Canon Rules the Camera Landscape

[roby17269]

Canon owns the DLSR market which others abandoned or were never in it.
The volume went down ~15% YoY which isn't bad as there hasn't been a new body or EF lens for a very long time.
Even if the 5Div and 1Dxiii are still available new, the volume must be very small now.
"Disappearing fast" isn't an issue when it is pure cash cow mode with zero R&D being spent.
Canon will milk it until it doesn't last any more and clearly many buyers are very cost conscious. Are the figures broken down into regions? I am guessing that Asia/India etc buyers may still be selling DLSRs to maximise their profit commercially and still look like "professional" photographers rather than using phones.

We were talking in the context of those diagrams and if Canon is sensitive to market share, the DSLR market shrinking fast is an issue. That cash cow will not be milkable for long.
The real question is whether the growing sales of RF can pick up the slack. So far it seems they are, barely.

 

[Del Paso]

While I agree that it is material, I still think that that is true for a small % of the camera buying population, which is a tiny % of humanity.
Stats some years ago said that people buying ILCs added on average 1.7 lenses to their camera. This was mostly driven by people buying entry-level DSLRs with 2-zooms kits.
I think I read recently that the average had not significantly moved up from 1.7

If we accept that, it means that while we care deeply about lens choices (I know I do!), we are a niche in a niche. So even if Canon annoys every CR forum dweller enough to switch, we would not register on those graphs.

And, if those 1,7 lenses are OEMs, profits will certainly be higher than gains from 1,7 3rd. party licenses...

 

[KirkD]

Ironically n the salespersons at BH..in the CANON booth complain about it.

Every single week customers are reminded that they are in canon lens jail.

I'm an inmate in that jail. I like my cell but I am very frustrated at being confined to it.

 

[David - Sydney]

Oh gee I love nuanced conversations that don't strawman what someone is saying.

The road is long until Canon is doomed, but I wouldn't be letting go the steering wheel if I were Canon. In 10 years the landscape can change dramatically

Doomed is a running joke since Sony first entered the market over a decade ago.
The market will change again within the next 10 years. Canon has no choice but to pivot and innovate to stay in business. So far they have shown that they can albeit later than buyers would have liked

 

[David - Sydney]

Canon is possibly having an Intel moment and as I mentioned above, while it isn't a cause for concern immediately, it can shift the industry over a long-term timeframe.

Intel’s moment is the US government taking 10% equity with no seat on the board

 

[David - Sydney]

Chinese lenses already exist, their quality getting better and better. Would it be financially risky to select a standard Chinese bayonet mount for which a body could easily be developed by several companies? Definitely not!

Auto focus capabilities is still to come but they have joined the L alliance for the mount which makes sense. I am interested in the AstrHori 6mm at the moment

Look at the Chinese auto industry. A few years ago, laughed at. And now???

Agreed and they have sown up the EV market due to subsidies and battery capability/ capacity. I worked Shanghai 25 years ago in the telco sector when VW etc transferred technology for the possibility of volume and profits from the local market. They haven’t mastered extracting profit out of China.

Some great names could disappear within the next decade (Panasonic, Olympus/OM , unless they succeed in what I'd call the "Apple way".

They will disappear or be merged into canon or Nikon or just have a Kodak experience

Edit: Chinese camera sensors? Just a matter of time! They have the skills, the equipment, the people.

Yes for sure for phones /drones etc but is it profitable or strategic for full frame? I’m not convinced. Computational photography is more likely I think

 

[David - Sydney]

I wouldn't be surprised of some forced mergers at the government level for some of these, if anything. But yes you are completely correct in your analysis. That's why I am saying, Canon should start pushing some boundaries because they can afford to.

They have. They will

Look at the Japanese auto industry how it was 20-30 years ago and today. Nissan + Honda + Mitsubishi merger is on the books. Why couldn't this happen in other aspects? This is not the time for Canon to coast

Canon waited for the mirrorless to be inevitable before moving. The R/RP weren’t ground breaking vs the R5/R6 were.
But going back further in Japanese history post WW2 when US support started the local auto industry. They then dominated in the low end until moving higher with better quality etc. Korea was next and now China. India will probably follow China.

 

[David - Sydney]

We were talking in the context of those diagrams and if Canon is sensitive to market share, the DSLR market shrinking fast is an issue. That cash cow will not be milkable for long.
The real question is whether the growing sales of RF can pick up the slack. So far it seems they are, barely.

Cash cow will be milkable for few years to come. The question is not whether canon needs to be dramatically dominate in market share or would be content to be a joint or narrow market share leader without dlsr.
Avoiding ff competition from 3rd parties keeps profits in house even with lower volumes.

