The State of the Canon Full Frame Mirrorless Development

[CanonGrunt]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

Oh goody! Than I can score some of the good stuff cheap and use them on my cinema cameras.


But seriously, I use L lenses on my M5 with the canon EF - EFM adaptor all the time, and the results are phenomenal, so if other people want to sell their glass cheap when the 'Canopocolypse" comes I welcome the chaos.

 

[KeithBreazeal]

If you going to go in- go in with a big splash. Think outside the box. Make it one of those OMG moments.
In all honesty, I would be happy with a mirrorless version of the 5D Mark IV.
Whatever it is, I'm 100% sure it will use existing EF lenses.

 

[scyrene]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

A new mount doesn't mean EF is dead so long as they continue to release EF DSLRs. Also, until and unless the new mount provides all the lens types that EF currently does (and I can't see it happening) then the more specialist lenses will still be as relevant as ever.

 

[scyrene]

Well, I do know one final specification for a fact: It will cost a few months rent.

Depends where you live!

 

[ahsanford]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

Your choice on answering your own question:

A) Not as fast as the plummeting price of A7 bodies that are constantly being obsoleted.

B) No, because EF is still moving ahead full steam after FF mirrorless comes out (even if FF mirrorless has a new mount).

C) No, because Canon lenses hold resale values brilliantly.

D) All of the above.

- A

P.S. The fact that folks can't wrap their head around (B) above is crazypants territory.

 

[Loswr]

B) No, because EF is still moving ahead full steam after FF mirrorless comes out (even if FF mirrorless has a new mount).

P.S. The fact that folks can't wrap their head around (B) above is crazypants territory.

B is clearly wrong because AvTvM and the millions of people he claims his personal opinion represents will never buy another EF lens after the new mount comes out.

 

[unfocused]

I just want to know if it's the EF mount or not. Because as soon as they announce EF is dead, it'll be the Canopolypse. Can you imagine the value of everyone's gear dropping overnight?

So, what lenses do you think people will be using on the 1Dx III and 5D V?

 

[Talys]

There are 3 groups of potential customers for a FF MILC from Canon:

1. DSLR users who are happy with the DSLR form factor, but are interested in some features offered by EVF.

2. DSLR users who are unhappy with the DSLR form factor, but have decided to wait for Canon to produce something, or simply don't like Sony as a company to deal with.

3. Sony users who aren't happy with their Sony FF mirrorless, for whatever reason.


The problem is, these groups don't necessarily want the same camera. I think it's impossible to make them all happy with 1 camera, or, perhaps, even 1 mount.

I think that #1 is a large and important group, and is the one that is size-insensitive.

I believe that #2 is a relatively smaller, and shrinking, group. A lot of them have simply gone to Sony already, and more will by the time that Canon releases some FF MILC. But these folks are likely very portability-sensitive.

With respect to unhappy Sony users, it may be hard to believe reading the internet, but they certainly exist. The Sony camera is far from perfect, and for a variety of reasons, there will be some people who stick with it because despite the shortcomings, they still prefer it to a Canon DSLR; but they'd switch back, if some of the pain points are addressed.

 

[nchoh]

Just for the fun of it, this is what I think will happen.

Canon will release the FF mirrorless with a new mount. Why? Because Canon works on segmentation. This makes sense on many levels;

They will deprecate the EF-S mount- they will stop developing EF-S lenses and they will only continue the 7D, Rebel, SL lines if it makes sense. Reason? EF-M is the new APS-C representative.

The new mount - let's call it EF-X here - will co-exist with the EF. Canon will initially focus on enthusiasts, fashion and wedding photographers, where the photographer benefits the most from being able to see what the picture is going to look like without chimping.
Professionals who use the 1DX will be expected to stay there. Those who want to use the new camera, for greater FPS will have to use the adapter. Likely lenses for the new camera will be 24-70, 50 and 85mm. 70-200 will come later.

