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Just a brief history lesson
Just showing the age of the current big white lenses, and how quickly they had been updated in the past.
As some have suggested, the new coating will probably be on any update. Possibly lighter weight? We'll have to see.
Canon Telephoto & Super Telephoto Release Dates
300mm
1987 – 300 f/2.8L
1999 – 300 f/2.8L IS
400mm
1991 – 400 f/2.8L
1996 – 400 f/2.8L II
1999 – 400 f/2.8L IS
500mm
1992 – 500 f/4.5L
1999 – 500 f/4L IS
600mm
1988 – 600 f/4L
1999 – 600 f/4L IS
What's coming
According a new source, this is what should be expected over the next 18 months from Canon as far as the pro segment goes.
Fall 2009
Camera Bodies
1D Mark IV
Lenses
300 f/2.8L IS II
400 f/2.8L IS II
Winter 2010
500 f/4L IS II
600 f/4L IS II
Fall 2010 (Photokina)
On a side note about Photokina. I'll commit to it now. Canon Rumors will be there!
1Ds Mark IV
35L II
24-70 II
New Flash
This is a CR1 rumor, but goes along with a few things I've heard and previously written about.
cr
If Canon chooses to update the 300 f/2.8L IS, the only likely change is an improved IS system – and a hefty price increase.
Is there any technical possibility for Canon to reduce the weight of 400 f/2.8L IS in a significant way? The same goes for 600 f/4L IS. How about carbon fiber tubes instead of metal?
What about the 60d?
1D and 1Ds, sure. 24-70 (IS??) and new flash, sure. What do the other ones need?
Carbon fiber might help, but I’m sure the vast bulk of the weight is the glass. DO might reduce that a bit, but otherwise I doubt there’s any way to cut weight while maintaining the aperture and optical quality (no one wants plastic lenses ;) )
Shame – what I’d like to see in respect to lenses isn’t there. :-(
Either a decently priced 4/400mm non-DO or a redone 100-400mm, preferably in the form of a 4/200-400mm.
However, after reading the new 1D4 specs rumour I don’t mind coming it already in 2009. ;-)
I can’t imagine how many Washingtons those new super tele primes are going to run. But I can guess:
300 – $5000
400 – $9000
500 – $7500
600 – $10000
“as far as pro segment goes” 60D will be semi-pro I guess.
The 60D is not in the “pro segment”. That said, chances we’ll see a 60D sometime in the next year is probably close to 100%.
Cant wait to see these rumors come true! The tele lenses will probably be updated with Better IS, sharpness was never a problem with these guys.
Dunno, better IS maybe? Aren’t the current 500 and 600 relatively recent though? I’m dubious about those.
a 400 5.6 IS would do it. Or a 500 5.6. But I don’t see these happening soon.
For me the best news is the 35L II.
I hope they bring out a 135L II as well.
Is the 50mm f/1.4 in the “pro” line? Or is it just the L-series?
You had a post a couple months ago about the 50mm f/1.4. Any recent rumors?
Shawn
I think that dropping the weight substantally is a reasonable wish, the 800mm lens has a greatly reduced weight.
I’d call XXD cameras Prosumer. The 5d is semi-pro.
The 50mm F:/1.4 is not a L, the 50mm F/1.2 is a “L” lens.
I think the roadmap is more of a wish list than reality. with newspapers in free fall, how many of the higher priced ones would sell? The money is in consumer lenses.
Why not a prosumer super telephoto like a 500mm f5.6? Does anyone know the reason why canon doesn’t make one of these for maybe $3,000?
Slap IS on a 400 5.6
Is that too much to ask?
Come on Canon.
I dont see Canon redoing all those big primes at the same time. Why would they do it? What’s wrong with those lens?
It’s knowned that even if they dont call it II, Canon incorporate modification in these lens as they mature. MKII version would mean the lens has changed a lot.
Because “prosumers” won’t spend $3K on a lens? There’s a market for a 500mm f/5.6 (Sigma’s had quite a bit of success there) but you need to keep it within spitting distance of $1K.
There’s no way any 500/5.6 will ever be close to $1K. The aperture is something like 90mm, considerably bigger than the 70-odd mm apertures of $1-2K lenses such as the 300/4, 400/5.6, 100-400 and 70-200/2.8. It’s nearly the size of the $4000 300/2.8. That being said, a 500/5.6 would cost somewhere between $2500 and $3K. I’m pretty sure there would be a whole lot of “Prosumers” lined up for one if it costs $2500; look how many of them are paying the big $$$ for the 500/4. I’d say there’s probably more wealthly doctors and lawyers who have a taste for birding that own the big 500 than working Pros.
