Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

[Enrico]

I think it fair to assume/say that the Tsunami added 1 year to the prodution cycles. That affects announcment/release dates and when it will hit the shelves.

At least I think the were looking for the 1DX in early 2011 and the 5D3 in late 2011... add one year and your will be almost there... (+/- 4 months ;D)

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.

Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.

Typically, pro camera bodies are updated every 3-4 years. The technology gets pretty old, and the competition produces somethinng that is substantially better. At that point, either you produce something new, or let the competition have your business.

Most people feel that a new body was planned for last year, when it was delayed by the earthquake in Japan. A new one is overdue.

I certainly expect one this year unless there is another disaster.

 

[photophreek]

I have to agree with neuro on this one. "Hope" it seems, is driving the
5d 3 rumours. Canon is the market share leader regarding DSLR sales at about 45% with Nikon at about half Canon's share. I can't see Canon going "under" because they don't release/announce this camera in 2012. Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released and this notion was dreamed up by perspective buyers trying to predict when a camera body will be announced.

Essentially, people who read this site and the information on it are purely speculating on any camera equipment announcement. This site is for entertainment and postulating only. Posters should try hard not to get too worked up about contrary opnions because in reality, we have no idea what Canon's plans are.

 

[thepancakeman]

Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released

???

 

[Meh]

I agree with many of the sentiments posted in this thread. I do believe it is very likely that a 5D3 will be announced and released in 2012, however, it is speculation. It's fun to speculate and there's no need for tempers over divergent opinions, not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I agree with many of the sentiments posted in this thread. I do believe it is very likely that a 5D3 will be announced and released in 2012, however, it is speculation. It's fun to speculate and there's no need for tempers over divergent opinions, not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.

+1

This site is about rumors and speculation about what will be coming. Those who take it seriously and make purchase decisions, do need to relax and enjoy.

 

[handsomerob]

I have to agree with neuro on this one. "Hope" it seems, is driving the
5d 3 rumours. Canon is the market share leader regarding DSLR sales at about 45% with Nikon at about half Canon's share. I can't see Canon going "under" because they don't release/announce this camera in 2012. Product cycles really don't have any bearing on when a camera body will be released and this notion was dreamed up by perspective buyers trying to predict when a camera body will be announced.

Essentially, people who read this site and the information on it are purely speculating on any camera equipment announcement. This site is for entertainment and postulating only. Posters should try hard not to get too worked up about contrary opnions because in reality, we have no idea what Canon's plans are.

I believe they do. There is mostly a pattern. Or it wouldn't be called a cycle

It's normal to regularly expect new products every few years with technology advancing this fast. Shooting at 6400 ISO was probably a dream 15 years ago, now it's simply "not enough"... (who knows, 204k will probably be clean enough 15 years from now) Camera makers know that and they try to make most profits by introducing new cash cows, regularly. This is great cause we are able to afford all those amazing cameras (like the 5DII at current prices!!) today. I consider myself lucky living in this era.

 

[Loswr]

...not even opinions about the 5D2's AF.

Wait, wait...you mean the 5DII has AF?!? : ;D

Seriously, I completely agree. Well put, +1.

 

[photophreek]

Canon doesn't sit around in meetings and conclude...."well. the 5D product cycle is coming around, time to get out a new body". Product releases are probably decided based on competition, production availablilty, current technology and product sales volumes. It just so happens that there is a pattern.

 

[Doodah]

Because Thom Hogan says in his blog (bythom.com):

"Sometime in early 2012 we're going to have the full FX body updates from both Canon and Nikon. In the case of the 5DII and D700 follow ups, there will be substantive pixel increases (the rumors put both in the 30's)."

And Thom Hogan's leaks (NOT his predictions though) are typically spot on.

 

[Jedifarce]

Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.

Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.

I'm not sure but posters here are fairly certain about it. I think it's more of a concern for folks whom haven't purchased the 5D II yet and are on the fence. I can see the dilemma, should they make the jump to the 5D Mark II now, only to kick themselves when the Mark III comes out a month later? That would drive me crazy as well.

My concern isn't really the Mark III, but deciding what Zeiss CP.2 primes -almost 4k each- I should invest in.

 

[ronderick]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

 

[BaconBets]

The best way to predict what is going to happen is forget what you are hoping for and what you are expecting. Forget the timelines of the past and don't extrapolate and expect strict adherence to release patterns. Digital cameras are maturing, and the last big revolution has occurred (video) - and the camera manufacturers were even caught off guard by it.

So what you do now is pretend you are in Canon's boardroom. What strategy GOING FORWARD will help you sell the most cameras without cannibalizing your own line? We now know the 1dx is coming and what to expect from it. It is going to be a speed demon in every sense (FPS, AF, ISO). We know Nikon's D4 will be the same.

Which means a high MP FF regular body cam with pedestrian handling would complement the line and not compete with it. Expect this type of camera sooner than later.

A lower MP FF regular body with improved iso and handling would only piss in the 1dx's cornflakes.
Expect this kind of camera later than sooner.

Expect Nikon to fall in line with this, as they are also a for profit company recovering from disaster.

Wildcard - If Nikon releases a high MP D800, but also releases a D700s using the D3s sensor after the D4 is released....then all hell will break loose and Canon will have to respond.

 

[wickidwombat]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

definately on the cards i think Nikon did that with the D90 after the D7000 came out is the D90 still a current model? it might be

 

[alexanderferdinand]

Canon is a big player and will try to stay one.

So: if Nikon, Sony will cycle/refresh their products, so Canon will follow.
The Mark 2 is still a very good camera I like to use, although spoiled by the Autofocus of the 1D Mk4.

Nobody is sleeping their, maybe the big three are playing Mikado (first who moves has lost), waiting what the others do.

New cameras in the class A900, D700 and 5D will come, it`s the money.

Pretty sure this year.

 

[Enrico]

Of course there are "product cycles" as in they are working on something new that we call "5D3" and that they started working on that some 3-4 years ago. Canon probably already have a few team prototyping different versions of the next "1DX2".

Then, when it comes to releasing a product and marketing that specific department will run the show and play the waiting game, getting most bang for the buck game etc...

I think photo industry works the same as many other industries, say cars for instance. Developing a "new car" as in a totally new model takes 10 years. And that model will "live" / have a value for about ten more years. Of course you do small updates yearly, perhaps an enginge from a parallell model, interior design... (which is common started 2 years in advance). But then the model is oudated and replaced with a new one they worked on those ten years.... repeat.

I think the same goes for photo (although shorter cycles perhaps).

The 1DX came out as a new platform (ie they stoped the 10 year old earlier platform and started a new)

What they will do with the xxxD, xxD, 7D and 5D only they can tell.

But surely they talk about it in terms of product cycles.

 

[K-amps]

I'm going to tackle this subject from a different perspective:

Would the 5D2 remain on the market as a "current" model even after the release of the 5D3?

I think the situation has been a lot more clear with the recent price drop of the 5D2 under 2K. It seems like a lot of people are reacting favorably towards a full-frame body in the lower price range.

At this point, I think it would make a lot of sense to keep 5D2 on the market under 2K while introducing the 5D3 at the usual 5D-model price range.

Just some thoughts...

Interesting thoughts... perhaps if not for any reason but for fixed (R&D) cost coverage. from a Labor/Material/Overhead perspective, the two should cost Canon the same... however the margins on the 5d3 will be much greater because of the bump in price... would they then entertain cannibalization of the 5d3 by the 5d2?

If past history is worth anything, I would agree... they's rather keep Nikon off, and entertain a bit of losses on the bidy, since this way, we can all buy pricier EF glass.