Smartphones going the way of the dinosaur?

scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.
 
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rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.

One wouldn't need a wired connection if the device was implanted. Certainly not a USB type port. WiFi or better yet, something that could change the implanted computer's programming just by being brought near the implanted computer. As micro technology gets smaller and smaller the devices become more and more probable. The computing power and memory of your smartphone today would not have fit inside your house just 35 years ago. Implanted chips are already placed inside dogs and some humans that are read with a reader. Those chips are the size of a grain of rice.

When implantable devices are used it won't be something the size of a smartphone. It won't require surgery.

Even for an ocular implant, it isn't so much that a zoom lens would have to be implanted (though it could be), rather, the hurdle would be to change the way the brain perceives the scene.

Yes, today much of this is science fiction... but tomorrow it is reality. Of course, the original post IS about the future... which is always fiction until it gets here.

From an 1899 issue of Punch Magazine:
 

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CanonFanBoy said:
rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.

One wouldn't need a wired connection if the device was implanted. Certainly not a USB type port. WiFi or better yet, something that could change the implanted computer's programming just by being brought near the implanted computer. As micro technology gets smaller and smaller the devices become more and more probable. The computing power and memory of your smartphone today would not have fit inside your house just 35 years ago. Implanted chips are already placed inside dogs and some humans that are read with a reader. Those chips are the size of a grain of rice.

When implantable devices are used it won't be something the size of a smartphone. It won't require surgery.

Even for an ocular implant, it isn't so much that a zoom lens would have to be implanted (though it could be), rather, the hurdle would be to change the way the brain perceives the scene.

Yes, today much of this is science fiction... but tomorrow it is reality. Of course, the original post IS about the future... which is always fiction until it gets here.

From an 1899 issue of Punch Magazine:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the chips in dogs etc are just RFID - they're passive, and activated by an external signal. While not simple devices, they are a far cry from a smartphone.

Your general point is true - that technology is small, and getting smaller. But it does not follow that surgery would not be required - cf. the current human implantables, like cochlear implants and pacemakers.

As for augmenting human sight, first our eyes work rather differently from a camera in some crucial ways - especially in the sense that much of what we think we see is constructed in the brain - and second, we are nowhere near the level of knowledge or fineness of engineering to interact with neurological signals at the required level of sophistication. Neuroscience is still in its infancy.

It's easy to make wild scifi claims about the future. But the original post was a prediction, from a poll, that smartphones would be replaced by some newer technology within five years. That is still laughable. And not every wishful 'prediction' can or will come true, just because we want it to. Sorry!
 
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scyrene said:
CanonFanBoy said:
rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.

One wouldn't need a wired connection if the device was implanted. Certainly not a USB type port. WiFi or better yet, something that could change the implanted computer's programming just by being brought near the implanted computer. As micro technology gets smaller and smaller the devices become more and more probable. The computing power and memory of your smartphone today would not have fit inside your house just 35 years ago. Implanted chips are already placed inside dogs and some humans that are read with a reader. Those chips are the size of a grain of rice.

When implantable devices are used it won't be something the size of a smartphone. It won't require surgery.

Even for an ocular implant, it isn't so much that a zoom lens would have to be implanted (though it could be), rather, the hurdle would be to change the way the brain perceives the scene.

Yes, today much of this is science fiction... but tomorrow it is reality. Of course, the original post IS about the future... which is always fiction until it gets here.

From an 1899 issue of Punch Magazine:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the chips in dogs etc are just RFID - they're passive, and activated by an external signal. While not simple devices, they are a far cry from a smartphone.

Your general point is true - that technology is small, and getting smaller. But it does not follow that surgery would not be required - cf. the current human implantables, like cochlear implants and pacemakers.

As for augmenting human sight, first our eyes work rather differently from a camera in some crucial ways - especially in the sense that much of what we think we see is constructed in the brain - and second, we are nowhere near the level of knowledge or fineness of engineering to interact with neurological signals at the required level of sophistication. Neuroscience is still in its infancy.

