The Sad Truth About Canon's Future?

Jul 21, 2010
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Thats my whole point. Canon is marketing to these people wrong.
So you know more about marketing cameras than the company that has led the industry for 20 years. LOL, okidokie.

Canon is clearlly not know for looking ahead. Heck they had to go to the mirrorless market kicking and screaming after Sony paved the way.
Revisionist history is fun. When Sony 'paved the way' into the mirrorless market, Canon was leading the DSLR market in which Sony was failing to be competitive. Why would Canon 'look forward' and abandon a market that comprised the vast majority of ILCs being sold, a market they were leading? It was about a decade until MILC sales overtook DLSR sales.

Incidentally, Sony really didn't 'pave the way' to mirrorless. Epson released the first APS-C MILC back in 2004, followed by Leica in 2006. Then Panasonic and Olympus launched m4/3 MILCs in 2008/2009. Sony didn't enter the MILC space until 2010 with their APS-C NEX line. Given camera/lens development timelines, Canon probably started working on APS-C MILC development about that time.

When Canon entered the APS-C MILC market in 2012, Sony did 'pave the way' into FF MILC cameras. It took about 5 years for the M-series to beat out Sony and become the best-selling APS-C MILC globally (at it's peak, about 17% of all cameras sold worldwide were EOS M). Then in 2018, Canon entered the FF MILC market. Last year, Canon took over for Sony as the #1 overall MILC brand in Japan (and of course, they continue to dominate the ILC market globally).

The real question is where will Sony run to now? They'll probably divest their ILCs as they did with the Vaio line.

The net sales for this division is less than HALF of what it was a just 8 years ago and yet Sony's division is up 45%. Again because they are making sensors to be put smarthphones and not just cameras.
Yes, Sony is doing very well with sensors. But what Sony division are you talking about, that is up 45%? If you are referring to Imaging (formally Imaging & Sensing Solutions), you should be aware that cameras are not part of the division, they're currently grouped with Entertainment, Technology & Services. Sony has played the shell game with their cameras, moving them from one division to another several times over the past 5 years. Almost like they're trying to hide something... (From past experience in large companies, senior people with 'pet projects' often have them moved from one division to another, so no one actually figures out how much money the project is losing.)
 
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So you know more about marketing cameras than the company that has led the industry for 20 years. LOL, okidokie.

You're argument seems to be that companies are incapable of making mistakes and whatever decision they make must be the right decision because the company made it. I'm sure there were plenty of random people saying how they like streaming better but Blockbuster was the expert because it was their business right?
Yes, Sony is doing very well with sensors. But what Sony division are you talking about, that is up 45%? If you are referring to Imaging (formally Imaging & Sensing Solutions), you should be aware that cameras are not part of the division, they're currently grouped with Entertainment, Technology & Services. Sony has played the shell game with their cameras, moving them from one division to another several times over the past 5 years. Almost like they're trying to hide something... (From past experience in large companies, senior people with 'pet projects' often have them moved from one division to another, so no one actually figures out how much money the project is losing.)

I think were talking past each other. Let me clarify to confirm were on the same page. I think BOTH Sony and Canon know the camera market is dying and are preparing their companies for that transition. Canon has moved in the medical systems to offset the loss in revenue. Sony has decided to make sensors for smartphones. They put out a press release saying smartphones quality will overatke camera quality so they are essentially saying hey these cameras we make will be obsolete and the sensors we make for smartphones will be the future.

I think that Canon and NOT Sony from a camera perspective is putting out the best cameras to extend the life ILC's as a consumer product. Canon's $1500 entry price point for a camera that is more versatile between photo/video is better than Sony's $2200 price point for a primarily video centric camera. The only thing holding Canon back is their selection of lenses. If they were to pair the R8 with the lenses that Sony is CURRENTLY selling they would pull a lot of NEW people into the ILC market.

