Canon EOS 7D Mark III Coming First Half of 2018 [CR2]

[ahsanford]

So, apparently, most here are satisfied enough with 7DII IQ to think IQ is a side issue for an upgrade?

No no, I think most concede that a sensor 7D2 upgrade is in order. Some would argue that simply dropping an (on-chip ADC) 80D sensor into a 7D2 would be a very nice bump in performance. (I think that move would be fool's gold and look good to the DXO DR types, but I think the 7D2 sensor outperforms the 80D at the ISO values that matter for sports/wildlife -- please correct me if I am mistaken.)

So the issue in my mind is not whether there is room for 7D2 IQ improvements -- I think we all believe there is. The issue is whether the Canon will or will not lose business if it doesn't deliver those improvements until 2019. Conservative stick-to-the-plan Canon would not shuffle the pipeline order without good reason, so the $64,000 unknown remains how well the D500 is selling and who they are selling it to (in-the-fold Nikonians vs. Canon conversions).

- A

 

[ahsanford]

Side topic: if scenario #2 in my list above turns out to be the case, how much of that pressure could simply be mitigated by Canon releasing that relatively inexpensive 'longer than 400mm' zoom instead of putting out a 7D3?

I think it's a decent wager that the 7D3 + longer zoom would be released together, don't get me wrong, but for the sake of argument, if a $2000-ish EF 200-500 f/5.6L IS* should surface later this year, would there still be a screaming need for a 7D3 in 2018?

- A

*P.S. Please no 'that lens will cost $3k+', 'it'll be to 600mm', etc. discussion for now if you don't mind. I'm just trying to tease out where more of the threat to Canon is -- that shockingly inexpensive 200-500 VR or the D500 itself. Thanks.

 

[AdamBotond]

If it was released yesterday, it would have been too late IMO. While I doubt that many have jumped ship to Nikon for the more appealing D500, I do think that Canon has lost some business here. Potential 7D III buyers can get second-hand 1D X or even 1D mark IV cameras at low prices these days and Canon won't gain a thing on those second-hand (re)sales. Flagship users may endure that longer-than-usual product cycles, as there is nowhere to step up to in the Canon line-up for them, but almost all other users have many alternatives in the line-up. By so long cycles, Canon is loosing income even if most users will stay true to the brand.

 

[jolyonralph]

Now, here's a question.

What if Canon were to do two versions of the 7D Mark III, one with a 24 megapixel sensor using their current 3.7µm CMOS tech, and a 7D Mark IIIS for high sensitivity with a 12mpx sensor using the same 5.7µm pixel CMOS as on the 5D Mark IV sensor.

Assuming all else is equal, what would you prefer?

 

[privatebydesign]

If it was released yesterday, it would have been too late IMO. While I doubt that many have jumped ship to Nikon for the more appealing D500, I do think that Canon has lost some business here. Potential 7D III buyers can get second-hand 1D X or even 1D mark IV cameras at low prices these days and Canon won't gain a thing on those second-hand (re)sales. Flagship users may endure that longer-than-usual product cycles, as there is nowhere to step up to in the Canon line-up for them, but almost all other users have many alternatives in the line-up. By so long cycles, Canon is loosing income even if most users will stay true to the brand.

I'd disagree with that. I live in a very popular birding area and there is no doubt the D500 200-500mm combo is hurting the 7D MkII 100-400 MkII combo, further, the people who do this as a hobby, as I see them, are not interested in secondhand anything, they want the latest and greatest and a secondhand 18mp 1DX or even older and less capable 1D MkIV are not options.

At this point the saving grace for Canon in this area is the 400 DO MkII and it's performance with TC's, I am amazed at the number of them I see every time I go out.

 

[ajfotofilmagem]

What if Canon were to do two versions of the 7D Mark III, one with a 24 megapixel sensor using their current 3.7µm CMOS tech, and a 7D Mark IIIS for high sensitivity with a 12mpx sensor using the same 5.7µm pixel CMOS as on the 5D Mark IV sensor.
Assuming all else is equal, what would you prefer?

I could choose a "low light monster APS-C", but I know there are quite a few people with similar taste to mine.

Just watch the Sony A7S, which although it is a low light monster, is not a sales champion in its category. And look, this thing recording 4K in a small package.

 

[Jopa]

A few new Canon cameras every year! Hope not every 6 months like Sony
Jokes aside - great news. Hope a 5dsr2 will follow.

