More Than One Active Full Frame Mirrorless Project at Canon? [CR1]

[Larsskv]

The most interesting question is; why shouldn’t Canon release mirrorless cameras in both EF-mount, in addition to a mount with shorter flange distance?

It is clear that many in here don’t want to sacrifice ergonomics and their excisting EF lens line up, and therefore wish for a mirrorless using the EF-mount. Releasing such a camera should not be very resourceful or risky.

On the other hand, I and many others hope for a Canon FF mirrorless that can be smaller and lighter. Personally I would like a small FF camera with L-quality f2 primes: 24mm, 35mm, 50mm and 85mm (+ adapter for EF lenses) as my second camera system - while DSLRs with EF zooms and f1.4 lenses would be my primary system. If Canon chose to do this, they could build a FF system that is small and light, as an alternative to their EF system. As I see it Sony failed to do this, because they are neither small and light (lenses) or ergonomically sufficient to work with their large lenses.

I don’t believe that going both ways (EF mirrorless and small mirrorless) would be a particularly risky thing to do for Canon. Canon wouldn’t need to design that many lenses for the smaller system, since it would be able to use EF lenses with an adapter.

 

[Jack Douglas]

No time to read all this in one swoop so may have missed something, but here are a few of my thoughts.

If you want a really small high quality camera isn't a cell phone a good choice.

If you shoot a lot, you grip a lot and so a decent sized grip is a must regardless of straps.

I never forget my X1.4 and X2 adapters at home and I don't even have a good memory.

I won't buy another Canon camera that wont alow me to use my L glass unless it's for an alternate use like holiday/travel-light.

Jack

 

[BillB]

The most interesting question is; why shouldn’t Canon release mirrorless cameras in both EF-mount, in addition to a mount with shorter flange distance?

It is clear that many in here don’t want to sacrifice ergonomics and their excisting EF lens line up, and therefore wish for a mirrorless using the EF-mount. Releasing such a camera should not be very resourceful or risky.

On the other hand, I and many others hope for a Canon FF mirrorless that can be smaller and lighter. Personally I would like a small FF camera with L-quality f2 primes: 24mm, 35mm, 50mm and 85mm (+ adapter for EF lenses) as my second camera system - while DSLRs with EF zooms and f1.4 lenses would be my primary system. If Canon chose to do this, they could build a FF system that is small and light, as an alternative to their EF system. As I see it Sony failed to do this, because they are neither small and light (lenses) or ergonomically sufficient to work with their large lenses.

I don’t believe that going both ways (EF mirrorless and small mirrorless) would be a particularly risky thing to do for Canon. Canon wouldn’t need to design that many lenses for the smaller system, since it would be able to use EF lenses with an adapter.

I think the smaller mirrorless system wouldl need a couple of compact high IQ zooms to be really attractive to a broad range of buyers, especially if it requires an adapter to use EF lenses. That is the rabbit that has to be pulled out of the hat, or at least one of them. Otherwise the small mirrorless would be mostly a useful supplemtary body for someone who doesn't want to carry a large DSLR around all the time but doesn't want to work with an aps-c camera. Of course the zooms would run the price up.

 

[sanj]

At last the debate if mirrorless is the future is over.

Since when? Mirrorless is certainly part of the future. But is it the future? The jury is still out...

To me it seems like all major players would get into mirrorless only because they would consider that to have value over DSLR.

I doubt the major players are that stupid. At the very least, I expect that anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of numbers could look at the publicly available CIPA data and see that $213MM in dSLRs have shipped so far this year, compared to $157MM in MILCs.

Rather than 'value over dSLRs', saying mirrorless has 'value in addition to dSLRs' is certainly true.

Will MILCs overtake dSLRs? Maybe. Even if so, the question is when. Based on the trends over the past couple of years, it may not happen before both are rendered irrelevant and we're all shooting with the equivalent of Canon's Wondercamera (ultrahigh res sensor, fixed zoom lens) or some sort of holographic 4D brain-linked imager.

Future. Not this year sir.

 

[Loswr]

At last the debate if mirrorless is the future is over.

Since when? Mirrorless is certainly part of the future. But is it the future? The jury is still out...

