Smartphones going the way of the dinosaur?

[scyrene]

Incidentally, my take on the article and the survey it's based on - utter rubbish. Firstly, why would members of the public have any insight into what's coming, and especially the time frame? Second, five years is nothing. Even in tech - we've had smartphones far longer than that already. What they can do has improved, but they're still fundamentally the same thing, just a lot faster and more powerful. The next stage of mobile communications I'd wager will come a long way after 2020.

Also, people talk about voice control etc. But there are lots of situations where it's impractical to make searches or receive info in voice form - in noisy environments, in crowded places with lots of other people, etc. A screen allows me to silently interact with my device, and nobody can intercept it unless they get really close and are nosy. Until and unless there's thought control (a long way off, see above), screens will be essential.

 

[applecider]

Dinosaurs ruled the earth for 165 million years. No asteroids in sight.

On the other hand palm didn't see the iphone landing either, and it's gone extinct pretty quick.

Implants for the masses are way more than 5 years ahead, probably have to kill all the lawyers first, because the liability of a failed implant especially one in the optic nerve in already sighted people is high.

 

[rfdesigner]

Somehow, looking at the general growth of Smart Phones and Apps, I doubt it. Smart phones will become smarter. That's where huge amounts of R&D dollars are already being spent on phones that will be used 5 years from now.

Probably true, except that the phones will have to become smaller. Some of them now are almost as large as tablets. I can remember when the "in" thing was to buy the smallest possible cell phone. Then the internet and smartphone came into being.

I think this is more the immediate future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7GpVQCfms

Implanted chips are not far behind.

Imagine an app in an implanted chip that uses the human eye to take photos through the neuro pathways between brain and eye. Already there are artificial lenses implanted into the eyes of cataract patients. My grandmother of 92 years has 20/20 vision, no astigmatism and sees clearly through hers.

Now imagine a lens implant that can zoom and an app that allows one to change ISO and aperture as a function of the brain.

It's hard to argue against futurism, but it's worth remembering that an artificial lens is a damn sight easier to produce - quite feasible - than getting detailed readout from nerves, which is what you're talking about. Plus the lens is at the front of the eye, the retina and nerves at the back...

It makes great science fiction, but given where we are with artificial limbs that can sense, and direct brain-computer interfaces (both in their infancy), it'll be a long time before you can get readouts of the optic nerve and convert them into any kind of usable image - even assuming it was possible to insert a device to a healthy person without damage, affordable, and sanctioned by the medical authorities (not to mention the human eye works very differently to a digital sensor - unless you mean insert a CMOS, in which case why not just wear it, as we already can in smart glasses etc?)

Implanted chips (just under the skin?) that measure blood sugar etc are much more realistic and required, and I suspect will be coming soon.

The last company I worked for (Imperial Colledge spin out) developed wearable medical kit. One identified avenue for research was a patch of micro-needles that could just puncture the upper leyers of skin and sample the interstitial layer. Measuring the blood sugar in this was intended to allow a wearable device to alert the diabetic wearer to administer insulin on a continuous real time basis. The biggest problem was rejection by the human body which would render the microneedles useless within a remarkably short period of time.

The tech is comming.. but there are huge problems with anything to do with medical.

It's not just the medicine angle.. clearly you don't want to harm anyone; It's also data. In the the UK there is the "Data Protection Act". All data collected by medical devices is "owned" by the patient. you cannot allow that data to be mixed up with other peoples data, and any hospital must look after the data, a doctor can't just data-mine a load of NHS patent records.. it was certianly a major issue for the products I worked on.

So what happens to images from any implanted cameras?.. is it medical?.. can we treat them like a photo from your phone?.. there's some lawyer fees in there somewhere.

 

[mkabi]

AI??? In 5 years??? Oh noes... Judgement Day is coming...

 

[danski0224]

We really cannot imagine what 5 or 10 years from now will offer up.

I recall the IBM PC from ~1985 with a color monitor and it was pushing $4,000.00.

