BCN Rankings Are Out, Canon Continues to Dominate DSLRs, Further Growth in Mirrorless

[Canon Rumors]

BCN have release their rankings for 2017. These numbers represent about 50% of all Japanese camera retailers, so the numbers do come from a long sample. These numbers do not reflect sales in the rest of Asia, Europe or North America.</p>
<p><!--more--></p>
<p><strong>Digital camera (Compact)</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Canon 27.9%</li>
<li>Nikon 25.5%</li>
<li>Casio 17.2%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Digital camera (DSLR)</strong></p>


<ul>
<li>Canon 61.1%</li>
<li>Nikon 34.4%</li>
<li>Ricoh/Pentax 4.2%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Digital Camera (Mirrorless)</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Olympus 27.7%</li>
<li>Canon 21.3%</li>
<li>Sony 20.2%</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Interchangeable Lenses</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>Canon 21.9%</li>
<li>Sigma 16.2%</li>
<li>Tamron 13.7%</li>
</ul>
<p>I’m surprised to see Nikon fall out of the top 3 in the Interchangeable Lens category. Sigma and Tamron must be doing a lot right.</p>
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[Richard-CN]

some analysis we did on the subject for your viewers reading pleasure..

We are going to break down the two interchangable lens camera rankings a bit further to show some trends and drill a little deeper into the data than the overall summary report.

I find the mirrorless marketshare over time to be an interesting chart because you see what the newer entries of Nikon, Canon and Fuji did to the mirrorless marketshare post 2011.

In 2011, the big three companies were really the only three, with the three of them taking up 97.9% of the market.

However In 2012, we can see the impact immediately as the top three only held 73.2% of the market, with the remaining going to other mirrorless companies (Fuji, Canon and Nikon as all three entered the market)

Pansonic being the significant surprise as it bled marketshare from it's high in 2011 of 29.1% to falling completely out of the top 3 in 2015. (To be fair, Panasonic could be keeping it's ~11% marketshare consistently as a #4 place finisher and we'd never know it).

Canon is the relative newcomer in the two three going from less than 11.9% in 2015 to 21.3% this last year. Looking at 2014 onwards, that's the most significant growth of any of the top three mirrorless manufacturers selling in Japan.

What's more surprising about the results from last year is that Canon managed to gain from the year prior (2016 results). They weren't supposed to. The other manufacturers had shortages throughout the year because of the Sony fabrication issues caused by the Kumamoto earthquake. This year was supposed to be a rebound year, and anyone betting would have easily put Canon down to #3. The fact that Canon gained marketshare against it's competitors who this year didn't have supply problems should start to worry other mirrorless manufacturers.

If the mirrorless market looks something mixed up and confusing, the DSLR trend is downright great if you are Canon. Not so much for anyone else.

Canon here takes it's marketshare from a 2011 low of 46.3% to a high of 63.3% in 2016 in a earthquake year to a still overly dominant 61.1% this past year.

This is the trend that was expected for mirrorless with Canon taking a slight step back this year in both DSLR and Mirrorless marketshares. Nikon makes a bit of a rebound this year, but the trendline still doesn't look that rosey for the black and yellow team.

As you can see from the above graph, Sony went from modest sales to basically being non-existant (the last two years having .3% each year), while Pentax maintains a pretty constant sales throughout the reported years.

I should also mention, even though BCN only covers Japan. Asia is still the dominant force behind mirrorless, and Japan is the per capita global leader in camera sales.

 

[Woody]

I will love to see how Nikon tackles the mirrorless market in 2018. Thom Hogan is predicting an all-out effort from Nikon to win new market shares.

Will 2018 be the year of FF mirrorless from Canon... finally?

 

[Loswr]

some analysis we did on the subject for your viewers reading pleasure..

Nice graphs. One question: given that we are only 16 days into 2018, how are you deriving your sales figures for the current year? Clairvoyance? Expert prognostication? Magic?


Presumably you are labeling based on the year the rankings came out, but it would be more appropriate and less confusing to label the columns with the year to which the rankings apply. Also, if you don't mind one additional minor critique, it's helpful to keep the same associations between manufacture and color across the graphs.

 

[docsmith]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

 

[Richard-CN]

some analysis we did on the subject for your viewers reading pleasure..

Nice graphs. One question: given that we are only 16 days into 2018, how are you deriving your sales figures for the current year? Clairvoyance? Expert prognostication? Magic?


Presumably you are labeling based on the year the rankings came out, but it would be more appropriate and less confusing to label the columns with the year to which the rankings apply. Also, if you don't mind one additional minor critique, it's helpful to keep the same associations between manufacture and color across the graphs.

all good points and you're right; BCN confuses issues by calling last year results 2018.

all updated now

 

[Loswr]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

Yeah, really drives home the point that Canon is doomed, and also highlights the fact that they absolutely must release a FF MILC immediately or else they won't gain a foothold in the mirrorless market…

 

[Richard-CN]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system

1 million is pretty conservative

 

[Richard-CN]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

Yeah, really drives home the point that Canon is doomed, and also highlights the fact that they absolutely must release a FF MILC immediately or else they won't gain a foothold in the mirrorless market…

Canon's results this year is probably worrying more than a few mirrorless companies. They gained last year from 2016, even though in 2016 they had a distinct unfair advantage of not being effected by the earthquake.

last year, was no such excuse for the heavyweights of mirrorless, and Canon still outgrew them all (2.8% versus Sony's 2.3 and Olympus .9%)

Canon however did miss their target, they wanted to be #1 domestically last year, and they certainly failed in that regard.