To me it seems like all major players would get into mirrorless only because they would consider that to have value over DSLR.

I doubt the major players are that stupid. At the very least, I expect that anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of numbers could look at the publicly available CIPA data and see that $213MM in dSLRs have shipped so far this year, compared to $157MM in MILCs.

Rather than 'value over dSLRs', saying mirrorless has 'value in addition to dSLRs' is certainly true.

Will MILCs overtake dSLRs? Maybe. Even if so, the question is when. Based on the trends over the past couple of years, it may not happen before both are rendered irrelevant and we're all shooting with the equivalent of Canon's Wondercamera (ultrahigh res sensor, fixed zoom lens) or some sort of holographic 4D brain-linked imager.

Future. Not this year sir.

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

 

[AvTvM]

present ratio mirrorslappers to mirrorless is only so, because there is only Sony mirrorless FF, Canon onöly lacklustre APS-C lineup and Nikon nothing, except the CX fart.

Things will change very rapidly as soon as viable Canon and Nikon MILC systems appear. I predict 80% mirrorless sales by 2020.

 

[Jopa]

present ratio mirrorslappers to mirrorless is only so, because there is only Sony mirrorless FF, Canon onöly lacklustre APS-C lineup and Nikon nothing, except the CX fart.

Things will change very rapidly as soon as viable Canon and Nikon MILC systems appear. I predict 80% mirrorless sales by 2020.

If DPAF and OSPDAF can fully replace PDAF I don't see any reason why not... It's cheaper to produce a mirrorless than a DSLR.

 

[Mikehit]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

 

[Larsskv]

The most interesting question is; why shouldn’t Canon release mirrorless cameras in both EF-mount, in addition to a mount with shorter flange distance?

It is clear that many in here don’t want to sacrifice ergonomics and their excisting EF lens line up, and therefore wish for a mirrorless using the EF-mount. Releasing such a camera should not be very resourceful or risky.

On the other hand, I and many others hope for a Canon FF mirrorless that can be smaller and lighter. Personally I would like a small FF camera with L-quality f2 primes: 24mm, 35mm, 50mm and 85mm (+ adapter for EF lenses) as my second camera system - while DSLRs with EF zooms and f1.4 lenses would be my primary system. If Canon chose to do this, they could build a FF system that is small and light, as an alternative to their EF system. As I see it Sony failed to do this, because they are neither small and light (lenses) or ergonomically sufficient to work with their large lenses.

I don’t believe that going both ways (EF mirrorless and small mirrorless) would be a particularly risky thing to do for Canon. Canon wouldn’t need to design that many lenses for the smaller system, since it would be able to use EF lenses with an adapter.

I think the smaller mirrorless system wouldl need a couple of compact high IQ zooms to be really attractive to a broad range of buyers, especially if it requires an adapter to use EF lenses. That is the rabbit that has to be pulled out of the hat, or at least one of them. Otherwise the small mirrorless would be mostly a useful supplemtary body for someone who doesn't want to carry a large DSLR around all the time but doesn't want to work with an aps-c camera. Of course the zooms would run the price up.

You are probably right. Zooms will be necessary, but maybe Canon would make them slow, small and light, and by that protect their EF line up/alternative. Sounds like something Canon could do. I still do believe it can make sense from an economic perspective, to operate with two different FF lens mounts - big and ergonomically perfect, and small and light.

 

[Dylan777]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

2hrs walking in the rain around HongKong, street photography, my a7r II + FE 55mm didn't have any issues. 6hrs plus shooting with same combo in the mountain with snow storm, again no issues.

Don't give such a comment if you haven't touch the product.

 

[Jopa]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

I don't think weather sealing has anything to do with this. If the Earth will be absorbed by the Sun - overheating is a much more significant problem, so don't bring the A9.

 

[Loswr]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

2hrs walking in the rain around HongKong, street photography, my a7r II + FE 55mm didn't have any issues. 6hrs plus shooting with same combo in the mountain with snow storm, again no issues.

Don't give such a comment if you haven't touch the product.

If you let me know your PayPal account, I'll send you $1 in the sincere hope that you use it to buy a modicum of a sense of humor.