The smart phones of today were unimaginable when I saw my first bag phone. The Star Tac was a big deal

Portable devices with crystal clear screens would have been unthinkable when the first consumer portable LCD televisions were available in the early 1980's. I remember a portable TV that had an actual CRT that must have been no more than 2" across and it sold for almost a grand.

That stuff is more than 5 years ago, but even 5 year old phones are no match for current models.

The next revolution will be 3 dimensional optical storage and eventually optical computers. Quantum computers are already being built. The stuff of science fiction today... science fact tomorrow.

Then there will be The Singularity.

 

[scyrene]

Somehow, looking at the general growth of Smart Phones and Apps, I doubt it. Smart phones will become smarter. That's where huge amounts of R&D dollars are already being spent on phones that will be used 5 years from now.

Probably true, except that the phones will have to become smaller. Some of them now are almost as large as tablets. I can remember when the "in" thing was to buy the smallest possible cell phone. Then the internet and smartphone came into being.

I think this is more the immediate future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7GpVQCfms

Implanted chips are not far behind.

Imagine an app in an implanted chip that uses the human eye to take photos through the neuro pathways between brain and eye. Already there are artificial lenses implanted into the eyes of cataract patients. My grandmother of 92 years has 20/20 vision, no astigmatism and sees clearly through hers.

Now imagine a lens implant that can zoom and an app that allows one to change ISO and aperture as a function of the brain.

It's hard to argue against futurism, but it's worth remembering that an artificial lens is a damn sight easier to produce - quite feasible - than getting detailed readout from nerves, which is what you're talking about. Plus the lens is at the front of the eye, the retina and nerves at the back...

It makes great science fiction, but given where we are with artificial limbs that can sense, and direct brain-computer interfaces (both in their infancy), it'll be a long time before you can get readouts of the optic nerve and convert them into any kind of usable image - even assuming it was possible to insert a device to a healthy person without damage, affordable, and sanctioned by the medical authorities (not to mention the human eye works very differently to a digital sensor - unless you mean insert a CMOS, in which case why not just wear it, as we already can in smart glasses etc?)

Implanted chips (just under the skin?) that measure blood sugar etc are much more realistic and required, and I suspect will be coming soon.

The last company I worked for (Imperial Colledge spin out) developed wearable medical kit. One identified avenue for research was a patch of micro-needles that could just puncture the upper leyers of skin and sample the interstitial layer. Measuring the blood sugar in this was intended to allow a wearable device to alert the diabetic wearer to administer insulin on a continuous real time basis. The biggest problem was rejection by the human body which would render the microneedles useless within a remarkably short period of time.

The tech is comming.. but there are huge problems with anything to do with medical.

It's not just the medicine angle.. clearly you don't want to harm anyone; It's also data. In the the UK there is the "Data Protection Act". All data collected by medical devices is "owned" by the patient. you cannot allow that data to be mixed up with other peoples data, and any hospital must look after the data, a doctor can't just data-mine a load of NHS patent records.. it was certianly a major issue for the products I worked on.

So what happens to images from any implanted cameras?.. is it medical?.. can we treat them like a photo from your phone?.. there's some lawyer fees in there somewhere.

Fascinating insight!

 

[IMG_0001]

My take on this story, the dinosaurs are not ready for smartphones yet.

 

[TheJock]

I think I found the reason why phones done a complete U-Turn and became larger ;D

 

[Ozarker]

I think I found the reason why phones done a complete U-Turn and became larger ;D

That's funny Stewart! ;D

 

[TheJock]

I think I found the reason why phones done a complete U-Turn and became larger ;D

That's funny Stewart! ;D

It was an IT guy in my office that sent this round, I took a photo of the screen to share it as it was a word doc, it appealed to my sense of humour too ;D

 

[AcutancePhotography]

I would opine that some of the biggest influences of computer/internet development have been games and porn.

So I heard. I personally have no experience in this at all. Not my thing, but I am tolerant of others. As long as no one is being harmed, I don't see a problem with games on the internet.

 

[Mt Spokane Photography]

Somehow, looking at the general growth of Smart Phones and Apps, I doubt it. Smart phones will become smarter. That's where huge amounts of R&D dollars are already being spent on phones that will be used 5 years from now.

