Mirrorless Camera & New Full Frame Coming Second Half 2012? [CR2]

[nentraC]

If I had to wager, a 5D3 minus the AF, frame rate and build quality. $1999 anyone?

The question would be why people should buy that instead of a second-hand 5D2.

I have a feeling that there is something missing from the story.

Because the second hand 5D2 is second hand.

If Canon can sell an entry level full frame camera, at a profit, why shouldn't they?

Sure about that second hand thing, weird to compare these.
And of course if they can sell it, they should, but don't you think it's way easier to just lower the price of the 5DmkII ?? That camera has been a killer for four years now, so I can honestly say that it would still be pretty damn good for some years as an "entry full-frame" !! What I wanna say is that if you need an "entry" full-frame camera and don't wanna go for the expensive mkIII, then it kinda means that you can deal with only 9 AF pts IMO ... Or maybe it's just about marketting and having the new fashion, anyway ...

In anny business it's just abut the mergins a company makes. Why produce a 3.5 years old DSLR wher the mergins drop whit evry price drop if u can build a new design for less $ and get higher mergins.

+ Canon can get a big WoW efeckt whit a "new entry level FF DSLR"
A company need's top end stuff at the cuting edge of technology so they hawe a WoW efeckt in the publick and the mid rage becomes a boost in sales.

I think the mid range has the perfect ratio of mergins and sales nubers so that Canon makes the most $ at the price range of 1200-2300$

 

[sarsi]

On the contrary, I am hoping that Canon launched a EOS 3D instead of a entry level ff camera.

 

[SK]

I hope it's 5D Mark III minus Video. I'm sure there are many folks who want excellent still image quality but not using video function of the camera.

 

[sphax]

If I had to wager, a 5D3 minus the AF, frame rate and build quality. $1999 anyone?

The question would be why people should buy that instead of a second-hand 5D2.

I have a feeling that there is something missing from the story.

Because the second hand 5D2 is second hand.

If Canon can sell an entry level full frame camera, at a profit, why shouldn't they?

Sure about that second hand thing, weird to compare these.
And of course if they can sell it, they should, but don't you think it's way easier to just lower the price of the 5DmkII ?? That camera has been a killer for four years now, so I can honestly say that it would still be pretty damn good for some years as an "entry full-frame" !! What I wanna say is that if you need an "entry" full-frame camera and don't wanna go for the expensive mkIII, then it kinda means that you can deal with only 9 AF pts IMO ... Or maybe it's just about marketting and having the new fashion, anyway ...

Because the entire camera is currently 3.5 years old.

Tell me what other electronic device you would buy "new" today that was released 3.5 years ago?

My MacBookPro is 3 years old and works just perfectly although I quite push him (architect stuff ...) so guess how good it would work if I'd buy it new right now ? Although it's "already" three years old. So as I said : it's all about the new fashion, not about what people actually need. If professional photographers used the mkII for "3.5 years" I guess nowadays it's just about perfect for who's not professional. Therefore for who needs an "entry" full-frame ...

It isn't whether whatever is 3 years old works or how well it works but that it is 3 years old and that would Apple be able to sell it today against the other laptop manufacturers?

The question you should be examining is this:
Can you still buy your MacBook Pro from 3 years ago new from an Apple store today?

... and whether you can or not has nothing to do with fashion and everything to do with competitive performance and functionality. If you're professional and using your Macbook Pro for business then you should be replacing it at least as often as depreciation of it as an asset drops its value to $0.

True about the taxes and investments for a company, but pretty wrong in reality : I shall change it whenever I cannot put the last software I need in it, or whenever it will begin to slow down. So far I can use this one and the latest version of Archicad and Photoshop without any problem. So the money you think I should put in a new computer, I used it to buy a printer that I didn't have yet !
Anyway I guess you're right, I can't buy this model anymore.

