With both the EU and the US bringing on huge fab capacity with dedicated demand in a few years for sovereign/national security reasons, then TMSC etc will potentially have financial problems.
David, agree with all your other points, but considering that EU and US governments are governments, not businesses, so I wouldn't be too concerned if I was TSMC. The governments can offer tax breaks and other incentives, but building and running single-digit nanometer fabs? I'll leave them a snowball's chance in hell for commercial success.
EU and US could consider making the same protectionist moves like in Brazil, where they demand that a certain amount of a product have to be produced in Brazil (or prove why you can't do that), otherwise the product is hit by a import fee. But it would make us all poorer from the fact.