Sony_Nikon_Canon_Lens_Graph.png


The number of full-frame lenses for each mirrorless lens mount (not including adapted lenses, but including third-party options)

I get it that you like Canon (as I do) and want to say they are doing great because its the product you use. But objective reality is that BOTH of the companies are operating in a space that is dying. Saying Canon is doing better than Sony is irrelevant to me. This is not a Canon vs Sony debate for me this is a ILC are becoming extinct and here are things I think well help extend its life.

And again none of this even touches on AI. This will probably further compoung the issue as a large portion of photogroghers/videographers will be put out of work when AI can simply generate most of the content in seconds without the need for any photo/vidoe equipment.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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Your argument seems to be that companies are incapable of making mistakes and whatever decision they make must be the right decision because the company made it. I'm sure there were plenty of random people saying how they like streaming better but Blockbuster was the expert because it was their business right?

I think were talking past each other. Let me clarify to confirm were on the same page. I think BOTH Sony and Canon know the camera market is dying and are preparing their companies for that transition.
Your argument seems to be based on examples that are paradigm shifts for an industry. Smartphones were a paradigm shift from basic cell phones, the internet in your pocket, and Nokia suffered for it. Streaming media was a paradigm shift from physical media, instant delivery and access to content anywhere (not coincidentally, the demise of Blockbuster happened a few years after smartphones took off). Digital cameras were a paradigm shift from film, and that killed Kodak. Mirrorless ILCs are not a paradigm shift for the ILC industry, it's just removing the mirror from a DSLR – the cameras and lenses are fundamentally the same.

Now, the replacement of cameras with smartphones is a paradigm shift for the camera industry. We've seen that smartphones have essentially gutted the P&S market, and they've significantly eroded the ILC market as well (the whole ILC market, nothing to do with DSLR vs. MILC). The ILC market is adjusting, and while as you say Canon is doing a good job of bringing in new customers at the entry level, both Canon and Sony are placing an emphasis on higher-margin products (as is Nikon, but not very successfully).

Regarding 3rd party lenses, do keep in mind the history – Sony initially opened the mount because when they started with FF MILCs, they could not produce a broad portfolio of lenses fast enough, whereas with both EF-M and RF, Canon's adapters meant the full EF/EF-S catalog that took decades to build out could be used on the MILC bodies. Canon is the market leader, and has been for years. One thing that means is that their installed base is probably somewhere between 75-85% of ILCs currently in use. Though they've said they're open to licensing the mount on a case-by-case basis, there's really not much of a business case for it from Canon's perspective.

I get that you personally want cheaper 3rd party options for fast, constant-aperture zooms in the RF mount. Clearly, Canon has made a business decision that allowing that to happen is not in their best interest, at least for now. They never licensed the EF mount to Sigma/Tamron/Tokina/etc., those lenses are all reverse-engineered (which has been problematic in some cases). Also worth noting that Red cameras are available with a native RF mount, so evidently when Canon felt it was in their best interest to license the mount, they did.
 
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davidespinosa

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It sounds like @CJaurelius claim is:

A large number of customers will pick Sony + Sigma f/2.8 over Canon f/4-5.6.

And therefore Canon should offer a competitive product.

Certainly some customers will prefer Sony + Sigma over Canon.
There's at least one customer somewhere, for sure.
But I doubt there are enough such customers for Canon to care.
 
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Apr 25, 2011
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Because this is what I see when I talk with them. They want cool fast lenses.
Your anecdotal "them" (obviously, you know all the kids on the Internet), why aren't they buying the RF 35/1.8?

Again go watch videos comparing a kit lens mirroless to an iphone. In most cases the iphone is better which is why they aren't selling well to this segment. They have a better camera in their pocket for free
Is it any different from how it was with film SLRs and film P&S 25-30 years ago? As far as I remember, it wasn't.

Still, people were buying Canon SLRs with kit lenses then, people are buying Canon ILCs with kit lenses now. Maybe you don't know why, but Canon does.

Absolutely. Most of the people I know in this space like it because they want to work a job where they can do what the want when they want.
Most kids that want to be doctors won't become doctors. Most kids that want to be "content creators" won't be able do youtubing for living.

