Smartphones Already Won -- Laforet

[distant.star]

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"This is bold prediction, but it’s clear to me that over the next several years, the standalone still camera will disappear from the hands of everyone – with the exception of a few high end professionals."

http://blog.vincentlaforet.com/2015/02/24/prediction-the-age-of-the-standalone-still-camera-is-coming-to-and-end-for-all-but-pros/

 

[mackguyver]

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"This is bold prediction, but it’s clear to me that over the next several years, the standalone still camera will disappear from the hands of everyone – with the exception of a few high end professionals."

http://blog.vincentlaforet.com/2015/02/24/prediction-the-age-of-the-standalone-still-camera-is-coming-to-and-end-for-all-but-pros/

I agree with him in some ways, but the story about the Leica and Sony becoming stands for the phones is kind of funny. It just reinforces, to me, that the smartphone has definitely killed the general purpose/street photography camera. It makes you wonder if mirrorless (as it exists today as m4/3) will ultimately fail due to phones. Canon's play to retain and expand the higher end market makes a lot of sense in this context.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I'll agree with his premise

"The key is that the software on those smartphones, and the social media platforms and instant connection to the web – ARE BETTER and cannot be overcome by camera companies that fail to integrate software within their camera bodies going forward."

The vast majority of camera users are using social web sites for their photos, and a phone which uses the vast wireless networks in place around the world has a huge advantage.

Cameras that use Wi-Fi are clunky, and can only connect with a lot of effort when and where a appropriate Wi-Fi is located. The near field connectivity that allows you to slowly transfer images to your smart phone is not a solution. I don't know if there is a solution that will save the camera from obsolescence. Having a phone connection in a camera might help, but sending data over wireless is expensive, so you will have to pay for a additional device on your phone bill as well as $200 or more for the electronics. The price then becomes a factor.

Professional users could absorb the cost, so its something that needs to be offered now on high end cameras. I expect Samsung to be the one to do this.

 

[NWPhil]

it's a bit like the idea of having the smartphone GPS app replacing a true GPS for hiking (yes, paper maps still better, but not the point here)
the phone works well in some situations and actually if you have net connection, can do better.

I think the compact camera it's tosted, unless it'a specialzed type and even those....
the mirrorless will remain a good option because all the cheaper legacy glass available and portability
the phone will take(already took and kwill keep on taking) away a lot of P&S users, but will bring a few into a a more advanced and rich featured cameras, as users get frustrated with it's(phone) limitations and/or want to explore further their creativity and photo-taking control.
Actually these days, having a dslr and a smart phone it's a good combo as the phone can work as an extended tool

 

[mkabi]

I too will agree with most of what Laforet said.

At the same time, as important as many people feel about social media and connectivity right now. I don't think its as important for professionals, for a number of reasons.
Reasons like:
-IQ (e.g. you can't make an album/magazine with cellphone pictures, you can't make a billboard and/or large print with cellphone pictures).
-Sustainability (again, you can't make an album with cellphone pictures, so if you are taking pictures to put on facebook, it will last about a week, before its pushed down with pictures of your honeymoon, birthdays, etc.).

BUT, this may change with advances of technology, for example bigger sensors in phones (which is already happening), interchangeable lenses on phones (somewhat happening but with little success).

Cell phones are winning. Let me correct that... smart phones are winning. Because, no matter what... you want to carry around a phone for emergency purposes (at the very least). Whether it be a P&S, Mirrorless or DSLR... no matter the weight of it, its just extra baggage. And, most people want to live in the moment... not carry around a clunky camera that they need to adjust every time they need to take a picture.

 

[mrzero]

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"This is bold prediction, but it’s clear to me that over the next several years, the standalone still camera will disappear from the hands of everyone – with the exception of a few high end professionals."

I disagree. Cameras (still and video) have always been sought out by hobbyists, and they always will be. Look at the impossible project, reviving interest in relatively low-quality instant film cameras. And the number of people hauling DSLRs to their kids' events. There will always be people who want to step away from the "entry-level," whether it is a smartphone camera or a point-n-shoot film/digital. Smart cameramakers will simply step-up their integration with smartphones. A digital camera is just a computer attached to a lens. I think that enough people are yelling about the demise of the camera and the rise of the smartphone that Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Fuji are going to be willing to listen and consider how to do that. It just won't happen as quickly or efficiently as we'd like. The end result will be smarter cameras, and, hopefully, better lenses (since a cameraphone can't compete on optics).

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

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"This is bold prediction, but it’s clear to me that over the next several years, the standalone still camera will disappear from the hands of everyone – with the exception of a few high end professionals."

