According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest

[awinphoto]

"Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII. The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.

Also, they wouldn't (again) add a camera that had better features than their flagship at the same time again (5d m2 and 1ds 3) but Given the time passed i'm sure everyone would understand a new 5d m3 as long as a far superior 1ds is shortly coming... it'd be cool to release them together as neuro suggested but that may be asking for too much.

 

[Rincewind]

If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features. Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features. It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.

I am a product manager in a not so distant industry to the light industry. If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this". Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set. If the products are good and well costed, the turnover and margin will work out well over the lifetime of the product. Do not make short term decisions (e.g. someone has an announcement next Tues) based on long term factors (the technology, business performance, etc.). That is how product managers think. I know because I am one!

 

[Loswr]

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII.

Just after? No...a full year after. Although the xD lines have product cycles that are much longer than one year, I would bet that sales of Mk-whatever updates are highest in the first year in large part because of the upgrade market (as opposed to de novo Canon users). That one year gap allowed time for most 1DsII users to get 1DsIII's, before the cheaper option became available. If Canon releases a 5DIII first, many 1DsIII users will go that route and then possibly not get a 1DsIV when it comes. Also, releasing a consumer FF body before a pro FF body may give pros the impression that Canon doesn't care about them. While that may be true from a direct financial standpoint (there just aren't that many 1-series shooters out there), from an indirect standpoint (i.e. marketing), keeping the pros happy boosts sales. Granted, it's rare for high profile pros to switch camps, but it does happen (e.g. former Canon Explorer of Light Ole Jørgen Liodden is now a Nikon Ambassador, and Art Wolfe went the other way). Allegedly, Liodden switched because when he asked Canon for a 1D IV they didn't give him one when he wanted, so he called up Nikon and they immediately sent him a D3S and a D3X with a whole bag of lenses. Unhappy pro, indeed...

If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features. Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features. It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.

The 1-series are the flagships by design - integrated grip, highest build quality, etc. Yes, features are important. But to take your logic to an extreme, the new Rebel T3i/600D has Live View, video, and goes up to ISO6400 - all features which the 1DsIII lacks. So, is the T3i the new flagship? Egads, I hope not...

 

[Loswr]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

 

[Rincewind]

Again, with my PM's hat on, I would divide the range in to two or more categories that I think we can all agree on. My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D. They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D. It is not just based on the core technology (FF vs. crop) but also the surround feature set, which includes some very Pro oriented features that are unlikely to be seen on entry level cameras, even after many years of trickle-down.

To answer Neuroanatomist's question: number 1 because that is what a PM would do and number 2 please because I want a new camera now.

 

[niko]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

I would agree with this line of thought, if this was 2010 and we were ahead of the 1Ds release, however it is now late 2011 with still no 1Ds in sight. - I am inclined to believe that no leaks = no imminent announcement, since that is the well established precedent within the DSLR releases.

With it being 2011 and the 1Ds over 1 year past its "scheduled" release date, perceived or otherwise, the expectations have certainly gone up and judging by the missing flagship, Canon has taken a different path to the next release cycle. I for one, believe that Canon will differentiate the 1Ds and 5D first and foremost by the sensor used, with the 1Ds being much higher MP while the 5D maints a level close to the current sensor, leaving room to address the 5D AF (hopefully it is not just wishfull thinking on my part ).

As always, it would be difficult to come to any conclusions for the 1Ds/5D series using only the available (very limited) precedent as data.

 

[unfocused]

In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera?

That's a very good argument in favor of releasing a 1dsIV before a new 5D. The market for flagship products is always less sensitive to the economy. 1Ds customers fall into two categories – those who need the product to earn a living and can't afford to risk losing work because their equipment isn't equal to their competitors and those who have the disposable income to spend as much as they want on a product. Neither of these targets are impacted as much by the economy as customers at the 5D end of the scale.

If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this". Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set.

Exactly.

My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D. They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D.

Just because it's fun to cause problems, I will quibble. I think there are really three categories. I would put the 1D bodies into one category, the 5D and 7D into another and all the others into a third. While this forum is dominated by full-frame enthusiasts, my personal, non-scientific observation of the real world is that individuals who earn their living from photography at the modest/middle-class level (wedding photographers, freelancers, small and mid-market photojournalists) seem to be a mixture of 5D and 7D users.