 

[ahsanford]

Now, here's a question.

What if Canon were to do two versions of the 7D Mark III, one with a 24 megapixel sensor using their current 3.7µm CMOS tech, and a 7D Mark IIIS for high sensitivity with a 12mpx sensor using the same 5.7µm pixel CMOS as on the 5D Mark IV sensor.

Assuming all else is equal, what would you prefer?

The market answer: How does the A7S II sell vs. the A7R II amongst stills-only shooters?

My personal answer: People make great statements here about keeping resolution low for a host of IQ reasons, but it's been my observation that few folks deliberately give up resolution once they've gotten used to it. So if you told the people on this forum the 7D3 (whatever you want to call it) has only 12 MP to maximize IQ, everyone would hang on to their 7D2s or give the D500 a much deeper look. I'd guess many would expect that cameras shouldn't deliver less detail as time marches forward.

However, In your two-tiered position above, virtually everyone would take the resolution unless there was a dramatic 'something else' at play -- 3x the buffer if you kept the pixel count down, integrated astro features, higher yet fps levels, etc.

- A

 

[x-vision]

My personal answer: People make great statements here about keeping resolution low for a host of IQ reasons, but it's been my observation that few folks deliberately give up resolution once they've gotten used to it.

Yup, that's me. The 7DIII will need to have a 24MP sensor for me to consider it (I now have the 80D).

But if Canon puts a 24mp sensor in the 7DIII, it would be very hard to achieve a much better ISO than the 80D.
If they somehow manage more than 1/3 EV stops of improvement, it would be quite an achievement.

 

[applecider]

There was an interview with a canon executive about two tears ago who indicated that their goal was to lower the time between refreshing the pro bodies as technology matured. At least that is my reading of it, lacking other insight to canons mind his replies should be our guide.

Dave echelons spoke with Masada Maeda from canon when asked about the future and upper end refreshes he says:
"MM: Well, I don’t have all of the detailed data, and so let me just give you my personal view on this question. For those users who have the interchangeable-lens DSLRs, the purchasing cycle, to start with, was not very short, so they would use the same camera for several years. So this would also cover your next question as well. <laughter> In terms of the camera model change cycle, I think that would differ based on the characteristics of each camera. So in terms of our high-end cameras, we will do our model change when we are able to embed the functionality and performance that we are aiming for. For entry level models, of course we will do the model change when we come out with new features or new performance. But at the same time, for the entry level models there is a lot of competition, and so we also have to work on cost reductions. Once we are able to do these cost reductions, that would be another opportunity for model change."

Interview
http://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2015/09/16/canon-maeda-promises-eos-m-enthusiasts-more-aps-c-lenses-new-printers

In another part of that interview he states that AF moduals are determined largely by size, perhaps explaining the SL2 keeping the nine point, at least that was his thinking in 2015. He did not directly address specific models just explains the down stream migration of AF features.

 

[unfocused]

There was an interview with a canon executive about two tears ago who indicated that their goal was to lower the time between refreshing the pro bodies as technology matured. ...

... So in terms of our high-end cameras, we will do our model change when we are able to embed the functionality and performance that we are aiming for....

I'm not reading that in the same way you are. It sounds to me that he is saying that pro-level bodies will only get refreshed when new technology has been sufficiently tested and perfected to be reliably incorporated into pro-level bodies. In other words, pro-level camera bodies are refreshed when they have technology they want to incorporate into the bodies, rather than being determined by marketing goals and the need to offer consumers something "new" on a regular basis.

That could mean longer or shorter refresh cycles, depending on their development of technology.

 

[Otara]

Side topic: if scenario #2 in my list above turns out to be the case, how much of that pressure could simply be mitigated by Canon releasing that relatively inexpensive 'longer than 400mm' zoom instead of putting out a 7D3?

I think it's a decent wager that the 7D3 + longer zoom would be released together, don't get me wrong, but for the sake of argument, if a $2000-ish EF 200-500 f/5.6L IS* should surface later this year, would there still be a screaming need for a 7D3 in 2018?

- A

*P.S. Please no 'that lens will cost $3k+', 'it'll be to 600mm', etc. discussion for now if you don't mind. I'm just trying to tease out where more of the threat to Canon is -- that shockingly inexpensive 200-500 VR or the D500 itself. Thanks.

