Canon has released their corporate strategy for the next few years. With the challenges over the last few years, Canon seems to have itself in a really good place and ready to grow again.
Last year, the Imaging Group achieved sales and profit growth and a significant improvement in profitability.
As for cameras, our mirrorless camera market share remained stable thanks to our strong market reputation We also posted strong sales of new products. Through this, our camera business is supporting earnings as a mainstay of Imaging.
Our future growth strategy is to create new businesses while maintaining high profitability in existing ones.
With EOS R and other existing products, we will create new markets and businesses by offering attractive products that anticipate market demands, strengthen our profit structure, activate group synergies, and deliver unprecedented value through products and solutions.
And we aim to achieve sales of 1 trillion yen in the Imaging Group in 2025.
This year, we expect the global market for interchangeable lens cameras to be around 5.5 to 6 million units and more than 70 of this to be mirrorless cameras.
This year as well, we expect to maintain our No 1 share of the interchangeable lens camera market and at the same time aim to No 1 in mirrorless cameras as sub segment as well. In addition to market share, we will also work to expand sales volume of the EOS R System itself through three measures.
The first is “enhancing the EOS R System To this end, we will expand our lineup of cameras and lenses to meet the diverse needs of our customers.
Moreover, in recent years, the demographic of video oriented users, such as video creators, media users, and SNS users, is thick and growing. We aim to expand the scale of the R system by including functions and performance that respond to user requests not only for still images but also for videos.
Also, the world of imaging is changing from 2 D to 3 D to XR In anticipation of these future demands, we will also focus on the deployment of EOS VR systems and work to expand awareness of VR, improve the usability of apps and software, and create an environment where users can enjoy VR images.
https://global.canon/en/ir/conference/pdf/housin2023ima-e-note.pdf
You can see the official presentation material here and here.
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So they're predicting 30% of ILC sales this year to be DSLRs. That's a big drop, but still higher than I would expect. I find it surprising that people are still buying DSLRs in that sort of quantity, given that Canon is pushing the RF system so heavily.
They sell because entry level DSLR kits are still cheaper than entry level MILC kits.
I woud not be surprised that MILC + DSLR + P&S = <7 million global market
Last Canon financial report had them at approximately 48% of that global market. Sony-branded cameras are at a distant 2nd but any digital camera brand with a Sony MF, FF or APS-C image sensor is at parity with Canon's 48%.
At 30% that would be less than 900 thousand Canon DSLR bodies globally for 2023.
Buyers may prefer DSLR bodies because of price or do not want any major changes to the very last moment.
Like say you have a stockpile of CompactFlash (CF) cards and memory card readers. You only need CFast cards if you want faster than 167MB/s writes for higher bitrate 4K/8K resolution video & higher continuous FPS at a higher MP stills.
The very last bodies that uses them are the 5D Mark IV & 1D X Mark II that both came out in 2016.
As early as 2018 some countries have already stopped ordering EF & F system out of concerns of having non-moving inventory. Whatever they have in inventory by 2018 is the last orders they made before the announced transition.
On BHPhoto Nikon & Pentax do not offer DSLRs that uses CF card slots anymore. They also have these many DSLR bodies per brand
- 8 Canon
- 7 Nikon
- 6 Pentax
Canon stated in the past that so long as there are economic orders for EF bodies/lens/accessories they will continue to produce them.
I could lament on the sad state of millennials’ mathematical abilities. You might want to bust out a calculator and try multiplying 6 million by 0.3.
I think the percentage of people who already have a DSLR, and choose to get another DSLR as an upgrade is pretty low. Upgraders want better specifications all round, and that means getting a MILC - and Canon have made that transition very easy due to the ability to use EF lenses on RF cameras, without loss of AF performance.
The vast majority of DSLR purchasers these days are probably novices looking for an affordable way into photography, and such folk are typically heavily influenced by advertising and influencers, who are almost exclusively promoting MILCS. So it surprises me that peer pressure from MILC users, and heavy promotion of MILCs by Canon, Nikon and Sony, hasn't led to a more rapid and severe collapse in demand for DSLRs.
Going forward I expect consumer RF lenses to make up more of of Canon's releases. They prioritized the L lenses as the ILC market has become more non-consumer.
I presented some economic reasons why those users do not upgrade. They do not treat them like toys but like toasters or refrigerators. Use until it cannot be economically repaired. Replace with whatever is the equivalent or bargain.
Digital camera market has dropped from a peak of nearly 121.5 million in 2010 to a little over 8 million last year. We are going back to year 1999 levels.
Last digital camera body/lens/accessory I bought was in 2015. I was offered a sweet deal for a R5 but I paused and reflected why I'd buy one when the last time I picked up a camera was in 2018. Naturally this does not cover people here but for many non-CR users that's how they make the decision to buy.
That 2015 body functions perfectly. I do not see a reason to upgrade if you're just doing people photography and the ocassional bird photo that will only get stolen by eNviroNMentalist and scope-bound bIrdWatChErs.
Put another way there are 22,030 user accounts on CR. I'd bet good money many of them are inactive because they've died or like me... have not bought any RF bodies yet.
EOS Rebel T7 w/ kit lens $399
EOS Rebel T100 w/ kit lens $399.
How very very odd.
IIRC from 2018-2022 RF lenses was >70% RF L & <30% RF non-L.
5 years in we are at the midpoint.
Going forward I could see half and half RF L & non-L. Then the tail-end nearing year 2028 >70% RF non-L & <30% RF L.
RF tiltshift will probably start appearing around year 2028.
The releases will be predicated on demand and how quickly inventory can move. Why start producing any lens with little demand or very thin margins.
If you look at my post history I was absent for a few years.
There are members here who are very rude for no other purpose of being rude. Does not stop them from participating.
Forward-thinking companies don't only follow demand, they also *create* demand.
Hence 8K was a major selling point for the R5, and the twin fish-eye was designed to create a new genre of photography.
Ideally but based on the RF lens releases so far they're catering to actual demand.
Like, no big surprise that f/2.8 & f/4.0 ultra wide, standard and tele photo zooms came out within the 1st 5 years of RF lens while there are zero tilt shifts.
No big surprise that 400/2.8 & 600/4.0 came out before 800/5.6 & 1200/8.0.
I best you by just putting them on ignore.
Although I'd prefer if there was an option to block so you don't get the warning that "ignored user replied". It just reminds you that someone rude is still there.
So long as there is demand Canon will produce it. Those buying that Rebel probably never heard of CR much less have a user account here.
On BHPhoto I've observed that the "Best Seller" changes when you click on it and reselect it again.
Before reselecting "Best Seller"
After resellecting "Best Seller"