I don't think that they intend to develop a new sensor. They will use either the 5D or 5DSR sensor.

 

[AuroraChaserDoug]

I'm not worried about canon torpedoing EOS for a mirrorless mount for FF. Unlike Sony that considers every purchase a consumable that will soon be if not already obsolete, Canon is methodical about creating and maintaining a system for its customers. Take the EOS-M that started as a total failure on most counts. It's developed into a useable system that I'm considering for casual use. Even with a new mount, "EOS-M FF" would require 100 megapixel sensors before anyone would upgrade their EOS L glass for EOS-M FF L glass.

I'm looking forward to what transpires in this FF mirrorless development story.

 

[woodman411]

I think there are a few models out there.

A pro APS-C with EF-M to EF adapter.
A pro APS-C with EF mount.
A pro full-frame with EF-M to EF adapter.
A pro full-frame with EF mount.

I am hoping for Canon to give us Rebel sized FF similar to SL series. Cheap and small FF offering for less than $1000 with EF mount.

Eventually probably, the question is, which order will they come out, and with what specs. Eventually we'll probably see something like this:

6D-M: emphasis on small size and cost
5D-M: larger than 6D-M, all-rounder with dual-card slots
1D-M: largest body, emphasis on performance
5DS-M: emphasis on resolution

I think the consensus is that we'll see a 6D-M-like body first.

 

[ahsanford]

Eventually probably, the question is, which order will they come out, and with what specs. Eventually we'll probably see something like this:

6D-M: emphasis on small size and cost
5D-M: larger than 6D-M, all-rounder with dual-card slots
1D-M: largest body, emphasis on performance
5DS-M: emphasis on resolution

I think the consensus is that we'll see a 6D-M-like body first.

Not impossible. 1-series would be dead last, surely.

Also, don't be surprised if a video-prioritized model surfaces, and I don't just mean another body with a low res / high ISO sensor. It could be a completely different form factor or design.

- A

 

[Loswr]

Take the EOS-M that started as a total failure on most counts.

Well, except that the original EOS M was the #2 best-selling MILC model in Japan (the largest geographical market for MILCs) the year after its launch, beating out all models from Olympus and Panasonic, and bested only by an older (and heavily discounted) Sony NEX model. But yeah, except for being a hugely popular domestic product that started Canon on the path to their current position as #2 in global MILC sales, it was a total failure.

 

[ahsanford]

Take the EOS-M that started as a total failure on most counts.

Well, except that the original EOS M was the #2 best-selling MILC model in Japan (the largest geographical market for MILCs) the year after its launch, beating out all models from Olympus and Panasonic, and bested only by an older (and heavily discounted) Sony NEX model. But yeah, except for being a hugely popular domestic product that started Canon on the path to their current position as #2 in global MILC sales, it was a total failure.

+1 to Neuro.

Some folks see this as Canon's last chance, but I see it as a super profitable land-grab. People's exhibit A is the first EOS M. Lest we forget, EOS M lacked:

• Any meaningful ergonomics, grip, etc.
• High quality + fast lenses (beyond the 22mm f/2)
• A viewfinder
• A jillion AF points
• Autofocusing speed that could confirm lock before next Tuesday
• Tilty-flippy screen
• Dual slots
• IBIS
• DPAF
• 4K
• Eye AF
• Fast burst rate

...and it sold just fine, thankyouverymuch.

It had lovely Canon color, Canon quality, Canon IQ, and a bridge to seamless and native EF lens use. I'm pretty damn bullish on Canon FF mirrorless, because it will have way more going for it than just color, quality, IQ and EF lenses.

- A

 

[Don Haines]

I think there are a few models out there.

A pro APS-C with EF-M to EF adapter.
A pro APS-C with EF mount.
A pro full-frame with EF-M to EF adapter.
A pro full-frame with EF mount.

I am hoping for Canon to give us Rebel sized FF similar to SL series. Cheap and small FF offering for less than $1000 with EF mount.

