My guess: 3 1/2 years until summer olympics Paris 2024 as Tokyo 2020/21 will be canceled because of COVID-19.
As for winter games I have hope for winter 2022 if the vaccines can be distributed fast enough...
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Quad-Pixel AF and a global shutter coming in 2021?
- Thread starter Canon Rumors
- Start date
As for winter games I have hope for winter 2022 if the vaccines can be distributed fast enough...
Global shutter is truly exciting news. May be I should wait for this a skip the R5 all together. I would definitely need 40+ MP purely for cropping wildlife pics. 20 something will not cut it for me. Personally I do not care about 8k if this camera did sharp 4k60p that as good as 4k HQ mode in the R5 without crop (obviously there is aspect ratio crop) that would be plenty. If the above said happens Sony will be doomed 
... just kidding. The real loser so far is Nikon. Hopefully they turn around too. We definitely need competition otherwise Canon will become lame duck again like they were between 2014 till 2019.
... just kidding. The real loser so far is Nikon. Hopefully they turn around too. We definitely need competition otherwise Canon will become lame duck again like they were between 2014 till 2019.
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With a quad pixel sensor, a 20 MP sensor is sending 80 MP worth of data to the processor, a 30 MP would be possible, but quad pixel is not a variant of a R5 sensor unless it has quad pixel already there. A global shutter requires memory for each pixel, so a layered sensor would be likely to do all of that. It would bump up the cost. The heat generated from all that is a issue as well, so 8K seems unlikely.
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Was my first thought after seeing QPAF & global shutter! I am not shure if the right cam for me is the R6 or the R5 but the price difference isn't that vast ( if you have the money ) and R5 gives you more MPix which might be good for large prints or stonger cropping.Global shutter is truly exciting news. May be I should wait for this a skip the R5 all together. I would definitely need 40+ MP purely for cropping wildlife pics. 20 something will not cut it for me. Personally I do not care about 8k if this camera did sharp 4k60p that as good as 4k HQ mode in the R5 without crop (obviously there is aspect ratio crop) that would be plenty. If the above said happens Sony will be doomed
DPAF drove me nuts in some situation so I had to tilt the camera a little bit to help AF but that is no good idea for movies during tracking ... so QPAF is very welcome to make AF just that bit more effective.
Global shutter would be very welcome for video - I really hate those subtle artifacts which destroy the natural apearance of movies ...
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Reason why I do not believe why a 1-Series MILC will come out in 2021 as of this writing
- Canon Inc is a for profit company that will produce products in line with customers needs/wants so long as it is profitable
- Customers of the 1-Series like bulk buying photo news agencies surveyed between 2017-2020 wanted an SLR and not a MILC
- EF 600mm & 400mm were updated to Series III in 5-Sep-2018
- 1D X Mark III was announced 378 days ago and was initially released in some markets on February 2020 while others got it as late as July 2020
- Market for flagship bodies is too small to support more than 1 "new" one at the same time
- Having 2 "new" flagships at the same time would halve that market, doubles the R&D cost and would not pay for the R&D of last year's model
- 1D X Series sees a replacement every ~4 years to coincide with the Summer Olympics that occurs months later
- Not enough RF mount lenses
- No 300mm, 400mm, 500mm, 600mm or even 800mm are available now
- This year's Olympics is 6 months away and there is not much lead time for the R1 to come out.
- The wants/wishes of outliers like those on a photo forum does not reflect the totality of the photographic market
- Rumors of flagship models gets a lot of clicks. How many times has CR published rumors of a Series II 800/5.6 or 200/2.0?
- Back orders for the R5 & R6 are high and are produced in batches on demand.
- Rescheduled 2020 Summer Olympics occurring in July 2021 may even happen
- $4,499 to compete with the Sony a9 II?
- $6,499 to compete with Nikon and Canon's 1D X Mark III?
- $7,149 to cover any development cost projected reduction of economies of scale?
- 549 days is the shortest product cycle between 1-Series bodies
- This occured 22-Feb-2007 to 20-Oct-2009 from 1D Mark II to 1D Mark IIn
- As applied to the 1D X Mark III the R1 would have come out 22-Jul-2022, 2 days before the Olympics
- An R1 in 2021 could happen but it is unlikely to occur until Q1 2024
I feel safer with FAANG
Idealized R1 release would go like this
- 7-Jan-2020 would announce the R1
- 2018 would announce the RF mount 600mm, 400mm, 70-200/2.8 IS, 70-200/4 IS, etc.
- 2018-2020 would announce 200/2.0, 300/2.8, 500/4 or even 800/5.6
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From a user perspective, I will say that one of the very few issues I have with the R5 is the radically different AF capabilities it has on vertical lines versus horizontal lines. I don't find it a problem often, but it'll suddenly become a problem occasionally. Fixing this is a minor issue for me, and I think most others. Similarly, the rolling shutter on the R5 is so slight, that my desire for a global shutter has waned as a priority. It would be nice to have both of these new capabilities, but if I had to shoot a 24mp camera for it, it would be a big fat net loss.
