An update on the Canon 2021 roadmap [CR2]

[TinTin]

Summer Games is the largest show in town. That's what photojournalists from EPA, AP and Reuters tell me.

My understanding is the FIFA World Cup is the world's largest sporting event. (Next one due in 2022.)

The Summer Olympics is second.

The Rugby Union World Cup is third. (Next one due 2023.)

 

[bbasiaga]

Then it isn't an R1 as it gives the impression as MILC replacement of the 1-Series dSLR bodies.

It will be a 2015 5Ds or 5Ds R replacement like a better named R5s or R5s R.

Didn't they used to have a 'high res' and low res 1Ds/1D in the same generation several years back? Maybe the first mirrorless 1 series will be the high res companion, and then the 1DXIII true replacement will come in a few years.....

It does seem soon to replace the 1DXIII directly. I could see a few R1s in the wild for testing at the olympics, but a full release seems too soon. Unless it is the high res version, which is a companion not a direct replacement.

Its fun to speculate.

-Brian

 

[dolina]

My understanding is the FIFA World Cup is the world's largest sporting event. (Next one due in 2022.)

The Summer Olympics is second.

The Rugby Union World Cup is third. (Next one due 2023.)

Everyone that counter's me solely on their opinion rather than on facts/evidence.

They all thiink that 1-Series bodies that tend to sell for more than $6,000 gets renewed annually as millions are produced annually.

Dangers of being in an echo chamber.

 

[tmroper]

For many people, like those rich enough to afford Canon's top camera, the money keeps piling up due to lack of spending on travel and entertainment. So when it hits, its gonna hit big!

 

[SteveC]

5DS/R does 50 MPIX very nicely. 45 MPIX is just getting a mirrorless 5DS/R. R6 does mirrorless a lot cheaper and will be a better supplement to the R5S with it’s more light sensitive AF and better high ISO than the 5R - which I would never use after getting the 5RS anyway. Here 90 MPIX will make a visible difference.

OK, that makes sense and that's the logic I'd use. Buy two cameras as different as possible. (In fact I have an R5 and an RP, which are about as different as R cameras can be at the present time, and the R5 is more than enough pixels for me--I'd have got an R6 if only it were 30-35 MP.)

I was confused by the way you sounded like you would have been upset if the R5s came out right after the R6, and thought it would be because the R6 would then have been a pointless purchase in your mind. Clearly you must have been thinking something else. Anyhow, that's set straight now, I think.

 

[Fischer]

OK, that makes sense and that's the logic I'd use. Buy two cameras as different as possible. (In fact I have an R5 and an RP, which are about as different as R cameras can be at the present time, and the R5 is more than enough pixels for me--I'd have got an R6 if only it were 30-35 MP.)

I was confused by the way you sounded like you would have been upset if the R5s came out right after the R6, and thought it would be because the R6 would then have been a pointless purchase in your mind. Clearly you must have been thinking something else. Anyhow, that's set straight now, I think.

If both were on the shelf I would have invested in the 5RS first.

PS: I always thought the 5DS/R (best files) and 1DxII (speed/fast AF/high iso) were the perfect couple. Soon we can have a R5S and R6 covering the same ground - amazing!

 

[-pekr-]

5DS/R does 50 MPIX very nicely. 45 MPIX is just getting a mirrorless 5DS/R. R6 does mirrorless a lot cheaper and will be a better supplement to the R5S with it’s more light sensitive AF and better high ISO than the 5R - which I would never use after getting the 5RS anyway. Here 90 MPIX will make a visible difference.

I think that some 80+ mpx 5Rs having better high ISO than 5R is just .... a wishful thinking

 

[Fischer]

I think that some 80+ mpx 5Rs having better high ISO than 5R is just .... a wishful thinking

Its the R6 that has more light sensitive AF and better high iso than the R5. We will see what the High MPIX R comes with. 5DSR/R was a clear step up in AF sensitivity and acuracy from the 5DIII - and had somewhat better high iso. "Nothing is impossible"

 

[scyrene]

Everyone that counter's me solely on their opinion rather than on facts/evidence.