Probably true, except that the phones will have to become smaller. Some of them now are almost as large as tablets. I can remember when the "in" thing was to buy the smallest possible cell phone. Then the internet and smartphone came into being.


Larger is selling. I even broke down and bought the large screen iPhone, because it was big enough for me to use. Obviously, some people will do better with small phones, but Apple was forced to increase the size from the original small screen due to poor sales.

Their Watch is a flop, but may eventually catch on. I could see one useful application for me. I use a hearing aid, and the newer ones will communicate directly with a smart phone. The issue is that a person must still wear a external microphone. The Apple Watch solves that issue, since it carries the microphone.

When I eventually upgrade my hearing aid, I'll be looking at that for a solution.
I think this is more the immediate future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7GpVQCfms

Implanted chips are not far behind.

Imagine an app in an implanted chip that uses the human eye to take photos through the neuro pathways between brain and eye. Already there are artificial lenses implanted into the eyes of cataract patients. My grandmother of 92 years has 20/20 vision, no astigmatism and sees clearly through hers.

Now imagine a lens implant that can zoom and an app that allows one to change ISO and aperture as a function of the brain.

 

[Ozarker]

I would opine that some of the biggest influences of computer/internet development have been games and porn.

So I heard. I personally have no experience in this at all. Not my thing, but I am tolerant of others. As long as no one is being harmed, I don't see a problem with games on the internet.

Porn is also the reason we VHS beat BETA... if anyone even remembers either.

 

[Ozarker]

Somehow, looking at the general growth of Smart Phones and Apps, I doubt it. Smart phones will become smarter. That's where huge amounts of R&D dollars are already being spent on phones that will be used 5 years from now.

Probably true, except that the phones will have to become smaller. Some of them now are almost as large as tablets. I can remember when the "in" thing was to buy the smallest possible cell phone. Then the internet and smartphone came into being.


Larger is selling. I even broke down and bought the large screen iPhone, because it was big enough for me to use. Obviously, some people will do better with small phones, but Apple was forced to increase the size from the original small screen due to poor sales.

Their Watch is a flop, but may eventually catch on. I could see one useful application for me. I use a hearing aid, and the newer ones will communicate directly with a smart phone. The issue is that a person must still wear a external microphone. The Apple Watch solves that issue, since it carries the microphone.

When I eventually upgrade my hearing aid, I'll be looking at that for a solution.
I think this is more the immediate future:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7GpVQCfms

Implanted chips are not far behind.

Imagine an app in an implanted chip that uses the human eye to take photos through the neuro pathways between brain and eye. Already there are artificial lenses implanted into the eyes of cataract patients. My grandmother of 92 years has 20/20 vision, no astigmatism and sees clearly through hers.

Now imagine a lens implant that can zoom and an app that allows one to change ISO and aperture as a function of the brain.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/12/23/global-smartphone-brands-face-mass-extinction/

"Smartphone brands are heading for extinction in 2016. The industry’s growth rate dipped below 10 percent this year. Apple and Samsung’s high-end phones are taking most of the spoils, while upstarts like China’s Xiaomi are picking up first-time buyers. Loss-making brands from HTC to Sony may be forced to conclude the game is over."

Mt. Spokane, aren't cochlear implants and pacemakers examples of implanted tech? There are people fretting about the possible liability from implantable tech but it is already happening. I'm sure there is more I do not know about. The next 20 years will be amazing as far as tech goes I think.

Back in the late 80's I was speaking to two old men who told me how they hid in the bushes when they heard the first car they had ever seen approaching.

Now tech advances at a faster rate each year. Fascinating.

 

[Eldar]

It´s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future ...

I´m sure we will see major new technology break throughs in the coming years and I am also sure we don´t have a clue today, about what kind of technologies we carry with us in 10 years time. But the big changes tend to take longer than we believe.

