What's Not Coming in 2018?

[bernie_king]

I was also reading another thread here about 7Dmarkii and the last posts were from almost two years ago (May 2016). People back then were holding off on purchase because the 7Dmarkiii release was imminent! I wonder if they are still waiting?

Well... Yes! I own a 7D Mark II and it's for sale. But there seems to be no interest for it. People prefer to invest money in a camera that is future proof. Or, because fits their budget.
Most o people know about Canon-Nikon war... Maybe it doesn't matter what better features competition will add as long these two are the best. If everybody will do like me... Because there's a better system, nobody cold sell their used gear. If Canon doesn't come very soon with something to compete with Sony as a perfect hybrid camera (photo/video) it's very likely that I'll have two systems. Just because Canon is hard to sell.

I just sold mine a couple of months ago. Literally sold in 9 hours on FredMiranda. I didn't sell cheap either.

 

[Talys]

I was also reading another thread here about 7Dmarkii and the last posts were from almost two years ago (May 2016). People back then were holding off on purchase because the 7Dmarkiii release was imminent! I wonder if they are still waiting?

Well... Yes! I own a 7D Mark II and it's for sale. But there seems to be no interest for it. People prefer to invest money in a camera that is future proof. Or, because fits their budget.
Most o people know about Canon-Nikon war... Maybe it doesn't matter what better features competition will add as long these two are the best. If everybody will do like me... Because there's a better system, nobody cold sell their used gear. If Canon doesn't come very soon with something to compete with Sony as a perfect hybrid camera (photo/video) it's very likely that I'll have two systems. Just because Canon is hard to sell.

I just sold mine a couple of months ago. Literally sold in 9 hours on FredMiranda. I didn't sell cheap either.

Indeed, Canon is a very easy system to sell.

Sony FE lenses are easy to sell, and command a very respectable sale price, because supply of used FE lenses is very limited compared to demand. Their APSC lenses have seem to hang around forever. Sony bodies are a dog's breakfast if they aren't the current model. Even relatively new bodies like A7R2 that the Internet loved not so long ago are hard to flog, even at giveaway prices. I see mint condition ones hang around forever, even when the price goes pretty low.

My suggestion if you're buying a Sony body is that if you're buying a latest-and-greatest, plan on just holding onto it.

 

[Deleted member 379512]

In a review by Dustin Abbott (I think for 80D) he made an interesting observation. (It is his opinion but it may be true). He said while other manufacturers are quicker to come out with new features, Canon has the features more refined so that they work better when they do come out.

I tend to agree on a number of points here, but I see parts where canon haven't done this as well in the later releases, the 5dmk4 4k limitations could be considered one, as an example. On the other side, it's good to see them adding in newer features like the dual pixel raw; not that I feel this is a effective as advertised initially but that they're trying something new overall.

I tend to sit myself on the side where I prefer having the features there where possible, even if they don't work in all situations, rather than just not having the option at all. I'm hoping canon will either throw everything in, including the kitchen sink, even if there are caveats. At the moment, it seems a little that they're kinda doing both to a degree, having some features with limitations etc, and also not putting all they can in a camera to meet the competition.

 

[Ozarker]

On this news, 10 people who were counting on an upgrade to improve their photography skills will switch to Sony. Well, not really. 9 will just threaten to switch. The other 1 will club himself to death with a 70-200 after he gets lost in Sony's menu system on a rainy day with his "weather sealed" miracle machine.

 

[Talys]

In a review by Dustin Abbott (I think for 80D) he made an interesting observation. (It is his opinion but it may be true). He said while other manufacturers are quicker to come out with new features, Canon has the features more refined so that they work better when they do come out.

I tend to agree on a number of points here, but I see parts where canon haven't done this as well in the later releases, the 5dmk4 4k limitations could be considered one, as an example. On the other side, it's good to see them adding in newer features like the dual pixel raw; not that I feel this is a effective as advertised initially but that they're trying something new overall.

I tend to sit myself on the side where I prefer having the features there where possible, even if they don't work in all situations, rather than just not having the option at all. I'm hoping canon will either throw everything in, including the kitchen sink, even if there are caveats. At the moment, it seems a little that they're kinda doing both to a degree, having some features with limitations etc, and also not putting all they can in a camera to meet the competition.

