An update on the Canon 2021 roadmap [CR2]

[Famateur]

I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.

For the sake of Canon financials, I sincerely hope you're right! I'd love to see what sales volume of the R5 ends up being for 2020...

 

[dolina]

For the sake of Canon financials, I sincerely hope you're right! I'd love to see what sales volume of the R5 ends up being for 2020...

At most 5-20% of all shipped DSC.

 

[dolina]

I was looking over the full frame MILCs of each brand and here is what I found

5 body segmentation/specializations

• Sony
• Leica

4 body segmentation/specializations

• Canon
• Panasonic

3 body segmentation/specializations

• Nikon lines

1 body segmentation/specializations

• Sigma

I think Canon will only add one more new line with the R1. They will reposition the R or RP have a Mark 2.

I am uncertain if Nikon can add 2 more body lines .

APS-C MILCs may be limited to say 3 body segmentation/specializations

 

[Michael Clark]

It would definitely break precedent for them to release it now, but it wouldn't break all precedent. This is, thanks to Covid, an Olympic year. If they released something before March, it'd be a match relative to the Olympic scheduling but not a match from the standpoint of how often they update models. I could imagine them doing it, if only because Covid has upended a lot of things and forced many traditions to be altered. (However, the rumor claims it will be later this year, so there's that!)
And it's "only" 36 months too early for 2024 (Q1 2024 - Q1 2021 = 3 years).

There's also the 2022 Winter Olympics to consider. If a lot of high end buyers don't buy into the 1D X Mark III because they're waiting on the R1 (or start buying R5 bodies because they're getting tired of waiting), then I could see Canon bringing the R1 out near the end of 2021in order to have it in ready to use at the 2022 Winter Olympics.

 

[Michael Clark]

So, perhaps the MILC release won't be the Mark III replacement. Rumor is that this pro-level release will be high-resolution model with upgraded AF, performance and built specs. Photojournalists don't want a high-resolution camera, so this high-resolution camera can be sold alongside the Mark III without cannibalizing Mark III sales (overly). At least that's what I hope.

"High resolution" is relative. For the Canon 1-series, which has never exceeded 21MP, 30-35-40MP would be considered high resolution.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

There's also the 2022 Winter Olympics to consider. If a lot of high end buyers don't buy into the 1D X Mark III because they're waiting on the R1 (or start buying R5 bodies because they're getting tired of waiting), then I could see Canon bringing the R1 out near the end of 2021in order to have it in ready to use at the 2022 Winter Olympics.

Good point. If it truly has a revolutionary autofocus system as rumored, the Winter Olympics would be a great time. I expect that tons of money is being spent on the development, so they will want to sell it as soon as its ready. The money spent to develop the 1D MK III was in 2018 and earlier, its not a factor. Increasing Revenue for development costs spent in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is a big factor.

 

[navastronia]

I would think an R5s with the high MP sensor we've reckoned was coming since the 90D (scaling up that sensor to full-frame) would be the easiest camera for Canon to make and put out this calendar year.

Remove/modify a couple features from the R5, replace its sensor with one that goes to 90 MP, and call it a day. If it were out in July, that would be in time for landscape photographers to use it in the Northern Hemisphere's autumn this year.

 

[Michael Clark]

Good point. If it truly has a revolutionary autofocus system as rumored, the Winter Olympics would be a great time. I expect that tons of money is being spent on the development, so they will want to sell it as soon as its ready. The money spent to develop the 1D MK III was in 2018 and earlier, its not a factor. Increasing Revenue for development costs spent in 2019, 2020, and 2021 is a big factor.

It seems to me that a lot of the R&D that went into the 1D X Mark III was in anticipation of a mirrorless 1-Series camera. Even the OVF AF system is based around a small CMOS sensor that is more like an imaging sensor than like any previous PDAF array. A lot of the R&D that went into the 1D X Mark III also showed up in the R5/R6. It's not like all of that R&D is gone if an R1 is introduced late in 2021 or early 2022.

 

[LeBlobe]

if they release r7 this year , it would need at least 1 big prime with it? would make sense since its missing from RF lineup so far

I just hope they release RF 100mm or 180mm macro, i really want this before summer

 

[Aussie shooter]

I think the low number of bodies has more to do with Canon et al under forecasting actual demand and other supply chain challenges.

I dont know. The factory fire in Japan(which i posted a thread about elsewhere) has affected all Japanese camera manufacturers(as well as other tech manufatureres) and was anticipated to cause long delays to production. So putting that on top of the Covid induce supply chain issues and you have a perfect storm that is limiting the ability to produce cameras fast enough despite tue fact that the camera industry is shrinking

 

[dolina]

I dont know. The factory fire in Japan(which i posted a thread about elsewhere) has affected all Japanese camera manufacturers(as well as other tech manufatureres) and was anticipated to cause long delays to production. So putting that on top of the Covid induce supply chain issues and you have a perfect storm that is limiting the ability to produce cameras fast enough despite tue fact that the camera industry is shrinking

burned Down plants tend to be part of a supply chain challenge.

 

[unfocused]

I don't like to question @Canon Rumors Guy when it comes to camera release rumors, but I have a hard time imagining an R1 for the summer (or possibly fall 2021) Olympics. Canon announced the 1Dx in Oct. and released it in March. They announced the 1DxII in Feb and the 1Dx III was released last February. My point is that the clock is ticking on announcing a radical new 1 series body.