 

[dooboo]

[/quote]
Well would that make sense ? I mean I think the 5DmkII is still selling pretty well, and specially a lot of people (including me) were waiting for the 5DmkIII annoucement to go FF, have been disappointed by the price of it, or not rich enough to afford it, and thus bought a 5DmkII that has been for 4 or 5 years described as the best camera ever, or something like this ... if they do some kind of update of the 5DmkII they'd disappoint most of the people who went straight to the mkII when finding out they couldn't afford the mkIII ! And I don't mention the fact that A LOT of photographers are really really fine with 9 AF points ...
[/quote]

Just because something is selling great does not mean the company should stop making a new product. For example, just because apple sell their iPad2 in millions now didn't stop them from making a new iPad.

I think as one of the poster said, price point of somwhere 2500-2700 is missing. That would basically put this so called new FF camera right between 7D and 5DMK3 from price point.

I was thinking the same thing maybe FF body with some of the 7D AF (19 points) and lower FPS (maybe around 4.5), Digic V, stick with 3" screen, single CF card slot, etc. and price it at around 2600 +/-100 USD. I think this will keep a lot of people happy.

Canon might throw a curveball just like when they announced 7D when everyone was expecting the 7D to be the 50D replacement...but bit later announced 60D. Who knows...maybe move the xD line to the FF and whatever 7D's replacement back into the xxD line.

I am sure Canon is watching how the sales of 5D3 is for next few months. Just because something is in development does not mean they are going to market it. If this is lower priced FF, you know it can't be better than 5D3 just 7-8 months later (if fall of 2012 is true).

In the mean time, I better get snap happy and create more work.

 

[Neeneko]

Because the entire camera is currently 3.5 years old.

Tell me what other electronic device you would buy "new" today that was released 3.5 years ago?

This gets into the split between consumer markets and professional or industrial markets.

For instance, I used to work for a company that made a type of game system. Our customers generally had a 3 year software upgrade cycle, and maybe a 5-8 year hardware upgrade. In general we produced new hardware models every 2-3 years but kept producing ones for much longer because customers wanted them.

Though if you want to talk consumer equipment, look at video game consoles. The Wii and PS3 are 6 years old, you can still buy them. The XBox360 is 7 years old, you can still buy them. The PS2 is 12 years old and you can buy them new.

Computers tend to be a bad example because the whole supply chain moves, it becomes more expensive to produce older models then newer ones, so there is no economic benefit to continuing to manufacturer something using older parts, which is why you tend to see these incremental 'oh, that chip is now more expensive, well, swap it out for the newer one and that is our release this year' ones.

You tend to get this 3 year cycle time when you are dealing with either supply chain issues, or consumer upgrade fashions. Once you get away form those two areas you start to see things that stay in manufacturing a lot longer because industrial and professional work tends to be much more stable... not to mention more grounded in 'does this spec meet need X?' as opposed to 'oh boy, more Y!', thus buyers are less willing to pay for upgrades that do not actually benefit them in some 'demonstrable to accounting' way.

 

[APBPhoto]

It hasn't even been 30 days since latest camera hit the streets, letting info about another FF camera leak out will help stop people considering switching brands but it also has to slow down sales of new product. Why wait 90 days to let the some of kinks get flushed out before starting the whole cycle of high hopes for the everything camera?

 

[Neeneko]

It hasn't even been 30 days since latest camera hit the streets, letting info about another FF camera leak out will help stop people considering switching brands but it also has to slow down sales of new product. Why wait 90 days to let the some of kinks get flushed out before starting the whole cycle of high hopes for the everything camera?

This is why I am always a bit surprised at how camera manufacturers stagger their releases the way they do. Having multiple overlapping models with erratic release schedules is just begging for the osborne effect and is kinda why so many other industries usually update their entire line at once.

 

[darryl]

Personally I just don't see where a new FF camera fits into canons lineup. People are talking about having it be like a 5Dm2 but with digic 5 and better AF.... No offense but thats the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Everyone and there mom said I love my 5Dm2 but the AF needs work, make a better AF and I'm buying it. Hmmm I wonder if there is a camera that is like the 5Dm2 but has better AF.....Come on people. You would seriously cannibalize the 5Dm3 market. And lets face it. Yes there are some people who just can't make that financial reach to the 5Dm3 but there are just as many people who really would like a $2,000 FF camera but don't want a 4 year old camera and dish out the extra dough for the 5Dm3.

