In a shocking development, Canon adds the EOS R3, RF 16mm f/2.8 & RF 100-400mm f/5.6-8 IS USM to its list of products with a supply issue

[kaihp]

With both the EU and the US bringing on huge fab capacity with dedicated demand in a few years for sovereign/national security reasons, then TMSC etc will potentially have financial problems.

David, agree with all your other points, but considering that EU and US governments are governments, not businesses, so I wouldn't be too concerned if I was TSMC. The governments can offer tax breaks and other incentives, but building and running single-digit nanometer fabs? I'll leave them a snowball's chance in hell for commercial success.

EU and US could consider making the same protectionist moves like in Brazil, where they demand that a certain amount of a product have to be produced in Brazil (or prove why you can't do that), otherwise the product is hit by a import fee. But it would make us all poorer from the fact.

 

[privatebydesign]

Yikes. I totally get things like cameras and computer parts and even appliances because of logistics issues and containers being so scarce. I just never thought foam would be a major stumbling block, lol.

I know a property developer, they hav a 6 month lead time for sliding glass patio doors. You can buy a building lot from him and they will build you an entire house to your specs in 2-3 months, but if you want sliding patio doors it will be 6 months.

 

[privatebydesign]

David, agree with all your other points, but considering that EU and US governments are governments, not businesses, so I wouldn't be too concerned if I was TSMC. The governments can offer tax breaks and other incentives, but building and running single-digit nanometer fabs? I'll leave them a snowball's chance in hell for commercial success.

EU and US could consider making the same protectionist moves like in Brazil, where they demand that a certain amount of a product have to be produced in Brazil (or prove why you can't do that), otherwise the product is hit by a import fee. But it would make us all poorer from the fact.

But a Gov backed and subsidized manufacturer doesn't need to be a commercial success, they can disrupt the market by just suppling at cost or close to it if the R&D costs are paid for by the taxpayers.

 

[Ozarker]

But a Gov backed and subsidized manufacturer doesn't need to be a commercial success, they can disrupt the market by just suppling at cost or close to it if the R&D costs are paid for by the taxpayers.

3 words: postal service and Amtrak. Both have operated without commercial success for decades.

 

[AJ]

I get the feeling that Black Friday this year will be

 

[kaihp]

But a Gov backed and subsidized manufacturer doesn't need to be a commercial success, they can disrupt the market by just suppling at cost or close to it if the R&D costs are paid for by the taxpayers.

Well it surely depends on whether anyone wants to buy their products. If the product the Gov backed fab delivers is so inferior that the buyers cannot compete in the market, having said fab is moot.

 

[perplex1]

I ordered from B&H the following RF lens in June: 14-35 f4.0, 24-70 f2.8, 85 f1.2, 70-200 f2.8 and a 100-500. All but the 100-500 have arrived in July and August. I was lucky to get my R3 order in to B&H in the first couple minutes. I thought about ordering from Canon, but some of the comments about their opaque shipping communication scared me off. I figured B&H would get a good number in the first shipment.

thats the thing about B&H. I don't know what it is with them, but perhaps they are more interested in B2B business or have dedicated partners they fulfill first. I recall ordering items on day 1 first second arability and I've been burned time and time again. I've learned to target smaller box stores to get it faster (and sometimes cheaper due to no tax).

 

[perplex1]

The key word there is "shipped". The same way Samsung likes to claim they sell more phones than Apple which is not true because they quote "shipped" when in reality, a lot of it is just sitting on store shelves.

So you think the stores are in cahoots and just jam packing their shelves and backroom's with cameras to inflate sales? The cameras have to go somewhere man!

 

[perplex1]

I read an interesting article about COVID-19 and its impact on the supply chain in many industries.

Key point -- for the last forty years or so, manufacturing has followed the "just in time" philosophy of keeping minimal inventory of raw materials and components on hand and relied on quick shipments from suppliers. That's now coming back to bite manufacturers in the butt. The article gave several examples where companies cannot get simple things (one example was a tent manufacturer who couldn't get Velcro and thus their entire manufacturing line was disrupted.)

Complicating this is that most manufacturers no longer have warehousing space because they relied on shippers to get their components to them as they were needed. Now, companies are having to not only interrupt their manufacturing lines while they wait for parts, but they don't have any warehouse space to store the parts they can get (and of course they are now ordering more parts than what they need immediately, because they are uncertain if the parts will be available in the future). Warehouse space can't be added overnight and companies are in bidding wars to secure pre-existing space.

We've read about things like chip shortages, but we never think about all the other components that go into cameras and lenses that can hold things up, something as simple as securing the right screws to assemble a lens, rubber gaskets for weather sealing, Styrofoam pellets needed to make packaging etc. etc.

do you have a link to this article? would love to read it

 

[MORphoto.net]

As to your first statement, yep, patience is in order right now. As to your second statement, definitely true for many of us. And your final statement, concur and would add that while the R3 gets tweaked, we'll be getting that much closer to the R1, hopefully......in the interim, we can read some of the hands on R3 reviews, like Jeff Cable's Olympic experience with same. Here's the link to his blog:

Finally - my real world review of the new Canon R3 camera!

Jeff Cable Photography, Canon R3, mirrorless, Olympics, sports, review, real world

blog.jeffcable.com

True true... Thanks for the link!

 

[unfocused]

do you have a link to this article? would love to read it

I can't see to find it right now. It was either Reuters or Al Jazeera. If I find it again, I'll update this.

