An update on the Canon 2021 roadmap [CR2]

dolina

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So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.
Then it isn't an R1 as it gives the impression as MILC replacement of the 1-Series dSLR bodies.

It will be a 2015 5Ds or 5Ds R replacement like a better named R5s or R5s R.
 

padam

EOS R
Aug 26, 2015
1,175
778
So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.
Unlikely, it will be a sports camera with a very fast readout sensor, so it will be less megapixels than the R5. If you have a slower sensor you may encounter flickering in the EVF more noise or increased lag, which is not what you want.
And of course no matter what they do, it still will not match the 1DX III as far as delivering a completely lag-free experience.
 

mdcmdcmdc

7Dii, M5, 100 (film)
CR Pro
Sep 4, 2020
59
66
Edit: The 2020 1D X Mark III and D6 were supposed to be the bodies for that year's Summer Games.

Due to COVID-19 the 2020 Summer Games was moved 52 weeks forward into 2021. Both Canon & Nikon dSLRs will still be used for that events.

It is impossible for a MILC replacement of either body to debut before 1 January 2024.

If the R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then we're 36 months too early.

Double grip pro-bodies tend to be out Q1 of the year of the Summer Olympics.

Next Summer Games to occur after the rescheduled 2020 event is in 2024.


What is more likely are a MILC replacement of the
  • 2015 5Ds/5Ds R by June
  • 2014 7D Mark II by September.
RF L lenses I would like to see in 2021/2022
  • 15-35mm f/4L IS
  • 10-24mm f/4L IS
  • 70-200mm f/4L IS
  • 135mm f/2L IS or faster
  • 100mm f/2.8L IS Macro
  • ~180mm f/3.5L IS Macro
  • 24mm f/1.4L
  • 35mm f/1.4L
  • 28-300mm IS wide to tele zoom
  • 8-15mm f/4L IS Fisheye
  • TS-R line up
What I'd like to see in 2023/2024
  • 200-400mm f/4L IS
  • 200mm f/2L IS
  • 300mm f/2.8L IS
  • 500mm f/4L IS
  • 800mm f/5.6L IS
  • 1200mm f/8L IS

I'd love to believe the R7 (mirrorless 7D Mark II replacement) is a priority for Canon and is still on track for a 2021 announcement, but it's somewhat of a niche product and Canon hasn't appeared overly enthusiastic about APS-C as of late, especially in the R family. On the other hand, the olympics would be a good opportunity to highlight a high-end action-oriented camera.

As for the R1 (mirrorless 1DX Mark III replacement), I believe Canon *must* release a pro-level flagship "R" body sooner rather than later. The original EOS-1 was released in September, 1989, exactly 2-1/2 years after the first EOS camera (EOS 650) in March, 1987 (according to the dates at the Canon Camera Museum site). We're already more than two years past the original EOS R release (October, 2018). What's more, if they intentionally cripple it to prevent eating into 1DXiii sales, that will send a message that Canon isn't really serious about the R family.

I'm hoping the new Canon (the one that released the R5 and R6, not the one that released the 6D Mark II and M50 Mark II) realizes that if they don't outdo themselves (by superseding the 1DXiii), somebody else will (e.g. Sony), and then Canon will have to fight to get back those customers.
 

dolina

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I'd love to believe the R7 (mirrorless 7D Mark II replacement) is a priority for Canon and is still on track for a 2021 announcement, but it's somewhat of a niche product and Canon hasn't appeared overly enthusiastic about APS-C as of late, especially in the R family. On the other hand, the olympics would be a good opportunity to highlight a high-end action-oriented camera.

As for the R1 (mirrorless 1DX Mark III replacement), I believe Canon *must* release a pro-level flagship "R" body sooner rather than later. The original EOS-1 was released in September, 1989, exactly 2-1/2 years after the first EOS camera (EOS 650) in March, 1987 (according to the dates at the Canon Camera Museum site). We're already more than two years past the original EOS R release (October, 2018). What's more, if they intentionally cripple it to prevent eating into 1DXiii sales, that will send a message that Canon isn't really serious about the R family.

