An update on the Canon 2021 roadmap [CR2]

Michael Clark

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Apr 5, 2016
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I'll put some background.

ILC market is shrinking.

Historically in terms of shipments 1-Series bodies make up ~1% of all EOS bodies produced.

1D X Mark III was released in 2020... the R1 is rumored to be released a year later in 2021.

It will split a very small market in half and increase cost to Canon by over double.

If Canon wants to lose money they'll do what you suggested.

If you're not convinced then let's talk about it when the R1 will come out.

Users on CR are outliers. They will never represent the majority of 1-Series buyers.

Photonews agencies largely dictates what will be in the 1-Series bodies. If they wanted a MILC one would have been announced 52 weeks ago.

What if sales of 1D Mark III bodies have been dismal because, in addition to the Covid-19 issues, many/most of the customers who Canon hoped would buy several dozen to several hundred 1D X Mark III bodies have said: "Since we don't need the 1D X Mark III for 2020 (becasue so much is shut down), we're waiting for the R1, thank you very much?"

You're suggesting Canon should dig in and force those buyers to wait until 2024 for the R1? Do you think Canon is foolish enough to believe those customers will be forced to buy 1D X Mark III bodies in the meantime when the Sony α9 III is on the horizon?

You're also assuming that none of the R&D Canon did for the 1D X Mark III will also apply to the R1. Much of it showed up in the R5/R6, what makes you think the 1D X Mark III wasn't, in some ways, a test bed for R1 technology? The cost of the R&D for technology shared by all of them can be amortized by selling either of the three.
 
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Michael Clark

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Most likely, Canon will be so busy trying to meet demand for the R5 and R6, that anything and everything else has to be put on hold.

Let's face it, they are both amazing cameras, and are blowing away competitors from Nikon, Sony and Panasonic, so there's no real hurry to get anything else released at the moment.

Sure it would be great to have "R7" and "R5s", but it's more important - in terms of sales - to replace the R and RP.

As for the pro "R1", there's a strong likeihood that the 2021 Olympics will never happen. In which case another postponement is unlikely and the next Olympics will actually be in 2024. So Canon and everyone else may actually decide to delay their pro models to enable further mind-boggling developments to take place.

There are Winter games currently scheduled for 2022, which may or may not go on as scheduled.
 

Michael Clark

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Within the decade Canon USA disclosed in a video & written presentation that the 1-Series body makes up 1% of all SLR sales.

I've been looking for it on Google, Canon.com and YouTube but it appears to be removed already.

So far Ken Rockwell stipulates that the body is 1%

Because of the price bracket R1 that will be north of $4,000 & it will cannibalize $6,500 1D X Mark III sales.

Sony and Nikon does not have a MILC & SLR flagship body at the same time because the market too small.

Photogs need to look into the business side of selling of cameras when weighing any rumors published on this website.

If it does not make any business sense for Canon to do then it won't occur.

Like rumors of a Series II EF 200mm f/2L IS USM & EF 800mm f/5.6L IS USM will come out within the last 5 years. It never happened because they sell so little.

A Series III EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM occcured because these focal lengths sell very well and updating them meant it was redesigned with more modern materials that are probably cheaper to build with and lighter too.

That 1% number was tossed out when Canon was still selling, by your own numbers, 16 Million SLRS per annum. That would mean 160K 1-Series cameras. As you have said here ad nauseum, DSLR sales are eroding at a much faster rate than MILC sales. As the Rebels (and maybe M-Series) die, then the 1-Series will make up far more than 1% of what's left. That's based strictly on the numbers you have presented above.
 

Michael Clark

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I am also hesitant about using Ken Rockwell as a reference but he probably saw the same Canon presentation as I did.

Canon disclosed that information.

The margins of the 1-Series will be better than $500+ body but they need to reach a certain number of units to reach their targeted economies of scale for that product.

That figure is more than 2x 2020's CIPA numbers

If they only hit ~50% of their target sales for 2020 why would they risk cannibalizing sales further by introducing a MILC equivalent/replacement before 2024?

Because if Canon doesn't risk cannibalizing those sales with an R1, they risk losing those sales to Sony and the α9 III?
 