There is a right and wrong way to do this.

I'm ok with features that are thrown in that have caveats, as long as they can be totally disabled and they don't get in the way of photography.

I am not ok with half-baked features that complicate basic functionality, or where there isn't a way to get to clean, straight-forward shooting.

At the core of it, I want modes where I can have the camera resolve one of aperture/shutter/ISO for exposure, and I want to be able to point at something and have the camera autofocus where I tell it to with good precision and quickly. If the camera can't do that very efficiently, the rest is just turns into gimmicky stuff that gets in the way.

The other thing is, at the end of the day, that's all I need. I'm more than happy to figure out the rest of it myself, through a blend of trial, error, and experience. For me, at least, whether a shot is poor or amazing has nothing to do with WYSIWYG or zebras or whatever tools to help me take a some technically ok shot. It usually has to do with light and shadows and my subject -- and mostly, whether I had a good idea or a bad one. And sometimes, I just fluke out!

For "generalist" photography that Sonys are well-liked for, with few exceptions, a lot of stuff like what gear I'm using matters nearly not at all. Where gear matters the most for me is having the right lens for the right job, and having a good quality lens for that purpose.

 

[davidcl0nel]

The 1DX3, 5D5, 5DSR2 and 7D3 will come in mid to end 2019, to get the upcoming Olympics.

 

[Deleted member 374702]

From nikonrumors:
"At least two high-end Nikon cameras and at least two lenses expected by the end of 2018".
"Nikon is developing a new mirrorless camera at a “rapid pace”, getting close to the official announcement".

From canonrumors: "What's not coming in 2018"

Because, you see, Canon are so ahead... no need to hurry.

 

[jolyonralph]

The 1DX3, 5D5, 5DSR2 and 7D3 will come in mid to end 2019, to get the upcoming Olympics.

The 1D timeline does match the Olympics now, so yes, expect launch in early 2020.

I wouldn't expect to see a 5D mark V before 2021 though.

A 7D Mark III is inevitably before the end of next year, and I still believe we'll see that announced at Photokina - depending on whether Canon are ready to announce their mirrorless or not. We'll see one or the other, probably not both.

The fate of the 5DSR depends on what their mirrorless plans are. It may end up being the mirrorless replaces the 5DSR II

 

[100]

From nikonrumors:
"At least two high-end Nikon cameras and at least two lenses expected by the end of 2018".
"Nikon is developing a new mirrorless camera at a “rapid pace”, getting close to the official announcement".

From canonrumors: "What's not coming in 2018"

Because, you see, Canon are so ahead... no need to hurry.

There are rumors and there are facts.
These are the facts:
No Nikon D5s and D500s, they were due in January this year but never came.
Nikon DL (1” compact) never made it to the consumer.
Nikon 1 (1” ILC) is dead, and Nikon has no DX (APS-C) mirrorless solution.
Nikon is losing market share in a declining market despite a camera like the D850 which outperforms both the Canon 5DIV and 5DSr.

I’d like to see Canon lose some market share. That will push them more, but it hasn’t happened in over a decade…

 

[maxfactor9933]

From nikonrumors:
"At least two high-end Nikon cameras and at least two lenses expected by the end of 2018".
"Nikon is developing a new mirrorless camera at a “rapid pace”, getting close to the official announcement".

From canonrumors: "What's not coming in 2018"

Because, you see, Canon are so ahead... no need to hurry.

how did u measured its pace? nothing confirmed yet, also nikon selling it d850 like hot cake. not gonna cannibalize its market by a mirrorless anytime soon

 

[jolyonralph]

also nikon selling it d850 like hot cake. not gonna cannibalize its market by a mirrorless anytime soon

If they can make more profit on a new mirrorless than they can on the d850 then that won't be an issue. Even if they don't they'll calculate the % they'll lose by cannibalization vs the extra profit from having a camera in a different niche.

 

[Deleted member 379512]

In a review by Dustin Abbott (I think for 80D) he made an interesting observation. (It is his opinion but it may be true). He said while other manufacturers are quicker to come out with new features, Canon has the features more refined so that they work better when they do come out.

