EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]

[Eldar]

With their latest lens releases, Canon has shown that they are fully aware of what it takes to compete in this market. We also know that they are better at making money than any of the others. I´m crossing my fingers for a true D810 basher and if it is, it will not be cheap ...

 

[mrsfotografie]

I'm trying to think what features I would need in a MkIV and I can't think of any. The MkIII is a totally satisfactory stills camera for me, whereas the 5DII obviously had its shortcomings (AF, banding noise, and the little known internal mirror reflection with 'off-stage' light sources. The latter also occurs with the MkIII but very much less so.

So incremental improvements is what I'm expecting (I couldn't care less about video, wifi, gps and on-board facebook features)

What would be great is a completely and totally dust repellent mirror box so I never ever have specs of dust anymore. Even with utmost care I occasionally find something on there though the MkIII has so far managed to clean the sensor of offending dust at every power cycle.

 

[martti]

Probably there will be nano-coated dust repellent optical surfaces all over the new camera.
That would be a good thing.
BTW it is remarkable how good and businesslike the 5DIII feels after having shot with the Sony a6000.

 

[Maiaibing]

Canon was stunned when Nikon produced the D800 at a lower price than the 5DIII. I am certain Canon is doing everything they can to reverse that situation with the 5DIV

The reports I've seen suggest that the 5D3 vastly outsold the D800 line-up. It's much more likely that the D750 was produced to play catch-up with the 5D3. The D800 was (rightly, I believe) praised as a studio/landscape specialist camera, but I believe the 5D3 ate its lunch in the overall market.

There are to my knowledge no available 5DIII sales numbers. But since you have seen reports on 5DIII sales I strongly urge you to share them here since people are very eager to know the numbers.

What we do know is that Nikon said that their sales of interchangable lens cameras went up 50% 2012/13 (not specifying the D800's contribution to this). During this time Canon's DSLR sales fell from 9.2 mio units to 8.0 mio units (again no info on the 5DIII's contribution).

That Canon "was stunned" is a subjective interpretation of Canon's situation in the days after the launch of the D800.

 

[Maiaibing]

the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14.

How did that compare to their competitors?

Blank... if you read my post all the way it continues: "I do not know how Canon is doing measured on market share".

Then why did you write "I expect Canon's board members are seriously unhappy with the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14?" That is an utterly meaningless (even deceptive) statement without comparison to other vendors. If I'm on Canon's board and our DSLR sales drop 15%, but Nikon's and Sony's drop 25% then I'm probably satisfied that the company is doing well.

May I suggest some light reading? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

What a useless and uninformed comment is this? Why don't you just check up on Canon's financial releases?

Here are some facts:
Warning the market of Canon's falling "sales of its signature high-end cameras"
Not meeting earnings forcasts.
Profits down.
Shares down (in a market that saw overall 40% increase in share prices).

That's Canon DSLR business reality. If the board members are doing their job they should be on the backs of the camera dvision at each and every meeting.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/24/uk-canon-earnings-idUKBRE99N0CD20131024

 

[Maiaibing]

Anyhoo, this is what I'd sepculate:

1. 5Ds High-Megapixel for $4,999

Wow - that would certainly make my wallet's demand for moving over to Nikon increase by leaps and bounds!

Canon already outpriced itself once with the $3.500 5DIII what do you expext they will put into a 5Ds that will make people fork over $5.000? That's the price range of a 1D series Camera.

I got both my 5DII's very early after intro for $2.200 - just say'in.

Yeah who pays $5000 for some high MP but slug of a camera when since it's no good for action so much anyway you might as well just get an adapted Sony for a fraction of the price.

I am not very familiar with the SONY system. I consider Nikon the real competition. Their Camera line seems to be somewhat better on almost all takes in the enthusiast range and the bodies are cheaper. Do not see any significant difference in the overall lens lineup either except T/S lenses.

More for less as I see it.

 

[Synkka]

The actual Canon financial statement is not as bleak as that news article. See http://www.canon.com/ir/results/2014/rslt2014q3e.pdf

Now you wouldn't expect a Company to be too negative in their own financial statements, regarding the camera market they expect low end digital cameras to not do well, but are expecting recover in the interchangeable section.

Overall as a company they are still forecasting profit.

Do you read the figures differently?

 

[mrsfotografie]

Probably there will be nano-coated dust repellent optical surfaces all over the new camera.
That would be a good thing.
BTW it is remarkable how good and businesslike the 5DIII feels after having shot with the Sony a6000.

The a6000 is a nice compact mirrorless and it is surprisingly good as an alternative to an aps-c dslr. As you say the MkIII is a different beast altogether. It's the powerhouse that gets the job done every time.

