Since the 300mm f/2.8 just clearly got replaced by a zoom, then it is logical that the same could happen to the 500mm. The 600, 800, and 1200 were patch jobs to hold out until new designs could be finalized, so hard to tell what will happen with the really long big whites in the future. Canon has thrown out a number of interesting patents including catadioptric and multi-bounce mirror designs that look a lot like spotting scopes. The former has all the known issues, but the spotting scope design has no optical drawbacks that I know of and it could be shorter and lighter than conventional refractors. Canon seems to be releasing a new RF lense about 6 or 8 months after killing an EF lens of similar physical size. That makes sense if they refitting existing assembly lines rather than building new ones, which also makes sense in a flat market. One area where a fast prime is needed is in the ultra wide arena to satisfy the astro crowd. A 14mm or 16mm f/1.2 or 1.4 with very low distortion and coma would be popular.Since this thread seems to have some new life in it, I thought I'd just throw something out there for reaction.
I'm wondering when, or if, the three wide primes on the list (24, 28 and 35) and the remaining big white (500mm) will ever see the light of day. There are low cost 24mm and 35mm f1.8 lenses. I guess Canon will eventually release L versions of the 24mm and 35mm, but I'm not so sure about the 28mm length. And, since the consumer versions are f1.8 lenses, will Canon go for a really high-end f1.2 version for the 24mm. Overall, I suspect these wide primes are low priority lenses for Canon that are not big sellers.
I'm pretty pessimistic about the 500 mm f4 big white. I understand that this used to be one of the most popular focal lengths among the big whites, but that was before Canon released the 100-500mm zoom. Something tells me they may not see a market for the 500mm big white any more. I know, myself, that while I once lusted after the 500mm, if I could ever afford a big white today, I'd probably wait until I could afford the 600mm.
Would Canon surprise everyone by offering a 200-500 f4 (or similar) zoom with integrated extender to replace both the 500mm and 200-400mm big whites? That would not surprise me.
Curious what others think.
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