They all thiink that 1-Series bodies that tend to sell for more than $6,000 gets renewed annually as millions are produced annually.

Dangers of being in an echo chamber.

With all due respect, almost everything you've said in this thread has been assertion, with little actual evidence to back it up (and fwiw I don't have a view either way on when an R1 will be released).

 

[dolina]

With all due respect, almost everything you've said in this thread has been assertion, with little actual evidence to back it up (and fwiw I don't have a view either way on when an R1 will be released).

Some context to consider about 1-Series bodies and flagship bodies in general.

	Jan-Nov 2020 global DSC shipments	45.4% is Canon	1-Series Body make up 1% of all Canon ILCs
Total SLR/MILC	4,789,371	2,155,217	21,552

With only less than 22 thousand units probably shipped would it make any sense to cannibalize sales of a camera that is supposed to be produced until as late as 2026?

Canon, Nikon and even Sony need to regain their R&D money from their flagship camera that may have only sold as little as 60% of their projected 2020 sales.

1-Series bodies historically get updated before a major sporting event like the Olympics. The reason being the bulk orders from photo news agencies occurs then. Enthusiasts like those that populate forums like this are a secondary market.

1D-Series Body	Announcement Date	Release Year's Sporting Event	Original Opening/Closing Date
EOS-1D X Mark III	7 Jan 2020	2020 Summer Olympics	24 July to 9 August 2020
EOS-1D X Mark II	2 Feb 2016	2016 Summer Olympics	5 to 21 August 2016
EOS-1D X	18 Oct 2011	2012 Summer Olympics	27 July to 12 August 2012

The rescheduling of the 2020 Olympics to 365 days later is unforeseen and unscheduled.

Another issue with this R1 rumor is the lack of any long white primes that are native to the RF mount. Customarily these are announced ahead of the flagship body or with it.

Last long white primes were announced 5 Sept 2018

• EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM
• EF 600mm F4L IS III USM

Those lenses are supposed to be a match with the EOS-1D X Mark III

8 out of the 9 RF L lenses have a direct replacement of 44 currently produced EF L lenses.

Even with EF to RF adapters Canon needs to up the number of their RF L lenses before customers of R1 would completely go for it.

Same as you does not matter to me whether the R1 is released this year or Q1 2024.

CR has a lot more misses that hits when it comes to rumors. This R1 rumor is one of them.

 

[Czardoom]

Some context to consider about 1-Series bodies and flagship bodies in general.

	Jan-Nov 2020 global DSC shipments	45.4% is Canon	1-Series Body make up 1% of all Canon ILCs
Total SLR/MILC	4,789,371	2,155,217	21,552

With only less than 22 thousand units probably shipped would it make any sense to cannibalize sales of a camera that is supposed to be produced until as late as 2026?

Canon, Nikon and even Sony need to regain their R&D money from their flagship camera that may have only sold as little as 60% of their projected 2020 sales.

1-Series bodies historically get updated before a major sporting event like the Olympics. The reason being the bulk orders from photo news agencies occurs then. Enthusiasts like those that populate forums like this are a secondary market.

1D-Series Body	Announcement Date	Release Year's Sporting Event	Original Opening/Closing Date
EOS-1D X Mark III	7 Jan 2020	2020 Summer Olympics	24 July to 9 August 2020
EOS-1D X Mark II	2 Feb 2016	2016 Summer Olympics	5 to 21 August 2016
EOS-1D X	18 Oct 2011	2012 Summer Olympics	27 July to 12 August 2012

It would be nice if you could supply a link or other evidence that 1 series bodies make up 1% of Canon ILC sales. If you did so earlier and I missed it, I apologize. Otherwise it is just an opinion.

You continually assert that the R1 is the successor to the 1DX III. I don't believe it is. I believe that it can be a parallel product. So, there is no reason that the R1 will follow the schedule of the 1DX series.

You seem to worry a great deal about cannibalization. I would consider this a really minor issue compared to the issue of transitioning Canon buyers to mirrorless, which seems to be happening faster than Canon (or perhaps everyone) anticipated. If photographers are ready to transition to mirrorless in great numbers, then delaying the release of the R1 due to cannibilazation worries makes little sense to me. That is just my opinion.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

If the R1 is the MILC replacement of the 2020 1D X Mark III then we're 36 months too early.