We've seen no announcement. pre-announcement, teasers or leaks. Olympic level photographers need time to become familiar with the cameras (and that's for DSLRs where the basic controls and body types were familiar). Given that there are basically no major sporting events happening and it is already January, I don't see many Olympic photographers taking a chance on a completely new body style. I can't imagine anyone relying on it for the Olympics without having the opportunity to put it through the paces at other events. There is too much at risk. And, honestly, right now, what other events are there even being held for photographers to cover?

I suppose Canon could release it around the time of the Olympics and give bodies to a bunch of photographers to try out, but I doubt many would actually be using it for Olympic events.

Additionally, it seems strange that Canon would delay an R5s in favor of the R1.The R5s, if it follows the 5Ds model, will be basically an R5 with a different sensor -- a model that presumably wouldn't require extensive retooling and could share much of the same assembly processes. The only explanation I can think of is that they are so far behind on R5 deliveries that they don't want to tie up the assembly lines with another version the R5.

 

[boyluck04]

I expect 2 entry level models that replace R & RP

 

[degos]

Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.

The Summer Olympics account for a fraction of one percent of all the photos used by news agencies. It's really not that big of a deal on a longer timeline.

Sure, when it's happening it's a big show. But for the other 47 months of the cycle it doesn't exist.

 

[fentiger]

if canon are intent of releasing a R1,
they would need to have a compliment of big white primes that are native RF mount.

 

[navastronia]

Yeah, thinking more about it, I’d be most disappointed if the features and specs of the R1 are basically the same as the 1-DX mk III, and releasing the camera this year almost guarantees that, no?

 

[Exploreshootshare]

If Canon can/. will only release one high-end camera body, I personally think it would make more sense releasing a R5s instead of the R1 at this point. There are plenty of awesome lenses to pair with the R5s i.e. for landscape photography (RF 28-70 RF 15-35mm . Furthermore, it seems to meet a need (according to people in camera forums) and Canon could take the R5 body, put in a new sensor (90 MP) and just modify a few things.

The R1 will take more time developing, the 1DX III is pretty new on the market and so far there no dedicated wildlife/ sport RF lenses to pair with the R1. Olympics games are questionable as well, I don't see Canon pushing the R1 no matter what...

For the other cameras:
One of the R/ RP follow up will come as well. Development should be fairly easy considering it's an evolution of existing cameras and there's always the possibility of using tech from the "top-to-buttom-approach". Production issues will probably have one camera moved to 2022 (imho RP II) and the R follow-up will be released in September 2021, the day of the three year anniversary of the R debut So far:

2018: R

2019: RP & Ra

2020: R5& R6

Therefore, I personally expect a maximum of three cameras being released in a year, due to production issue closer to two...

2021: R5s & R follow-up and a development announcement R1 to be in time with the Winter Olympics

2022: R1 (Winter Olympics) R7 alongside the R1 & RP Mark II

But that's just my opinion and it is probably just as accurate as "reading tea leafs".

 

[PerKr]

COVID-19 forced a 1 year delay for the 2020 Summer Olympics as such orders for the Mark III may have been delayed or even cancelled.

No time in Canon/Nikon's history has a double grip pro body received an update in less than 2 years.

Both companies need to recoup R&D expense as such they need to sell these bodies and not render them obsolete within 2 years by releasing their MILC replacement.

MILC replacement will come out Q1 of 2024 for that year's Summer Games.

Guys come on. Don't you keep with current events? This was news from March to June.

You're looking at the R1 as and update to the 1D. It isn't. It's an entirely new product that sits in the same segment as the 1D series. They need to have this out pretty soon, waiting until 2024 is not an option. That would give Sony a 7 year head start in professional mirrorless with the a9 series.
The closest comparison to the current situation is when the EF system was introduced in 1987. In 1989 the first 1D was released. The New F-1, Canons FD-mount professional camera, was not discontinued, officially, until 1994.

The 1D will continue to sell for a few years regardless. It is after all one of the very best DSLRs ever and there are plenty of people invested in EF glass who will value the advantages that DSLRs still have over mirrorless. Just like there were plenty of people invested in FD who kept buying the New F-1 and other FD-mount cameras after the EOS-1 became available.

 

[VICYASA]

So... basically you have no info and the doo-doo continues to fly to the wall and we'll see what sticks. Great update!

 

[dolina]

You're looking at the R1 as and update to the 1D. It isn't. It's an entirely new product that sits in the same segment as the 1D series. They need to have this out pretty soon, waiting until 2024 is not an option. That would give Sony a 7 year head start in professional mirrorless with the a9 series.
The closest comparison to the current situation is when the EF system was introduced in 1987. In 1989 the first 1D was released. The New F-1, Canons FD-mount professional camera, was not discontinued, officially, until 1994.

The 1D will continue to sell for a few years regardless. It is after all one of the very best DSLRs ever and there are plenty of people invested in EF glass who will value the advantages that DSLRs still have over mirrorless. Just like there were plenty of people invested in FD who kept buying the New F-1 and other FD-mount cameras after the EOS-1 became available.

I'll put some background.

ILC market is shrinking.

Historically in terms of shipments 1-Series bodies make up ~1% of all EOS bodies produced.

1D X Mark III was released in 2020... the R1 is rumored to be released a year later in 2021.

It will split a very small market in half and increase cost to Canon by over double.

If Canon wants to lose money they'll do what you suggested.

If you're not convinced then let's talk about it when the R1 will come out.

Users on CR are outliers. They will never represent the majority of 1-Series buyers.

Photonews agencies largely dictates what will be in the 1-Series bodies. If they wanted a MILC one would have been announced 52 weeks ago.