In my neck of the woods Id say the general presence of 150-600mm's has been the real change, rather than the Nikon. So most wanting a low cost zoom have already done that, making the D500/7D3 more interesting.

 

[ahsanford]

I'm not reading that in the same way you are. It sounds to me that he is saying that pro-level bodies will only get refreshed when new technology has been sufficiently tested and perfected to be reliably incorporated into pro-level bodies. In other words, pro-level camera bodies are refreshed when they have technology they want to incorporate into the bodies, rather than being determined by marketing goals and the need to offer consumers something "new" on a regular basis.

That could mean longer or shorter refresh cycles, depending on their development of technology.

The FF bodies don't come out when Chris Knight gets around to delivering 5 Megawatts.

It's "5 Megawatts by mid-May, Chris."

Canon has a rough ball-park schedule for when each rig is supposed to land. This lets them avoid having two bodies fight over market attention at the same time and avoid having a huge hole in their release calendar, etc.

I'm not saying it's all locked in and executed -- getting performance levels to improve / costs to be manageable / quality to be of the appropriate level, etc. takes a great deal of work. And altogether new product lines need a ton of market research and form factor / ergonomics work to dial-in. But the notion that Canon will sit back until they can put a dagger through the ribs of their competitors is not how they operate. With Canon, it's very much a small, incremental continuous improvement game coupled with a fight on all fronts / 'yeah, we have one of those*' sort of skin-in-the-game global presences.

- A

*P.S. Except in FF mirrorless.

 

[unfocused]

I'm not reading that in the same way you are. It sounds to me that he is saying that pro-level bodies will only get refreshed when new technology has been sufficiently tested and perfected to be reliably incorporated into pro-level bodies. In other words, pro-level camera bodies are refreshed when they have technology they want to incorporate into the bodies, rather than being determined by marketing goals and the need to offer consumers something "new" on a regular basis.

That could mean longer or shorter refresh cycles, depending on their development of technology.

The FF bodies don't come out when Chris Knight gets around to delivering 5 Megawatts...

...With Canon, it's very much a small, incremental continuous improvement game coupled with a fight on all fronts / 'yeah, we have one of those*' sort of skin-in-the-game global presences...

This isn't about what you or I think Canon's strategy for technological development is. This is about what Canon said their strategy is. Whether the statement is accurate or merely public relations speech is irrelevant. I'm simply pointing out that "Applecider's" interpretation of the quote is different than what I believe the plain language states.

To further clarify, I read the statement as saying that consumer DSLR (whatever that may mean) releases are driven largely by marketing strategies. Rebel models are released on a regular basis because the market demands that Canon have something "new" to offer consumers.

I believe the interviewee is saying that the schedule for pro-level cameras is based on their product development cycle. I never said that their development teams get to set their own schedules and that isn't what the quote would indicate. Rather, (my interpretation) is that they identify new or improved technology that they want to include in the next version of the 1DX and then set about making that happen. Nothing in that statement or my interpretation of it means that the R&D team doesn't have deadlines to meet. It simply means that they aren't releasing a 1DX every year just to have something new in the market.

One could even go so far as to rather unkindly interpret this as a slap at Sony, which does seem to release high-end models without much significant difference from generation to generation.

 

[RickWagoner]

dual cards slots will be included. Touch screen but i have not seen a flippy screen just the same screen on the 5d4. Same body and same battery grip as 7d2. units have been tested with 24mp sensor but if canon waits long enough there is talk the production 7d3 will get 26mp or more.

the D500 is killing it in sales, hell before the D500 came out Canon was having issues of 70D taking sales away from 7d2 back in the day. Canon responded with the sd/wifi card to prolong the 7d2 into 2018 but it is not working as they hoped.

Canon will not wait 5 years to upgrade the 7d2 like they did with the 7d1..

The bold bit above is the entire story here. Do we have data to back that up?

I am not doubting you -- it seems a formidable camera -- but do we know it is really kicking Canon's tail or if it is simply bringing the long-neglected Nikon 'pro APS-C' birder/wildlifers back into the fold? Is it stealing market share or is it just a case of shifting faithful Nikonians into a new price point?

