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ahsanford said:Ooh, if it comes out before the f/2.8L IS III, it'll be just like the 16-35 situation:
1) The 16-35 f/4L IS comes out run circles around prior UWA zooms Canon has offered to date. Finally, a very sharp UWA lens is available.
2) People buy the reasonably priced 16-35 f/4L IS in a hurry.
3) The 16-35 f/2.8L III comes out. Turns out it's even better than the f/4L IS (for some needs).
4) People freak out a little. Some bought the 16-35 f/4L IS when they really needed f/2.8 but gave up on an f/2.8 replacement happening anytime soon. Others want to future proof their lineup and go f/2.8 just because they might start shooting sports or astro sometime down the road. In either case, Canon + GAS may end up seeing folks buy both lenses.
Now replace every 16-35 reference above with 70-200. They might try to do this again.
The only difference is that this is that 70-200s are the beating heart of Canon's lens dominance. Disregarding the safari-money 200-400, Canon's various 70-200s are the strongest and deepest part of Canon's zoom lens lineup. Surpassing the current offerings will be no small feat.
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I don't think it's a cynical marketing decision, I think it's far easier to build and design an f4 zoom lens than an up scaled f2.8. So it makes sense to use the f4 development to get the technology right and then focus on equipping that tech to a new f2.8 design, spending your limited resources in getting the optics and build right.
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