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All predictions are based on rumors I have received
So what is Canon giving us next week? A lot of people want the world, unfortunately I don't see it happening.
So what will be launched?
DSLR
Canon Rebel 500D
mp: 15.1
ISO: 100-3200
Proc: DIGIC IV
LCD: 3″ VGA LCD
crop: 1.6
FPS: 3.5
AF: 9 Point AF
AF: Face Detection
Battery: LP-E5
Feature: LiveView
Feature: Movie Mode w/contrast detect AF
Possibly a jogwheel added to the body.
What's not coming?
We will not see a new 1 series body. End of 2009 perhaps? It's been suggested it could be early 2010 before we do.
As pointed out by a reader, 2010 is a winter Olympic year as well as the World Cup. There SHOULD be a new 1D for those events.
Lenses
I think the community is more interested in what lenses are rolling down the pipe. I'll put the rumors in order of likelyhood.
Most Likely
EF 35mm f/1.4L II USM
– We've seen the 50L launched and upgrades to the 14mm and 24mm L's. This is a logical next step.
TS-E 24mm f/3.5L II
– It's generally accepted the current lens has been discontinued. I reported it could be f/2.8, I think it's more likely to be 3.5 because of design limitations.
Don't be shocked if a 2nd focal length Tilt-Shift is launched.
Possible
EF 100-400 f/4-5.6L II IS
– The Canon community wants this lens pretty badly. I just don't think it's coming. Kinda hope I'm wrong.
EF 24-70 f/2.8L II IS
– Possibly the most sought after lens Canonites are lusting after. Match Nikon's optics and add IS? You'd have a massive sales success. It almost wouldn't matter what it cost.
EF 50 f/1.4 II
– Heard various reports about low stock of this lens. A couple of places have said they can't get them anymore. I've heard nothing concrete, nor would I really understand replacing this lens at the present time. Possible that they'll just dump it and replace it with an EF-S 35? I've heard that theory before.
One or two of the big white lenses gets redone. I wouldn't be shocked to see the 300 and 400's get version II's. However, that's more likely to happen in 2010.
Not happening
EF 17-40 f/4L II
– I don't think Canon needs to replace this hot selling lens just yet, there are too many other lenses that people want follow-ups to.
EF 150 f/2.8L IS Macro
– I never reported on this lens because it seemed way far fetched. It makes sense to make a lens like this, I just don't think now is the time for it.
EF 24-105 f/4L II IS
– There's bee murmurs about this lens for a year or so, nothing substantial has come of it yet. I think the current one sticks around for a while. People would go crazy if they upgraded this and left the 24-70 alone.
From Left Field
A new wide angle prime in the 17mm-21mm range.
– There's been a few people around the web talking about such a thing. Even a comment on this site. It's a great idea, nothing concrete.
EF-S Lenses
– I've received no information about a new EF-S lens at this time. Will Canon suprise and follow what Nikon just did with a new 35 for crop cameras? Possible.
Flashes
250EX
– I think a new small flash makes a ton of sense for Canon. You put flash shoes on the G, S and SX cameras, and don't give the people a viable option for a small flash that can bounce? Seems poorly thought out to me. Nikon has one, why doesn't Canon?
700EX
– I reported the possibility of a higher end flash from Canon. I think it's out there and more likely to be launched with a 1 series camera.
PowerShots
Expect the following PowerShots to be replaced.
SD1100 IS
SD890 IS
SD770 IS
SD790 IS
A580
A590 IS
Expect more of the same type of upgrades from Canon for the above cameras. I'm not sure we'll see a direct replacement of either the 580 or 590.
We've received a bunch of information about a waterproof/shockproof camera finally being launched. There's also been a bit of information about a possible new CMOS camera being launched at PMA.
Canon have any surprises in store?
If they do, they've hid it extremely well. I don't think this is the time for Canon to pull a rabbit out of a hat. We all hope I'm wrong with that assessment!
cr
I hope your wrong as well on the 100-400 lens. Personally I refuse to buy the current one and just waiting for the new version to come out.
I sure hope you’re wrong on the dSLR front.
“I don’t think this is the time for Canon to pull a rabbit out of a hat. We all hope I’m wrong with that assessment!”
Yeah, I think you are right, unfortunately. I feel very little will be announced by Canon at PMA.
No word about the *possible* 50mm f/1.4 mk2 ?
Hope you’re wrong !
No news about EOS 7D nor 1DS Mark IV ?
Sorry about that, I didn’t copy/paste the info about that lens over. It’s up now.