Next Summer Games to occur after the rescheduled 2020 event is in 2024.

I am not sure that Canon needs to continue with 1DX but they need 1D of some form.
There are professional action photographers who never use Liveview and therefore have no use for mirrorless cameras.

 

[dolina]

It would be nice if you could supply a link or other evidence that 1 series bodies make up 1% of Canon ILC sales. If you did so earlier and I missed it, I apologize. Otherwise it is just an opinion.

You continually assert that the R1 is the successor to the 1DX III. I don't believe it is. I believe that it can be a parallel product. So, there is no reason that the R1 will follow the schedule of the 1DX series.

You seem to worry a great deal about cannibalization. I would consider this a really minor issue compared to the issue of transitioning Canon buyers to mirrorless, which seems to be happening faster than Canon (or perhaps everyone) anticipated. If photographers are ready to transition to mirrorless in great numbers, then delaying the release of the R1 due to cannibilazation worries makes little sense to me. That is just my opinion.

Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.

I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.

So far Ken Rockwell stipulates that the body is 1%

Because of the price bracket R1 that will be north of $4,000 & it will cannibalize $6,500 1D X Mark III sales.

Sony and Nikon does not have a MILC & SLR flagship body at the same time because the market too small.

Photogs need to look into the business side of selling of cameras when weighing any rumors published on this website.

If it does not make any business sense for Canon to do then it won't occur.

Like rumors of a Series II EF 200mm f/2L IS USM & EF 800mm f/5.6L IS USM will come out within the last 5 years. It never happened because they sell so little.

A Series III EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM occcured because these focal lengths sell very well and updating them meant it was redesigned with more modern materials that are probably cheaper to build with and lighter too.

 

[dolina]

I am not sure that Canon needs to continue with 1DX but they need 1D of some form.
There are professional action photographers who never use Liveview and therefore have no use for mirrorless cameras.

MILC will replace SLRs in the same way as SLRs replaced range finder cameras. Its the nature of tech.

Also those working photogs who wont be comfortable with MILCs will retire by the time the R1 comes out in Q1 2024.

Even if there are a sizeable number of working photgs who will insist on an SLR body then they can still continue to buy the Mark III beyond 2024. In the same way anyone can buy a Mark II until today.

Only SLR brand now is Nikon & Pentax.

SLR market is too small to continue to spend any R&D money for that platform. Does not mean that Canon/Nikon/Pentax wont continue producing more copies of the current bodies, lens and accessories so long as there is enough demand.

 

[privatebydesign]

Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.

I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.

So far Ken Rockwell stipulates that the body is 1%

Because of the price bracket R1 that will be north of $4,000 & it will cannibalize $6,500 1D X Mark III sales.

Sony and Nikon does not have a MILC & SLR flagship body at the same time because the market too small.

Photogs need to look into the business side of selling of cameras when weighing any rumors published on this website.

Because lets face it Ken Rockwell is the authority!

There is no way on earth anybody but Canon Japan know how many 1 series bodies are shipped, sold direct, distributed to importers and agencies.

But numbers aside, if they represent x value of sales numbers who is to say what % of profit do they get from those sales. You make a lot more profit on a $6,000 body than a $600 body.

 

[dolina]

Because lets face it Ken Rockwell is the authority!

There is no way on earth anybody but Canon Japan know how many 1 series bodies are shipped, sold direct, distributed to importers and agencies.

But numbers aside, if they represent x value of sales numbers who is to say what % of profit do they get from those sales. You make a lot more profit on a $6,000 body than a $600 body.

I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.

Canon disclosed that information.

The margins of the 1-Series will be better than $500+ body but they need to reach a certain number of units to reach their targeted economies of scale for that product.

That figure is more than 2x 2020's CIPA numbers

If they only hit ~50% of their target sales for 2020 why would they risk cannibalizing sales further by introducing a MILC equivalent/replacement before 2024?