We're starved for market data here, so it's hard to peg if:

[list type=decimal]
[*]This rumor is BS


[*]This rumor is true, and Canon is actually accelerating its plans with the 7D3 due to market forces (i.e. the D500)


[*]This rumor is true, and Canon is simply deploying the 7D3 seemingly sooner to us because of the 5 year lifecycle for the 7D1 was an exception*, outlier, etc. and the 7D2 lifecycle is actually more in the line with the other major rigs on a traditional-ish 4 year timetable.

*this pertains to the unique market situation around the whole earthquake / Nikon abandoning the segment without a D300S follow up / the decision to do a firmware 'lifecycle extension' to the 7D1, etc.


[*]This rumor is true, and Canon has found the means/resources to accelerate its development pipeline as it sees the ILC market as having bottomed-out and it believes that now is the time to go big and saturate the market with new bodies. (I'm not buying this at all.)



[*]This rumor is true, but some important new product slated for 2018 had a major delay or problem, and the 7D3 was brought forward to prevent a 'hole' in the pipeline from leaving Canon looking bad next year. (This is wild speculation, feel free to run with this nutty idea )
[/list]

Almost all my money is on #1 above, perhaps #2 -- but again, the public never sees market data in any appreciable depth that would be able to verify this.

Curious to see where everyone's heads are on this. What's your guess?

- A

i am not sure what i can provide to back up what i say besides look into my old posts? I have seen the 7d3 in action last year when a few of us where testing some rubber seals on it, though our test versions are not complete production run machines they are usually close to what becomes the production version. Again look into my old posts. Back then the 7d3 was slated to be released this year but Canon Corporate released the sd/wifi card to stall the release after the time people had the units to test. Companies pull back releases for a number of reasons even at the last second sometimes (Nikon had a Production ready D400 but cancelled it right before the announcement then reworked it into the D500 with the D5's focusing system).

I know sales numbers of some of their gear and i know corporate numbers of some of the Nikon stuff also, both Canon and Nikon people usually are friends and share such talk esp with third party or sub contractor builders or testers.

The thing that interests me is what is Canon going to do with the sensor of the 7d3. Back last year the testing units had the 80D sensor but now that Canon is using it down the line up makes me question if they have a smoother and refined version at 24mp going in or are they going to up the mp count in it?

 

[ahsanford]

i am not sure what i can provide to back up what i say besides look into my old posts? I have seen the 7d3 in action last year when a few of us where testing some rubber seals on it, though our test versions are not complete production run machines they are usually close to what becomes the production version.

Excuse me -- you are a tester/supplier/partner with Canon on the 7D3 and you are free to talk about the product openly, sans NDA?

No disrespect, but you could imagine some skepticism on our part for such a claim.

- A

 

[zim]

i am not sure what i can provide to back up what i say besides look into my old posts? I have seen the 7d3 in action last year when a few of us where testing some rubber seals on it, though our test versions are not complete production run machines they are usually close to what becomes the production version.

you are was...

Fixed that for Rick ;D


Is that really how rubber seals are tested on basically consumer products in 201# ?

 

[Jopa]

i am not sure what i can provide to back up what i say besides look into my old posts? I have seen the 7d3 in action last year when a few of us where testing some rubber seals on it, though our test versions are not complete production run machines they are usually close to what becomes the production version.

you are was were ...

Fixed that for Rick ;D


Is that really how rubber seals are tested on basically consumer products in 201# ?

Grammar nazi correction.

 

[Don Haines]

i am not sure what i can provide to back up what i say besides look into my old posts? I have seen the 7d3 in action last year when a few of us where testing some rubber seals on it, though our test versions are not complete production run machines they are usually close to what becomes the production version.

Excuse me -- you are a tester/supplier/partner with Canon on the 7D3 and you are free to talk about the product openly, sans NDA?

No disrespect, but you could imagine some skepticism on our part for such a claim.

- A

Could be......

We used to test antennas in an anechoic chamber, but decided to let some random stranger half way around the world test them by walking around with them instead.....

We test radios for overheating by leaving them is a car with the windows rolled up on a sunny day as we found it worked better than putting them in one of the environmental chambers and using heat probes and thermal cameras to see what is going on.....

Yes, there is some skepticism......

 

[David_B]

Count me in if Canon expands the number of AF points that work at F/8 with all lenses. Like if the entire center cluster would do F/8. This really helps with TCs for extra reach. The 1.4x plus Sigma 100-400 gets me out to almost 900mm at F/9. It's be awesome if that would work with a third party TC and F/8 AF! Come on Canon, make me upgrade from the 80D!