DSLR ? - thinking out loud ....

[Clayton]

According to the Wall Street Journal DSLR sales fell in fiscal 2013 by 10%. Pocket size point and shoot cameras by even more and DSLM (mirror-less) cameras by only about 3%.

All of this is in part due to smart phone cameras of course. In the case of DSLM’s a 3% drop could easily be the economy, but a 10% drop in the case of DSLR’s is more representative of a market trend. Canon of course is only one player in the market but its one of the biggest players. The 10% represents every manufacture of DSLRs world wide.

Still the question is, what does it mean? It depends, if the 10% slides down to 11-13% then the DSLR market is not dead, but likely dying.

SONY’s full frame mirror-less camera A7s is being closely watched by the camera market. A recent announcement by SONY regarding a new CMOS sensor (yet unreleased) is going to use faster readouts and thereby a significant reduction in issues with rolling shutter distortions.

I predict that Canon may take the whole rebel line to mirror-less design. Or a major product line re-alignment of come kind. Either way I think the clock is ticking on DSLR cameras not sure when that might start to happen. The cameras and lens’s are now (as compared to other technology) to heavy and bulky for many and the purely professional market alone is just not large enough to sustain that market. What of all that DSLR glass? Thats a pretty heavy investment for sure. It might be the 5D and 1DC may be all that survives of that stuff.
SONY an Panasonic has already proved there are plenty of compelling choices for interchangeable lens cameras without DSLR technology.

I still think that if the DSLR market slides even two percentage points Canon will have to make a move.

 

[Dylan777]

It doesn't mean anything. The last thing I want to do is attaching my 85 f1.2, 24-70 f2.8, 70-200 f2.8 IS or 400mm on that tiny mirrorless. Don't get me wrong, it's nice size for 35mm and 55mm, everything else seem to be unbalance.

As owner of a7r + FE 55mm, I'm just speaking at loud

 

[Don Haines]

mirrorless does not mean tiny bodies.... there is no reason Canon can not make an APS-C mirorless camera identical in size to the 7D or a FF mirrorless the same size as a 5D3... and they can also choose to continue with the EF mount so all those lenses will continue to be valid.

Technology can make things smaller, but ergonomics tells us that the 5D3/6D/7D are at the sweet spot of design size... make it too big or too small and it does not feel right and the controls do not properly fit the hands...

 

[Clayton]

mirrorless does not mean tiny bodies.... there is no reason Canon can not make an APS-C mirorless camera identical in size to the 7D or a FF mirrorless the same size as a 5D3... and they can also choose to continue with the EF mount so all those lenses will continue to be valid.

Technology can make things smaller, but ergonomics tells us that the 5D3/6D/7D are at the sweet spot of design size... make it too big or too small and it does not feel right and the controls do not properly fit the hands...

Thats a good point and its also a very individuall thing. My hands need more room, another photographer I know is just the opposite. Your point about lens's is good and that might work. In the end however the market will vote with their wallets of course. Its a very exciting time and the market is moving very fast. Canon is iconic but they still have to be very careful there is much at stake.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

The actual figures are available for everyone to see. You can quote the statistics to show two totally different things, so pick and choose. Use the actual numbers rather than a Wall Street article written by someone trying to slant things his way.


For example:


DSLR Production in 2013 was 13,635,101 cameras valued at 398,781,791,000 Yen


Mirrorless production in 2013 was 3,182,694 cameras valued at 81,889,562,000 yen, or about 20% of DSLR Sales.


This was a drop in production of 9.1% for DSLR's and 7.4% for Mirrorless.


Cameras Actually shipped to Dealers tell a different story. there were cameras piling up in warehouses, so the cameras shipped (presumably ordered by Dealers to sell) indicates the level of sales, or at least dealer stocking.


Shipments of DSLR's dropped by 14.7% while Mirrorless dropped by 16.4%


See what I mean? I'd say that shipments are most akin to sales, and that manufacturers shipped 16.4% fewer mirrorless and 14.7 fewer DSLR's in 2013.


That tells a different story.


http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

 

[Dylan777]

mirrorless does not mean tiny bodies.... there is no reason Canon can not make an APS-C mirorless camera identical in size to the 7D or a FF mirrorless the same size as a 5D3... and they can also choose to continue with the EF mount so all those lenses will continue to be valid.

Technology can make things smaller, but ergonomics tells us that the 5D3/6D/7D are at the sweet spot of design size... make it too big or too small and it does not feel right and the controls do not properly fit the hands...

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

mirrorless does not mean tiny bodies.... there is no reason Canon can not make an APS-C mirorless camera identical in size to the 7D or a FF mirrorless the same size as a 5D3... and they can also choose to continue with the EF mount so all those lenses will continue to be valid.

Technology can make things smaller, but ergonomics tells us that the 5D3/6D/7D are at the sweet spot of design size... make it too big or too small and it does not feel right and the controls do not properly fit the hands...