 

[Synkka]

I'm trying to think what features I would need in a MkIV and I can't think of any. The MkIII is a totally satisfactory stills camera for me, whereas the 5DII obviously had its shortcomings (AF, banding noise, and the little known internal mirror reflection with 'off-stage' light sources. The latter also occurs with the MkIII but very much less so.

The banding on the 5D3 is about as bad as that on the 5D2. Whilst it is good to hear that the 5D3 meets all of your needs in a stills camera, for others (especially those that have used ML), it does not even come close.

So if the 5d3 doesn't meet your needs why stick with canon? Or is it that it does meet your needs and want more?

The grass is always greener on the other side. And there is no perfect camera you should keep that in mind

 

[martti]

Luckily, I do not have to run the international megaenterprise that Canon is today...I do not have the competence nor do I have the figures or the slightest idea of what is in the pipelines of their enormous R&D division. They are big in office supplies and the camera business accounts only for about 30% of their total figures.
They introduced new compact cameras which seems weird from where we are looking but possibly there is a growing market in Asian countries that we are not aware of.

They are arriving late to the mirrorless segment because they have established a 60% share in the pro and prosumer market. Unlike prosumers who have the luxury of changing their gears according to their affects, professionals look at the bottom line: With the stuff I got, can I sell my product or do I have to invest. What will be the returns of my investment? Should I go for the best possible result or should I just be a bit better than the next guy?

No company is too big to fall. Canon has been driven like a business for a long time with the long term focus on keeping its position in the market. It has been doing very well. Sony went through some heavy restructuring where the Japanese production lines were transferred to Thailand. There have been some quality concerns after that move. Nikon is facing some serious reprofiling since the shrinkage of the camera market has hit it to the core of its business –its revenues are 70% based on their opticals.

Why is this interesting?
Because people identify with the gear they use like sports fans do with their favorite football teams. Or ice hockey, if you are Canadian, excuse me and sorry. It is funny and it is human.
I guess I go and take some pictures of my neighbor's cat now with My Little Sony.
People like pictures of cats and ducks. I do, too.

 

[100]

Canon was stunned when Nikon produced the D800 at a lower price than the 5DIII. I am certain Canon is doing everything they can to reverse that situation with the 5DIV

The reports I've seen suggest that the 5D3 vastly outsold the D800 line-up. It's much more likely that the D750 was produced to play catch-up with the 5D3. The D800 was (rightly, I believe) praised as a studio/landscape specialist camera, but I believe the 5D3 ate its lunch in the overall market.

There are to my knowledge no available 5DIII sales numbers. But since you have seen reports on 5DIII sales I strongly urge you to share them here since people are very eager to know the numbers.

What we do know is that Nikon said that their sales of interchangable lens cameras went up 50% 2012/13 (not specifying the D800's contribution to this). During this time Canon's DSLR sales fell from 9.2 mio units to 8.0 mio units (again no info on the 5DIII's contribution).

That Canon "was stunned" is a subjective interpretation of Canon's situation in the days after the launch of the D800.

Are you comparing the same years?
Nikons fiscal year ends march 31, Canons fiscal year ends December 31 so on April 1st 2015 Nikon starts with fiscal year 2016 while Canon will still be in fiscal year 2015 for the next 9 months.
For a good comparison the period has to be exactly the same, especially for the 2012-2013 period because 2012 was the best year ever as far as sales numbers.

CIPA statistics can be found at http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

 

[saveyourmoment]

I am dreaming off a 1d..whatever.. with approx 50mp and the opportunity to change that slow beast by click and make it a 18-24mp fast 14pics/s 1dx successor. Meanwhile i shoot with what I've got with really nice glas! Make photos be an artist and don't hype the technic.... there are really great photos made with cameras which even can't compete with the phonecameras these days...

 

[lintoni]

And if you haven't read reviews where people are asking "What's with 'X'?" and similar things then you're not very widely read.

What a curious and wonderful world planet dilbert is...

 

[Loswr]

Sony has shown what is possible with new sensor technology whilst Canon hasn't updated theirs in many years and so on. That then leads to people defending Canon doing little or nothing in various areas whilst it leaves others exasperated.

Canon as shown what is possible with lens and optical technology, while Sony has done little or nothing in that area. Some people seem to think bare silicon sensors take pictures…

 

[Loswr]

the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14.

How did that compare to their competitors?

Blank... if you read my post all the way it continues: "I do not know how Canon is doing measured on market share".

Then why did you write "I expect Canon's board members are seriously unhappy with the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14?" That is an utterly meaningless (even deceptive) statement without comparison to other vendors. If I'm on Canon's board and our DSLR sales drop 15%, but Nikon's and Sony's drop 25% then I'm probably satisfied that the company is doing well.

May I suggest some light reading? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

What a useless and uninformed comment is this? Why don't you just check up on Canon's financial releases?

