Photography's Top Manufacturers for 2020

[Sabaki]

Bloggers, reviewers, forum members have all in the last year or so moved away from Canon vs Nikon exclusive debates to now include Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, Sigma and Fujitsu as viable alternatives.

I have experienced this sway of sentiment before. In gaming, we had Sega vs Nintendo. Today it's Sony vs Microsoft. We had Nokia in the mobile phone segment. Not only usurped from their throne but taken over by a competitor. Sony dominated the CRT television market. Since the advent of flat panel screens and Samsung's total domination of the segment, whispers from Japan recently indicated that Sony may actually walk away from making screens altogether.

These companies stood head and shoulders above their rivals and their brands were household names, synonymous with the products they plied.

Quickly, very quickly it changed. Why? Well, one of two things in my opinion. Sega and Nintendo wanted to cater for a hardcore market, who was dwarfed by the sheer volume of the average consumer who wanted a console. Nokia wore blinkers and were oblivious to the huge strides made by newcomers to the market. They also decided to give their users what they felt the users wanted.

The rest is history.

Let's turn to Canon and Nikon. Combined, owning well over 90% of the photography market worldwide. Two years back, a newbie wanted advise on which camera or photography system to buy, there was uniform advise; go with either Canon or Nikon.

Today, that is no longer the case.

I watched a fair number of video previews on the 7Dii, read some more reviews as well as every 7Dii post here at Canon Rumors. There are grumblings regarding the sensor, the video capability and value-for-money proposition of the 7Dii vs the competition.
And no, the competition named is no longer by default Nikon as Samsung, Sony, Panasonic are all mentioned frequently. And judging purely on the massive strides they've taken recently, they have certainly earned a place in these conversations.

A company like Sony has Zeiss in their stable. If Zeiss was to release 4 compelling lenses per year until 2014 and Sony as a company enhances their overall system with flash units etc, could they be sitting at #1 photography brand in 2020?

There are other competitors too. If Sigma do start releasing their own bodies, bodies who speak the exact language their lenses do and thereby mitigate the AF issues associated with their wares on Canon and Nikon, what then?

This is not a topic about the 7Dii, this is about what could potentially happen in 2020. Funny enough, if there is one of either Canon or Nikon to slip out of the top 5, I somehow sense it will be Canon. Nikon's over all appeal just seems that bit more attractive.

You guys agree or disagree with anything I've said up there? Is it possible that the other brands could build up superior systems in 5 years?

Or is this a case of it's easier to go from 0-100mph than it is to go from 100-200mph.

Would love to hear some opinions on this.

 

[ajfotofilmagem]

It is possible for a new player (Sony) dominate the market for cameras in six years. But lenses, flash, and accessories require more time to become solid. The wealthy amateurs can change your camera every year, while the professionals choose thinking about the reliability of camera equipment over time.

However, Sigma and Zeiss could be a wildcard for Sony if she does cameras that satisfy the desires of photographers.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

It is possible for a new player (Sony) dominate the market for cameras in six years. But lenses, flash, and accessories require more time to become solid. The wealthy amateurs can change your camera every year, while the professionals choose thinking about the reliability of camera equipment over time.

However, Sigma and Zeiss could be a wildcard for Sony if she does cameras that satisfy the desires of photographers.

Sony merely put their name on Minolta, so they are not new to photography.

Samsung is a company to watch out for, they have the dollars, and when they put their mind to it, they can produce.

Still, I'd bet on a Chinese company emerging, or a offshoot of a existing one. Some of them are ruthless, and have no qualms about playing dirty tricks to steamroller the competition. One comes to mind, but Ill not name them.

 

[jhpeterson]

Still, I'd bet on a Chinese company emerging, or a offshoot of a existing one. Some of them are ruthless, and have no qualms about playing dirty tricks to steamroller the competition. One comes to mind, but Ill not name them.
[/quote]
+1
Not only dirty tricks to contend with, but also shoddy workmanship, and questionable, likely toxic materials.

 

[KAS]

It'll be a sad day for the industry when some cheap chinese company puts the quality companies out of business...again.

 

[KAS]

...although if you're speaking STRICTLY of manufacturing, and not ownership or design, then a chinese takeover may happen much sooner than 2020.

 

[Haydn1971]

Samsung is a company to watch out for, they have the dollars, and when they put their mind to it, they can produce.

Absolutely - Samsung has come from nowhere in the mobile phone market, to become one of the market leaders, Sony has a reputation for making huge money, then dropping the ball, look back at Walkman, Hi8, Betamax, minidisc etc, which is why given their sole backing of the full frame mirrorless market, makes me feel uncomfortable and why I'm pretty sure it will flop and the crop Mirrorless product will succeed.

HTC & Apple are others to watch, no product in the market but a great following for quality and big pockets to buy one of the established brands technology - Pentax, Leica, Sigma or Fuji perhaps ? The market will be very different in 2020, but one thing is for sure, Canon & Nikon will still be big players

 

[arcanej]

Absolutely - Samsung has come from nowhere in the mobile phone market, to become one of the market leaders, Sony has a reputation for making huge money, then dropping the ball, look back at Walkman, Hi8, Betamax, minidisc etc, which is why given their sole backing of the full frame mirrorless market, makes me feel uncomfortable and why I'm pretty sure it will flop and the crop Mirrorless product will succeed.