BTW, Sigma never produced a 500/5.6, only an excellent 500/4.5 and a couple of so-so zooms with a 500/6.3 long end.
whatever they do, for the moment I don’t need any gear at all, practicing with my 30D is far enough
Bigma is actually 465mm f/6.3 on the tele end, but it does zoom out all the way to 50mm on the wide end. Sigma also makes a decent 500mm f/4.5 lens, but this one sells not a lot cheaper than the Canon 500mm f/4L IS.
A 500mm f/5.6L IS would be a decent seller even at $2K, especially since the new Canon DSLRs have quite decent noise performance at relatively high ISO settings…
I’d bet Canon’s new coatings (see the 24/1.4II) could be a key upgrade in the new lenses.
I’d be deathly afraid of carbon-fiber lenses. An attack by a nail or other pointy object and that lens is done. Worse, a minor impact could cause a light (and dust/water) leak that otherwise wouldn’t wreck the lens.
where is the 60D in the line up for this year !! come one man !
I thought the 24-70 II would be sooner
I would really like that lens sharper than current, and with Macro capability and IS would be really great.
+1
Why are people so hang up about those high-end lenses that very few pros will buy anyway. I’d like to see a new line of fast (f/1.8) primes such as 22, 32 (so on 1.6 crop cameras you get the “standard†35, 50mm lenses), just like the nifty-fifty.
The 24-70 2.8 L already has some macro capabilities but 1:1 would be great – wide open the IQ is stunning on close focus subjects and my version is way sharp – great lens.
if Canon’s stock of lens’ are low and they have to retool to produce more…
I don’t think it would be vary hard or expensive for Canon to update the IS and lens coatings while they’re at it.
Also, possibly altering components in the optical path for better resolution & dynamic range with less distortion.
all to help combat the effect of high mega-pixel bodies where they can out resolve the lens.
EF-S primes? doubt it.
Canon Telephoto & Super Telephoto Release Dates
300mm
1987 – 300 f/2.8L
1999 – 300 f/2.8L IS
(12 years between updates)
400mm
1991 – 400 f/2.8L
1996 – 400 f/2.8L IS
(5 years between updates)
500mm
1992 – 500 f/4.5L
1999 – 500 f/4L IS
(7 years between updates)
600mm
1988 – 600 f/4L
1999 – 600 f/4L IS
(11 years between updates)
these are all 10 years or older. I don’t see any reason not to update them.
“Michal Says:
Why are people so hang up about those high-end lenses that very few pros will buy anyway.”
simple…
bragging rights.
&
I don’t know about you, but I’d prefer to photograph
a wild ________(insert name of man eating beast of your choice.(Lions, & Tigers, & Bears!! oh my))
with a 400mm – 1000mm prime vs. a 22mm. though the 22 would produce a remarkable picture.(don’t feed the wildlife!!!)
that said, I don’t own anything longer than 200mm as I’m waiting for updates to the 100-400mm.
DR is a sensor property
Just want to point out that the 400mm f/2.8L IS was released in 1999. The 400mm f/2.8L II was released in 1996. The original EF 400mm f/2.8L was released in 1991. In any case, all of the current big tele lenses are about 10 years old and could stand for updating to improve IS, trim some fat, improve the optics, etc (not that the current ones need much improvement). I’ve used the 200 f/2 and 300 2.8 IS side by side and it’s impressive how much better the IS in the 200 operates. And as others have mentioned, it will be a good reason for Canon to “realign” pricing to 2009 levels. What the lenses are selling for now, I believe, is quite a bit less than 1999 dollars adjusted for inflation. I definitely paid more for the 400 2.8 MkI in 1993 dollars and the MkII in 1997 dollars than the IS version sells for now.
I rather see a 200-500/f5.6L IS or a 100-400/f4L IS and be able to use a 1.4x converter. Sigma missed the boat in my view by not making their 150-500 an straight f/5.6 EX lens. No matter that it would be a bit dearer, it still be lot’s cheaper than their stupid 200-500/f2.8.
I didn’t say anything about EF-S mount just about using them on sub-FF sensor cameras.
Want some f/1.0 and weight below 100g on top of that? Come on, please do a short reality check.
*If* a II-version of the 2.8/24-70 is coming, I hope it mainly improves sharpness, especially wide open – I agree with you on that.
But as I mentioned in previous discussions, I’d hate to see IS in it (at least at the cost of reduced IQ).
I although think that extended macro capabilities would have a negative effect on overall IQ. If you want real macro capabilities, there are a lot of good macro lenses out there, e.g. the Sigma 2.8/150.