The biggest question for canon is whether new sales drop sufficiently because of 3rd party ff lenses or lose those sales and keep profits.
Canon is doing what is best for canon and not necessarily what is the cheapest for buyers

 

[Quack]

If you look at Overall Shipments, note the narrowing gap between Canon and Sony. Sony, Nikon, and Fujifilm are all trending up, but Canon has a slight trend down. I'm not sure why this is, but of all the start-up pro photographers I personally know, none of them are going with Canon and their number one reason is the lack of third-party, full frame lenses, such as Sigma. I'm very heavily invested in mirrorless Canon equipment but in my conversations with photographers starting professional work, I now recommend Sony or Nikon, solely for the lack of of third party, full-frame lenses for Canon. I follow a few YouTube landscape photographers. In the last two years, almost all of the Canon DSLR YouTube influencers I have followed have now switched to Sony or Nikon. These people are significant influencers. The consequences of this are not large to start with - almost flat in the short term, but when they stay flat or start trending downward, there can be an accelerating effect, resulting in an increasing narrowing of the gap as we see in that graph. I gave Canon a two-year grace period with the expectation that they need to get their new RF lenses up and running and not let the competition in too soon. But that grace period is long gone now. I've been a Canon user since the 80's when I purchases my first F1, but even though I'll still be with Canon for the long haul, thanks to being so heavily invested in their new RF cameras and lenses, I have been recommending to all the up and coming pros or semi-pros to look at either Sony or Nikon and not to make the same mistake I have made re. this imaginary 'grace period'. I think Canon equipment is absolutely first class, but they need to drop their protectionism when it comes to full frame RF lenses. In the meantime, I'm praying they release a 14mm or 15mm f1.4 for night scapes.

Interesting, but I seriously doubt the lack of 3rd party lenses impacts pro photographers. Amateurs and enthusiasts, yes, Pros? Not likely, in my opinion. What it does sound like is that your personal bias against Canon not allowing 3rd party AF lenses, completely distorts your opinion making it irrelevant. Sorry, that's what it sounds like.

 

[Richard CR]

I think you've misinterpreted the graphs. As Devon Jones points out, the "Overall Shipments" graph isn't really relevant, because that includes DSLRs for which Sony has no involvement (and for which shipments have been falling).

it should be relevant though, how Canon continues to executive a pivot from DLSR's to mirrorless is still important at least to Canon as they haven't dropped DSLR's in all markets completely yet.

Nikon on the other hand simply stopped making and shipping them, and if I had to argue that may be a reason why they have literally rolled over and died. while they may be narrowing the gap - they will be competing with sony and canon by 2060 then

 

[Richard CR]

Interesting, but I seriously doubt the lack of 3rd party lenses impacts pro photographers. Amateurs and enthusiasts, yes, Pros? Not likely, in my opinion. What it does sound like is that your personal bias against Canon not allowing 3rd party AF lenses, completely distorts your opinion making it irrelevant. Sorry, that's what it sounds like.

Sure, but forcing those amateurs and enthusiasts to the dark side isn't going to do Canon any favors in the short to long term either.

That being said, Canon has done a remarkable job of pivoting off of the EF and EOS-M mount, so credit where credit is due - they may actualy know what they are doing

 

[John Wilde]

Nikon has openly stated that they're no longer in the business of DSLRs or in entry level cameras.

It's only one country (Japan) but last month on BCNRetail the best selling Nikon cameras were the Z50 II, Z 30, and Z fc.

 

[Del Paso]

They have. They will

Canon waited for the mirrorless to be inevitable before moving. The R/RP weren’t ground breaking vs the R5/R6 were.
But going back further in Japanese history post WW2 when US support started the local auto industry. They then dominated in the low end until moving higher with better quality etc. Korea was next and now China. India will probably follow China.

I can still remember, when I was working in the auto industry, my warnings at engineering students making fun of Japanese, Korean, then Chinese cars.
They were so convinced nobody could ever attain the level of Glorious German Auto Industry. I recall telling them to go to a museum, to look at Chinese art and craft, so they'd understand which civilisation they were making fun of.
Then came the Lexus; the Nissan Z, all the Hyundais etc...
I guess they've understood now.

 

[EricN]

I can still remember, when I was working in the auto industry, my warnings at engineering students making fun of Japanese, Korean, then Chinese cars.
They were so convinced nobody could ever attain the level of Glorious German Auto Industry. I recall telling them to go to a museum, to look at Chinese art and craft, so they'd understand which civilisation they were making fun of.
Then came the Lexus; the Nissan Z, all the Hyundays etc...
I guess they've understood now.

Could Egypt begin a resurgence?

 

[Del Paso]

Could Egypt begin a resurgence?

Yes, sure!
It's already happening. Didn't you see the movie "The return of the mummy"?