Still, medicine as a hobby doesn't constitute a viable market, I'm afraid. "Content creation" as a hobby does.

They don't have to go into an office. They spend their days shooting content and streaming themselves online playing video games.
"Streaming themselves online playing video games" requires a cheap fast FF lens?

How come?

Again that isn't a native lens. Their gear is part of the cool factor.
30 years ago "isn't a native lens" was a part of the cool factor. Why do you think it isn't now? Because Sony said so?

Isn't being able to use CPL or VND adapter "cool"?
Isn't being able to use tilt lenses (not available so far natively for any mirrorless mount, but available "the most natively" on Canon) "cool"?

But they do have a competitor Sony and smartphones.
Sony is not in the business of producing printers.

Sony, though, in the business of producing game consoles, where it behaves in the same way: artificially cheap consoles are funded by selling games to play on them.

We agree here. But instead of creating demand
Do you know the story of the Old Bull, Young Bull?

Kodak was "creating demand" for digital SLRs. Then Canon came to this market.
Sony was "creating demand" for APSc MILCs. Then Canon came to this market...

Canon might not be the best at "looking ahead" (no one is, to be frank. It's just that some happen to be lucky, while most happen to be not). But Canon is very good at looking around.

Canon is seeing demand in cheap light telephoto lenses, though, and is fulfilling it better than anyone else does. Your "content creators" don't see the use for content where their own heads are not in the frame? Sucks to be them; someone else will.

Not sure I follow.
You were talking about how you wanted to get a 15-35/2.8 IS lens twice as cheap as it was actually selling by reducing the costs of the materials keeping the optical specs intact, I said that it's impossible. Then you started to point on an absolutely different lens. Why?

No I'm asking them to produce lenses that people who use smartphones attractive to convert them to camera users instead of conceeding the market to smartphones.
No, that's what they are actually doing (for the lenses that are able to bring profit). You are asking something different.

Again, I've stated over and over it didn't need the same optical specs.
Lolwhat? Quoting verbatim:
Take the RF15-35mm F2.8 L IS USM for $2400. Why not make a lens with the same specs that is made of cheaper materials, a motor that isn't as smooth and quiet has a longer minimum focusing distance, less durability, not weather sealed and sell it for $1200 which would be $100 more than the Sigma version?

The Canon at $2400 is much better than the Sigma at $1100. But only for someone doing professional work that is going to be viewed optimally. If you are shooting content that is going to be seen on a 6" screen you don't need the best optical specs. You do need fast aperatures however to recreate the look people are going for.
Nah. Your Sigma lens costs about the same as RF 16/2.8, RF 24/1.8, and RF 35/1.8 combined, has slower aperture and worse macro capabilities... and don't tell me you are going to zoom while recording videos with shallow DoF. Also, your Sigma cannot be used with standard filters (RF 24/1.8 and 35/1.8 share the common 52mm filter thread, 16/2.8 uses 43mm filters).

Besides, if you really want a 14-24/2.8 Sigma, you can get the older one in EF mount, including the adapter, for the same price as the new one withot an adapter. But if you are really short on the money, obviously buying primes one by one as needed is a better choice, too.

Maybe Canon does know the market better than you do? What do you think?

Again, if this is true then Canon is essentially riping you off. Because Sigma can make the same lense more less than half the cost.
It cannot. The lens that Sigma actually makes has shorter zoom range (doesn't include very useful 35mm), a bulbous front element, and lacks IS.
 
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Apr 25, 2011
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Your argument seems to be based on examples that are paradigm shifts for an industry. Smartphones were a paradigm shift from basic cell phones, the internet in your pocket, and Nokia suffered for it.
The funny thing that Nokia has started this paradigm shift, producing and promoting the first smartphones (I owned one, Nokia 5500 Sport, bought before the first iPhone came to the market).
 