Since you bring up uninformed, have you checked their most recent financial information? I suspect he did, or he's a very astute guesser. What he stated that I highlighted above is almost exactly what they report – Canon a y/y drop of 15% on ILC/lenses, Nikon a y/y drop of 26% ILC/lenses.

I'm sure neither board is particularly pleased given the overall situation in the industry (as the CIPA data show), but Nikon's board has the added displeasure of watching their recent gains in market share erode and the gap between their sales and those of the market leader – a gap they have failed to close for 11 years – begin to widen again.

 

[Orangutan]

There are to my knowledge no available 5DIII sales numbers. But since you have seen reports on 5DIII sales I strongly urge you to share them here since people are very eager to know the numbers.

I believe you're correct that the manufacturers don't release sales numbers for individual models. I don't recall where, but someone did an automated series of snapshots of Amazon's top-selling DSLR list. Since these are updated hourly no one ranking is significant; however, the trend over time was that the 5D3 was ahead except for bumps right around the release of each D8xx model. Even now, with the 5D3 being rumored for replacement, it's two spots ahead of the cheaper and better-spec'ed D810, and just one notch below the new and well-regarded D750. (again, this is an hourly snapshot, so YMMV).

I think everyone wishes we had that data; however, barring the assistance of the the DPRK we're not likely to see it. Inferring from retailer information is all we have.

What we do know is that Nikon said that their sales of interchangable lens cameras went up 50% 2012/13 (not specifying the D800's contribution to this). During this time Canon's DSLR sales fell from 9.2 mio units to 8.0 mio units (again no info on the 5DIII's contribution).

Different fiscal years.

That Canon "was stunned" is a subjective interpretation of Canon's situation in the days after the launch of the D800.

Thanks for the clarification; however, I repeat that if they'd been stunned they'd have dropped the price of the 5D3.

 

[Loswr]

That Canon "was stunned" is a subjective interpretation of Canon's situation in the days after the launch of the D800.

Thanks for the clarification; however, I repeat that if they'd been stunned they'd have dropped the price of the 5D3.

They did drop the price of the 5DIII. After it had been out nearly 3 years, during which time Nikon released four new full frame cameras...and they dropped the price by ~10%. Yeah, Canon was 'stunned'... :

 

[Orangutan]

the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14.

How did that compare to their competitors?

Blank... if you read my post all the way it continues: "I do not know how Canon is doing measured on market share".

Then why did you write "I expect Canon's board members are seriously unhappy with the fact that Canon suffered double digit falling DSLR sales in 2012/13 and again in 2013/14?" That is an utterly meaningless (even deceptive) statement without comparison to other vendors. If I'm on Canon's board and our DSLR sales drop 15%, but Nikon's and Sony's drop 25% then I'm probably satisfied that the company is doing well.

May I suggest some light reading? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

What a useless and uninformed comment is this? Why don't you just check up on Canon's financial releases?

Since you bring up uninformed, have you checked their most recent financial information? I suspect he did, or he's a very astute guesser. What he stated that I highlighted above is almost exactly what they report – Canon a y/y drop of 15% on ILC/lenses, Nikon a y/y drop of 26% ILC/lenses.

I'm sure neither board is particularly pleased given the overall situation in the industry (as the CIPA data show), but Nikon's board has the added displeasure of watching their recent gains in market share erode and the gap between their sales and those of the market leader – a gap they have failed to close for 11 years – begin to widen again.

I must confess: not based on financial statements, just guesses pulled out of the aether. The only point I was making was that y/y losses were only relevant in comparison to competitors' financial health and the overall market.

 

[Maiaibing]

Are you comparing the same years?
Nikons fiscal year ends march 31, Canons fiscal year ends December 31 so on April 1st 2015 Nikon starts with fiscal year 2016 while Canon will still be in fiscal year 2015 for the next 9 months.
For a good comparison the period has to be exactly the same, especially for the 2012-2013 period because 2012 was the best year ever as far as sales numbers.

CIPA statistics can be found at http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

Would of course be better if we could compare directly. But trying to use the facts that are available to us surely beats unsubstantiated claims?

I have not tried to cross calculate on the basis of the overall CIPA numbers as its a black box numbers game as long as they are not sharing brand specific numbers. But I know that some analysts selling reports on the developments within the imaging industry actually do that.

However, there are other interesting CIPA info, which I am sure Canon is carefully studying. Such as that young buyers of digital cameras have dropped from more than half of total sales to less than 25% and that the small format interchangable lens cameras have made a lot more women buy into interchangable lens cameras.

 

[Loswr]

I must confess: not based on financial statements, just guesses pulled out of the aether. The only point I was making was that y/y losses were only relevant in comparison to competitors' financial health and the overall market.

Impressive…most impressive. ;D

The other factor to consider is that camera sales make up a much greater proportion of Nikon's overall revenue than they do for Canon.