 for the trade-in for a total of $780 off their FF camera. And, if the trade-in had any additional value, B&H would pay you that too.

This probably did clear out the surplus, but it may also mean that sales will be really poor for months to come. Thats the way rebated work, people hold off buying until another comes along.

http://www.the-digital-picture.com/News/Default.aspx?Year=2017&Month=1

Yep, play the rebate / incentive / trade-in card too hard to jack up sales and you generate an unsustainable blip in sales. Also, who gets fired up to drop $3k on a rig that will be categorically one-upped in 2 years? Their breakneck business model only works if they bring a ton of new people into the tent.

We'll see if they can keep this up.

- A

Yes, the obvious hope is that getting cameras in the hands of more people will stimulate even more sales. Sometimes that works. The market is so tough right now, that it might not happen. Samsung tried literally giving cameras away, they gave away 500 for any trade-in at a Seattle photo event, but it did not help.

They had already pulled out the market at that point, so it is not like they were trying to attract customers.

In any case, Canon routinely have big discount promos (don't know about Nikon), and that didn't adversely affect their sales, so why do you think that Sony's sales will be affected?

 

[Tugela]

Canon 1DX mark II... But the DPAF makes the camera future proof.

How?

He means it has no future

 

[BasXcanon]

Canon 1DX mark II... But the DPAF makes the camera future proof.

How?

He means it has no future

#I meant to say: after the 70D/80D/7Dm2/M5 we expect a pro camera to have the same autofocus in lifeview.
Agreed, a future proof does not excist. Call it: 2017-proof??

 

[unfocused]

Curious to see everyone's thoughts. I think it's principally an enthusiast push fueled by 2/3/4 above, but I could be wrong.

You forgot:

7) In order to generate a buzz, one manufacturer cherry-picked data from a brief one- to two-month period, which also happens to coincide with the slowest months of the year for retail sales.