I think people like to guess what the newest camera will be based on what they want personally and not on what would work well in the market. To all the people who say that a new $2,000 slr FF would make a killing. Your right it would. It would kill the 5Dm3. Unless you can tell me a way to offer a new $2,000 slr FF that differs enough in specs from the 5Dm3 that would justify a $1,500 difference between the cameras I'm calling shinanigans.

 

[maxxevv]

To all the people who say that a new $2,000 slr FF would make a killing. Your right it would. It would kill the 5Dm3. Unless you can tell me a way to offer a new $2,000 slr FF that differs enough in specs from the 5Dm3 that would justify a $1,500 difference between the cameras I'm calling shinanigans.

Just fit the FF sensor into a suitably sized body and carry all the features, build quality of the upcoming new Rebel. Keep the framerate at <=3fps. And video functions of 1 generation ago.

US$1500~$1999 is something which the market will most probably jump on en-masse like they did with the original Rebel all those years ago at US$999/- .

 

[ssrdd]

these guys trying very hard to make us forget how bad is 5Dmk3. So this NEW rumor...

 

[D_Rochat]

these guys trying very hard to make us forget how bad is 5Dmk3. So this NEW rumor...

Would you care to explain how the 5D mkIII is a "bad" camera please?

 

[itsnotmeyouknow]

Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...

I'd love Canon to do that. I have the Pentax 645D which is an "entry level" medium format high resolution camera that gives great definition and sharpness. Yes it was £6300 (equivalent UK price paid in Tokyo) but that's a good price for a great camera. Mine is waiting for repair because I used a sunsling which disconnected and dropped the camera. No big damage but a few buttons no longer work and the camera doesn't register the existence of the cable release

 

[Neeneko]

Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...

That would indeed be wonderful. Given the rather strong second hand market for digial backs in the $2000-4000 range, I think it can be demonstrated that a demand exists, and Canon is good at producing things at a cheap price point.

I could see an entry level medium format view camera really reinvigorating things, I could easily picture a whole new generation of photographers enjoying such a camera. It isn't going to happen, but I can dream.

Realistically, it will probably be some small company that figures out a way to sell an entry level medium format view camera. The existing players have no incentive to bring their prices down, and the big consumer companies have no real incentive to expand into markets the average consumer has never heard of..... esp if they are going to increasingly go the 5D route of merging things into a single form factor.

 

[itsnotmeyouknow]

Release an 'entry level' medium format, high resolution camera...

That would indeed be wonderful. Given the rather strong second hand market for digial backs in the $2000-4000 range, I think it can be demonstrated that a demand exists, and Canon is good at producing things at a cheap price point.

I could see an entry level medium format view camera really reinvigorating things, I could easily picture a whole new generation of photographers enjoying such a camera. It isn't going to happen, but I can dream.

Realistically, it will probably be some small company that figures out a way to sell an entry level medium format view camera. The existing players have no incentive to bring their prices down, and the big consumer companies have no real incentive to expand into markets the average consumer has never heard of..... esp if they are going to increasingly go the 5D route of merging things into a single form factor.

If Canon were to enter this arena, then I'd fully expect the price level to be around the same as the P 645D. Don't forget you'd also need a whole set of lenses as the image circle on EF lenses would be too small as the sensor on medium format starts at 44mm x 33mm in comparison to 36 x 24. Also at the moment Live view is not possible in medium format as all the sensors are CCD although I don't think a CMOS would be too far off if the likes of Hasselblad, Phase One and Pentax support it.

A medium format with 40+ mp Live View and even video at around $10k would fly off the shelves. I suspect the price would be twice that at least (and about 50% more on top in UK). There is an awful amount of money to be spent on r+d for CMOS as it is and that has to be paid for.