Michael Clark

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if they release r7 this year , it would need at least 1 big prime with it? would make sense since its missing from RF lineup so far

I just hope they release RF 100mm or 180mm macro, i really want this before summer

The lens to go with the R7 may be the RF 100-500mm, in much the same way that the EF 100-400mm II came out about the same time as the 7D Mark II.
 

dolina

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That 1% number was tossed out when Canon was still selling, by your own numbers, 16 Million SLRS per annum. That would mean 160K 1-Series cameras. As you have said here ad nauseum, DSLR sales are eroding at a much faster rate than MILC sales. As the Rebels (and maybe M-Series) die, then the 1-Series will make up far more than 1% of what's left. That's based strictly on the numbers you have presented above.
The CIPA number of 16 million is split among all SLR brands. Year 2021 brands are now Canon, Nikon and Pentax.

You're assuming working photographer jobs are constant.


 
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dolina

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What if sales of 1D Mark III bodies have been dismal because, in addition to the Covid-19 issues, many/most of the customers who Canon hoped would buy several dozen to several hundred 1D X Mark III bodies have said: "Since we don't need the 1D X Mark III for 2020 (becasue so much is shut down), we're waiting for the R1, thank you very much?"

You're suggesting Canon should dig in and force those buyers to wait until 2024 for the R1? Do you think Canon is foolish enough to believe those customers will be forced to buy 1D X Mark III bodies in the meantime when the Sony α9 III is on the horizon?

You're also assuming that none of the R&D Canon did for the 1D X Mark III will also apply to the R1. Much of it showed up in the R5/R6, what makes you think the 1D X Mark III wasn't, in some ways, a test bed for R1 technology? The cost of the R&D for technology shared by all of them can be amortized by selling either of the three.
You get a lot of insight about Canon/Nikon when you talk to people at Getty, EPA and Reuters.

During development of bodies, lenses and accessories Canon/Nikon gets input from the largest customers who "subscribe" to their products. Subscribe meaning they buy in buulk on a schedule.

For Canon's 1D X Series & Nikon's flagship SLR that "subscription" has always been before the Summer Olympics.

The release of those bodies indicate that the working photographers did not want MILCs at that time. Perhaps by 2024 but not now.

To have a successful release of the R1 it needs native lenses and accessories to support it. Other than f/2.8 zooms they have yet to release the long white fast primes.

The Sept 2018 announcement of the EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM tells me that Canon will release their RF mount successors by 2024 Summer Olympics.

When Canon releases a RF mount version of EF 500mm f/4.0L IS II USM & EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM then I'd agree that the R1 would come out before the reschedule 2020 Summer Games.

I'd appreciate that everyone take some effort when rubutting by sharing scholarly citations and be evidence/data driven.

Bad rumors occur when business realities does not line up with fantasies do not line up.

Good rumors occur when it fits a schedule and complementary hardware occur.

R5 occurred 4 years after the 5D Mark IV ✅
R6 occurred 3 years after the 6D Mark II ✅

R1 will occur within 19 months after the 1D X Mark III? ❌

For 2021 it is more likely that an R7 & R5s/R Mark II were to be released.
 
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dolina

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Because if Canon doesn't risk cannibalizing those sales with an R1, they risk losing those sales to Sony and the α9 III?
Sony may win with the low volume customers like retirees who want a flagship body that's $2,000 cheaper than Canon/Nikon but not with guaranteed bulk buyers like EPA, Reuters, Getty, etc

Canon & Nikon own that market. Sony's trying to crack it and the rescheduled 2020 Olympics may be its best year to get at it.

The best indicator whether Sony is successful would be a photo of the photographer's



 
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EOS 4 Life

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For Canon's 1D X Series & Nikon's flagship SLR that "subscription" has always been before the Summer Olympics.
It was not just the Summer Olympics.
An awful lot of sports were shut down this year.
Those that continued had shortened schedules.
Even the event photographers that buy 1DX cameras had fewer events and less justification for buying the latest.
A mind-numbing array of cameras was release in a shrinking market at a time with fewer opportunities.
 

dolina

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It was not just the Summer Olympics.
An awful lot of sports were shut down this year.
Those that continued had shortened schedules.
Even the event photographers that buy 1DX cameras had fewer events and less justification for buying the latest.
A mind-numbing array of cameras was release in a shrinking market at a time with fewer opportunities.
I was speaking of precedence specific to flagship Canon/Nikon bodies product cycles. :ROFLMAO:

These bodies are released a few quarters before the Olympics or other major sporting event to give working photogs time to verify, familiarize and practice on these new cameras. Whatever bugs they discover can be rectified weeks before the event via firmware or hardware fix.