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

Which is why they are selling poorly in the USA and Europe. They are small, and buyers see them as poor quality because of this. For whatever reason, buyers in USA and Europe prefer large cameras, perhaps they want to look professional with their big rig, and believe they get better pictures, or maybe they can't operate tiny cameras with their large hands. Thats why Canon stopped selling new models of the "M" in the USA. No Sale.


Large bodied mirrorless cameras might sell better in the USA and Europe, but, so far, Canon and Nikon are not betting their $$$ on it.

 

[Zv]

People need different sized and spec'd cameras for different things. For some smaller and lighter means more freedom but for others it's just an inconvenience. Just going by my own feelings I have whittled my gear down to two systems - one full frame and one small mirrorless APS-C. I find that this combo offers the best of both worlds. I can't justify an APS-C DSLR anymore unless I was doing things like birds in flight or field sports and needed the reach and ergonomics.

I'm intrigued by the Sony offerings but then I think that there wouldn't be a whole lot of weight saving and it's not worth the hassle of buying into a whole new system of lenses and accessories. If I was starting out then maybe it would make sense. Ergonomically I find it nowhere near the comfort and ease of a 5DIII or a 7D. The A7 series is kind of in the middle in terms of size, not quite compact but not huge. You'll still need a bag for it, can't pocket it. (EOS M & 22mm is just about pocketable IMO).

Perhaps mirrorless rebels will be the next big thing but who knows. Seems people are quite happy to shoot with a rebel and a kit lens. In some ways the small EOS M perhaps doesn't give potential consumers the impression that it delivers IQ like a DSLR. People that don't understand about sensors will just think it's a compact camera with interchangeable lenses and bypass it for a rebel or Nikon xxxx (which is a professional looking camera for dirt cheap).

When I first bought my rebel t2i it took me a little while to realize that it was smaller in size than the higher up models like 60D / 7D as I bought it online. I got serious "claw" hand syndrome when shooting 1000+ shots in a day. Then I got a 7D and it finally made sense! So this is a real camera then? Hello friend!

 

[Dylan777]

mirrorless does not mean tiny bodies.... there is no reason Canon can not make an APS-C mirorless camera identical in size to the 7D or a FF mirrorless the same size as a 5D3... and they can also choose to continue with the EF mount so all those lenses will continue to be valid.

Technology can make things smaller, but ergonomics tells us that the 5D3/6D/7D are at the sweet spot of design size... make it too big or too small and it does not feel right and the controls do not properly fit the hands...

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

Which is why they are selling poorly in the USA and Europe. They are small, and buyers see them as poor quality because of this. For whatever reason, buyers in USA and Europe prefer large cameras, perhaps they want to look professional with their big rig, and believe they get better pictures, or maybe they can't operate tiny cameras with their large hands. Thats why Canon stopped selling new models of the "M" in the USA. No Sale.


Large bodied mirrorless cameras might sell better in the USA and Europe, but, so far, Canon and Nikon are not betting their $$$ on it.

I agree, making mirrorless bigger will not help the sale in US and Asia.

To exchange for smaller and lighter mirrorless bodies, people already sacrificed DSLR AF speed and AI servo tracking.

 

[Orangutan]

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

Perhaps the keys to sell mirrorless to you. I want the feature set of a mirrorless in an APS-C sized body. I want a brilliant EVF, with live histogram, zebras and focus peaking. I want to pick my AF pattern. I want a three-sensor (color separated) imaging system so we can dump the Bayer filter and double our light collection per unit area.

I'll bet you that right his minute, all the major manufacturers have legions of crones casting chicken bones to figure out what magic combination of size, ergonomics and features will make mirrorless a huge hit.

 

[Dylan777]

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

Perhaps the keys to sell mirrorless to you. I want the feature set of a mirrorless in an APS-C sized body. I want a brilliant EVF, with live histogram, zebras and focus peaking. I want to pick my AF pattern. I want a three-sensor (color separated) imaging system so we can dump the Bayer filter and double our light collection per unit area.
I'll bet you that right his minute, all the major manufacturers have legions of crones casting chicken bones to figure out what magic combination of size, ergonomics and features will make mirrorless a huge hit.

Once again, those are features that you want in mirrorless. Others are looking for small, light and easy to carry around.

I strongly believe I'm one of fews have bought and used higher-end mirrorless cameras more than any CR members here: rx1, rx100 II, x100s, EOS-M and a7r. Compact and high IQ is what people going for mirrorless. The features you mentioned are just features.

 

[Loswr]

The actual figures are available for everyone to see. You can quote the statistics to show two totally different things, so pick and choose. Use the actual numbers rather than a Wall Street article written by someone trying to slant things his way.


For example:


DSLR Production in 2013 was 13,635,101 cameras valued at 398,781,791,000 Yen


Mirrorless production in 2013 was 3,182,694 cameras valued at 81,889,562,000 yen, or about 20% of DSLR Sales.