HTC & Apple are others to watch, no product in the market but a great following for quality and big pockets to buy one of the established brands technology - Pentax, Leica, Sigma or Fuji perhaps ? The market will be very different in 2020, but one thing is for sure, Canon & Nikon will still be big players

Leica might be the wildcard. In 2011, Blackstone acquired a 44% stake in Leica. Private equity typically has a 6 or so year investment horizon before they begin to wind down funds, so Blackstone may be looking to unload its stake in the next few years. This was pretty much confirmed from a recent interview with Leica's CEO.

Blackstone acquires stake in Leica:
http://www.blackstone.com/news-views/press-releases/details/leica-camera-gains-strategic-investor-in-blackstone
Leica CEO on Blackstone wanting to sell:
http://leicarumors.com/2014/09/14/interview-with-leicas-ceo-alfred-schopf.aspx/

 

[tayassu]

The heaviest competition for Canon is in the mirrorless market. I see three brands there that really look like they would survive and get better long-term: Samsung, Sony and especially Fuji. Olympus and Panasonic are still sticking with this 4/3 sensor that performs in low-light like a 7DI...
Samsung have really much money and obviously an interest in getting some more serious photographers buying their stuff, the latest announcements like NX1 (despite the 15fps 14bit fail), the 2.8 tele zoom and the 300/2.8 show that. I believe that they will be one of the big ones in the future market. Besides, they have a great partnership with Schneider-Kreuznach, which helps with their lenses...
For Sony, it is the same. The partnership with Zeiss is everything, look at the non-Zeiss 16-50... It is absolute crap! But with these Zeiss lenses, their very good sensors and the profits they make from selling their sensors to Nikon, PhaseOne, Mamiya, Pentax, Canon etc. will build the basis for a successful business. Their innovation in putting huge sensors in small cameras and cameras like the A7, the RX1, the RX100III and the A6000 show their potential. They will also be in the group of leaders, I reckon.
For the last, Fuji: they are a great company who really listen to their customers. Look at their lens lineup: high-quality zooms (10-24, 16-55, 50-140, 140-400) and a broad selection of primes (23, 35, 56/1.2 and the Zeiss Touit). The Fuji XT-1 is an absolute beast and, for me, the best mirrorless camera on the market. If they would fix that dumb not being able to shoot RAW under ISO 200 and over ISO 6400 thing and improve the tracking abilities in a possible XT-2, this is pretty much the perfect camera for me and, I believe, for many other serious amateurs.
I still do believe that mirrorless is the future and I fear that Canon and Nikon can't keep up (EOS M/Nikon 1 - nuff said...). Nikon's D810 approaches Medium Format in IQ and is better in every other respect, that is possible in a potential A7R II too... All the smaller cameras (Rebels, 70D etc.) have equivalents in the mirrorless market. And if tracking with mirrorless cameras improves, which will surely happen, cameras like the 7D line have no justification of existence. The 1D line could be a niche market for the hardcore pro sports guys, but who knows... Lens selection will get better with these brands and so on... I don't think what I said refers to 2020, maybe more 2025, and then the light field cameras will come...
But this is just my humble opinion and I respect every other thought.

 

[dickgrafixstop]

You're right - markets and players change. What remains true however is that money and commitment are more important than skill. Now, gazing into my cloudy crystal ball, I'll offer these predictions.
Sony will be like a comet - blazing across the photographic sky and burning out. The corporation is in financial
limbo - old product lines like television are struggling, new product lines like cameras and computers are at best
"moderate" successes. It wouldn't surprise me to see Sony sell their camera division to concentrate on other
products. Potential buyers - a Chinese supplier, a money manager who knows little of photography (who bought Hasselblad?), or a darkhorse in Zeiss (or more likely Cosina) as a supplier of branded bodies or even Nikon.

Canon will roll along and continue to coast on an ever diminishing lead in the marketplace. It will milk DSLR
technology until the profits shrink and their position contracts. Reluctantly introducing new technology and
protecting their "advantage" until some newcomer forces them to make radical change. Think IBM of the
nineties and like IBM, Canon will be forced into radical change, but not until they lose market leadership.

Mamiya and Hasselblad will be merged into oblivion - think Pentax/Ricoh or disappear completely as overpriced
alternatives to large megapixel full frame offerings (aps-c vrs full frame forum discussions will now be full frame vs. medium format). Pentax, Casio, and a host of others will be replaced by cell phone manufacturers in the
"casual" photo market and Leica will limp along until their aging fanboys all die (think Cadillac!).

That leaves who's left - Olympus will be acquired by Panasonic and continue the M4/3 product line competing against cell phone makers - possibly buying Red One and making it in the quality video market. The two
future powerhouse companies - Fuji and Samsung - will each experience fantastic growth, but for different
reasons. Fuji has the backing and the talent to do it right, and Samsung has the financial backing to do it wrong. Both have the money, the engineering design skills, the manufacturing capacity and supposedly the
desire to succeed in the photo marketplace, but neither currently has the marketing or distribution chain to
support success. Ricoh has the money and the talent to add to this list, but their program with Pentax casts a dark shadow on their corporate will to play. But, as Fuji and Samsung get their acts together and their product line expanded - watch out Canon.

 

[AcutancePhotography]

I would not automatically count Pentax out of the equation.