How far will the 5DMKII drop in price?

[00Q]

I almost pulled the trigger last year at the end of December to buy a 5D MKII. Back then the price dropped a lot as people anticipated the release of the 5dMKIII which didnt come. That was the best price to buy a 2nd hand 5DMKII betwen £1000 and £1100. Since then it has risen in price to about £1300 now. It is starting to drop again with the announcement of the MKIII expected....

So the question is, lets say the MKIII gets announced tomorrow, how fast will the price drop on the MKII? The reason why Im not buying now is because I think the MKII will drop at least to the December price if not less so if I buy now I will lose out on about £200. But with lots of people waiting, they might keep the price up there for a while. If the price drop back in December follows the same logic as the drop in price following the MKIII announcemment then I should wait....

AHhhhhh.....well done people who have bought the MKII this year. At least u guys have pulled the trigger already and have had a deep breath!

 

[wickidwombat]

i think for you they'll make a special price of $100 per body
...

but more seriously I really think they will keep the model alive and price it just under $2k
becasue the new models will be $3k so its a nice price point and I am sure they will still sell well there

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

In the past, prices have gone up after a new higher priced model came out, and buyers realized that they did not want to pay $1k more for a smallish improvement. Eventually, used prices dropped, but new prices did not, they just sold out. The lowest prices can be about two months before the new body was released.

Canon had a really bad 4th quarter of FY 2100, and had high inventory. They dropped prices to clear some of the inventory, and then let them go up again once the quarter was over. We most likely will not see deals like that again unless the economy is much worse, and then, few of us would be able to consider buying one in any event.

You can look at their FY2011 report, and see what I mean.

 

[unfocused]

This is going to be unpopular but I agree with Mt. Spokane. If Canon keeps the Mk II in the lineup I don't think you will see a price drop on new ones.

Keep in mind that if they keep it, that doesn't mean they need or want to sell any. It will just be as an
Option and their main interest will be selling the Mk III. It will be used mainly to upsell customers to the MkIII.

 

[Mikedurg]

Well I was about to pull the trigger on the 5d mk II kit with the 24-105 and the price just went up $300. I put it in the cart at $2,899.00 about a week ago. Logged in today to buy and the price jumped to $3,199.00. Both prices reflect the current rebates. Hopefully B&H will give me the $2,899.00 going to give them a call tomorrow. The price however with the previous rebates was $2,799.00 so I don't think it will drop very far at all during the next 6-12 months.

 

[Marsu42]

In the past, prices have gone up after a new higher priced model came out, and buyers realized that they did not want to pay $1k more for a smallish improvement. Eventually, used prices dropped, but new prices did not, they just sold out. The lowest prices can be about two months before the new body was released.

That is a very interesting observation because my personal expectation is that with the amount of 5d2 bodies floating around and the fact that 5d people are rather well-off, there will be a large amount of used bodies available once the 5d3 is here.

Since I am might be getting a used 5d2 sometime in the future - is the fact "The lowest prices can be about two months before the new body was released" valid for used bodies, too?

 

[kamuscasio]

The price here in japan have been steadily dropping since a month ago.　Almost 1JPY per minute. But then, starting yesterday the price have gone up again. :'(

http://kakaku.com/item/00490111151/pricehistory/

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

In the past, prices have gone up after a new higher priced model came out, and buyers realized that they did not want to pay $1k more for a smallish improvement. Eventually, used prices dropped, but new prices did not, they just sold out. The lowest prices can be about two months before the new body was released.

That is a very interesting observation because my personal expectation is that with the amount of 5d2 bodies floating around and the fact that 5d people are rather well-off, there will be a large amount of used bodies available once the 5d3 is here.

Since I am might be getting a used 5d2 sometime in the future - is the fact "The lowest prices can be about two months before the new body was released" valid for used bodies, too?

The price of used depends entirely on how many step up and buy a new model. If a new model costs $1K more, and appears to be the typical Canon minor upgrade, prices will stay high. On the other hand, if it is seen as a big upgrade, and the price only jumps by $500, we might see prices drop a lot due to the many buyers.

