Nikon: If we go mirrorless, it must be full-frame

[ahsanford]

Straight from the horse's mouth:
https://petapixel.com/2017/09/16/nikons-next-mirrorless-camera-will-full-frame/

A few thoughts:

[list type=decimal]
[*]If we go mirrorless? :


[*]The notion that they'd only choose FF or APS-C is somewhat laughable. As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless. They 100% will offer APS-C and FF mirrorless systems -- it's just a question of when.


[*]“Nikon customer base is very broad, from novice to enthusiasts to prosumer to professional, that’s Nikon’s advantage,” Goto says. “Olympus, Sony, and Fujifilm can only cover a small part of that. So far there is no professional using their products.” --> I can see the slogan now: Nikon, better than Olympus/Sony/Fuji.
[/list]

- A

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Nikon was badly bitten by their 1" mirrorless, and even made public comments about Canon making a mistake by going to APS-C for their M5.

They had some sound reasons at the time, its much easier to have fast AF with a small sensor, small form factor, smaller lenses, and all.

Last Fall, Thom Hogan posted that Nikon needed to do a FF mirrorless in the next year, but they still have not managed. Look for one next year if they can figure out autofocus.

 

[YuengLinger]

Nothing from PetaPixel is from "the horse's mouth." Other end, maybe.

 

[ahsanford]

Nothing from PetaPixel is from "the horse's mouth." Other end, maybe.

I was referring to the Nikon executive there.

- A

 

[Sporgon]

As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless.

Just about - so with the exception of Nikon, Canon and Pentax dslrs? Mirrorless - and by that I mean dslr replacement mirrorless, not p&s, rose because those other manufacturers could not meet the other three head on in reflex designs.

Until mirrorless can offer the same power consumption as a dslr and real time viewing the future isn't all mirrorless IMO.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

If Nikon is going to have a mirrorless FF camera by 2019, the design should be ready, and a production decision should already have been made. It is at least a 2 year lead time to get parts on order so tooling can be started. Its a really big project to do a FF mirrorless, and even bigger if a new lens mount is selected.

 

[jd7]

As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless.

...

Until mirrorless can offer the same power consumption as a dslr and real time viewing the future isn't all mirrorless IMO.

+1

 

[ahsanford]

As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless.

Just about - so with the exception of Nikon, Canon and Pentax dslrs? Mirrorless - and by that I mean dslr replacement mirrorless, not p&s, rose because those other manufacturers could not meet the other three head on in reflex designs.

Until mirrorless can offer the same power consumption as a dslr and real time viewing the future isn't all mirrorless IMO.

I didn't say it would be tomorrow, but in (say) 10-15 years time, I could see new SLRs only being made for the most demanding professional folks (1-series, perhaps 5-series).

For general Rebel-class consumer, I think it's much more about responsiveness of SLRs vs. mirrorless than it has anything to do about battery life. Yes, the battery life is a major consideration for enthusiasts and professionals, but I've never seen a soccer mom / hockey dad geek out about his SLR's battery life. She/he is excited about SLR responsiveness and how moments / events / etc. are not missed like they were on their cell phones or old P&S cameras. And on that front -- responsiveness -- mirrorless is much closer to SLRs than it is with battery life.

Also, there's the argument that losing the mirror unlocks high fps opportunities for low/mid-range rigs, which some might find attractive.

So I expect Rebels to swap over to mirrorless first, and then it will climb up the line. It'll be a while, but I'm pretty confident the changeover will eventually take place.

- A

 

[BillB]

As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless.

Just about - so with the exception of Nikon, Canon and Pentax dslrs? Mirrorless - and by that I mean dslr replacement mirrorless, not p&s, rose because those other manufacturers could not meet the other three head on in reflex designs.

Until mirrorless can offer the same power consumption as a dslr and real time viewing the future isn't all mirrorless IMO.

I didn't say it would be tomorrow, but in (say) 10-15 years time, I could see new SLRs only being made for the most demanding professional folks (1-series, perhaps 5-series).

For general Rebel-class consumer, I think it's much more about responsiveness of SLRs vs. mirrorless than it has anything to do about battery life. Yes, the battery life is a major consideration for enthusiasts and professionals, but I've never seen a soccer mom / hockey dad geek out about his SLR's battery life. She/he is excited about SLR responsiveness and how moments / events / etc. are not missed like they were on their cell phones or old P&S cameras. And on that front -- responsiveness -- mirrorless is much closer to SLRs than it is with battery life.

Also, there's the argument that losing the mirror unlocks high fps opportunities for low/mid-range rigs, which some might find attractive.

So I expect Rebels to swap over to mirrorless first, and then it will climb up the line. It'll be a while, but I'm pretty confident the changeover will eventually take place.

- A

One factor in the growth of mirrorless may be video, especially for less expensive models. You can actually use an EVF while doing video.

 

[Jopa]

Straight from the horse's mouth:
https://petapixel.com/2017/09/16/nikons-next-mirrorless-camera-will-full-frame/

A few thoughts:

[list type=decimal]
[*]If we go mirrorless? :


[*]The notion that they'd only choose FF or APS-C is somewhat laughable. As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless. They 100% will offer APS-C and FF mirrorless systems -- it's just a question of when.