 

[ahsanford]

If the last DLSR is made 20 years from now, then I really don't care if mirrorless is the future.

...you might care if the only SLR in production at that time is a $6K+ 1-series gripped monstrosity, which I presume will be the case.

As others have said, it's going to be a while, but I believe mirrorless will eventually have enough mindshare / trust / money-saving opportunity for companies that -- from the bottom of the SLR portfolio to the top, it will replace the SLR line at that level. Surely, however, that's a long way off.

But when it happens, I believe the 1-series folks will be the last to lose their mirrors for a host of reasons. So, yes, it might take 20+ years before (major manufacturer) SLRs leave the market, but the product level you prefer (XXD, 7D, 6D, etc.) will likely be RIP before that time.

Unless you're Neuro. 1-series being the last mirror standing suits him just fine.

- A

 

[ahsanford]

present ratio mirrorslappers to mirrorless is only so, because there is only Sony mirrorless FF, Canon onöly lacklustre APS-C lineup and Nikon nothing, except the CX fart.

Things will change very rapidly as soon as viable Canon and Nikon MILC systems appear. I predict 80% mirrorless sales by 2020.

If you mean mirrorless will be 80% of sales of all ILC camera bodies, I'll need to check my CIPA numbers, but I believe a PSA about the dangers of huffing paint might be in order.

If you mean mirrorless will be 80% of sales of any type of camera, surely we're already there with cell phones included, right?

- A

 

[ahsanford]

present ratio mirrorslappers to mirrorless is only so, because there is only Sony mirrorless FF, Canon onöly lacklustre APS-C lineup and Nikon nothing, except the CX fart.

Things will change very rapidly as soon as viable Canon and Nikon MILC systems appear. I predict 80% mirrorless sales by 2020.

If DPAF and OSPDAF can fully replace PDAF I don't see any reason why not... It's cheaper to produce a mirrorless than a DSLR.

Sure, but it won't happen overnight. There's much more to it than they'll cut over to mirrorless because it's more profitable to the manufacturer.

For 80% ILC sales to be mirrorless in 2020 to happen:

1) CaNikon would have to incentivize SLR folks to pitch their mirrors by passing the mirror box removal cost savings over to the customer. Fat chance of that. Mirrorless is the flavor of the month and initial models from (especially) Canon will be marked up relative to a same-spec'd SLR. This will inhibit high migration rates to mirrorless at first.

2) CaNikon would have to aggressively button up their SLR production and stop offering new SLRs in a number of price points. At this stage of the unproven / unequivalent performance of mirrorless in a number of areas (battery, responsiveness, AF speed, etc.), shutting down solidly selling SLR lines is tantamount to cutting off one of the legs they are running on because this shiny new robotic leg might seamlessly drop in and do better. Never. gonna. happen. Mirrorless and SLR will be sold side by side and that will water down mirrorless' opportunity to gobble up the share of sales.

3) A ton more people in the market at large need to be drinking AvTvM's Kool-Aid on priorities for a camera. Like if I guessed FF users were (say) 50-50 split on full mount vs. 'please make it small thin' with mirrorless, if it actually turned out that it was 10-90 and mirrorless in the market at large (i.e. not this forum) was indeed all about being small, then maybe we'd see an exodus to mirrorless despite perfectly good SLRs still being made.

- A

 

[Jopa]

present ratio mirrorslappers to mirrorless is only so, because there is only Sony mirrorless FF, Canon onöly lacklustre APS-C lineup and Nikon nothing, except the CX fart.

Things will change very rapidly as soon as viable Canon and Nikon MILC systems appear. I predict 80% mirrorless sales by 2020.

If DPAF and OSPDAF can fully replace PDAF I don't see any reason why not... It's cheaper to produce a mirrorless than a DSLR.

Sure, but it won't happen overnight. There's much more to it than they'll cut over to mirrorless because it's more profitable to the manufacturer.

For 80% ILC sales to be mirrorless in 2020 to happen:

1) CaNikon would have to incentivize SLR folks to pitch their mirrors by passing the mirror box removal cost savings over to the customer. Fat chance of that. Mirrorless is the flavor of the month and initial models from (especially) Canon will be marked up relative to a same-spec'd SLR. This will inhibit high migration rates to mirrorless at first.