Hope the EOS 500D is coming and is a great device…
Thanks for keeping us posted – great work!
What makes you believe early 2010 for the next 1D?
Is that what your sources are saying, or is it your gut?
I hope for that 24-70 2.8L IS USM upgrade with improved optics
(I wish also for a FF DSLR at PMA, but that is a wish, not a hope :) )
Hope your wrong about the DSLR, but fear your right
Keep waiting
35L II will be great, but a prime lens will not be a big cash cow.
zoom is cash cow, everyone knows that.
big guide number handle mount flash will be great too
Is anyone else getting a little put-off by Canon? Sadly it seems Nikon is winning the pro war with the D3 and I am trying to figure out why I am staying Canon. The little voices in my head are whirling around talking about getting rid of my Canon gear and slipping back over to Nikon.
Better flashes
Better ISO
No focus issues
It’s killing me.
It wouldn’t be “back” for me, but I’m also definitely considering switching.
Maybe a 5D firmware update (manual control) that you have to buy!
played around with the idea… shot nikon in the film days (f5 =D ) … i just got a 50D so I’ll stick on board with Canon for a while and see… if this trend continues though… Im out… only thing that’s kept me in Canon camp is affordable long teles… if nikon fills that gap then forget it
I too suspect a 500D with video. Sadly, I too think it will have 15 megapixels. Jog weel? Not a chance methinks. This is one of the distinguishing features between the xxD and xxxD lines.
I too am hoping for a 50/1.4 mk2. Makes sense, with the Nikon AF-S 50/1.4G and the Sigma 50/1.4 new on the market this year. The current shortages may be a signal. I really doubt they’ll dump this lens completely.
35/1.4 mk2 – sounds like a good bet.
Another lens that some folks want badly is 400/5.6 IS. No clue if this is coming. It’s the only big white prime that’s lacking IS.
Sorry for being out of the loop….what’s the focusing issue with Canon???
I would love to see the 24-70mm f/2.8 USM IS II my one missing lens.
Well a new fisheye would be nice too.
I would be happy “not” to see a high end 1Ds given that I just bought one
last summer. I think 3-4 years for $8000 camera bodies allow them to be
true upgrades… to get the “New” features if they Release a D5 model in between
then it’ll make a easier to keep up with features.
What about the rumored canon storage device? The prototype looked pretty cool.
Would be handy on longer trips.
But mostly I want a 24p Option on the 5D MkII it’s useless for any professional film
work with out it. Hell they should be able to do full over and under cranking. The Scarlet
is looking better and better if it ever becomes more then a nifty CG marketing Image.
One other note, with the increasing popularity of IR photography it would be nice
to have a switchable internal filter between IR and VIS.
On other thing that urks me a bit is that Canon has no other option other then
spending $900 + the cost of a GPS to Geotag. If they had a $99 device and firmware
for the whole EOS line they would sell a pile.
The Canon 1D Mark III has been plagued with auto focused issue since day 1. Between several sub-mirror fixes, different dot boxes. Just a hit or miss camera. If you get one that works, it would be like hitting the lottery, but many that I have run into has had one issue or another….
Yeah, I’m surprised about this too. It seems they’re leaving this entire section of the market to Nikon.
A 500D with video makes more sense at this time than a premature 1D series upgrade. Canon will sell a ton more volume at the low end to a lot of enthusiasts looking to tap into a higher end video option but not willing to spend $3000 for the 5DII. If it’s not excessively crippled, it would probably also appeal to a lot of serious users. It could really blow things open if it seriously ups the D90’s specs (and you just know that Nikon won’t be sitting still on this one either).
The buzz about convergence has been around for some time, but I think we’re at the point where we’ll see a significant acceleration over the next year or so as low end cameras with excellent video capability come online. The advantage for Canon in pushing this, even if it competes against their own camcorders, is it will guarantee a lot more accessory sales, such as lenses. You buy a camcorder, and that’s about all Canon gets from you. You buy a DSLR and you’re sucked into a whole other world of upgrade possibilities… This might also be a reason for Canon to upgrade some lenses to quiet USM motors…
As for the 1DIII. I think it really depends a lot on whether Canon’s upper management believes there is actually a problem with the camera. They could be totally convinced it’s OK. Maybe it is now, or it’s as good as it will ever get, but the fact remains that the camera has been given a permanent * in the footnotes of Canon history. Photographers for the most part don’t trust it. I have two and it’s love hate. There are so many great things about the camera, yet it can also disappoint when one doesn’t expect it. If Canon thinks it’s important to release a new 1D before the Olympics, they’ll have to announce it by September and produce enough of them to get into the hands of pros to test and then buy. But it might still not be enough to get many to switch back. It’s downright expensive, and given the current mindset in the media industry (irrelevant of actual economic situation), it will be a very tough sell for Canon to try to convince papers and wires to spend huge amounts to switch back after just having spent all that money on Nikon gear (which in some cases is rumored to have been subsidized by Nikon). It will have to be a truly revolutionary camera, rather than the typical, traditional feature upgrade/refresh.