For 2020 it was only disrupted a month after its February release. For some countries their first shipment only arrived after the lifting of their country's lock down as late as June.

There has been less new SKUs of point&shoot, SLR in the past 24 months than the years prior to it.

What the camera brands are doing now is increasing the SKUs of full frame and reducing number of SKUs of anything smaller.

When there were 3-4 SKUs of APS-C body lines today there were 5-8 SKUs years ago.
 
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Michael Clark

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The CIPA number of 16 million is split among all SLR brands. Year 2021 brands are now Canon, Nikon and Pentax.

You're assuming working photographer jobs are constant.



Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera. News agencies may only update half their bodies every four years, but rich folks MUST have the latest and greatest every time a new one is introduced. That's how Sony got away with offering half-baked FF mirrorless bodies with only minor upgrades every 18 months for the last eight years.
 
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EOS 4 Life

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Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera.
1D is far too large for a hobby camera.
Hobbyists are much more likely to buy 5D or R5.
 
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dolina

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Which, again, argues that the primary market for 1-Series types of cameras is no longer the PJ/Sports/Wildlife shooter using equipment bought for them by their company. It is fast transitioning into a rich person's hobby camera. News agencies may only update half their bodies every four years, but rich folks MUST have the latest and greatest every time a new one is introduced. That's how Sony got away with offering half-baked FF mirrorless bodies with only minor upgrades every 18 months for the last eight years.
1D is far too large for a hobby camera.
Hobbyists are much more likely to buy 5D or R5.
Very good points guys.

Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.

Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?
 

Michael Clark

Now we see through a glass, darkly...
Apr 5, 2016
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You get a lot of insight about Canon/Nikon when you talk to people at Getty, EPA and Reuters.

During development of bodies, lenses and accessories Canon/Nikon gets input from the largest customers who "subscribe" to their products. Subscribe meaning they buy in buulk on a schedule.

For Canon's 1D X Series & Nikon's flagship SLR that "subscription" has always been before the Summer Olympics.

The release of those bodies indicate that the working photographers did not want MILCs at that time. Perhaps by 2024 but not now.

To have a successful release of the R1 it needs native lenses and accessories to support it. Other than f/2.8 zooms they have yet to release the long white fast primes.

The Sept 2018 announcement of the EF 400mm F2.8L IS III USM & EF 600mm F4L IS III USM tells me that Canon will release their RF mount successors by 2024 Summer Olympics.

When Canon releases a RF mount version of EF 500mm f/4.0L IS II USM & EF 300mm f/2.8L IS II USM then I'd agree that the R1 would come out before the reschedule 2020 Summer Games.

I'd appreciate that everyone take some effort when rubutting by sharing scholarly citations and be evidence/data driven.

Bad rumors occur when business realities does not line up with fantasies do not line up.

Good rumors occur when it fits a schedule and complementary hardware occur.

R5 occurred 4 years after the 5D Mark IV ✅
R6 occurred 3 years after the 6D Mark II ✅

R1 will occur within 19 months after the 1D X Mark III? ❌

For 2021 it is more likely that an R7 & R5s/R Mark II were to be released.

Your four year replacement schedule has been totally disrupted by the worldwide pandemic, though. It's been blown up. Totally.

Most agencies did not go through with buying the numbers of 1D X Mark III bodies they would have otherwise bought if the pandemic had not happened and the Tokyo Olympics had been held as scheduled. I've got close friends who shoot for Getty and Gannet, as well as others who shoot for AP affiliates.

All previous assumptions are now off the table for the short term future. The superiority of the 1D X Mark III AF system in LV vs. shooting with the OVF has them salivating for a camera that can use those capabilities with an eye level VF. The appearance of the R5 on the scene, along with a year for many of those users to familiarize themselves with the vast improvements the 1D X Mark III in LV and the R5 offers over previous mirrorless bodies will have them rethinking what, exactly, they want when they are ready to buy again. A LOT more Sony α9 bodies are showing up on the sideline at major sporting events now than was the case a couple of years ago. That was already gaining momentum in the second half of 2019.