Just one example: I've had the misfortune to attend a number of weddings in the last couple of years and have noticed that while most use 5D's, there are a fair number of 7D users as well. Some mix the two bodies. I have yet to see any wedding photographer using a 1D. (They may be out there, but not at weddings in my socioeconomic category.)

I don't pretend to know where the market is going. I'm not convinced anyone, including Nikon and Canon really knows either. (Not that they don't do a lot of market research, but because the market itself is changing rapidly) But, it seems from my narrow vantage point that the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.

I still believe that one of the big challenges facing Canon is what to do about video in the 5D. I don't think they anticipated the popularity that the camera would enjoy with video and filmmakers. Now they have to figure out how to satisfy two very different markets. Some months ago, I suggested that the biggest challenge for Canon may be trying to meet both demands in a single body. I still believe they will only split the 5D line if there is absolutely no way they feel they can produce a camera optimized for both film and stills.

Finally, I tend to agree with Neuro that we could well see different sensors in the 1Ds than in the 5D. If that is the case, we could also see both bodies announced at or about the same time.

 

[Loswr]

the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.

I don't know that the 5D and 1D are really even close, except that Canon chose to put the same sensor into the two current models in those respective lines. Formally put (in terminology familiar to those who've taken standardized tests):

1Ds : 1D :: 5DII : 7D

Or longhand, the relationship between the 1Ds and 1D lines is similar to that between the 5D and 7D lines - fundamentally, it's about still/studio utility vs. sports/action utility, or if you prefer, larger sensor vs. faster frame rates.

 

[gmrza]

There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

Now, that statement smells to me as coming from some poor soul longing for a 5DIII.

I have never bought into the idea that Canon will release a 5DIII before a 1DsIV. The latter is older, more in need of an upgrade, and will likely be released first. If (a big IF) we se an announcement for a 1DsIV coming out soon, that puts the 1Ds line on a 4-year replacement, so if that gap trickles down to the 5D line, late 2012 makes perfect sense.

I think also, if Canon could have their way, they would probably like to put a year's gap between the 1DsIV and the 5DIII. That would be a simple way to maximise 1DsIV sales before the 5DIII comes out. In a competitive market, however, Canon may not be able to afford to do that. Back in 2007/2008 Canon was leading the full frame enthusiast segment by a country mile. That is no longer the case. Canon will need to take much more account of what Nikon and Sony do.

 

[breakdown]

IMO opinion it doesn't matter if Canon releases the 1Ds IV before or at the same time as the 5DIII as long as there's a clear product differentiation that's worth paying 2,5 or 3 times more.
But that's just the big problem... the 1Ds IV should have every new feature that exist to be price worthy....
People are not going to pay that much for just weather sealing, better AF, higher fps (that most people don't need), same (or slight better) ISO performance, dual memory slots and maybe some more pixels (that most people are not waiting for).

The recent price drop of the 5DII could be an indication that the 5DIII will be released soon. Some shops also mention the sale of the 5DII as long as stocks last. I also heard of a photographer who worked for Canon that the 5DII would be released by the end of this year (but I don't know how reliable his information is).

If you look at the Nikon D800, if they only release a 20MP+ cam with video function and the same features as the D700 and an affordable price, they have a real Canon 5D(III) beater.

 

[npherno]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

While I agree with most points you all have made I think these are the central points.

Canon's issue is that they will absolutely sell more 5DIII bodies and cannot afford to lose them. At the same time they cannot further mess up their market segments. As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

I agree the 1D(s) bodies will be first, but they will lose all the market momentum especially if Nikon drops the D800 soon. The D700 was stiff competition for the 5DII already with regard to pure stills. The 5DII sold as well as it did because of video. I think if Nikon adds nice video in the short term, then Canon may well lose many sales.

 

[Edwin Herdman]

What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back.

There's little in the Sony lineup to make a person want to jump. A big fat stabilized f/1.8 50mm is about as unique as the lineup gets - but there isn't much in the way of telephotos nor specialized lenses. No perspective correction / shift lenses, and not much in the way of ultrawide or fast aperture lenses. In fact, there's not much in the Alpha mount lineup period.

I would rather Canon gets any 5D line continuation right the first time rather than rush it to market.

 

[gmrza]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time. If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV.

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

While I agree with most points you all have made I think these are the central points.

