There’s zero evidence Canon is in any sort of trouble. They currently dominate the ILC market, Sony is second, Nikon is well back in third.
Well, sales statistics are about sales which have already been made. True, Canon is doing well and according to their "read of the statistic" they are No. 1 although Sony claims they are No. 1. So, number they are not in trouble (yet)
But anybody, who is not blindly brand loyal boarding on stupidity and who just a tini tiny bit familiar with business psychology and the camera industry, will see that Nikons pricing will put a lot of pressure on canon. And with a price point difference which is so big that it will allow people top buy into Nikon Z-mount with a flagship camera and two lenses (one at least top-tier caliber; don't know about the 800mm yet) AND save money compared to Canons offering, it would be pretty naiv to think that it won't pressure Canon. Canon has to be extremely cautions how they are going about this or they'll lose customers. So far, their RF pricing has been to put a 40% (and more) markup on everything...
How many people is ‘so many’? Also, ‘thinking about getting’ something is meaningless. Car forums are full of people ‘thinking about getting’ Ferraris and Porsches. Mostly, they dream and specurbate and if they buy anything, it’s a Toyota or a Ford.
Well, I honestly didn't count. Camera forums not only visited by dreamers who state "XY is my dream lense", also by serious photographers. There are a few German website were actually show their business in their profile such as wedding photographers and such. And they do think about their equipment/ future acquisitions and such.
And hey, there actually are a lot of "dreamers" who buy a Porsche one day. Ever heard of mid-life crises purchases or people pursuing a life-long dream to get product XYZ...
Do you think a lot of sports photographers, like those shooting soccer games, are using 800mm lenses?
Nope, I don't think that. My point was meant to be different and I didn't explain it correctly. My mistake.
What I meant was: Even pro soccer photographers think about budget constraints ALL the time and don't spent extra if they find a cheaper, almost equivalent option. I only chose soccer to illustrate this as an example because it is the sport with the most money involved. Due to worldwide press articles and photos been published everyday and everywhere, you can earn a lot more money than for example shooting pics at a Handball Game in Germany.
Regardless, thanks for supporting my point, even though I know that wasn’t your intent. Budgets are tight and the professional photography market is suffering. That means current pro photographers, who already have gear they’re using, are much less likely to buy any expensive new lenses, whether they cost $6K or $16K.
This is were we disagree:
If you say that pro photographers are less likely to "buy any expensive" new lense, it actually does mean as well: And if they do, it'll be the $6K lense...
And as you stated: the market (and income) is suffering, photographers are holding on to their longer as usual. These facts will drive photographer in getting the 6K Nikon lense instead of Canons offering. In fact, it will means: every company will sell fewer lenses, but Canon sales will be hurt the most given the extreme price difference...