Will DSLRs be gone by 2025 and CIPA shipment volumes for first quarter

[Diko]

I see mirror-less eaten alive by ever-improving smart-phones

An interesting and quite plausible point. 'Big' offers certain advantages (ergonomics, shallow DoF)...and smartphones are clearly eroding the 'small' in the camera market. After P&S, MILCs are next on the menu.

I think not -due to the Sensor form factor. APS-C will and already have gone 35mm. This is a dedicated MILC territory full of life and opportunities.

... But there will come a time for a lot of these people when they look at their pictures and compare them to what other people are posting. They will realize that they could do better, and they will look to higher end cameras to help them do that. So in my opinion the current explosion in mobile phone picture and video taking is going to create a future market for the DSLR.

I began using Facebook in February 2007. Since then it's easily to find the drastic improvement of people shooting pictures therefore I dismiss this argument as totally out of the question for regular family albums.

I think that the poll is relevant to the PRO segment only.

... The only truly disruptive technology out there right now is light field focusing. If that can be perfected over the next decade, it's entirely possible we may be operating our lenses from a smart phone and then focusing the images later in post.

It can and it has been ;-) One of its commercial names is Lytro and the tech is "Light-field camera".

Smartphones have been trying to boost and helped in developing of new light-gathering approaches for sensors, but as you noted there are some limits. One barrier is already off the vendors' shoulders. One can suppose this tech to come to Smartphones, but currently new options arise as well.

There are a few very promising new ideas for next concept of future camera sensors. Eric Fossum (the father of current CMOS) is working on Quanta Image Sensors. Additionally there are new materials like graphene , molybdenum disulfide, carbon nanotechnology or even germanium that can help in sensort sensitivy advancment.

Will see what and when. So far the big issue is the pixes size VS light wave legnth a.k.a Diffraction limit. It is more of a lens problem actually.

All this said - makes me believe that for smartphones, DSLR, MILCs we have much more to see. Most probably DSL will die. The question is WHEN? And is Ergonomics the only pitfall to its total downfall.

 

[Loswr]

... The only truly disruptive technology out there right now is light field focusing. If that can be perfected over the next decade, it's entirely possible we may be operating our lenses from a smart phone and then focusing the images later in post.

It can and it has been ;-) One of its commercial names is Lytro and the tech is "Light-field camera".

I presume unfocused is aware of Lytro. But surely you're not suggesting that the Lytro cameras represent the perfection of light field technology for commercial/consumer application?

Then again, maybe you think the original EOS 1D was 'perfection'. It had a 4 MP output, too.

 

[Diko]

... The only truly disruptive technology out there right now is light field focusing. If that can be perfected over the next decade, it's entirely possible we may be operating our lenses from a smart phone and then focusing the images later in post.

It can and it has been ;-) One of its commercial names is Lytro and the tech is "Light-field camera".

I presume unfocused is aware of Lytro. But surely you're not suggesting that the Lytro cameras represent the perfection of light field technology for commercial/consumer application?

Then again, maybe you think the original EOS 1D was 'perfection'. It had a 4 MP output, too.

ROFL. No no no. ))) That with the 1D was a nice one.

As for the Lytro IMO it's still in its infancy. And honestly never had the chance to play with one around (yet). So maybe they will think something even more interesting.

So far I believe that "Light-field cameras" are great for smartphones. IMO they should be implemented there for simple end consumers that would enjoy it most.

I personally am not fan of post-focusing. The Photography for me is an art of statement (video is the art of storytelling). So the photo should be well created on concept level prior to shootin.

Who knows? Perhaps in photojournalism there could be a good use of Lytro-like-cameras too.

 

[PhotographyFirst]

... The only truly disruptive technology out there right now is light field focusing. If that can be perfected over the next decade, it's entirely possible we may be operating our lenses from a smart phone and then focusing the images later in post.

It can and it has been ;-) One of its commercial names is Lytro and the tech is "Light-field camera".

I presume unfocused is aware of Lytro. But surely you're not suggesting that the Lytro cameras represent the perfection of light field technology for commercial/consumer application?

Then again, maybe you think the original EOS 1D was 'perfection'. It had a 4 MP output, too.

ROFL. No no no. ))) That with the 1D was a nice one.

As for the Lytro IMO it's still in its infancy. And honestly never had the chance to play with one around (yet). So maybe they will think something even more interesting.

So far I believe that "Light-field cameras" are great for smartphones. IMO they should be implemented there for simple end consumers that would enjoy it most.

I personally am not fan of post-focusing. The Photography for me is an art of statement (video is the art of storytelling). So the photo should be well created on concept level prior to shootin.

Who knows? Perhaps in photojournalism there could be a good use of Lytro-like-cameras too.

I thought Lytro gave up on stills and are now only doing video related products?