[*]“Nikon customer base is very broad, from novice to enthusiasts to prosumer to professional, that’s Nikon’s advantage,” Goto says. “Olympus, Sony, and Fujifilm can only cover a small part of that. So far there is no professional using their products.” --> I can see the slogan now: Nikon, better than Olympus/Sony/Fuji.
[/list]

- A

That's actually good news for the folks waiting a FF mirrorless from Canon. Canon can be ignoring Fujisony but I doubt they will be ignoring the #1 competitor.

Nikon is better than Olympus/Sony/Fuji. If I had no Canon that's what I would be shooting now.

 

[Tugela]

Straight from the horse's mouth:
https://petapixel.com/2017/09/16/nikons-next-mirrorless-camera-will-full-frame/

A few thoughts:

[list type=decimal]
[*]If we go mirrorless? :


[*]The notion that they'd only choose FF or APS-C is somewhat laughable. As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless. They 100% will offer APS-C and FF mirrorless systems -- it's just a question of when.


[*]“Nikon customer base is very broad, from novice to enthusiasts to prosumer to professional, that’s Nikon’s advantage,” Goto says. “Olympus, Sony, and Fujifilm can only cover a small part of that. So far there is no professional using their products.” --> I can see the slogan now: Nikon, better than Olympus/Sony/Fuji.
[/list]

- A

Wow...that is a pretty broad statement......how can he be sure that NO professionals are using Sony cameras?

Or is he just thinking that anyone who does is automatically not a professional, lol. I guess that is one way to claim that you serve the professional market....just define anyone who does not use your products as not a professional, then you are always right!

Perhaps Sony could do the same thing, and say that anyone who uses a Canikon is a professional, and that consequently Sony have a lock on the prosumer market, a market Canon and Nikon are completely absent from as a result, lol.

This is why Nikon and Canon need new management. They need to get rid of the delusional idiots currently running those companies.

 

[Tugela]

If Nikon is going to have a mirrorless FF camera by 2019, the design should be ready, and a production decision should already have been made. It is at least a 2 year lead time to get parts on order so tooling can be started. Its a really big project to do a FF mirrorless, and even bigger if a new lens mount is selected.

And a further two years to get production run capacity up enough actually produce enough cameras to sell, if Nikon's performance with some of their recent products (such as the P900, D850 and those vaporware 1" P&S cameras) are any indication.

 

[Woody]

From here:

"The interview did not say what many suggests it says. First off, you need a more accurate translation, not the google-ish one I linked to above. Second, you need to pay close attention to the details.

Goto-san was a key executive at Nikon, and highly influenced things in the D3 and D4 generations of products, including the design of the Df. But I believe he’s currently only a special advisor to the Imaging Business, not Director of Development as dpreview's headline reported. Thus, even if we get the translation and nuance right in his words, I’m not at all sure that you can say they represent Nikon’s thinking...

..Elsewhere I elaborated a bit on that and hinted that I believe DX mirrorless might be first from Nikon before FX, partly due to lenses. I’m not going to change my mind on that, either...

So what did we really learn from the interview?

• Goto-san has the opinion that Nikon should bring to market a full-frame mirrorless camera. He seems to believe that full frame “is a trend.”
• Goto-san took a dismissive view of Fujifilm's, Olympus', and Sony’s professional adoption.
• ...

... in 2016/17 the camera maker with half the ILC market (Canon) introduced 8 APS-C models and 3 full frame models while increasing their market share. That doesn’t seem like a trend to full frame to me."

 

[unfocused]

From here:

"The interview did not say what many suggests it says. First off, you need a more accurate translation, not the google-ish...

Thom Hogan is almost certainly the most insightful writer today when it come to the camera Industry. Thanks for linking to this. The only thing I would add is that anyone who has ever had a conversion in English with more than one person ought to be skeptical when you see an interview of a Japanese executive by a Chinese website that has been translated into English. It is silly to try to parse nuanced meanings out of the text.

It would be nice if this puts an end to this speculative and unfounded thread. Somehow I doubt such sanity will prevail.

 

[Ozarker]

As time marches onward, just about every camera segment will become mirrorless.

Just about - so with the exception of Nikon, Canon and Pentax dslrs? Mirrorless - and by that I mean dslr replacement mirrorless, not p&s, rose because those other manufacturers could not meet the other three head on in reflex designs.

Until mirrorless can offer the same power consumption as a dslr and real time viewing the future isn't all mirrorless IMO.

I didn't say it would be tomorrow, but in (say) 10-15 years time, I could see new SLRs only being made for the most demanding professional folks (1-series, perhaps 5-series).

For general Rebel-class consumer, I think it's much more about responsiveness of SLRs vs. mirrorless than it has anything to do about battery life. Yes, the battery life is a major consideration for enthusiasts and professionals, but I've never seen a soccer mom / hockey dad geek out about his SLR's battery life. She/he is excited about SLR responsiveness and how moments / events / etc. are not missed like they were on their cell phones or old P&S cameras. And on that front -- responsiveness -- mirrorless is much closer to SLRs than it is with battery life.

Also, there's the argument that losing the mirror unlocks high fps opportunities for low/mid-range rigs, which some might find attractive.

So I expect Rebels to swap over to mirrorless first, and then it will climb up the line. It'll be a while, but I'm pretty confident the changeover will eventually take place.

- A

And they'll all come standard with 50mm "L" lenses, no matter the brand.