I disagree. Cameras (still and video) have always been sought out by hobbyists, and they always will be. Look at the impossible project, reviving interest in relatively low-quality instant film cameras. And the number of people hauling DSLRs to their kids' events. There will always be people who want to step away from the "entry-level," whether it is a smartphone camera or a point-n-shoot film/digital. Smart cameramakers will simply step-up their integration with smartphones. A digital camera is just a computer attached to a lens. I think that enough people are yelling about the demise of the camera and the rise of the smartphone that Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Fuji are going to be willing to listen and consider how to do that. It just won't happen as quickly or efficiently as we'd like. The end result will be smarter cameras, and, hopefully, better lenses (since a cameraphone can't compete on optics).

There are still people who buy tube type Audio equipment and reel to reel records as well as vinyl disk players. I have a whole room full of them.

However, the number of buyers is so small that's its not a mass production business, and its expensive. These are simple devices that almost anyone can manufacture, Cameras are not, so those wanting them will have a limited selection of high end cameras, or will be buying on the used market.

Capabilities and innovation in the phone market is going to bring a lot of improvements. That's where the money is, and that's where R&D dollars will be going.

 

[Maiaibing]

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"This is bold prediction, but it’s clear to me that over the next several years, the standalone still camera will disappear from the hands of everyone – with the exception of a few high end professionals."

Could happen.

But if it does its also because CANIKON have no clue about customer oriented interconnectivity. Having worked with bleeding edge IT companies in Japan, I'm not surprised. They have all the tech - simply amazing tech - and little clue how to turn it into workable products for people to buy. There's really a lack of understanding how to build a people centric systems.

Now, Canon recently acknowledged having failed the market in several ways (no high megapix camera, lack of interconnectivity etc.). So they understand the problem. However, when they go on to quote their stand-alone photo-card tv-viewer as a solution you just know they are not on the right track. And - oh where is that Canon Photo Web site they announced with big fanfare last year? (Yeah, I also forgot. Its called Canon Image Gateway and its difficult even to google it unless you know the name. The Danish version has several spelling mistakes on the first page...).

Maybe the best hope for CANIKON - and where the smartphone analogy fails - is that they probably can survive as profitable by selling a mere 12-16 mio. DSLRs per year. So there is only need for so many suckers like you and I to keep the DSLR market alive as it moves towards being high-end body/lens only (SIGMA understood this - and were spot on when they some years ago started developing 1.000$+ lenses instead of their previous 150$ lenses).

"Say no more" :-X

 

[Crosswind]

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(since a cameraphone can't compete on optics).

This alone is the reason why smartphones will never reach the quality of a DSLR.

When talking about small compact cameras, there isn't much quality difference anyway.

If someone doesn't want to carry around a DSLR because it's too "bulky" - well... that's da trade y'have to deal with. I actually enjoy having a DSLR with me everytime I go outta ma house cause it's a very different feeling. I enjoy the world tru my camera lens. It's my passion. Photography is my life.

It's because I am happier with a DSLR out there than with a smartphone or compact camera, no matter the size or weight... even tou I prefer lightweight fix focals and smaller bodys.

Of course I always have my smartphone (moto g2) with me too, but it's not something I'd use for photos or even snapshots (toh it features a pretty good cam for a smartphone).

Btw. I wish that someday a camera like the EOS 100D will also feature a fullframe sensor instead of APSC

 

[jeffa4444]

For the masses he is correct, for serious hobby photographers or pros he is completely wrong and the article fails in a number of ways.
Part of the "hobby" is the kit itself I doubt hobby photographers drual over smartphone camera specs. Then there is the lens limitations, exposure limitations and depth of field limitations not even forgetting the sensor limitations.

Predictions like these have been made before and they went like so. Radio will kill newspapers, cinema will kill radio, TV will kill cinema and the internet will kill TV BUT in every instance including tablets of stone the use has got up not down. Im not saying smartphones have not detroyed the point & shoot market they have, but whilst DSLR sales have come off their 2009 / 2010 peak they are still well above the historical average and lens sales are definately up. Yes I think some of the companies will fail likely Panasonic, Olympus, Samsung etc. in th longer term but then again there is only a handfull of smartphone makers as well and there sales far exceed cameras who would have though we would see the demise of Nokia for instance. I actually hate the limitations of smartphones.

For the duration of my lifetime Im sure DSLRs will be around after all you can still buy film albeit niche and B&W film has actually made a small comeback.

 

[jeffa4444]

Just published!

 

[danski0224]

My phone can act as a Wi Fi hotspot. It is part of my plan.

I don't see an issue with connecting a camera to it, as I have paired several devices to the phone via Wi Fi and Bluetooth.

I don't have a Wi Fi camera to try it.

There are limits with Android. One item I have has to go through an established Wi Fi network because it can't talk to the phone directly. Apple does not have this limitation. Maybe later versions of Android can address that.

 

[dolina]

Here are some numbers to mull on

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2014

42.8 million

Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2014

22.3 million

Looks to me that the "Smartphones Already Won" will come to fruition before 2020.