I'm hoping the new Canon (the one that released the R5 and R6, not the one that released the 6D Mark II and M50 Mark II) realizes that if they don't outdo themselves (by superseding the 1DXiii), somebody else will (e.g. Sony), and then Canon will have to fight to get back those customers.
R7 is more likely to occur than the R1 before 2024. It is also likely that an RF mount APS-C body may never occur. Canon's M-Series system is selling well according to NPD.

Photogs doing the Olympics may find MILCs limiting to their workflow. So a 1-Seriens MILC is again unlikely to come out before 2024.

The odds of an R1 to come out earlier than 2024 when canon replicates the EF L lens lineup for RF remote.
 
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HeavyPiper

6D Mark II
CR Pro
Aug 1, 2018
54
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I'm saving my spare dollars for the R5. With that said, I'm also looking forward to what might become my second body.
 
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Billybob

800mm f/11 because a cellphone isn't long enough!
May 22, 2016
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Unlikely, it will be a sports camera with a very fast readout sensor, so it will be less megapixels than the R5. If you have a slower sensor you may encounter flickering in the EVF more noise or increased lag, which is not what you want.
And of course no matter what they do, it still will not match the 1DX III as far as delivering a completely lag-free experience.

Yes, less MP than the R5 but more than the 20MP 1 DX series. I see 32-36MP as a sweet spot. Enough MP to satisfy wildlife photographer's desire/need to crop but, perhaps, not so many MP as to be a non-starter for photojournalists. Undoubtedly, the technology and computing horsepower exists to create a fast sensor with a greater than 20-24MP sensor. The main question is not whether such a camera can be made but rather who will buy this camera if the resolution is significantly greater than 24MP. Perhaps creating a MILC targeted more to wildlife photographers now would be a way of protecting the 1DX series until time for the next iteration.
 
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Jasonmc89

EOS 80D
Feb 7, 2019
297
316
UK
So no R7. No problem my R5, 5DsR, 5DIV, D500 and D850 are more than enough and up to all tasks (Personal opinion of course).

EDIT: And a "lowly" 90D attached to 100-400 I often seem to forget about!
I’ll have it
 

slclick

Earl of Exposure
Dec 17, 2013
4,419
2,564
Ok, well, some of us will just have to be a bit more patient. That's ok. SWWYH
 

rwvaughn

Live in the moment.
Mar 22, 2016
46
23
Southern Indiana, USA
Edit: The 2020 1D X Mark III and D6 were supposed to be the bodies for that year's Summer Games.

Due to COVID-19 the 2020 Summer Games was moved 52 weeks forward into 2021. Both Canon & Nikon dSLRs will still be used for that events.

It is impossible for a MILC replacement of either body to debut before 1 January 2024.

If the R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then we're 36 months too early.

Double grip pro-bodies tend to be out Q1 of the year of the Summer Olympics.

Next Summer Games to occur after the rescheduled 2020 event is in 2024.

There's growing uncertainty among the US Olympic Coaching community if the 2020(1) games are even going to be held now. It's possible that the next games will be 2024.
 

dolina

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Dec 27, 2011
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There's growing uncertainty among the US Olympic Coaching community if the 2020(1) games are even going to be held now. It's possible that the next games will be 2024.
I think the US should sit it out as they have they had to deal with the most COVID-19 cases worldwide and Trump.

About 80% favor canceling or postponing Tokyo Olympics in summer.

1D X Mark III, D6 and even the a9 II will become stale. :(

It would be crazy of Canon to release the R1 if it's largest customers cancel or delay orders.
 
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Gazwas

EOS 90D
Sep 3, 2018
199
168
The high resolution R is a unicorn camera and anyone holding off on the (totally amazing) R5 because of it are in for a long and dissapointing wait.
 