Well there already is the 60/2.8 EF-S…
But of course, EF-S users tend to prefer zoom lenses.
we need a new 500mm 2.8L IS for ff 1d IV
but i really hope better ISO performace and new 24-70 IS that telephotos
It really depends if the new 1D4/5 has a dynamic frame crop or not. It would be very nice to be able to select a 1x, 1.3x or 1.6x crop on the fly.
I’m not too shure about a 24-70/2.8 II. Now that Canon have ironed out the QA issues, it’s a fine lens and sharp to boot. At least my copy is.
I would guess that the 35IIL would benefit from the new anti-flare coatings and weather sealing…plus the ubiqitous price hike.
All the big tele’s need at least an IS update. The new 4-5 stop IS units need to be rolled out across the board. A weight reduced 500 and 400 would be a big help too.
I would also guess that the new 1D4 would be full frame, which would make the current 5DII less widely used. I’d love to have a 1D4 for weddings.
I’m really surprised that there’s no 100-400, 400 f5.6 and 300 4 on the list, but I guess that’s for 2012
A 200-400 f4 would be a completely different thing than the current 100-400. To get f4, it would need a whopping 100+mm front element, will probably weigh in at around 3-5 kilos, and probably cost 5000€.
I’d rather have a 100-400 II 4-5.6, with an updated IS, weather sealing, which will probably enforce a normal “twist” zoom design instead of push-pull. And if they keep it below the 1500€ barrier, I would eventually buy one, I guess.
But given that the current one is already around 1400€, a replacement will probably end up somewhere close to 2000€.
You would probably have a hard time recovering the memory card with that 22’s pictur eon it…. ;-)
I am also waiting for a 100-400 Mk2… I know if I buy the old one now, the Mk2 will be released in fall.
You say
“I’ve used the 200 f/2 and 300 2.8 IS side by side and it’s impressive how much better the IS in the 200 operates. ”
Have you ever used the 70-200 f4 IS?
If so, how does its IS compare to the other two? Cause I find the 70-200’s IS unit to be — at least subjectively — inferior to the recent “VC” implementation found in Tamron’s 280-300 VC.
“A 200-400 f4 would be a completely different thing than the current 100-400”
I know. But that wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. :-)
The 4/200-400 is one of two lenses I envy the Nikon crowd for. (The other one’s the 2.8/12-24.)
OK, maybe a 4/200-400 in *addition* to a 4.5-5.6/100-400 II would be fine. ;-)
However, you might be right on both price estimates. :-/
What problem? It’d pass right through!
Okay, lets agree that we want both a new 100-400 AND a 200-400, for 1500€ and 3000€, respectively. ;-)
get ready to add 600 dollars each…
I really think both of these lenses are just fine…
own both and love em. And to be honest the 24 1.4 II has been a big disappointment.
the 24-70 should get IS… mostly for people on cropped sensor.
that would sell so well, it would be a bit heavier but i think it would be a killer seller
the problem of making it 1:1 macro is that you loose focus accuracy on the longer range, where most people use it
“Ruggedized” SD/CF cards? ;-)
I see no updates in 18 months based on this info for 5D Mk II. Is that because it is not a “Pro Camera”, do we expect any updates on 5D MK II? I am willing to hold out till FEB 2010, but want to buy something Full Frame by then (5D MK II or follow on).
I don’t think IS will be on 24-70. We just keep dreaming…………………………..
Why update lenses that are out performing everything else? Give us a 400 we can afford with IS, or a 500, or update the 100-400… would sell like buggery….would seem Canon are concentrating on very highend stuff or very low end stuff (200 f2, 800 5.6, TS-e lens, 18-200, any number of plastic bodied cameras)…the rest of us can just keep waiting.
Why would you expect any updates? The 5D was getting rather old when they released the 5D Mark II. Do you think they’ll release a 5D Mark III within a year? Doubt it. If you want Canon full-frame, you have two choices, and rumor mill says maybe a third coming up this fall. If you want something in the sub-$3000 price range, you have one choice probably for the next 2+ years.
Because they’re always locked in the death roll with NIkon about having the better performing pro line and the cheapest most feature rich entry line. The stuff in the middle gets a little lost, but gets lots of spill-over benefits from both. Besides, a lot of lens updates are to improve the ‘infrastructure’ for later higher resolution camera bodies.
BTW have you tried the 300 f/4L IS with a 1.4x converter? I found it a very good combo, and that gives you your 400 with IS that’s affordable, and a shorter faster lens when you want it too.
I agree that an updated 100-400 is necessary, its seriously like the oldest IS lens, and it (both the optics, which still aren’t bad, and the IS shows it)
The update history is meaningless.