How to tackle the collapsing camera market

http://youtu.be/bfCJDIf-NeA

 

[untenchicken]

Yesterday, okay, I admit that I WAS rather DRUNK, I tried to call my wife with my eos m for half an hour before realising that it wasn't a phone

 

[dolina]

Yesterday, okay, I admit that I WAS rather DRUNK, I tried to call my wife with my eos m for half an hour before realising that it wasn't a phone

That's why the M2 and M3 arent sold in N. America.

 

[Maiaibing]

Here are some numbers to mull on

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2014
42.8 million

YUP. Its an astounding drop to 1/3 of previous total digital camera sales - albeit with pocket camera's taking the largest hit - but 2014 was also a nightmare for Canon and Nikon DSLR sales.

 

[dolina]

YUP. Its an astounding drop to 1/3 of previous total digital camera sales - albeit with pocket camera's taking the largest hit - but 2014 was also a nightmare for Canon and Nikon DSLR sales.

Per CIPA figures for 2014 of the 42.8 million still cameras produced only 10.32 million were DSLRs.

This contrasts to 2013 figures of 61 million still cameras produced only 13.64 million were DSLRs.

DSLRs are the domain dominated by Canon/Nikon.

I think in 2015 sales for still cameras will drop below 30 million and sales for lenses will drop below 16 million while smartphones will hold steady at around 1.3 billion give or take 0.1 billion units.

Current owners shouldnt worry. Our cameras will work perfectly fine until it breaks down or get stolen just like our PCs that has kept flat growth for the past few years.

Either still camera brands merge/bought out, turn into yet another Android smartphone brand, explore more lucrative markets (ie Cinema EOS) or go higher end (ie point & shoots with larger image sensors or Pentax going full frame/medium format).

Another way to look at the figures is that unless you are a a trend setter/early adopter your average consumer is lengthening the duration of their upgrade cycles as new product segments are created to take their money.

Like say the personal computer, it appears people are going beyond the 3 year upgrade cycle and those buying are first time owners. Those who already have a personal computer are buying a tablet/smartphone instead.

Those people who traditionally bought a point and shoot are now probably happier with a smartphone.

Some stats on smartphone users in 2014 from Samsung.

How smartphones are used

92% use it to take photos
80% use it to send photos

Criteria for buying a smartphone

36% image quality of the camera

 

[dak723]

Yes, smartphones are taking over photography. That's already happening and is no surprise to anyone. For the average person just taking photos for social purposes, the phone will always win, regardless of whether cameras become more web friendly. For most people, if they already have their phones with them, they won't also carry a camera. But as long as folks need zoom lenses there will be a need and a market for interchangeable lens cameras - and not just for pros - but hobbyists as well.

 

[docsmith]

....meh.....

Different markets....A person satisfied with a smart phone as a camera was not likely to ever buy a DSLR. But the "majority" of people out there were never likely to buy a SLR/DSLR. I see smart phones killing the P&S market, but the issue to me for DSLRs isn't smartphones, but the fact that the migration from film to digital is mostly complete. Anyone that wanted a DSLR likely now has one or can now purchase a used one for a very nice price.

So, we've now reached the point where "new" DSLR sales are going to be for those upgrading to a new model or people buying their first DSLR. But the rush of people dumping their SLR for a DSLR is mostly over.

I am sure DSLR sales will decline and Laforet will conclude he was right. But a decline is DSLR sales is nothing more than predicting the obvious. It is only following the trend followed by the introduction of every paradigm shifting (digital DSLRs in this case) technology.

 

[old-pr-pix]

Here is the CIPA forecast for 2015 along with the history going back several years. Taking several decades of film camera users and converting them to digital resulted in the huge bubble in the 2010-2013 timeframe. Likewise, there is a similar bubble in lens shipments - except it lags by about two years. Some points I see...
1) Market saturation is certainly occurring. The question is how low will it go?
2) The camera industry has seen this kind of downturn before and the big players survived. In fact, they seemed to be able to deal with shipments of 3.5 million as a nominal level (although many would say with minimal R&D at those points).
3) The impact of smart phones is most seen in the P&S arena (full CIPA report is at http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/common/cr1000.pdf )
4) I like to think smartphones are great for image capture... perhaps not so good for photography.
5) Anyone who has watched prints coming off a minilab film printer can attest to the fact high image quality is not demanded by the masses. As fast as possible 4x6 prints with most of the faces recognizable is what is desired and "good enough" for many people. Today's expectation is instant sharing of blurry image captures.
6) The smartphone is also the photo album - it's almost 4x6 inch print sized and holds thousands of images. It's easy to pass around and share. DSLR's not so much!

The question is can pros and serious enthusiasts provide sufficient market for the level of development we have come to expect? It used to be the pro bodies were updated on a ten year cycle and lenses even longer. We are likely headed in that direction again.