 

[Basilius]

Concerning the picture, which says "5DX"

Concerning the picture, which says "5DX":

The reason why the 1DX has the "X" in its name, is because the 1DX is the tenth camera in the 1d(s)/5d lineup. So it wouldn't make sense to call it 5DX. (Because it isn't the tenth camera, perhaps the 12th...)

kind reagards
Basilius

 

[unfocused]

Although I have found it's usually not a good idea to bet against CR Guy's sources, I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the "entry-level DSLR" concept.

But, looking at it from Canon's perspective (not from the many wish-list comments I've read) I can see it under these circumstances:

Manufacturing three full-frame sensors is inefficient and ties up fabrication resources that can be better used for other purposes. So, instead of continuing to make the 5DII sensor, maybe it makes sense to switch to the 5DIII sensor (Assuming production costs of the new sensor are not much different than those of the older sensor)

Canon does like to re-use its sensors, as evidenced by the APS-C line, so having one sensor in at least two full-frame bodies makes some sense.

Same with the DIGIC chip. Probably cheaper to just use the DIGIC V, instead of keeping an old chip alive.

Apparently, again judging by the APS-C lineup, the incremental cost of slightly different models is not significant, so perhaps Canon would like to stretch its full frame development costs over more bodies.

Canon doesn't seem to be concerned about cannibalization of sales from one body to another (Again, note the clustering of features with the APS-C lineup) so they may not be concerned that a less expensive full frame will cut into 5DIII territory (They don't seem to be concerned that the 5DIII will hurt the 1Dx.)

The question, I think, is autofocus. Do they recycle the original 5D autofocus one more time? Or, do they spend the money on a new autofocus that is improved from the 5DII but not up to 5DIII standards? I'm guessing the latter, just because they probably don't think they can get away with using the same old autofocus one more time. But, that does create new costs.

Then, it's just a matter of picking and choosing which features to leave off and which ones to keep. Probably a mixture based on the incremental costs/savings from each feature. One thing they definitely will have is video capability. Anyone who thinks we will ever see a stills-only camera again is crazy. The incremental costs of video are small, but the risk of lost sales by leaving it out are huge.

So, maybe a rebranded 5DII with a 5DIII sensor and processor, possibly with a different autofocus or possibly with the same 5DII autofocus.

Price: I would say that without a new autofocus they might bring it in for $2,200. With a new autofocus, maybe closer to $2,500. I think an under $2,000 full framer is very, very unlikely.

Will it replace the 7D? Not in a million years. This obsession that full-frame fanboys have with APS-C is just ridiculous. APS-C fills a much-needed niche that has only gotten more significant with the killing off of the APS-H sensor.

Perhaps in five years the technology will have advanced sufficiently to offer an all-in-one DSLR that can shoot both formats, but it isn't there yet.

There will definitely be a 7DII and there may even be a 7DX (Enthusiast version with add on grip/Professional sports and wildlife version with one-piece integrated body and grip).

 

[bvukich]

Re: Concerning the picture, which says "5DX"

Concerning the picture, which says "5DX":

The reason why the 1DX has the "X" in its name, is because the 1DX is the tenth camera in the 1d(s)/5d lineup. So it wouldn't make sense to call it 5DX. (Because it isn't the tenth camera, perhaps the 12th...)

kind reagards
Basilius

The G1X wasn't the tenth G-series camera.

 

[JR]

If a new FF is called 5DX, I surely dont think it would be an entry level. I would see the X more for a high MP new DSLR that would complement the current lineup - ok ok guys this is wishful thinking!

 

[dooboo]

If a new FF is called 5DX, I surely dont think it would be an entry level. I would see the X more for a high MP new DSLR that would complement the current lineup - ok ok guys this is wishful thinking!

How about 5DIII...remove the Mark...leaving the "Mark" for higher end model. LOL

How about little bit of MKT strategy from the Dark Side...5D Mark IIIe or s or c or whatever...LOL