 

[roby17269]

Cash cow will be milkable for few years to come. The question is not whether canon needs to be dramatically dominate in market share or would be content to be a joint or narrow market share leader without dlsr.
Avoiding ff competition from 3rd parties keeps profits in house even with lower volumes.

The biggest question for canon is whether new sales drop sufficiently because of 3rd party ff lenses or lose those sales and keep profits.
Canon is doing what is best for canon and not necessarily what is the cheapest for buyers

I disagree that the cow will be milkable for years, unless we call milking it also selling 10's of thousands (i.e. almost nothing) per year. I think that is coming very soon.
Canon may not be content with the DSLRs disappearing, but that's happening soon unless they decide to invest again in developing EF, which I think is an impossibility.

Even if I find it vexing, as mentioned elsewhere I also think that the people that would care for more lens choices are a small minority. So I do not have much hope that Canon will change their current stance, although I wish they did

 

[justaCanonuser]

Canon has patent applications for triple layer sensor(s). See: https://www.canonrumors.com/canon-patent-application-triple-layer-high-speed-stacked-sensor/ and https://www.canonrumors.com/canon-patent-application-improving-stacked-sensors/

Question is whether such designs really make it into the market. Canon produces a lot of patents that finally aren't used commercially. But that's a good sign for a healthy tech company, since always a small share of innovations only are successful. I learned that from a German professor for tech history, who has specialized on the history of technical flops.

I think Canon has a really smart approach to innovation, a very Japanese philosophy like Kyūdō, the Japanese art of archery: you wait and watch patiently until moment comes to act - and then very quickly, like in an explosion.

 

[justaCanonuser]

I join in a big thank you, Richard from CR, for this illustrative article. Yes, as we all know, because we read that prophecy here and elsewhere since many years: Canon is doomed!

That said, I do hope that Nikon makes it, as an Ex-Nikonian back in the film days.

Currently I can again compare actual Canon with Nikon gear: my wife has upgraded her gear to Nikon's gorgeous light, compact, and sharp 600mm f/6.3 lens + the 1.4x TC (also very good), and a Z5 II body with the latest AI trained subject detection software. Shooting side by side with my R7 and my EF 600mm III (+ TC), the Z5 II focuses much less reliable, despite it even offers a specialized "bird tracking" mode. One drawback is that eye recognition can't be switched on or off in addition to a basic subject detection. So, if e.g. a bird sits in an environment with bright spots or swims on water with bright reflections on ripples, the Z5 II's system gets easily distracted in such settings, in the R7 I can switch off eye detection and get nonetheless a sharp bird's head. Plus, just to stay with birds as an example, the R7 is even able to stick with a bird's head when the bird turns away and shows its neck. The Z5 II frequently loses track and focuses on something in the background. Another lack of feature really irritates me: other than e.g. the Z8, the Z5 II has no sensor protection, so if one wants to change a lense in the wilderness one really risks to get dirt on the exposed sensor. So, Nikon crippled an otherwise quite capable camera for wildlife. The Z5 II isn't the fastest body and has only 24 MP, but its low light capabilities are impressive and the colors right out of the camera look very good (what wasn't always typical for digital Nikons in earlier years).

Plus, Nikon has currently no APS-C camera that is up to the R7 and a real successor to the D500. The Z 50 II features Nikon's latest object detection, but has an aged mediocre sensor. In particular in that crop sensor segment, Nikon has really to improve its offerings. If the do it - and I am sure they can - it will also help them to regain market shares.

 

[justaCanonuser]

I can still remember, when I was working in the auto industry, my warnings at engineering students making fun of Japanese, Korean, then Chinese cars.
They were so convinced nobody could ever attain the level of Glorious German Auto Industry. I recall telling them to go to a museum, to look at Chinese art and craft, so they'd understand which civilisation they were making fun of.
Then came the Lexus; the Nissan Z, all the Hyundais etc...
I guess they've understood now.

Same with Germany's once leading camera industry. Leitz (Leica) even developed together with Minolta the original phase detection AF system. But then Leitz's management decided to leave all patents to Minolta, because "real" photographers won't use AF. History proved that this was a completely wrong decision, and Leica lost nearly all of its once big share of the pro and enthusiasts market, and their otherwise so well made R system was banned into a niche.

Only a few pro photographers remained loyal to Leica btw. One example is the German wildlife photographer Norbert Rosing, who was famous in particular for his ice bear images he shot for the National Geographic magazine. He used (I think still uses) a Leica R system:

 

[John Wilde]

We were talking in the context of those diagrams and if Canon is sensitive to market share, the DSLR market shrinking fast is an issue. That cash cow will not be milkable for long.

(CIPA) In Jan-July camera production 12,902,281 yen of DSLRs were produced, compared to 235,416,102 yen of mirrorless, so DSLRs are more an emaciated cow than a cash cow.