I am thinking that if a worthwhile new model is announced, I will keep my camera as a backup, so it will not be on the market.

The original 5D was down to $1900 a couple of months before the MK II came out, then new price jumped several hundred dollars as the demand outstripped supply.

There are lots of people waiting to buy a used MK II, so both the new and used price will depend on supply and demand.

 

[Marsu42]

There are lots of people waiting to buy a used MK II, so both the new and used price will depend on supply and demand.

I guess you're right :-o ... I'll better stick with aps-c and am then free to buy a good 11-16 that won't work on ff.

 

[Maui5150]

Not sure it will go down by that much. It will go down, but all depends on the pricing of the new version.

1st, there is new versus used. If Canon discontinues that MK II version, then there is pressure for the price to go up, especially for those who may not be willing to invest $3000 on a body. Lots of people don't like to buy other people's problems, so as can be seen with a lot of discountinued items, sometimes they sell at a premium even.

For used markets, who knows. I still see 5D prices over $1000 and the 5D MK II has been out for how long?

I also think a lot of people jumped on the 5D MK II bandwagon with the sales and prices over the holidays. A lot of these consumers are not going to want to switch bodies a few months out, and I think most were planning to wait a year at least for either the 2012 holiday sale, or possibly mid 2013 when say the new version has dropped a little, had a round of two of firmware updates, and the dust has settled.

Right now if I wanted to sell my MKII, I would probably make $100 or $200 over what I pair 3+ months ago, so even if the price drops some... It still has to go down a lot more before I start losing money, and I have enjoyed the use of the camera now for 3+ months.

I think Cherry / Mint condition 5D MK IIs will sell in the 1700 - 1800 range, and ones with much more use, higher shutter actuations, etc, will be 1500 - 1600. I also think the demand will go UP in many case with people entering into the 5D MK II market expecting to upgrade in a couple of years when the MKIII starts to drop. There will be a lot of people who have had the T2i, T3i, etc that will be looking to go up, and I can see them more moving up to a 5D MK II then jumping up into the 5D MKIII .

There are a lot of people who have a certain "comfort" range for how much they will spend on a camera body. There are a lot less people willing to pay $3,000 than they are to pay $2000. There are also a lot more as you drop to $1500, etc

 

[iaind]

It may not drop at all if Canon decide to continue production. It all depends on the price structure of the new body 5dIII/X or whatever Canon calls it

 

[marekjoz]

What is sad in these prices speculations? If Canon decides to produce 5dmk2 after it's successor announcement it means that the price of new body will be very high. Why? Because if price would not be high and the product would be better in each aspect, then there is no sense to continue - nobody will buy it or Canon will lose on profit. If mk2 stays in production it will mean, that 5d3 is for those people, who can't resist anymore and must have a new product. So I wish they stop producing 5d2

 

[sb]

That is a very interesting observation because my personal expectation is that with the amount of 5d2 bodies floating around and the fact that 5d people are rather well-off, there will be a large amount of used bodies available once the 5d3 is here.

Large number of Mk2's are owned by pros who earn a living with them (i.e. not just people who are "well off"). And pros need a really good reason to upgrade (for example, my Mk2 will be more than good enough for me for another 3-4 years worth of weddings). Secondly, even if they do upgrade, they tend to keep the old bodies as backup. So I wouldn't be so sure about the flood of Mk2's on the market to be honest.

 

[marekjoz]

That is a very interesting observation because my personal expectation is that with the amount of 5d2 bodies floating around and the fact that 5d people are rather well-off, there will be a large amount of used bodies available once the 5d3 is here.

Large number of Mk2's are owned by pros who earn a living with them (i.e. not just people who are "well off"). And pros need a really good reason to upgrade (for example, my Mk2 will be more than good enough for me for another 3-4 years worth of weddings). Secondly, even if they do upgrade, they tend to keep the old bodies as backup. So I wouldn't be so sure about the flood of Mk2's on the market to be honest.

There are many "if canon doesn't announce sth in a week then I switch to nikon". I'm also surprised, that although such a declaration shows here everyday, there is no flood of used canon gear yet