This was a drop in production of 9.1% for DSLR's and 7.4% for Mirrorless.


Cameras Actually shipped to Dealers tell a different story. there were cameras piling up in warehouses, so the cameras shipped (presumably ordered by Dealers to sell) indicates the level of sales, or at least dealer stocking.


Shipments of DSLR's dropped by 14.7% while Mirrorless dropped by 16.4%


See what I mean? I'd say that shipments are most akin to sales, and that manufacturers shipped 16.4% fewer mirrorless and 14.7 fewer DSLR's in 2013.


That tells a different story.


http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

+1 for actual data. WSJ, like most media outlets (looking at you, Fox!), puts their own 'spin' on the data.

Worldwide, MILC sales are a small fraction of dSLR sales, and MILC sales seem to be declining faster , with the possible exception of 'high end' MILC (Sony a7 series, for example). MILC sales show no sign of 'the death of the dSLR'.

 

[Vossie]

I could imagine that eventually dSLRs will fade out, in the sense that dSLR style bodies would no longer be equipped with a mirror. With technologies improving, I think that eventually EVFs will have an unobservable lag time and resolution instistinguishable from an optical VF. By that time, EVFs may be preferred over OVFs because they can offer extra features such as focus peaking, "live view", histogram overlays , etc etc. and without the mirror, higher fps rates should be achievable. (Who on CR would not welcome an 1DM with 24 fps?)

Many may think that OVF will always be superior to EVFs because they are today, but a decade ago, many also thought that film would always be superior to digital.

I do not think this is driven by declining sales figures as in the OP, but more by ever advancing tech.

 

[Hillsilly]

I'm hoping Canon drops the Eos-M and pulls out of the mirrorless market entirely. That way, they can focus their R&D activities on improving and enhancing their DSLRs, camera features, sensors and lenses.

Why? We, as camera users, all benefit. We have the likes of Sony, Fuji, Olympus and Panasonic all developing interesting cameras with new features hoping to entice us over to their side. In the medium to long term, to keep its dominant share of serious camera users, Canon will need to fight back with their new camera improvements - whether that be better connectivity, improved sensors, better AF, better build quality, more affordable sports and wildlife lenses etc etc, it is all good.

 

[Loswr]

I'm hoping Canon drops the Eos-M and pulls out of the mirrorless market entirely. That way, they can focus their R&D activities on improving and enhancing their DSLRs, camera features, sensors and lenses.

I'd have to disagree. I really like my EOS M, in it's own right, but also as a small/light backup body that integrates with my Canon system.

 

[Don Haines]

I could imagine that eventually dSLRs will fade out, in the sense that dSLR style bodies would no longer be equipped with a mirror. With technologies improving, I think that eventually EVFs will have an unobservable lag time and resolution instistinguishable from an optical VF. By that time, EVFs may be preferred over OVFs because they can offer extra features such as focus peaking, "live view", histogram overlays , etc etc. and without the mirror, higher fps rates should be achievable. (Who on CR would not welcome an 1DM with 24 fps?)

Many may think that OVF will always be superior to EVFs because they are today, but a decade ago, many also thought that film would always be superior to digital.

I do not think this is driven by declining sales figures as in the OP, but more by ever advancing tech.

+1

 

[Don Haines]

The thing about Canon (and many consumers) is that they are conservative. When the day comes that mirrorless cameras offer better performance than DSLRs, and right now it is the AF and EVF that are lacking, the day of the DSLR will end. When they can make a better camera and sell it for less, where do you think the consumer will go?

I am particularly interested in what happens with the 7D2.... DPAF has the potential for superior autofocus to existing DSLRs.... and EVFs are getting close. There is a real possibility that this camera will be the tipping point.

 

[Lee Jay]

The problem is, you can never beat some aspects of an OVF with an EVF. How are you going to improve on zero lag, zero power use, virtually infinite dynamic range and color gamut?

EVFs suck power like crazy. You're going to need a battery breakthrough to replace OVFs as well, or an enormous battery that more than makes up for the size difference of removing the prism and mirror.

 

[aclectasis]

Comment Removed by Moderator

 

[Orangutan]

Smaller and lighter body are the primary keys to sell mirrorless cameras.

Perhaps the keys to sell mirrorless to you. I want the feature set of a mirrorless in an APS-C sized body. I want a brilliant EVF, with live histogram, zebras and focus peaking. I want to pick my AF pattern. I want a three-sensor (color separated) imaging system so we can dump the Bayer filter and double our light collection per unit area.
I'll bet you that right his minute, all the major manufacturers have legions of crones casting chicken bones to figure out what magic combination of size, ergonomics and features will make mirrorless a huge hit.

Once again, those are features that you want in mirrorless. Others are looking for small, light and easy to carry around.

And I said as much. The question is not what I want, or what you want, but what will make it profitable, hence viable.