unfocused said:
K said:
Apparently, some people here have no idea of internet sales and marketing works.
I think people understand it a lot better than you think.
K said:
Preorder sales numbers are always wildly inflated as many people preorder from several retailers in order to increase the odds they get their hands on the camera earlier.
Wow, that's an interesting rationalization that contradicts your bold prediction that this camera would be a failure.
People are so desperate to get their hands on the camera that they place orders with multiple retailers, yet the camera is a failure?
Even if such behavior occurs, it is irrelevant because we are only referencing one retailer's orders. If a buyer ultimately takes delivery from B&H or Adorama, they are still taking delivery.
Pre-sales are high with a new release, not because of multiple orders but because of pent-up demand.
It's too early to know for sure, of course, but robust pre-sales at nearly $4,000 a pop seems to refute your prediction of failure.
K said:
...Amazon isn't basing that on all-time sales. If that were the case, then the 5DS in preorder alone has surpassed the total sales numbers of the 5D3. Whomever believes that hasn't got a clue.
Or perhaps, anyone who thinks someone would believe that doesn't have a clue.
Amazon uses rolling sales figures. It an effective way to get an accurate picture of changing opinions or behavior.
They select a set time period and add in the latest numbers at the front end, while rolling off the numbers at the back end. Like all surveys, it's a snapshot in time, but it's a bit more accurate than simply picking a single arbitrary point in time.
BTW, as of this post, it has now gone to #2.
Is it really so painful to just admit that your prediction was wrong?
:
Demand: 10 willing and ready buyers
Supply: 10 retailers accepting pre-orders.
If each buyer preorders from one retailer - the total predorder demand is 10.
If each buyer preoders from ALL retailers, the total preorder demand is now 100.
In the end, only 10 cameras will be bought. However, those cherry picking preorder stats, might be misinformed thinking the demand is greater.
Not everyone will preorder from several sources, but some will. Some retailers will receive less preorders than others from unique buyers who are only attempting to do business with them. Stores that have lenient policies will attract the most preorders. Amazon is one of those.
Either way, the numbers are inflated.
Next,
Yes, Amazon uses a snapshot. Most preorder items out there, even those which fail or are mediocre in sales, show strong preorder numbers. It also isn't beyond Amazon to fudge the numbers to create more hype and demand. Anyone who knows retail, knows that a lot of preorders and backorders are never fulfilled due to buyer backing out.
Using Amazon preorder sales as any kind of real metric is flawed and foolish.
There's no doubt there will be a surge up front. Naturally, it's the newest thing from Canon in several years. It's 50MP monster. Between the curious, the bloggers, vloggers, websites, reviewers, mags and rags - that alone will sell the camera out in the beginning. But that is par for the course and true of anything. Then there are real pros and hard core enthusiasts who value the niche this thing satisfies for them. They will buy.
Doesn't seem appealing to anyone else. Not for the money, or the features.
It's a nearly $4,000 50MP 5D3 with worse ISO.
^ that's the nutshell of it.
For buyers, the 5DS has only one question and one question only - do you need/can you use 50MP? If yes, this is a camera for you. If no, it is a poor value. For most photography, all out resolution isn't the most important. It's always, always, always nice to have. But it isn't the most important. Especially if one is giving up other things in return.
The camera is only for those who plan to create the highest resolution photos with a DSLR, and who view all other capabilities as secondary or lesser than that. And even then, most will probably be from the Canon family already.
I'm thinking of this as neutrally as possible. Again, I'm a Canon user (5D3 and 6D). That is a lot of money for just high resolution. The killer is the weak ISO topping out at 6400. The FPS could be overlooked. No big deal there with so much data per photo. AF is perfectly fine. But the ISO is weak.
Forget all these idiotic dynamic range trolls. I agree that more DR is better. But I also agree that it just isn't that important as it is made out to be. However, good clean high ISO is important.
Sure, some are arguing, this is a STUDIO camera. You don't run even 6400 in a studio let alone more. I say - TRUE. But that again falls into my point that this is too specialized. Regardless of whether or not Canon released an incredibly good high ISO camera in the 5D4 - I think even a specialty camera should be a little more well rounded than that.