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Your argument seems to be based on examples that are paradigm shifts for an industry. Smartphones were a paradigm shift from basic cell phones, the internet in your pocket, and Nokia suffered for it. Streaming media was a paradigm shift from physical media, instant delivery and access to content anywhere (not coincidentally, the demise of Blockbuster happened a few years after smartphones took off). Digital cameras were a paradigm shift from film, and that killed Kodak. Mirrorless ILCs are not a paradigm shift for the ILC industry, it's just removing the mirror from a DSLR – the cameras and lenses are fundamentally the same.

Now, the replacement of cameras with smartphones is a paradigm shift for the camera industry. We've seen that smartphones have essentially gutted the P&S market, and they've significantly eroded the ILC market as well (the whole ILC market, nothing to do with DSLR vs. MILC). The ILC market is adjusting, and while as you say Canon is doing a good job of bringing in new customers at the entry level, both Canon and Sony are placing an emphasis on higher-margin products (as is Nikon, but not very successfully).
Agreed. They both are going after the high end customer. Canon had a $1000 full frame and now they've replaced that with a $1500 full frame. Follow this to the logical conclusion. The cameras are getting better slowly and the smartphones are getting better quickly. If they continue in this direction the next time they'll ditch the R8 and the cheapest camera will be the newest version of the R6ii at $2500+. Then a few years later as the smartphones get even better they'll ditch the R6ii as the base model and the new version of the R5 will be the cheapest camera at $3500. And on and on until Canon only sells $10,000 cameras to industry profesionals.

I'm arguing if they made the market fashionable and appealed to the growth segment (creators) they could convince them that to adopt their products and build brand loyalty the way the people here defend Canon on this forum. In 20 years my kids probably will never of even heard of Canon.

Regarding 3rd party lenses, do keep in mind the history – Sony initially opened the mount because when they started with FF MILCs, they could not produce a broad portfolio of lenses fast enough, whereas with both EF-M and RF, Canon's adapters meant the full EF/EF-S catalog that took decades to build out could be used on the MILC bodies. Canon is the market leader, and has been for years. One thing that means is that their installed base is probably somewhere between 75-85% of ILCs currently in use. Though they've said they're open to licensing the mount on a case-by-case basis, there's really not much of a business case for it from Canon's perspective.
That's completely their perogative but again they are continually make less and less money on ILC's. At least Sony is transitioning to the new world by making sensors for the cameras that are replacing the ILC's. You like Canon and they're making a business decision to move away from the product you like. They are actively telling you they want to pursue things other than cameras.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quot...esult, we recorded,13.6% to 244.0 billion yen.

Even though sales of cameras and printers declined, our new businesses, including medical and network cameras, grew steadily, and their aggregate sales exceeded 1,000 billion yen. Such significant progress in the transformation of our business portfolio helped consolidated net sales surpass the 4,000 billion yen mark for the first time in five years.

I get that you personally want cheaper 3rd party options for fast, constant-aperture zooms in the RF mount. Clearly, Canon has made a business decision that allowing that to happen is not in their best interest, at least for now. They never licensed the EF mount to Sigma/Tamron/Tokina/etc., those lenses are all reverse-engineered (which has been problematic in some cases). Also worth noting that Red cameras are available with a native RF mount, so evidently when Canon felt it was in their best interest to license the mount, they did.

I would prefer if Canon wanted to fight for the futre of video/photo market by bringing products to the market that the younger and future people want. Canon is the market leader so they have done a good job at selling to the old market that is decreasing. But why I get it, why should Canon care about the future of ILC's when they already have other markets in their portfolios to replace it.
 
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Jul 21, 2010
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I would prefer if Canon wanted to fight for the futre of video/photo market by bringing products to the market that the younger and future people want.
They are, they’re just not bringing the products to market that you personally think they should. Your perseveration on the belief that you understand the camera market better than Canon is rather sad.

Regardless, this line of discussion has become pointless. I’m out.
 
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hey’re just not bringing the products to market that you personally think they should. Your perseveration on the belief that you understand the camera market better than Canon is rather sad.