Lenses:
If you look at the hit Canon has taken from Nikon on the pro end, and you look at the lenses that suffer the most in comparative quality, it’s the TS-E 24 and to some degree the 45mm. They both suffer from a lot of CA, which is a real pita to fix in post, And the 24 needs to be sharper to keep up with the higher rez full frame cameras. If at minimum the 24 isn’t upgraded in the near future, I’ll be very surprised. Compared to Nikon, Canon’s pretty much got the fast prime market wrapped up. The 35L is already great and could hang on a few more years. Perhaps Canon will wait to upgrade that one if Nikon ever releases one… but I could be wrong about this… just that I feel there are other lenses that really need upgrading before the 35L.
It will also be interesting to see if Canon will ever address the Nikkor 200-400. With the high ISO capability of the D3, these lenses are being used a lot more at night/indoor sports events where previously the 400 2.8 was the lens to use.
yeah, I would totally love to have the IR option on my camera … I have been looking at an IR converted one for quite some time, but am worried about the auto focus not working correctly …
j
I would hope to see a “G-MOS” type rangefinder with a 1.6 or 1.3 crop sensor …. I would be all over it like white on rice:-) … am getting tired of shlepping my 1Dmkii everywhere, yet am not totally satisfied with the small sensor G-10 (and the likes)… there is also the G-# sensor dust issue … so I wait, ever more impatiently :-(
j
Do you own one ?. I just read and read and read.
The price for a 1ds MkIII went down to $6400
unless it’s been like that and no one said anything.
The 1Ds Mk III has been around $6400 since the 5D Mk II announcement in September 2008.
That price move was one of the few logical marketing moves that Canon made in 2008. Even at $6400, it’s still overpriced. In fact, Canon’s next 1Ds should be priced in the $6xxx range. They should be close to opening their new CMOS fab (if they haven’t already opened it) and thus, with Nikon’s FF options, Canon really needs to play catch-up and give Nikon a run for their money with regards to price.
that would royally annoy me if i ended up paying for a 5D2 simply for the MPs and FF.
if the drebel series ends up with basically the same AF system (9 point and crappy), video, a scroll wheel and 15MPs (there ain’t a whole lot of functional difference between 21 and 15 MPs), i will be rather disappointed with canon for giving us a non-sealed body whose CF card door creaks like a drebel series body. (actually, my drebel series bodies didn’t creak…)
wtf canon?
I haven’t heard a focus issue on a NEW 1D3 in six months to tell the truth – and in fact fashion week has been full of 1D’s and 5DII’s with the requisite white glass and big thick 24-70’s
And Nikon has had it’s issues – they just don’t sell as many so not as many people talk about them – Dead Batteries, Grips that don’t stay on, Rubber doors that won’t stay shut, inability to produce lenses no matter how good they are, higher (much higher now) prices, and an 8000 dollar camera that produces images that are no better than the 5DII with worse ISO performance…
Now the flip side – I agree that they need a new 1D – can’t believe that they went this long without at least a 1D3N to get some of the “grime” off the 1D name from people that say “I hear” and don’t shoot the camera. But I do believe that the 1DIV will be out this summer or fall and that it will destroy the D3 – for about a year and then a D4 will come and it will continue…
Everyday people switch and they are very rarely all that impressed – from both sides
Rented 2 of them, had issues with both. Seen at least 4 others with issues while being with other photographers at events. I still have my 2 Mark 2Ns. Start-Arts might be right, but I am just not willing to trust something that has had so many problems.
Just saying, in the sports photography world, people, who I have seen switch, are very impressed and happy with the D3 and very ticked with the Mark 3
your a fool!
learn to swim before you jump ship
the 5D2 is worth every penny. no 15 megapixel rebel with a 9 point autofocus will ever come close in terms of IQ. i don’t even know why this would be a comparison made.
Nikon AF is not as fast as 1D Mark III locking the focus. Many shots could be lost waiting for 3 secs to lock on target. The 1D Mark III AF is still the best AF in all DSLRs.
on the other hand if they don’t someone else will. But I’m sure Canon will cripple it in some annoying way so that they can release a 550D for Christmas.