To Mt Spokane's comments above: There are Canon patents dealing with on-sensor circuitry to produce pixel values from photosite values prior to sending off to memory/processor, so I don't think it necessarily multiplies the throughput required. I agree that a layered sensor would make most sense to accomplish all of this. Also that heat will be one of the biggest limitations.
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I simply don't speculate because my knowledge today doesn't believe in predicting the future. Randomness has the last word. Your posts just toke my attention, you appear overly confident in my opinion with your statements with some loose bits of info you gathered. I would recommend you to read Nicholas Taleb fooled by randomness if you have some spare time.
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Quad-Pixel Af, 8K and global shutter in one and same camera? I find that very hard to believe.
An earlier rumour talked about a 21MPixel sensor/camera with global shutter. I find that much more likely.
But maybe it is two-track development. A 21MP camera with global shutter, and a 45MP/8K camera with "normal" shutter? Which one to be release maybe to be decided later? Maybe both? ;-)
An earlier rumour talked about a 21MPixel sensor/camera with global shutter. I find that much more likely.
But maybe it is two-track development. A 21MP camera with global shutter, and a 45MP/8K camera with "normal" shutter? Which one to be release maybe to be decided later? Maybe both? ;-)
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My speculation is based on precedence. Your point of view has little substance.
Perhaps grounding your position on evidence or even some data may make your words be more compelling to be taken seriously.
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Yes, I doubt very much the R1 will have 8K, since that would require a much larger sensor than is typical for that product line.
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QPAF would be terrific for such a camera, since autofocus speed and accuracy are job #1 for a sports camera, IMO.
Regarding the other specs, I would be happy if the R1 has either: 1) global shutter, or 2) IBIS. I'll only be disappointed if it has neither one!
Personally, I'd be down for 26-30 MP. That seems like plenty for this body.
Regarding the other specs, I would be happy if the R1 has either: 1) global shutter, or 2) IBIS. I'll only be disappointed if it has neither one!
Personally, I'd be down for 26-30 MP. That seems like plenty for this body.
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Having tried out the 1D X Mark III, I think that the primary target audience for the R1 would be most interested in QPAF. Since the R5 and R6 have it, it seems natural to include IBIS. Since nobody else has it, global shutter seems to me to be more of a nice-to-have than a needs-to-have feature, but I am sure that it will be appreciated if it appears. 8K seems unnecessary and unlikely, as it is not likely to feature a high-res sensor. 4K/120 with awesome AF should be sufficient.
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I need to sell several big things... or do I just start saving now for the R1 MkII and give the 1DX3 the four-year hard-working life it deserves?!!
More seriously, this product line tends not to be at the cutting edge of video resolution, so 8K would likely present too many technological hurdles or unnecessary compromises over the more typical feature list on a press camera. (Not that video has ever interested me, although I am pleased to be using my 1DX2 as my Zoom and Teams webcam!)
More seriously, this product line tends not to be at the cutting edge of video resolution, so 8K would likely present too many technological hurdles or unnecessary compromises over the more typical feature list on a press camera. (Not that video has ever interested me, although I am pleased to be using my 1DX2 as my Zoom and Teams webcam!)
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My thoughts exactly. Can't wait to use on camera fill flash on a sunny day for group portraits at 800mm. 
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This is exactly how stock traders react if you confront them that stock-picking is an illusion of skill (see Daniel Kahneman, thinking fast and slow work). It's their job so they rather defend it. What would you rather like to hear when doing your work that your skilled or based on luck? People tend to see personal outcomes more as a result of skill. While outcomes of other are more a result of randomness in their eyes (look up contribution bias). Predicting the future accurate is an illusion as well IMO. To many variables going on in the world and rare events.
If you didn't like Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb try the book from Daniel Kahneman, thinking fast and slow. The evidence you asked can be find over there. Widely respected guy and a Nobel Prize winner. Try not to be biased against me just because I quoted you about your speculation about the release date of the R1. I highly recommend those books, give them a read with an open mind. If your opinion is still different after that no worries. Each on their own.
The problem IMO in your previous posts is you gather loose bits of info and make up a story of it (and seem extremely confident about it). Based on some research you think you have the whole picture and can predict the future. In reality you have a few pieces (information) of the puzzle. What if the pieces (of information) you don't own and you don't know exist, have a bigger effect on the outcome than the pieces you already have (info)?
Look up illusion of validity a cognitive bias. Last week you seem overly confident the R1 doesn't get released this year or before 2024 (just because that is the pattern Canon usually follows with the 1DX). This rumor is pointing in a different direction (if it's true idk, time will tell). I don't speculate on that just noticing some fallacies in your posts. Let me do the search for you ' Illusion of validity is a cognitive bias in which a person overestimates his or her ability to interpret and predict accurately the outcome when analysing a set of data, in particular when the data analysed show a very consistent pattern—that is, when the data "tell" a coherent story '
Since your also into trading have a look here as well: The Illusion of Stock-picking .
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