I tend to agree on a number of points here, but I see parts where canon haven't done this as well in the later releases, the 5dmk4 4k limitations could be considered one, as an example. On the other side, it's good to see them adding in newer features like the dual pixel raw; not that I feel this is a effective as advertised initially but that they're trying something new overall.

I tend to sit myself on the side where I prefer having the features there where possible, even if they don't work in all situations, rather than just not having the option at all. I'm hoping canon will either throw everything in, including the kitchen sink, even if there are caveats. At the moment, it seems a little that they're kinda doing both to a degree, having some features with limitations etc, and also not putting all they can in a camera to meet the competition.

There is a right and wrong way to do this.

I'm ok with features that are thrown in that have caveats, as long as they can be totally disabled and they don't get in the way of photography.

I am not ok with half-baked features that complicate basic functionality, or where there isn't a way to get to clean, straight-forward shooting.

At the core of it, I want modes where I can have the camera resolve one of aperture/shutter/ISO for exposure, and I want to be able to point at something and have the camera autofocus where I tell it to with good precision and quickly. If the camera can't do that very efficiently, the rest is just turns into gimmicky stuff that gets in the way.

The other thing is, at the end of the day, that's all I need. I'm more than happy to figure out the rest of it myself, through a blend of trial, error, and experience. For me, at least, whether a shot is poor or amazing has nothing to do with WYSIWYG or zebras or whatever tools to help me take a some technically ok shot. It usually has to do with light and shadows and my subject -- and mostly, whether I had a good idea or a bad one. And sometimes, I just fluke out!

For "generalist" photography that Sonys are well-liked for, with few exceptions, a lot of stuff like what gear I'm using matters nearly not at all. Where gear matters the most for me is having the right lens for the right job, and having a good quality lens for that purpose.

I completely agree with that sentiment; most cameras nowadays are going to be able to do many tasks without issue as long as the photographer knows what they're wanting. Having the extra features can often help with the more niche/less common shooting types though, and it's the ease of use that can be had with some of these things that has me hoping canon will also add these in - zebras are a great one, for both video and timelapse (which I play around with), it's very useful to monitor the exposure via this and the metering rather than just the metering. Not something that everyone will want all the time no, but it's having the option to turn it on/off as suits.

A good example of what I was meaning above is something like the 10 fps on the latest sony's; while it allows for a 8fps with a live view finder, the 10 fps has the slideshow setting. Overall though, I'm happier they included the 10 fps (although it would have been better advertised as a true 8 fps with a 10 fps 'option'), as they also give the option for the 8 fps; it would have been a fine camera at just 8 fps but the option of slightly higher means I have that option if I ever need. It might be just me, but I would have liked to have seen a higher fps on the 5dmk4, even if they had gone with a similar set up (blacked out view finder at 10 fps, normal with the current 7fps for example)

I'm not meaning that without the extra features that people will take bad shots or not be able to get them, but they can make things easier/more enjoyable if the option of using them is there. I don't think any manufacturer has all the options/features right yet, each have their pros and cons in different areas, but having more features in one camera is one of the big ones where I think canon could improve

 

[BillB]

It might be just me, but I would have liked to have seen a higher fps on the 5dmk4, even if they had gone with a similar set up (blacked out view finder at 10 fps, normal with the current 7fps for example)

[/quote]

The 5DIV has a redesigned mirror flipping mechanism intended to reduce vibration and noise, and the goal of reducing vibration and noise may have had a limiting effect on max fps. As has often been pointed out, Canon could have reduced vibration and noise by designing the 5DIV as a mirrorless camera, but they didn't do so. They could also have increased fps by using a blackout viewfinder design, but no doubt there would be people complaining about that if they had done so.

 

[Talys]

It might be just me, but I would have liked to have seen a higher fps on the 5dmk4, even if they had gone with a similar set up (blacked out view finder at 10 fps, normal with the current 7fps for example)

The 5DIV has a redesigned mirror flipping mechanism intended to reduce vibration and noise, and the goal of reducing vibration and noise may have had a limiting effect on max fps. As has often been pointed out, Canon could have reduced vibration and noise by designing the 5DIV as a mirrorless camera, but they didn't do so. They could also have increased fps by using a blackout viewfinder design, but no doubt there would be people complaining about that if they had done so.