It's easy to make wild scifi claims about the future. But the original post was a prediction, from a poll, that smartphones would be replaced by some newer technology within five years. That is still laughable. And not every wishful 'prediction' can or will come true, just because we want it to. Sorry!

+1

until repair of the spinal cord is a standard procedure (hooking up all those neural signals correctly) then implantable communications won't happen.
 
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scyrene said:
CanonFanBoy said:
rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.

One wouldn't need a wired connection if the device was implanted. Certainly not a USB type port. WiFi or better yet, something that could change the implanted computer's programming just by being brought near the implanted computer. As micro technology gets smaller and smaller the devices become more and more probable. The computing power and memory of your smartphone today would not have fit inside your house just 35 years ago. Implanted chips are already placed inside dogs and some humans that are read with a reader. Those chips are the size of a grain of rice.

When implantable devices are used it won't be something the size of a smartphone. It won't require surgery.

Even for an ocular implant, it isn't so much that a zoom lens would have to be implanted (though it could be), rather, the hurdle would be to change the way the brain perceives the scene.

Yes, today much of this is science fiction... but tomorrow it is reality. Of course, the original post IS about the future... which is always fiction until it gets here.

From an 1899 issue of Punch Magazine:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the chips in dogs etc are just RFID - they're passive, and activated by an external signal. While not simple devices, they are a far cry from a smartphone.

Your general point is true - that technology is small, and getting smaller. But it does not follow that surgery would not be required - cf. the current human implantables, like cochlear implants and pacemakers.

As for augmenting human sight, first our eyes work rather differently from a camera in some crucial ways - especially in the sense that much of what we think we see is constructed in the brain - and second, we are nowhere near the level of knowledge or fineness of engineering to interact with neurological signals at the required level of sophistication. Neuroscience is still in its infancy.

It's easy to make wild scifi claims about the future. But the original post was a prediction, from a poll, that smartphones would be replaced by some newer technology within five years. That is still laughable. And not every wishful 'prediction' can or will come true, just because we want it to. Sorry!

Yes, the rfid chips are passive. Why ask for forgiveness? You knew that already. You didn't guess. ;)

I have not made any wishful predictions. None. I actually do not like smartphones at all. Nor do I like the idea of implantable devices by the likes of google or anyone else. I think you are making some assumptions that are a little off base.

All science is in its infancy. However, one never knows when the next breakthrough will come.

My prediction in my post is that once tech is small enough, it will be implanted much like the rfid chips in pets (and now humans too). That won't require surgery. Just a needle under the skin. I did not say that rfid chips were active computers.

Sorry? Why?

Every prediction about the future can be classified as "wild". Including the ones about lenses and cameras on this board. Silly. Posting a story does not mean I necessarily believe or agree with it. It's just a fun conversation starter.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/12/tech/innovation/google-throat-tattoo/

Here's the most interesting blurb:

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/171992-motorola-patents-e-tattoo-that-can-read-your-thoughts-by-listening-to-unvocalized-words-in-your-throat
 
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rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
CanonFanBoy said:
rfdesigner said:
scyrene said:
Once again, the law is likely to be the block, in the near term. Soldiers have been subject to all sorts of things that wouldn't be allowed for the general public. And even if there was a demand from younger people (and I'm not convinced many would be willing to have an invasive medical procedure just to have a better porn experience), the law would have to allow it - and laws tend to be conservative, not least because older people vote more. It may happen, but it's decades away from being mainstream, as I keep saying.

Tech people always have an overly optimistic attitude. All sorts of things will be possible, assuming our culture doesn't collapse any time soon. But the more outlandish stuff - nanobots repairing our bodies, augmented senses for those without disabilities, household humanoid robots - is still the stuff of science fiction.

agreed.. the number of issues is enormous.

