Given that Canon is not losing ILC market share to Sony, what you see doesn’t match reality.
That’s also not direct evidence to contradict the anecdotal claim that Canon and Nikon shooters are switching to Sony in large numbers.
1. Sony’s marketshare has dramatically increased over the past five years.
2. Nikon’s marketshare has decreased dramatically over the same period.
3. Canon’s marketshare has also decreased and fluctuated over the same period.
4. New shooters and retiring shooters also play a factor.
5. Shooters can be switching 1 to 1 for net zero gain.
I could get far into this but your rebuttal isn’t one based in logic. We don’t have the direct information to directly object to or prove that there is a migration of Canon and Nikon shooters moving to Sony. We have inferred conclusions and anecdotal evidence so that’s why we see these claims on here so often. Personally my experience with the pros I work with reflects a move from Canons and Nikon to Sony, Fuji, and Panasonic and not the other way around. This is reality and also can be seen in marketshare.
At the foundation of this claim I believe is the idea that Pro and Amateur photographers who are spending the most money in the camera market are slowly moving to Sony. From all indications, I believe this to be true.
How can this be true and Canon still maintain their strong marketshare in units sold? I believe it is in their entry level market. One which overall is dramatically contracting and a reason for worry among a lot of us. It’s not a secret Canon is bleeding profit right now. I could be wrong, so please correct me, Sony is doing relatively better financially, but again, we don’t have the information for good conclusions. As a percentage of total units sold, the entry level offerings from Nikon and Sony I believe will affect their marketshare more than Canon.
Revenue marketshare, while also doesn’t tell us much, can at least be another indicator on these questions.
The fact that Nikon and Canon jumped into the full frame mirrorless market, to me, shows that they feel it’s worth their long term effort to compete with Sony.
I’m curious if NO ONE was leaving the big two for Sony, what would be the incentive to invest so much R&D into full frame mirrorless and release half baked cameras that are generations behind Sony?
What would Canons marketshare be today if not for Sony’s mirrorless full frame success? The fact is, Sony’s marketshare has increased. It has to come from somewhere. New shooters, Canon & Nikon shooters, and other brands as well.