I have had the Canon R5, R5 Mark ii, 800mm f/11, 200-800mm f/9 and 100-500mm f/7.1 since their respective releases, along with a 1.4 TC. I mostly shoot small birds and wildlife. I found I almost never used the 800mm f/11 after a while, I was always using the 100-500mm with the 1.4 TC instead. It just gave visually better results despite the slightly shorter focal length. Once I got the 200-800mm f/9 I began using it more and more. Comparing real world photos of small songbirds in the same light I almost always get better results using the 200-800 vs the 100-500 with the 1.4. The 200-800mm isn't a great lens, if you can approach your subject closer the 100-500 with no TC is significantly better. But in the field and in real world use since you can rarely approach small wildlife close enough to avoid a lot of cropping with the 500, the 800 gives me better results even when I zoom all the way in to 800.
I also noticed the 200-800 does not take the 1.4tc very well, its useful for id shots of distant subjects really only, and its useful for video of distant subjects but not much else.
If 500mm is enough, the 100-500 is a lot better. If 200 is enough, the 70-200 f/2.8's are a lot better than the 100-500. But additional cropping you wind up doing with the 500 means your results will almost always be worse than if you had used the 200-800.
Anyway my real world experience with these 3 lenses mirrors your measurements and observations. Thanks so much for the analysis!