At the beginning of 2020 it was fair enough to say that those customers were not ready for a MILC 1-Series. That is no longer the case. They've seen how much more the 1D X Mark III offers in LV than with the OVF and mirror. They've seen the R5 and what it offers as far as the EVF is concerned. They've seen what their counterparts have been able to get with the Sony α9 bodies now that Sony is making lenses that they need. More importantly, they've talked to them about the differences in the shooting experience as top level sports photographers. They're ready for a MILC 1-Series (or Nikon or Sony equivalents)!
 
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Michael Clark

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Sony may win with the low volume customers like retirees who want a flagship body that's $2,000 cheaper than Canon/Nikon but not with guaranteed bulk buyers like EPA, Reuters, Getty, etc

Canon & Nikon own that market. Sony's trying to crack it and the rescheduled 2020 Olympics may be its best year to get at it.

The best indicator whether Sony is successful would be a photo of the photographer's




Guaranteed bulk buyers are about as plentiful as the Amur Leopard or the North Atlantic Right Whale. Their numbers are headed in the same direction, too.

Top level sports is more and more becoming a freelancer's game, even for those who shoot primarily for Getty and Gannett, at least here in the U.S. It's been heading in that direction for over a decade. Those who once held full time staff positions with equipment issued by the agency are now being paid less to freelance with their personally owned equipment. That's when the attractiveness of the Sony α9 began to gain momentum here in the U.S. (apart from the golf/tennis specialists and political press photographers that got tremendous benefit from fully silent operation).

This was published in 2015, and it's far more the case now than it was then.


Bruce Kluckhohn, Brad Mangin, Bob Martin, Robert Seale, and Michael Zagaris are no lightweights. They're the real deal who shot for Sports Illustrated, the NBA, MLB, San Francisco Chronicle, The Sporting News, Topps, Upper Deck, etc.
 
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Michael Clark

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Yeah, because in 2008 Sony FF MILCs were already such a thing! :ROFLMAO: :LOL: :rolleyes::ROFLMAO::LOL:
 
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Michael Clark

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Very good points guys.

Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.

Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?

Who said anything about July 23?

I said it's possible we will see an R1 in late 2021 or very early 2022, just in time for the Winter Games. (That's assuming the 2022 Winter Olympics go on as scheduled, which is becoming less and less certain as the pandemic continues to worsen with new variants of the virus that are more easily spread emerge.)

Tokyo is not going to happen, at least not in any way that is remotely recognizable as a true quadrennial Olympiad.
 
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Michael Clark

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I was speaking of precedence specific to flagship Canon/Nikon bodies product cycles. :ROFLMAO:

These bodies are released a few quarters before the Olympics or other major sporting event to give working photogs time to verify, familiarize and practice on these new cameras. Whatever bugs they discover can be rectified weeks before the event via firmware or hardware fix.

For 2020 it was only disrupted a month after its February release. For some countries their first shipment only arrived after the lifting of their country's lock down as late as June.

There has been less new SKUs of point&shoot, SLR in the past 24 months than the years prior to it.

What the camera brands are doing now is increasing the SKUs of full frame and reducing number of SKUs of anything smaller.

When there were 3-4 SKUs of APS-C body lines today there were 5-8 SKUs years ago.

Again, precedence has been totally disrupted by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the resulting COVID-19 pandemic. These are not normal times.
 
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Aussie shooter

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Very good points guys.

Let us see who will be right between now and 23 July. I'm with the business case.

Anyone want to hazard a guess on how much the R1 will sell for? Will it directly compete with the $4,499 Sonya9 II, keep to $6,499 or be around $7,149?
It will not be a competitor for the A9 series. The R5 already does that. The R1 will be a true heavy duty, hardcore/built like a brick outhouse allweather/all conditions workhorse. And as such will be priced substantially higher than an A9
 
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dolina

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Who said anything about July 23?

I said it's possible we will see an R1 in late 2021 or very early 2022, just in time for the Winter Games. (That's assuming the 2022 Winter Olympics go on as scheduled, which is becoming less and less certain as the pandemic continues to worsen with new variants of the virus that are more easily spread emerge.)

Tokyo is not going to happen, at least not in any way that is remotely recognizable as a true quadrennial Olympiad.
I hope they decide to bump Tokyo to 2024 and Paris to 2028.

I specified 23 July as that's when the rescheduled 2020 Games would open.

I wonder if there is enough demand after the Summer Games for a R1.

For the 2022 Winter Games I think they should move it to 2023 or 2026?
 
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