Eventually probably, the question is, which order will they come out, and with what specs. Eventually we'll probably see something like this:

6D-M: emphasis on small size and cost
5D-M: larger than 6D-M, all-rounder with dual-card slots
1D-M: largest body, emphasis on performance
5DS-M: emphasis on resolution

I think the consensus is that we'll see a 6D-M-like body first.

I can see one sized like the SL-1 as the intro model.....

 

[AvTvM]

B is clearly wrong because AvTvM and the millions of people he claims his personal opinion represents will never buy another EF lens after the new mount comes out.

absolutely correct. I won't be selling my existing EF glass immediately but buy new native FF mirrorless lenses over an extended period of time ... and definitely never again buy another mirrorslapper-optimized EF lens.

And yes, not all, but millions and millions Canon owners will handle things exactly the same way.

It will be an excellent business decision for Canon. They'll be selling many more (new native FF mirrorless) lenses for many years to come than they would be selling not-optimal-for mirrorless EF glass.

EF lens development will dry out pretty soon along with DSLRs if the new Canon mirrorless system turns out to be good. If not, it will be total Canaggedon.

 

[AvTvM]

@ CR guys: please do yourself and us all a favor and don't continue to use that fake Canon MILC image again. It is impossible to attach an EF lens to a MILC in the way implied by that image. And it confuses many folks who seem to take the image "for real" ... especially those hoping for Canon MILCs with "native" EF mount. Please make up a new mock-up image showing the "nozzle/pig's snout" such a camera would need to physically allow use of EF lenses with 44 mm FFD.

 

[ahsanford]

@ CR guys: please do yourself and us all a favor and don't continue to use that fake Canon MILC image again. It is impossible to attach an EF lens to a MILC in the way implied by that image. And it confuses many folks who seem to take the image "for real" ... especially those hoping for Canon MILCs with "native" EF mount. Please make up a new mock-up image showing the "nozzle/pig's snout" such a camera would need to physically allow use of EF lenses with 44 mm FFD.

Done. Good looking out -- you're right, it looks a lot better now.

- A

 

[[email protected]]

Mount logic

Canon’s observable behavior in lens development suggests that it is less likely to introduce a new mount system with the full frame mirrorless.

The two key pieces of evidence:
1) Canon’s capacity to develop and release new or redesigned lenses has been wanting, despite the CEO having publicly stated that he wished to increase the velocity of development two years ago. Canon actually did better in the last 12 months versus years past, but it is still not as prolific as a couple of the third party lens manufacturers. This indicates a likely maximum capacity of development of roughly 5-6 major lens releases per year. To produce a set of new lenses of the main three zooms, the main 8 primes, at least a couple of the superteles, that would take 5 years at a minimum while continuing to support the EF mount at half the pace it is now.

2) The M mount has been wielded by Canon in an interesting - perhaps even intelligent - way. Instead of trying to replicate its line-up in with a whole new suit of M lenses, they instead chose to make some lenses that could exploit the APS-C sensor and the new mount to get some very big size reductions. And for everything else, it just relied on the adapter, which - to Canon’s credit - has worked better than any other adapter in adapter history. It’s like it’s not there.

If Canon were to try the same strategy with the new mirrorless, the size advantages for the lenses would be much less due to the full frame sensor, thus there isn’t much of an advantage to a new mount. The obvious evolution would be to have EF be the full frame mount and M be the APS-C version, much like we have EF/EF-S now.

 

[tmroper]

A viewfinder that could be adjusted for those awkward low shots would be a godsend.

The problem with that for a stills camera is, it doesn't help much for portrait orientation, which some of us shoot in a lot. A flip-out screen can kind of work in portrait orientation, but it's not ideal. So if we're talking about some kind of completely new form factor, I hope this gets factored in. Maybe like, a Mamiya RZ67 style rotating "back" (or in this case, sensor)?