When will Canon be making the announcements? Is it next week?
Hi,
since 500D with 15MP would have pixels of half the size of the pixles of 5dmkii, I wouln’t expext the same ISO-Range. So I expect 100-1600 on auto and 3200 manually or the same ISO range of 450D with less noise.
jWeu
I wanted to buy a 1D Mark III, and I was not worried about the autofocus because even with its problems, it is considered the best one out there. The news agencies that switched to D3 generally did so because Nikon approached them with a sweet deal that they couldn’t resist. It was a money issue more than a autofocus issue.
However, its resale value is way down because of the problems, and I decided to get the less expensive 5D Mark II and wait for a 1D replacement. I like the 5D so much now, I may not move up unless there is a compelling reason. I would like the better focusing ability, but much of my focusing is manual in any event.
I see the 1D going full frame and maybe 12fps to fight the D3… as far as lenses go Canon offers what I need… Nikon is missing some… and finally I can’t see how jumping ships will make my photos better… sure, I will lose a lot of money changing my gear… that’s pointless.
any chance they are going to keep the 12mp sensor on the 500 with the 50D’s microlenses and video?
same
I really really hope that an XSi successor doesn’t up the megapixels even more… Unless they make the sensor bigger than APS-C ;)
John, I am glad yours works, but from my experience, I wouldn’t make that claim…
Also if it is still the best, then why is AP, SI, 2 Presswire, and a handful of others have all switched to the D3… Just saying
They already have the 15mp sensor for the 50D, and more MP sells more cameras. There is also economy of scale if they produce more 15 mp sensors, the cost per each can be less. That is why the 500D will have 15 mp.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some manual controls on the video, I also think they will update 5D to add more manual controls. It just takes time to iron out any bugs, and the feature is likely to appear on a new camera model first.
Hmm… That sounds worrisome. Have there been any ISO noise issues with the 50D due to cramming 15 megapixels into an APS-C sensor?
Over the 40D, I think the 50D has maybe 1/3 to 1/2 stop better noise control at higher ISO. However, this is probably more due to the DiGiC IV processor and less to do with the sensor. Canon did, however, improve the 50D sensor since they shoehorned another 5MP onto it and for all practical purposes, it’s as clean as the 40D 10MP sensor.
canon should come out with a new 35mm as nikon has done. the 1.6x entry level market needs something better than the outdated 35mm f/2. usm please?
no, it’s not worth every penny if you could theoretically get a $550 drebel that has basically all of the features of the 5D2 (including unsealed, creaking body) except without FF. FF isn’t worth an extra $2000 dollars. and this is coming from a 5D2 owner.
cheers.
my 28/1.8 is awesome
That’s why I am always a Rebel fan, regardless of # of L glasses and 1Ds bodies I own
and the size really is perfect as a walkaround
Stupid thought: If Canon releases a 24-70 IS, won’t they kill sales of the 24-105?
Evil thought: Maybe they made the 24-105 the kit lens with the 5D2 to clear out excess stock in advance of releasing a 24-70 IS…
you think that the 24-70IS will sell at the same price as the normal 24-70? No the 24-105 will stay especially if the 24-70IS comes out, it will be a cheaper alternative.
I think you’re right! This very useful post summarizes a lot of viewpoints:
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1019&message=30972634
Really? Mine was good in the centre but crap anywhere else. Canon can do so much better
I hope for a 15-70mm f/4 EFS lens. Not a chance, I think.
Two days till announcement :-)
Why has everyone stopped wishing for IS in primes?
All ?. Where did you get this info ?. Rumor or you’re hearing this from Nikon shooters ?.
Correct. Nikon IS chasing Canon photogs. I have many friends get offered from Nikon, to turn in their Canon gears with really sweet deals.
I think it’s because of very usable iso 3200 in cameras. I find no need for IS in my 35L or 85L, and that’s working in low light wedding conditions.
I wouldn’t hate it, but I also wouldn’t replace either of the above lenses just because they added IS.
I’ve had the D300, D350, D400 and they were great. Then I went to a 30D and have never wanted a Rebel again.
A jog wheel for XXXD series?
FORGET IT! That’s something that will never happen on this series of camera. Would nearly make the XXD series completely obsolete.
The only cameras with usable 3200 are FF. Even if you can obtain proper exposure at 3200, you have more latitude for post processing at lower ISOs. If canon added IS to their already stellar line of primes, they would really corner the market, especially for us wedding guys, without having to invent any sort of new technology.