Personally I don't think we'll ever see embedded smartphones, what we'll see is some kind of embedded standard communication port, like USB.

i.e. buy your smartphone and have an embedded communication link to that device.. all the new whizzy software is on the device, so you change your smartphone every six months but don't need an op every time you upgrade.

The biggest problem is the same as for those women who've had breast implants.. they need renewing every 10 years or so. I certainly don't want anything inserted that would let me in for a series of operations just for a cool feature, but the fact that women go for those implants prove there is a market for implantables.

One wouldn't need a wired connection if the device was implanted. Certainly not a USB type port. WiFi or better yet, something that could change the implanted computer's programming just by being brought near the implanted computer. As micro technology gets smaller and smaller the devices become more and more probable. The computing power and memory of your smartphone today would not have fit inside your house just 35 years ago. Implanted chips are already placed inside dogs and some humans that are read with a reader. Those chips are the size of a grain of rice.

When implantable devices are used it won't be something the size of a smartphone. It won't require surgery.

Even for an ocular implant, it isn't so much that a zoom lens would have to be implanted (though it could be), rather, the hurdle would be to change the way the brain perceives the scene.

Yes, today much of this is science fiction... but tomorrow it is reality. Of course, the original post IS about the future... which is always fiction until it gets here.

From an 1899 issue of Punch Magazine:

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but the chips in dogs etc are just RFID - they're passive, and activated by an external signal. While not simple devices, they are a far cry from a smartphone.

Your general point is true - that technology is small, and getting smaller. But it does not follow that surgery would not be required - cf. the current human implantables, like cochlear implants and pacemakers.

As for augmenting human sight, first our eyes work rather differently from a camera in some crucial ways - especially in the sense that much of what we think we see is constructed in the brain - and second, we are nowhere near the level of knowledge or fineness of engineering to interact with neurological signals at the required level of sophistication. Neuroscience is still in its infancy.

It's easy to make wild scifi claims about the future. But the original post was a prediction, from a poll, that smartphones would be replaced by some newer technology within five years. That is still laughable. And not every wishful 'prediction' can or will come true, just because we want it to. Sorry!

+1

until repair of the spinal cord is a standard procedure (hooking up all those neural signals correctly) then implantable communications won't happen.

Not true.
 
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rfdesigner said:
CanonFanBoy said:
rfdesigner said:
+1

until repair of the spinal cord is a standard procedure (hooking up all those neural signals correctly) then implantable communications won't happen.

Not true.

fine.. why?

Because it is not. Implantable communications devices are not nearly so complex. Integrating them into the body isn't either. And because I said so.
 
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This is closer to the actual story. There will likely be consolidation, and many brands will fold or more likely be bought up by the big players. There are not enough customers wanting new phones, and those replacing phones are looking for the top brands.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/12/23/global-smartphone-brands-face-mass-extinction/
 
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Mt Spokane Photography said:
This is closer to the actual story. There will likely be consolidation, and many brands will fold or more likely be bought up by the big players. There are not enough customers wanting new phones, and those replacing phones are looking for the top brands.

http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2015/12/23/global-smartphone-brands-face-mass-extinction/

Yup. My OP was actually tongue in cheek. That's why I put a question mark at the end of the post headline and stated, "Maybe there's hope for DSLRs afterall?" ;)

It was sort of my response to the crowd claiming smartphone tech is going to replace DSLRs and that Canon will die, etc...

Some took it real seriously and even took it to say that I was saying smartphones would go the way of the dinosaur. I just stoked the fires after that. ;)

I do think there will be a huge push for implantable computers by the large data mining firms. Many do not realize that those little white boxes along the streets pointing down at the traffic lanes are more than just tools for planers. They are also RFID readers.

The FCC has also mandated that all phones have GPS by 2018... for our safety, of course.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/fcc-to-mandate-gps-in-all-phones-by-2018/

With embeddable tech one cannot just leave the phone at home. Your location will always be known by someone who wants to know. It's great knowing Big Brother just wants us to be safe. I just love him.
 