2) CaNikon would have to aggressively button up their SLR production and stop offering new SLRs in a number of price points. At this stage of the unproven / unequivalent performance of mirrorless in a number of areas (battery, responsiveness, AF speed, etc.), shutting down solidly selling SLR lines is tantamount to cutting off one of the legs they are running on because this shiny new robotic leg might seamlessly drop in and do better. Never. gonna. happen. Mirrorless and SLR will be sold side by side and that will water down mirrorless' opportunity to gobble up the share of sales.

3) A ton more people in the market at large need to be drinking AvTvM's Kool-Aid on priorities for a camera. Like if I guessed FF users were (say) 50-50 split on full mount vs. 'please make it small thin' with mirrorless, if it actually turned out that it was 10-90 and mirrorless in the market at large (i.e. not this forum) was indeed all about being small, then maybe we'd see an exodus to mirrorless despite perfectly good SLRs still being made.

- A

All points make sense. To the majority of people caring about photography it's probably irrelevant if their camera has a mirror or not. It's just a tool, right? I personally like mirrorless only because it would allow me forget about calibrating my lenses. I don't want to sacrifice AF speed and battery life though (because it will be an EVF for sure). If they add some kind of quick automated calibration in-camera - probably I won't need mirrorless.
I'm aware some folks simply hate EVF, even if it had zero delay. I guess let's just wait and see - the technology is evolving very rapidly these days. As long as Canon keeps the EF mount for their new bodies - I'm pretty sure I'll be happy no matter if the next camera will be mirrorless or not.

 

[ahsanford]

Jopa, you're correct -- there are different concerns at different levels of SLRs, and yeah, some XXXXD and Rebel folks might not even notice the mirror being pulled.

Higher up the chain, folks shooting FF need to be convinced mirrorless is better, or that what you get for pitching the mirror is worth what you give up to get it. In FF, you need a value proposition that will (at the minimum) get weighed against the other Canon options near it in the pecking order.

But I just don't see Canon offering the next line of (super high unit sale) Rebels cold turkey sans mirror. Not a chance. They'll offer something alongside that Rebel without a mirror (more likeness in design/handling than an M5), and then have sold side by side 1-2 generations later, we will have seen the last Rebel with a mirror, and by then, few folks will pitch a fit because the mirrorless equivalent is a known entity that gets the job done.

- A

 

[snoke]

Canon in same position like now: dont need Canon camera for Canon lens.

Canon sell lens and not camera. Canon lose camera sale.

My bet Canon 1st mirrorless FF like 1DX. 20+FPS. No AF calibration. Buyer: sports photographer. Maybe wildlife. And wedding photographer. Silent camera in church = prayers answered. Not for photojournalist or birders. Birders will hate because many birders are hobby so they picky. Not like pro. Maybe this difference. Pro build bridge, hobby build wall.

not such a big problem if Canon kept EF mount on FF mirrorless body. what other system lenses can be adopted to EF mount? Exactly..

..When all lens for mirrorless then adapter die. Lockin return.
Mirrorless unchain camera and lens from manufacturer.
Big problem for company.

 

[Proscribo]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

2hrs walking in the rain around HongKong, street photography, my a7r II + FE 55mm didn't have any issues. 6hrs plus shooting with same combo in the mountain with snow storm, again no issues.

Don't give such a comment if you haven't touch the product.

So you claim that A7R II and FE 55mm can survive being swallowed by the sun?! I'm gonna build myself a doomsday shelter out of those!

 

[Talys]

Ahhhh, yes…the future. In the future, the sun will become a red giant and destroy the earth. You have been warned.

But only Sony will have the dynamic range to capture it. But only if they improve the weather sealing to survive the event...

2hrs walking in the rain around HongKong, street photography, my a7r II + FE 55mm didn't have any issues. 6hrs plus shooting with same combo in the mountain with snow storm, again no issues.

Don't give such a comment if you haven't touch the product.

So you claim that A7R II and FE 55mm can survive being swallowed by the sun?! I'm gonna build myself a doomsday shelter out of those!

But there won't be anything to photograph afterwards