Maybe they’re going to merge the 500D with the 60D and just keep the new 1000D-series? or maybe just cripple the frame rate or AF on the 500D? or pull a stunt and come out with a mirrorless “SLR”?
I worked at a NCAA basketball event this weekend with photographers from the US Presswire, AP, ICON. All of them shot Canon last year and all of them are shooting with Nikon right now. Believe me or not. Also know of at least 1 SI Photographer who is Nikon.
What I would like to have on 500D:
– Jog Wheel
– Save picture in RAW format in all programms
– Save picture in JPEG2000 format in all programms
The last two topics should enable the user to take profit of mor than 8 bit dynamic range even in non custom programms.
Regards
What you’re seeing was part of photogs, AFAIK none has completely changed. Canon still has the lead for long focal lengths.
Anyone has a link where the Canon announcements will be posted on feb 17th? Thanks!
2009 predictions.
2 new 1D3 replacements.
some details announced at PMA, but no full spefications until the end of the year, to try and stop some top end users migrating to the Nikon D3X.
Camera A – replacement for 1Ds-III
Using brand new CMOS 29.92mp sensor
4.7um gapless microlenses
14bit output mode.
effective resolution of the sensor is 26.8 mp.
other pixels used for CMOS rolling shutter ‘gelo’ fix.
1080p and higher resolution video shooting
New AF 48point system
ISO handling similar to 5D2
Shooting speed, 6.8fps full resolution, 10.2fps 16mp (sRAW sports mode)
Digic 4+ processor. New video encodeing co-processor
much improved video handling, such as full aperture & ISO control, professional Audio support.
variable video recording speed
CF UDMA-6
Camera B – studio model (out early 2010)
Using same 29.92mp sensor
16bit or 14bit output mode.
effective resolution of the sensor is over 28 mp.
NO VIDEO Support on this model.
New AF 48point system
ISO handling similar to 5D2
Shooting speed, same as model A in 14bit mode, slower in 16 bit mode.
Digic 4+ processor, CF UDMA-6 & CF SATA support
The big day has come! Does Canon have any event scheduled today where it might make the announcement? Or do people expect it to be via a press release? Any idea when we might hear the news?
Thanks
“much improved video handling, such as full aperture & ISO control, professional Audio support.
variable video recording speed”
annoying thing is they could give the 5dmk2 these things with about 10 lines of code. canon really is getting to be beyond a PITA with their holding back and crippling firmware for anything but 1 series. It’s not like those few things will get anyone to buy the 1 series who would not have anyway.
well i just noticed on the Canon USA website there is a SD780IS and SD960IS
they are both 12.1mp and shoot videos in HD (1280×720)
This is ONLY a prediction and not fact ;)
Is it too late for another prediction?
An updated ST-E2: the old one is antiquated, and doesn’t provide three groups like the master flashes can. Also, just maybe the conflict between the new Pocket Wizards and the 5DII is telling of some anticipated feature.
Just maybe. Or they can keep cashing in on that old glorified TV remote for $220.
That’s good to know, but I’m still biting my nails for a DSLR announcement ;)
Where did this quote come from ? And what camera is it referring to ?
It’s a quote from further up in this page, made by a user called Marlin who later clarified: “This is ONLY a prediction and not fact”
ohhhh- that’s not nice – pleaseeee no rumors !
Apparently the second TS-E will be 17 mm.
I currently own a EOS450, a Powershot and an iPhone (can hardly be considered a camera).
The single most important feature I want now is GPS hardware that enables geotagging. With the new version of Apple iPhoto 09 software, geotagging is a extremely attractive and valuable feature for me.
I would consider to upgrade both the DSLR and the Powershot to get this feature. I really hope Canon gets this. The iPhone has a bad camera but a new iPhone coming out this summer will probably have an upgraded camera (from 2MP to 4-6 maybe), if Canon doesn´t offer a GPS Powershot I will permanently ditch the small Canon in favor of the new iPhone.
That leaves the DSLR and I am willing to change to another brand if Canon doesn´t offer a GPS DSLR (I have used Canon since AE1, AV1, A1, T90 etc etc)…
Time is running out
No new Rebel at PMA 2009?
What do you think?
I red something about a press meeting in london (german news forum). This should take place today – it said.
So is there any chance that the 500D will be announced today?
I am waiting and waiting, but nothing happens…
damnit! ;) I thought about buying a 450D… but since I red the news a couple a days ago, I am excited about the new dslr.
Maybe the Price Watch page should be updated so it no longer says that the Rebel XSi/450D is about to get updated?