Canon's issue is that they will absolutely sell more 5DIII bodies and cannot afford to lose them. At the same time they cannot further mess up their market segments. As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

I agree the 1D(s) bodies will be first, but they will lose all the market momentum especially if Nikon drops the D800 soon. The D700 was stiff competition for the 5DII already with regard to pure stills. The 5DII sold as well as it did because of video. I think if Nikon adds nice video in the short term, then Canon may well lose many sales.

We seen to all be making the assumption that Canon needs to sell lots of 1Ds bodies. That may indeed not be the case.

Another view of things may be that Canon needs a flagship studio body that satisfies a small niche and provides bragging rights, and a popular full frame body that makes all the profits. 5Dx bodies sell many times more than the volumes of 1Dsy bodies. Canon needs to sell lots of 5Dx bodies in order to make a profit. Canon needs to sell a small number of 1Dsy bodies in order to hold a small number of leading light photographers who influence the masses and a small number of busy pros who have very demanding needs.

I don't think a lack of differentiation between the 5Dx and 1Dsy necessarily hurts Canon. It could even all be part of Canon's plan. After all, the 1DsIII has proved to be a niche product and the 5DII a huge money spinner. That has been a success recipe for Canon.

Maybe Canon does not need or want to sell large volumes of 1Ds bodies - which would especially be the case if the margins are low. Even if Canon could sell a few times as many 1DsIIIs as they are, they would still not approach anything near the volumes of 5DIIs sold. I would thus suspect that the margins on the 1DsIII are much lower. (Here I mean the margins for Canon, not for the channel.) Thus, it may make a lot more sense for Canon to focus on making the 5D series a success, even at the expense of 1Ds sales - which would especially be the case if the margin on the 5DII is better. Given volumes and the lower tolerances and build quality of the 5DII, I suspect that is the case.

We are all quick to assume that Canon are kicking themselves for cannibalising 1DsIII sales with the 5DII. We may be wrong. Canon may have achieved exactly what they set out to do.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I agree that we won't see a 5D MK III until after the 1D MK III. However, Canon claims that they have recovered from the earthquake faster than thought, so being stopped for 4 or 5 months should not cause a 1 year plus delay. Nikon obviously has not popped out new models yet, in spite of rumors, so there is little pressure at this point to rush out a new model.

The Nikon D3s appeared briefly in the Nikon Refurb store yesterday for $4160, but when I saw extra batteries going for $175, I decided the system as a whole is pretty expensive. They sold out in short order.

I guess we can look forward to $175 batteries for the 1Ds Mark 4.

 

[recon photography]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

 

[pedro]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

A guess only: if a 5Diii would be announced let's say mid October and they'd send out the prices to the winner in early November there might be a possibilty to get an already "replaced body", because the agreement was based on a 5Dii. Canon would not be forced to send out hot and new gear by no means. Don't know too much about these things, but one expects what is being offered initially...at least here in Switzerland...

 

[te4o]

Let me add one question to neuro's 2
A: After a "1DsIV"-release in October 2011 (around 7k) how many of you will wait to see what the 5DIII will be like? (and NOT buy a 1D)
AND
B:After a "5DIII" release in October 2011 (around 3.5k) how many of you will wait to see what the 1DsIV will be like? (and NOT buy a 5D)

I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly.

(Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)

 

[ronderick]

I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly.

(Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)

Well, if I recall correctly, Nikon did that before with the D3/D300 release back in 2007. Both were announced at roughly about the same time.

 

[Bishbashbosh44]

Folks should enjoy what they have. For me I have a 1d mark 3 and a elderly 5 d, both are not now cutting edge but I don't care. Look at the Alpha 900 and 850 from Sony, 24 megapixels but hopeless over iso 400 as the images are too noisy, so having lots of megapixels doesn't necessarily make for a good camera, Canon made this mistake with the 1 Ds mark 3 over the 2.

 

[recon photography]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

A guess only: if a 5Diii would be announced let's say mid October and they'd send out the prices to the winner in early November there might be a possibilty to get an already "replaced body", because the agreement was based on a 5Dii. Canon would not be forced to send out hot and new gear by no means. Don't know too much about these things, but one expects what is being offered initially...at least here in Switzerland...

i'm sure thats normal everywhere it just doesn't seem like much of a giveaway if its out of date, its almost like giving food past its use-by-date to the homeless