 

[jeanluc]

do you have a link to this article? would love to read it

I read a good one recently as well. A lot of companies have embraced Lean and “just in time” supply chain management in the last couple of decades. A lot of this stems from Toyota’s success. Apparently after the tsunamis in Japan, TMC re evaluated some of that to avoid supply chain disruption. As a consequence of this , they are in a better position than other car manufacturers. This of course has nothing to do with Canon, but it is interesting anyway

 

[dirtyvu]

I ordered from B&H the following RF lens in June: 14-35 f4.0, 24-70 f2.8, 85 f1.2, 70-200 f2.8 and a 100-500. All but the 100-500 have arrived in July and August. I was lucky to get my R3 order in to B&H in the first couple minutes. I thought about ordering from Canon, but some of the comments about their opaque shipping communication scared me off. I figured B&H would get a good number in the first shipment.

Yeah, I don't trust the Canon store for ordering anymore. It'll say in stock. and then you can't get it. I remember one time, it said in stock. I ordered all the way through and it then said there was no timeframe for when I would get it. Another time, almost same thing. I went all the way through checkout but this time I didn't submit when it switched availability at the last moment.

I have the 16 mm 2.8 preordered through Adorama.

 

[dirtyvu]

Yikes. I totally get things like cameras and computer parts and even appliances because of logistics issues and containers being so scarce. I just never thought foam would be a major stumbling block, lol.

Microsoft had a problem with making Xboxes because Ethernet ports are scarce...

the whole supply chain is messed up from raw materials all the way up to final delivery. you have dozens of ships sitting off the coast of California waiting to dock and unload. And because they're just sitting there, they're not sailing back to Asia to pick up more things. people think so simplistically when they say US government policies are the reason for inflation when so many things are outside the control of the US.

 

[mpmark]

Que the Northrup breaking news music

Man I don’t know how anyone can watch that channel. Runs any BS to make money on YouTube

 

[dirtyvu]

The human nature is to stockpile when you can't get enough. This is ludicrous when you think about it as it causes problems for everyone else. The real issue was the forecasting when covid hit. Everyone thought that demand would fall through the floor and cut their forecasts and suppliers scaled back manufacturing appropriately. People lost jobs etc.

When the consumer demand actually increased there was the triple whammy of trying to restart manufacturing with less staff, [hysical capacity issues across the board and scarcity forecasting with unrealistic orders for the medium term.

The chip shortage is more to do with profitability. Supply chain works on putting relationship effort into the strategic components that are expensive and strategic. When there are multiple manufacturers of cheap products then they are commoditised and treated as such. These missing chips are made with older technology and there are less fabs now compared to ones for high end chips. Moving designs for these older (wider line width) to new fabs with smaller lithography isn't trivial and the new fabs are running to capacity as well.

The chip manufacturers are making good money at the moment but there has been and will be again times where there is too much supply. With both the EU and the US bringing on huge fab capacity with dedicated demand in a few years for sovereign/national security reasons, then TMSC etc will potentially have financial problems.

It wasn't about restarting manufacturing with regards to chip manufacturers. Places like TSMC can't afford to have idle capacity because of the razor thin margins. So when companies like Ford cut back orders, TSMC found other people to fill the capacity. So when Ford realized their mistake when sales skyrocketed, it was too late and Ford had to get in queue for production.

There is plenty of demand for chip manufacturing on older processes. Hence almost all the chip manufacturers are doing well. You don't migrate to a higher process unless you need the performance.

You can't just bring on new factories. You need to have the resources and technologies to compete and bring new processes and technologies. Right now, TSMC is king because they put in the research and time to have the best processes. Intel has the money and resources to catch up but they are clearly in a catch-up position. And Taiwan is a major ally for the US and a key asset. Also, they're a thorn in China's side which also interests the US. If China decided to invade Taiwan, I say the US should evacuate and allow those refugees to come to the US. Their expertise would help a lot and keep them out of Chinese hands. Just like how the Germans, Austrians, etc. escaped Nazi Germany and built up the nuclear program in the US.

 

[melgross]

This isn’t really all that shocking. There was no question that these would be popular. Even Apple, which is supposed to have the best supply chain and product forecasting has problems meeting demand.

 

[David - Sydney]

David, agree with all your other points, but considering that EU and US governments are governments, not businesses, so I wouldn't be too concerned if I was TSMC. The governments can offer tax breaks and other incentives, but building and running single-digit nanometer fabs? I'll leave them a snowball's chance in hell for commercial success.

EU and US could consider making the same protectionist moves like in Brazil, where they demand that a certain amount of a product have to be produced in Brazil (or prove why you can't do that), otherwise the product is hit by a import fee. But it would make us all poorer from the fact.

Intel has already announced new $20B fab plant/investment in the US in response to the US government's Chips Act and executive order. Not to mention the DoD's RAMP-C project and will guarantee a level of demand. The USICA has provided $52b of funding for instance.

The EU are a little behind the US in their initiative to produce 20% of the worlds (by value) semiconductors. Intel is looking for substantial EU subsidies as part of their investment but have stated a ‘big, honkin’ fab’ for Europe beginning next year.

TMSC will probably stay ahead of Intel from a technology perspective etc but with substantial volume being added in both the EU and the US with probably artificially higher prices being paid by the government buyers will pump up Intel's profits. Of course, the added volume may just meet the total demand and balance will be there but forecasting is perilous.

The China-Taiwan situation is a flash point for global semiconductor supply so it becomes a national security for other countries.

 

[slclick]

3 words: postal service and Amtrak. Both have operated without commercial success for decades.

that was four, there goes your cred

 

[Cariboucoach]

I am a HUGE canon fanboy of 25+ years. ...

This pandemic is saving me money left and right. . . I was due for a new car in late 2020. . . put it off to 2021. . . .now I am pretty sure I won't touch 2022's either. This is saving me all kinds of money. . . . which I will use to buy a loaf of bread. . . or maybe a 2x4.