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CanonFanBoy said:
The FCC has also mandated that all phones have GPS by 2018... for our safety, of course.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/fcc-to-mandate-gps-in-all-phones-by-2018/

With embeddable tech one cannot just leave the phone at home. Your location will always be known by someone who wants to know. It's great knowing Big Brother just wants us to be safe. I just love him.

Another Bogus post- a long since disproven article from 2011?
 
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Mt Spokane Photography said:
CanonFanBoy said:
The FCC has also mandated that all phones have GPS by 2018... for our safety, of course.

http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/fcc-to-mandate-gps-in-all-phones-by-2018/

With embeddable tech one cannot just leave the phone at home. Your location will always be known by someone who wants to know. It's great knowing Big Brother just wants us to be safe. I just love him.

Another Bogus post- a long since disproven article from 2011?

I can't find where it has been disproven, but maybe it has. There is, though, this from the FCC in 2001:

https://transition.fcc.gov/pshs/services/911-services/enhanced911/archives/factsheet_requirements_012001.pdf

And then this from 2015:

https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/911-wireless-services

Both are from the FCC itself. There are requirements for providers to provide accurate location data within a range specified based on the tech used. What is the most accurate way and cheapest way to meet the requirement? Some are using PSAPs and some are using GPS. I would think the answer is GPS. That is also a feature most consumers demand.

I believe the most stringent requirement is 50 meters. Over time, the tech will get more and more accurate. Triangulation only works if three cell towers can get the signal. In more isolated areas... this is a real problem.

I used to travel to Spokane to do some work at Triumph Composites. There are some very isolated stretches out that way.
 
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CanonFanBoy said:
Both are from the FCC itself. There are requirements for providers to provide accurate location data within a range specified based on the tech used. What is the most accurate way and cheapest way to meet the requirement? Some are using PSAPs and some are using GPS. I would think the answer is GPS. That is also a feature most consumers demand.

I believe the most stringent requirement is 50 meters. Over time, the tech will get more and more accurate. Triangulation only works if three cell towers can get the signal. In more isolated areas... this is a real problem.

I used to travel to Spokane to do some work at Triumph Composites. There are some very isolated stretches out that way.
Usually GPS is more accurate. A phone can be accurate down to 2 meters under ideal conditions, less when the view of the sky is blocked by buildings and foliage and you can only pick up a few satellites. That said, cell tower triangulation is more than accurate enough (10 meters or less) in most populated areas....

As you said, rural areas are a problem... for example, I live outside of Ottawa Ontario and can only pick up two towers.... my reported position toggles between a small town in Ontario and a small town in Quebec.... line of sight between the two locations is about 20K and because of the river in between it's a 100K drive from one to the other.... kind of useless for 911 :(
 
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Don Haines said:
CanonFanBoy said:
Both are from the FCC itself. There are requirements for providers to provide accurate location data within a range specified based on the tech used. What is the most accurate way and cheapest way to meet the requirement? Some are using PSAPs and some are using GPS. I would think the answer is GPS. That is also a feature most consumers demand.

I believe the most stringent requirement is 50 meters. Over time, the tech will get more and more accurate. Triangulation only works if three cell towers can get the signal. In more isolated areas... this is a real problem.

I used to travel to Spokane to do some work at Triumph Composites. There are some very isolated stretches out that way.
Usually GPS is more accurate. A phone can be accurate down to 2 meters under ideal conditions, less when the view of the sky is blocked by buildings and foliage and you can only pick up a few satellites. That said, cell tower triangulation is more than accurate enough (10 meters or less) in most populated areas....

As you said, rural areas are a problem... for example, I live outside of Ottawa Ontario and can only pick up two towers.... my reported position toggles between a small town in Ontario and a small town in Quebec.... line of sight between the two locations is about 20K and because of the river in between it's a 100K drive from one to the other.... kind of useless for 911 :(
Yes, GPS is surely the way for you.

They want accuracy enough to also gauge what floor of a building a person is on and what suite. Wow.
 
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