I think smartphones will die a bit harder than my old colleagues at Ericsson believe. It is simply too convenient to have so much and versatile functionality available in one unit, with a common user interface, very low learning threshold and a fantastic infrastructure available. Phone, email, social media, banking, games, video, music, camera, ticketing ... the list goes on and on. It has become the most complete all singing & dancing machine we have ever seen. I do not doubt that we will see other technologies/systems/platforms available in the next 5 years, that may become the future alternatives, but I doubt it will be at an industrialised scale and in any way life threatening to smart phones.

But I would expect smartphones to become more diversified in the coming years. Today, the iPhone 5&6 and their lookalikes rule, with a very unified form, size and functionality. In the future we may well see more specialised versions, targeting niche groups and probably also more modular. The main issue will be the display function. Today that is the only thing that dictates size and form. When you are able to solve that in a more convenient, practical and economically viable way, then we can see major changes. But as long as sharing of information, images, videos etc. are as important to the users as they are, it would have to be something several people can view simultaneously. I have my doubts that a networked eye implantat, worn by everyone, would be the answer.

Implants are available and they will develop into things we can hardly imagine. But would you actually agree to put something in your eye, brain, ear, heart or whatever, to get that kind of functionality, unless it was life critical? I would not. Considering also that the crap you put in your eye or brain would be obsolete in a couple of years, replaced with something much cooler and more versatile ... I don´t think so. For me it would have to be something I can replace myself, without potential consequence or side effect.

How this will influence the camera & lens market as we know it ... I don´t have a clue. People are getting bigger and bigger screens at home, with higher and higher resolution. Maybe they will see the benefits of a good camera/lens combo then .. or maybe a new sensor technology comes along, giving us a tiny sensor with 50MP, 15 stop DR and 3D at 1M ISO, giving us a 600mm equivalent from a lens the size of a small coffee cup ... :

 

[scyrene]

Implants are available and they will develop into things we can hardly imagine. But would you actually agree to put something in your eye, brain, ear, heart or whatever, to get that kind of functionality, unless it was life critical? I would not. Considering also that the crap you put in your eye or brain would be obsolete in a couple of years, replaced with something much cooler and more versatile ... I don´t think so. For me it would have to be something I can replace myself, without potential consequence or side effect.

Quite so. Implants exist, but they are essentially only medical in nature. And like all conventional medical interventions, they had to undergo years of testing to ensure safety, and are inserted by trained professionals.

'Leisure' implants will come along eventually I'm sure, but they are a long way off - way more than 5 years. If they ever become mainstream, it'll be far longer than that (I imagine the closest analogue is cosmetic surgery - expensive, largely performed by professionals, and enduringly controversial).

 

[Don Haines]

Implants are available and they will develop into things we can hardly imagine. But would you actually agree to put something in your eye, brain, ear, heart or whatever, to get that kind of functionality, unless it was life critical? I would not. Considering also that the crap you put in your eye or brain would be obsolete in a couple of years, replaced with something much cooler and more versatile ... I don´t think so. For me it would have to be something I can replace myself, without potential consequence or side effect.

Quite so. Implants exist, but they are essentially only medical in nature. And like all conventional medical interventions, they had to undergo years of testing to ensure safety, and are inserted by trained professionals.

'Leisure' implants will come along eventually I'm sure, but they are a long way off - way more than 5 years. If they ever become mainstream, it'll be far longer than that (I imagine the closest analogue is cosmetic surgery - expensive, largely performed by professionals, and enduringly controversial).

you will be assimilated!

 

[Ozarker]

Implants are available and they will develop into things we can hardly imagine. But would you actually agree to put something in your eye, brain, ear, heart or whatever, to get that kind of functionality, unless it was life critical? I would not. Considering also that the crap you put in your eye or brain would be obsolete in a couple of years, replaced with something much cooler and more versatile ... I don´t think so. For me it would have to be something I can replace myself, without potential consequence or side effect.

'Leisure' implants will come along eventually I'm sure, but they are a long way off - way more than 5 years. If they ever become mainstream, it'll be far longer than that (I imagine the closest analogue is cosmetic surgery - expensive, largely performed by professionals, and enduringly controversial).

Here's an interesting article:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/08/tech/forget-wearable-tech-embeddable-implants/

While we older folks tend to be more "pragmatic?" it will be the young who will drive this I think.