You might not see a reason to not update those lenses, but Canon probably does. Updating costs money which need to be recovered through sales. If the projected sales do not look profitable there will be no update – how many owners of $3k+ lenses do you think are willing to sell their already wonderful “old” lens to update just for the sake of it?
And don’t hold your breath for the 100-400 update ;)
Yeah, we sure need a $30k lens weighing >30 pounds with that 1dIV.
A LOT of pros may update their 400 2.8 or 600 f4 if they’re 4 lbs lighter and they carry them every weekend at fooball and baseball games
500mm clean could perhaps go for 2K before the price rises of this year, but no more. Canon would at least try to get 2.5K for it, or worse. Hmmm, i wonder, who would pay say 500-800 extra for a 500/5.6 DO? On the 70-300 it’s worthless, the lens becomes heavier, wider, and only a few mils shorter. The 400 DO is way overpriced, not a good deal as well, but at least it’s a technical advantage. From 400mm and on it’s a viable technique. I at least would seriously consider it. (oh, and please use the fast zoom of the 400/5.6, then you have a great spotterlens)
I agree, this would be fantastic
5D II has killed ef-s I’d doubt that APS-C has much more lifespan than a couple of years from now.
(in terms of new glass and bodies not in actual use)
And it makes sense for SLR’s to all be based on a 35mm standard once again.
If Canon has developed some new wiz bang deluxe lens coating then it make sense to upgrade the entire line of big lenses.
Somewhere on the product assembly line you have to make the decision to cut over to the new lens coating and after you make the change on just one lens product sales will start to drop on the entire product line because no one wants to get caught with yesterday’s technology. If the new IS system in the 200mm f2.0 is that good then might as well do it as a package for each lens. If they learned something about reducing weight on making the 800mm then throw that in too.
I’ve been watching the camera pits at the NBA playoffs and all last fall during the NFL season and the white/black lens ratio seems to have remained the same since the Dark Side upgraded its product line. That said Canon can’t just sit there an expect it’s customers not to jump ship if they don’t reply by offering something equal to or better then the Dark Side real soon.
An upgraded package of lenses along with a new camera body that meets or surpasses the competition is smart business……if anyone has any money left by next fall.
you do realize thats exactly what people said when the original 5d came out?
I doubt APS-C will go away until FF CMOS production is dirt cheap.
Actually I have the 300 2.8 and am very happy, but I would like to have 400mm IS prime for when travelling, and not carrying the 300mm lump.
Still nothing regarding the replacement of the current 400/5.6, or a new 500/5.6 ….
Canon does not care at all about the prosummers category. I am fed up….
I want a 24-70 II with IS. I do not care if it makes this lens a tad heavier or the same weight. This is an awesome lens and IS would be great in situations where on cannot use a tripod.
Sign me up for the 35L II as well — as the I is a bit soft at 1.4
I will buy the 24-70 II IS the day it is available, and I will also be getting the 1Ds4 as well. I was wishing for Fall this year for their releases but it is what it is.
I have the 1Ds2 and just didn’t think the 1Ds3 had enough upgrades to make me purchase. Seeing what the 5D2 received, I could guess at what the 1Ds4 would at least have and that is enough for me to consider it a done deal.
M
+2
werent there news about a 17-40II?
Neither does Nikon!. Look at how long the prosumers need to wait for a AF-S 300/f4 VR or a AF-S 80-400/f4.5-5.6 VR. Nikon has replaced their top of the line 300,400 and 500 several times over a short time.
Make that a 15-40 or even better a 15-50/f4 and i’ll be happy.
does anyone know what when the 580EX III is going to come out? Its the oldest speedlite in canon’s arsenal. But the most expensive. Is it by any chance the one that’s going to be released this fall?
lol.
yes make it an ultra-wide to normal, and see it has decent performance or low cost.
I don’t think a redone 17-40 is due for some time, but it might come out with/a little after the 35/1.4 II
I doubt it. it’s still less than 3 years old, and they’re’s not a lot to do to it.
power
200mm zoom
unless canon wants to start jacking some of the nikon flash niceties, included color gels and diffusion dome, etc…
I’ll cast a vote for a super fast prime in the 35-85mm range. Give the 50mm f1.2 or the 85mm f1.2 the AF and IS of the 200mm f2 and I can die happy.
Basically I want “white” to make an appearance below 100mm. Anyone else think that will ever happen.
no.
they limit the white to lenses longer than 135mm, but a lot of the primes are great, fast aperture and focus, just no IS, maybe the 135mm f/2L USM update will have IS.
I’ve got both the 85 and 50 I mentioned and unfortunately neither has AF that’s up to shooting sports (in my case cycling road races)
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I doubt it. it’s still less than 3 years old, and they’re’s not a lot to do to it.