That and with Nikon supposedly getting in heavy with DX and FX mirrorless this year is bound to light a fire underneath Canon's posterior.

 

[ritholtz]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

DSLR market share growth from 2011 low of 46.3% to a high of 63.3% in 2017, is more shocking than mirrorless growth. I think with those cute little M's, Canon is going to replicate DSLR dominance in mirroless segment. Canon just seems to know what market wants. I would say they earned these references more than references from gold award reviewers without market knowledge.

 

[docsmith]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

DSLR market share growth from 2011 low of 46.3% to a high of 63.3% in 2017, is more shocking than mirrorless growth. I think with those cute little M's, Canon is going to replicate DSLR dominance in mirroless segment. Canon just seems to know what market wants. I would say they earned these references more than references from gold award reviewers.

Yeah. It has really become about Canon vs Nikon by 2017. However, looking at the numbers, Nikon has only slipped 5-8% or about 15-20% decline. But Canon has taken almost all of the market share from Pentax and Sony in the DSLR sector.

As for the M series, the original M wasn't great. But after the M3, really they are very nice cameras.

 

[Talys]

Doomed. Canon is surely doomed because they're way too focused on making stuff that people buy.

I'm actually really surprised that that Sigma and Tamron both outsell Nikon for lenses -- I would not have guessed. Not that I'm a huge fan of Nikon lenses; back when I was a Nikon shooter, it was Canon lens envy, and colors back when it was a lot harder to adjust in post, that drove me to switch and never look back.

Also: Canon is taking a pretty impressive chunk of the mirrorless business.

 

[ahsanford]

I expect this thread and these numbers to be referenced about 1 million times in response to any negative statement about Canon....especially Canon's mirrorless system....

Probably what shocks me the most is Sony. Even in compact sales...where is the RX100???? Casio beat them???

Yeah, really drives home the point that Canon is doomed, and also highlights the fact that they absolutely must release a FF MILC immediately or else they won't gain a foothold in the mirrorless market…

 

[SkynetTX]

The image on the homepage says Mirror-less SLR category that is pretty funny since SLR stands for Single Lens Reflex and therefore must have a mirror. Probably MILC category could have been better.

 

[vangelismm]

Canon can take de mirrorless marketing anytime they want.
Just look at this numbers without a "Pro" mirrorless.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Canon has a sales network that allows them to put any new camera they introduce in front of more buyers than any other brand, so instant success is almost guaranteed for a major new model. Nikon is slipping in that area, but also strong. I think that some retailers resent Sony's super strict price control policies that keep sales numbers down. They seem to be getting good exposure, but are not displayed in the most prominent locations at the pro level stores near me.

All of that is related to sales figures, its impossible to tell which came first, but as long as Canon does not introduce a lemon and keeps their reputation for customer service, they are going to be on top.

Those factors are more important than the technical differences that generally affect only 0.1% of the photographers.

 

[rsdofny]

Are these numbers unit sales or sales revenue? If by unit sales, the number can be biased by lower end camera. I just can't imagine why Canon is above Sony in the mirrorless market. If by sales revenue, Sony may have to lower the price.

Canon has a sales network that allows them to put any new camera they introduce in front of more buyers than any other brand, so instant success is almost guaranteed for a major new model. Nikon is slipping in that area, but also strong. I think that some retailers resent Sony's super strict price control policies that keep sales numbers down. They seem to be getting good exposure, but are not displayed in the most prominent locations at the pro level stores near me.

All of that is related to sales figures, its impossible to tell which came first, but as long as Canon does not introduce a lemon and keeps their reputation for customer service, they are going to be on top.

Those factors are more important than the technical differences that generally affect only 0.1% of the photographers.

 

[IglooEater]

I wonder how representative these figures are for the rest of the world.. I guess there’s not a way to know for sure.

 

[Loswr]

I just can't imagine why Canon is above Sony in the mirrorless market.

Why not?

 

[ritholtz]

Canon has a sales network that allows them to put any new camera they introduce in front of more buyers than any other brand, so instant success is almost guaranteed for a major new model. Nikon is slipping in that area, but also strong. I think that some retailers resent Sony's super strict price control policies that keep sales numbers down. They seem to be getting good exposure, but are not displayed in the most prominent locations at the pro level stores near me.

All of that is related to sales figures, its impossible to tell which came first, but as long as Canon does not introduce a lemon and keeps their reputation for customer service, they are going to be on top.

Those factors are more important than the technical differences that generally affect only 0.1% of the photographers.

I have visited few best buy stores in area during holiday season. Canon filled BB with all M models. They took center stage in display. It reminded me of Samsung LCD push in the stores.