"Appropriately enough, a priority among Lee's 130 projects are 'adult industry' implants for erogenous zones to maximize pleasure, for which he anticipates major commercial interest."

Just like the VCR, sex will be the decider.

Further out I would expect that being able to program a person's brain is going to make the biggest difference.

http://fusion.net/story/204316/darpa-is-implanting-chips-in-soldiers-brains/

The only real reason to clone oneself would be to live forever, but unless one can transfer one's brain to the clone (not robot like this article) there is no such thing as living forever through clones.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-04/see-future-of-artificial-intelligence-in-mind-clone-robot

I've heard people say, "I don't want to live that long." when talking about life, death, and centenarians. However, I think we'd all want to keep on going if it were possible to have a new healthy body every 20 years or so.

But back on topic:

William Gibson
Author

It’ll All Be in Your Head
Electrocorticographic (EcoG) chips have let research subjects use their minds to move computer cursors. Could implanted smartphones eventually follow? “The equivalent of the iPhone 15 might well consist of a pair of corneal Augmented Reality implants, a pair of cochlear implants for audio, and whatever small wireless thingy links them all to one or another quantum cloud.”

 

[tcmatthews]

Smart phones have gone through the same commoditization cycle as earlier technology such as the personal computer and other consumer goods before it. These cycles have accelerated as technology has advanced but one thing should be clear by now. They have a very long tail. PC are not going anywhere. Smartphones will be with us for a long time. They will just not be the next big thing anymore.

Convergence is more likely than extinction. Smartphones, PCs, tablets will converge into one device. Wearables will become invisibly woven into our clothing. Implants will become common at some point. Until we get to the point where we can buy Spanish 101 pills. Smartphones will be the gateway to these devices. Displays and input devices will be wirelessly connected to expand there capabilities. Speech, augmented reality and media will served up though web services i.e. the cloud.

Smartphones will need a screen until visual implants are common because nobody wants to be caught with stupid display goggles. In the process smartphones will become so cheap they will be given away so that the services can be sold.

 

[scyrene]

Implants are available and they will develop into things we can hardly imagine. But would you actually agree to put something in your eye, brain, ear, heart or whatever, to get that kind of functionality, unless it was life critical? I would not. Considering also that the crap you put in your eye or brain would be obsolete in a couple of years, replaced with something much cooler and more versatile ... I don´t think so. For me it would have to be something I can replace myself, without potential consequence or side effect.

'Leisure' implants will come along eventually I'm sure, but they are a long way off - way more than 5 years. If they ever become mainstream, it'll be far longer than that (I imagine the closest analogue is cosmetic surgery - expensive, largely performed by professionals, and enduringly controversial).

Here's an interesting article:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/08/tech/forget-wearable-tech-embeddable-implants/

While we older folks tend to be more "pragmatic?" it will be the young who will drive this I think.

"Appropriately enough, a priority among Lee's 130 projects are 'adult industry' implants for erogenous zones to maximize pleasure, for which he anticipates major commercial interest."

Just like the VCR, sex will be the decider.

Further out I would expect that being able to program a person's brain is going to make the biggest difference.

http://fusion.net/story/204316/darpa-is-implanting-chips-in-soldiers-brains/

The only real reason to clone oneself would be to live forever, but unless one can transfer one's brain to the clone (not robot like this article) there is no such thing as living forever through clones.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-02-04/see-future-of-artificial-intelligence-in-mind-clone-robot

I've heard people say, "I don't want to live that long." when talking about life, death, and centenarians. However, I think we'd all want to keep on going if it were possible to have a new healthy body every 20 years or so.

But back on topic:

William Gibson
Author

It’ll All Be in Your Head
Electrocorticographic (EcoG) chips have let research subjects use their minds to move computer cursors. Could implanted smartphones eventually follow? “The equivalent of the iPhone 15 might well consist of a pair of corneal Augmented Reality implants, a pair of cochlear implants for audio, and whatever small wireless thingy links them all to one or another quantum cloud.”

Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.