 

[EOS 4 Life]

I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.

Canon disclosed that information.

The margins of the 1-Series will be better than $500+ body but they need to reach a certain number of units to reach their targeted economies of scale for that product.

That figure is more than 2x 2020's CIPA numbers

If they only hit ~50% of their target sales for 2020 why would they risk cannibalizing sales further by introducing a MILC equivalent/replacement before 2024?

The sensor and image processor from 1DX Mark III are in the R6.
Canon can make their R & D money back by selling R6 units.

 

[dolina]

The sensor and image processor from 1DX Mark III are in the R6.
Canon can make their R & D money back by selling R6 units.

All the other parts of the 1DX Mark III need to be paid for.

There is a reason why Canon did not debut a 5D5 with a EOS R5 and 6D3 with a EOS R6 in 2020 and instead just continued selling the 2016 EOS 5D Mark IV & 2017 EOS 6D Mark II.

Customers insisting on SLRs have the current models to buy until 2025/2026 while MILC customers have the 2018-onwards models to buy.

ILCs has have their worst year in 2019 & 2020 since it peaked in 2012.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

ILCs has have their worst year in 2019 & 2020 since it peaked in 2012.

Between COVID-19, the economic crises, and the plant fire that time period is a bit of an outlier and would not be sound to use to show trends.

 

[dolina]

Between COVID-19, the economic crises, and the plant fire that time period is a bit of an outlier and would not be sound to use to show trends.

To continue the trend of being the sole person on CR to share citations to support my point of view here are some to ponder upon.

CIPA Statistical Shipment Data​	2012​	2013​	2014​	2015​	2016​	2017​	2018​	2019​	Jan-Nov 2020​
Total SLR & MILC​	20,157,053​	17,131,367​	13,839,168​	13,053,999​	11,607,778​	11,675,689​	10,759,797​	8,461,490​	4,789,371​
SLR​	16,200,451​	13,825,569​	10,549,890​	9,709,093​	8,449,043​	7,595,708​	6,620,999​	4,504,987​	2,178,839​
MILC​	3,956,602​	3,305,798​	3,289,278​	3,344,906​	3,158,735​	4,079,981​	4,138,798​	3,956,503​	2,610,532​

Key points

From 2012-2019

• MILCs kept at between 3.1 million to 4.1 million
• SLRs steadily decreased from 16.2 million to 4.5 million

In 2020

• MILCs outsold SLRs

The fire occurred on October 2020. This would most likely impact Nov-Dec 2020 & 2021 shipments if Canon and other camera maker's procurement are not quick to act.

Standard procurement/supply chain practices normally have at minimum 2 suppliers for any part following the 80/20 rule. Based on the report it appears that Taiwan-based supplier makes up ~80% of that part.

The supplier that does ~20% of that part could change their production schedule to 24/7 until the other plant is up and running again. This should help stabilize supplies.

Dropping shipping volume and supply chain issues like that fire will result in more expensive camera bodies/accessories/lenses.

My optimistic outlook for 2021

• Total SLR & MILC shipment will not surpass 2019's 8,461,490 but will not be lower than 6 million.
• SLRs will never outsell MILCs ever again as the manufacturer's R&D focus is on mirrorless
• Whatever SLR body, lens or accessories released from 2019-2020 will continue until at least 2024
• Pre-2019 SLR bodies may be discontinued entirely or be replaced by a MILC equivalent

Come 2024-2026 my personal projection for global CIPA DSC shipments would be

• 0.6 million P&S
• 0.6 million SLRs
• 5.7 million MILCs

By then

• About 57 thousand flagship full frame MILCs from Canon/Sony/Nikon(?) will be made annually.
• Of which 1% of their actual users will be on forums like CR arguing about the R1 Mark II being released 12 months after the R1 thinking these cameras sell by the millions of units annually.
• Flagship MILCs will cost more than $6,499
• Canon/Sony/Nikon(?) will have at most 5 full frame body series and 3 APS-C body series
• Canon will be at least 50% of all DSC shipped. Sony will be #2 and Nikon #3. Other brands may end up like Olympus