Regardless, this line of discussion has become pointless. I’m out.
They may understand it better than me. The answer may be that no matter what they do ILC's are going to die and their way is the best way to make the most money before it does.
 
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AlanF

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They may understand it better than me. The answer may be that no matter what they do ILC's are going to die and their way is the best way to make the most money before it does.
The same fate applies to all of us but as individuals we balance making money, doing good and having fun more so than corporations.
 
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tron

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I do not believe that ILCs are going to die anytime soon. Their IQ and capabilities in general are immensely higher than the stupid cameras of mobile phones. For example, for the price I would get a top phone (which I do not need and I would get it only for it's camera) I got a R7 instead. I matched it with 100-400 and I got a nice light and rather small birding combo that I can take with me almost everywhere.
 
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I do not believe that ILCs are going to die anytime soon. Their IQ and capabilities in general are immensely higher than the stupid cameras of mobile phones. For example, for the price I would get a top phone (which I do not need and I would get it only for it's camera) I got a R7 instead. I matched it with 100-400 and I got a nice light and rather small birding combo that I can take with me almost everywhere.

I don't think this is fair assumption for most people. A basic phone like the iphone 14 is $800 whereas the iphone pro max is $1100. So for most people they're only paying $400 more. And most people are trading in their old phone, getting some deal and paying monthly. So to most people the higher end phone is costing them an additonal $10 a month.

I think the next couple years will be a big indicator. If units sold continues to decrease as projected I think they'll continue their strategy of focusing more on high end cameras to get the most profit out of the reduced sales and differentiate from the smartphones. And as the quality continually increase on smartphones the options will become use a smartphone that can produce the quality of a $2500 (today's dollars) camera vs buying a $3500 ILC.

For people in niche professions and hobbies I think there will be a need for ILC's but were talking people such as yourself who specifically want to take pictures of birds for example. I doubt smartphones are ever going to target the bidring hobbyist. But as a consumer product carried in say a BestBuy I doubt they'll be here a decade from now.
 
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Jan 27, 2020
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Could you point me in the direction of what those resonably priced zoom lens are, expecially on the wide side. This to me seems to be their biggest weakness.

I orginally shot on Nikon and had affordable but decent Tamron and Sigma lenses. The R8 seems enticing enough for me to jump back in with Canon but $2,400 for a 2.8 wide angle zoom vs $800 - $1000 from a competitor almost makes the price of the camera irrelevant at that point.
Not 2.8, but the 14-35mm f/4 L is an excellent lens at around $1,250 refurbished and $1,350 new. I would consider that reasonably priced for a pro quality lens. Just curious as to why you need f/2.8 for a wide angle zoom.
 
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davidespinosa

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@Czardoom

I bet @CJaurelius will say that he doesn't absolutely need f/2.8, but since he can afford the Sigma version, now he wants it. When comparing Sigma to Canon, we have two choices:

(1) We can fix the price and vary the aperture, or
(2) We can fix the aperture and vary the price.

Let's try option (2). We'll compare f/2.8 lenses across Sigma and Canon and see how the price varies:

Wide-angle zooms:

Sigma 14-24mm f/2.8 DG HSM Art Lens for Canon EF
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1390808-REG/sigma_212954_14_24mm_f_2_8_dg_hsm.html
$1219

Canon EF 16-35mm f/2.8L III USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1274708-REG/canon_ef_16_35mm_f_2_8l_iii.html
$1999 = 64% more than Sigma

Canon RF 15-35mm f/2.8 L IS USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1502499-REG/canon_3682c002_rf_15_35mm_f_2_8l_is.html
$2399 = 97% more than Sigma

Mid-focal-length zooms:

Sigma 24-70mm f/2.8 DG OS HSM Art Lens for Canon EF
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1321309-REG/sigma_24_70mm_f_2_8_dg_os.html
$1179

Canon EF 24-70mm f/2.8L II USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/843008-USA/Canon_5175B002_EF_24_70mm_f_2_8L_II.html
$1699 = 44% more than Sigma