Famateur

EOS R
Oct 9, 2012
841
214
Given that Canon is still struggling to stock the R5 (as well as even the basic EF/RF adapter!), I would anticipate that we'll see development announcements for one or two bodies this year but not actual releases until production of already highly-sought Canon cameras meets the demand.

I've been waiting for many months to buy an R5.* Until they're regularly stocked at major dealers, I think Canon will keep a lid on new high-end releases. We might see entry-level bodies released, as those will bring more revenue, but I doubt any new high-end bodies will actually ship to dealers in 2021 -- unless/until production capacity recovers.

* I admit, I've had a chance on a couple of occasions to buy direct through Canon or once from Best Buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe it's a subconscious loyalty to Adorama which has supplied all of my Canon gear in recent years...
 

dolina

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Given that Canon is still struggling to stock the R5 (as well as even the basic EF/RF adapter!), I would anticipate that we'll see development announcements for one or two bodies this year but not actual releases until production of already highly-sought Canon cameras meets the demand.

I've been waiting for many months to buy an R5.* Until they're regularly stocked at major dealers, I think Canon will keep a lid on new high-end releases. We might see entry-level bodies released, as those will bring more revenue, but I doubt any new high-end bodies will actually ship to dealers in 2021 -- unless/until production capacity recovers.

* I admit, I've had a chance on a couple of occasions to buy direct through Canon or once from Best Buy, but I didn't pull the trigger. Maybe it's a subconscious loyalty to Adorama which has supplied all of my Canon gear in recent years...
I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.
 

Czardoom

EOS 90D
Jan 27, 2020
185
409
R7 is more likely to occur than the R1 before 2024. It is also likely that an RF mount APS-C body may never occur. Canon's M-Series system is selling well according to NPD.

Photogs doing the Olympics may find MILCs limiting to their workflow. So a 1-Seriens MILC is again unlikely to come out before 2024.

The odds of an R1 to come out earlier than 2024 when canon replicates the EF L lens lineup for RF remote.

You keep insisting that the R1 will be scheduled to replace the 1Dx III, but I wouldn't look at it that way, nor do I think Canon will. I look at the R1 as a parallel release with the 1DX III, giving sports photogs a choice between a DSLR (which I do think will remain popular due to its OVF) and an MILC. I don't think Canon will ignore that some sports photogs will want to go mirrorless. If they wait until 2024, that will be unbelievably stupid as those who want to go mirrorless, will move elsewhere by then. The Olympics are not the only game in town, so to speak, there are sports events of significan magnitude all year round, every year. If they have the R1 tech ready now, they will want to dominate the sports market. They can only do that if they compete now with the Sony A9. That's the way I look at it.
 

dolina

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You keep insisting that the R1 will be scheduled to replace the 1Dx III, but I wouldn't look at it that way, nor do I think Canon will. I look at the R1 as a parallel release with the 1DX III, giving sports photogs a choice between a DSLR (which I do think will remain popular due to its OVF) and an MILC. I don't think Canon will ignore that some sports photogs will want to go mirrorless. If they wait until 2024, that will be unbelievably stupid as those who want to go mirrorless, will move elsewhere by then. The Olympics are not the only game in town, so to speak, there are sports events of significan magnitude all year round, every year. If they have the R1 tech ready now, they will want to dominate the sports market. They can only do that if they compete now with the Sony A9. That's the way I look at it.
Because it does not make any business sense to cannibalize your own product that soon.

Economies of scale will be lower.

Unless Canon's willing to write it off as a loss then no R1 until Q1 2024.

Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.

The retiree/hobbyist market is significantly different & smaller from the photonews agency market. These agencies bulk buy bodies, lenses and accessories by the hundreds. They get surveyed what they want in the next replacement cycle. If they wanted MILC sooner then Canon/Nikon would have released these bodies in Q1 2020.

If you think Sony a9 is that good then look at photojournalist pen in the last 24 months on how many are using it. Tendency it's at most 1 in a sea of Canon/Nikon lenses.
 
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