Canon RF 24-70mm f/2.8 L IS USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1502500-REG/canon_3680c002_rf_24_70mm_f_2_8l_is.html
$2399 = 103% more than Sigma

Telephoto zooms:

Sigma 70-200mm f/2.8 DG OS HSM Lens for Canon EF
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1436297-REG/sigma_70_200mm_f_2_8_dg_is.html
$1399

Canon EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS III USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1414599-REG/canon_3044c002_ef_70_200mm_f_2_8l_is.html
$1999 = 43% more than Sigma

Canon RF 70-200mm f/2.8 L IS USM Lens
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1510031-REG/canon_rf_70_200mm_f_2_8l_is.html
$2799 = 100% more than Sigma
 
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SteveC

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That's not "a basic phone". Even with Apple tax, you can get a new phone for less.
I paid US $179 (with no contractual commitment) for a Samsung A12. It's still a smartphone. But for a smartphone it is pretty basic.

Try to tell me an $800 phone is basic? Well, if it truly is basic Apple is gouging people.
 
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@Czardoom

I bet @CJaurelius will say that he doesn't absolutely need f/2.8, but since he can afford the Sigma version, now he wants it. When comparing Sigma to Canon, we have two choices:
It's a combination of the two. In many cases the f2.8 is needed. For people shooting content for social media that content is being viewed on phones. People aren't looking at youtube on 80" tv's or blowing their pictures up for billboards. Therefore the quality that most people talk about with the expensive canon glass is irrelevant. HOWEVER, separation between the subject and background gives the look of a higher quality image/video and obvoiusly wider aperatures do this better. This is why iPhones have a portrait/cinematic mode to fake this.

Can you get this effect without the widest aperatures? Sure. But you have to manipulate the distance between the camera, subject and background. Well if you are shooting social medial content normally you don't have these options. Therefore the easiest/most versatile way to get this look to your photos/vidoes is to have a wide angle lens with a wide aperature.
 
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That's not "a basic phone". Even with Apple tax, you can get a new phone for less.

I paid US $179 (with no contractual commitment) for a Samsung A12. It's still a smartphone. But for a smartphone it is pretty basic.

Try to tell me an $800 phone is basic? Well, if it truly is basic Apple is gouging people.

The average iphone was up to $873 in 2021. 84 MILLION iphones were sold in the US in 2022. I'll correct myself. An "average" smartphone cost $800.

And I'm talking about Millenials and Gen Zers that are shooting content for social media. I've never met someone who has a Samsung A12 in my entire life. OR someone who buys an ILC just to shoot pictures of birds.

And that isn't meant in a disrespectful way. I''m just highlighting that the people here seem to be in pretty niche categories. Which I guess makes sense and the reason why camera sales are decreasing.

I'm talking about ways to increase ILC sales to the same group of 84 million people buying iphones every 2 years and people here think focusing on hobbyies that are dying out are the future just because its a hobby they like.

Again in a world where more people are taking more photos/videos than ever before camera makers are selling less and less cameras.
 
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The average iphone was up to $873 in 2021. 84 MILLION iphones were sold in the US in 2022. I'll correct myself. An "average" smartphone cost $800.
An average smartphone costs $322.

Also, I've just returned from a couple days vacation in Venice. The most represented ILC type and brand I've spotted there were Canon Rebel SLRs. There were also some Nikons. but I don't know their lineup. I have also spotted one Sony and one Olympus ILC.

And I'm talking about Millenials and Gen Zers that are shooting content for social media. I've never met someone who has a Samsung A12 in my entire life. OR someone who buys an ILC just to shoot pictures of birds.
Which means that your anecdotal evidence is not a reliable representation of Canon's market.

I'm talking about ways to increase ILC sales to the same group of 84 million people buying iphones every 2 years and people here think focusing on hobbyies that are dying out are the future just because its a hobby they like.
What makes you think they are a viable market for non-kit lenses?

I'd say if they were a viable market, they would spend more money on lenses and less money on phones.
 
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