Like many other people, I think 1 more fps on the 5DIV would have been nice, though from my perspective, mostly for product positioning rather than that I care about 6 or 7 or 8 fps. They're all pretty blazing fast.

On the Sony, I simply never used the 10fps option (because I wanted to see what I was shooting). So yes, that's a good example of something that doesn't get in the way, because you can just set it to 8fps. But in reality, it's "just" an 8fps camera to me.

On the 5DIV, if they had made it a mirrorless, it would still have blackouts due to the rolling shutter (no different than the A7). But like the mirror actuation, this is something that people who take a lot of sports/action/wildlife photography have gotten pretty accustomed to. Would they prefer it without any interruption to the image? Sure, why not? But it might not be a good tradeoff to having the optical image; or it might be a very poor tradeoff for the loss of a dedicated PDAF sensor.

 

[3kramd5]

On the 5DIV, if they had made it a mirrorless, it would still have blackouts due to the rolling shutter (no different than the A7)

It’s not that it rolls. A global shutter would also have blackout without sufficiently high readout speeds. On the flip side, Sony’s A9 doesn’t blackout and its shutter rolls (well, the modern curtain style anyway), but it reads fast enough to not notice.

 

[Talys]

On the 5DIV, if they had made it a mirrorless, it would still have blackouts due to the rolling shutter (no different than the A7)

It’s not that it rolls. A global shutter would also have blackout without sufficiently high readout speeds. On the flip side, Sony’s A9 doesn’t blackout and its shutter rolls (well, the modern curtain style anyway), but it reads fast enough to not notice.

Sure, but as far as we know, global shutters as a function of price and performance are not there yet for consumer cameras. It's not a realistic choice for the 5DIV's release in 2016, and probably remains an unrealistic option for 2019 cameras.

My bigger issue (because I enjoy birding) is with the performance of on-sensor autofocus versus dedicated AF sensor. The latter is provably faster on every camera that has both, and there are no mirrorless cameras that can autofocus as quickly as the fastest DSLRs.

 

[3kramd5]

On the 5DIV, if they had made it a mirrorless, it would still have blackouts due to the rolling shutter (no different than the A7)

It’s not that it rolls. A global shutter would also have blackout without sufficiently high readout speeds. On the flip side, Sony’s A9 doesn’t blackout and its shutter rolls (well, the modern curtain style anyway), but it reads fast enough to not notice.

Sure, but as far as we know, global shutters as a function of price and performance are not there yet for consumer cameras. It's not a realistic choice for the 5DIV's release in 2016, and probably remains an unrealistic option for 2019 cameras.

My bigger issue (because I enjoy birding) is with the performance of on-sensor autofocus versus dedicated AF sensor. The latter is provably faster on every camera that has both, and there are no mirrorless cameras that can autofocus as quickly as the fastest DSLRs.

I wasn’t advocating global shutter*, I was commenting on rolling shutter as the source of blackout. With electronic shutters blackout isn’t caused by line-by-line reads, it’s caused by too slow reads.


*But incidentally, as I think we’ve discussed before, I don’t think GS needs be prohibitively expensive any more than does BSI or stacked architecture. A $3,000 sensor is expensive, but large production runs would burn down the NRE and unit cost.

 

[Talys]

I wasn’t advocating global shutter*, I was commenting on rolling shutter as the source of blackout. With electronic shutters blackout isn’t caused by line-by-line reads, it’s caused by too slow reads.


*But incidentally I don’t think it needs be prohibitively expensive. A $3,000 sensor is expensive, but large production runs would burn down the NRE.

Oh, I see. I was also citing the rolling shutter on most mirrorless cameras (like Sony) as the source of blackouts. I've read about price and performance (image quality as it relates to stills) reasons against global shutters to put them into consumer cameras now, but it's impossible for me to distinguish between fact and fiction. I just don't think it's on anyone's roadmap, yet.

Obviously, they're in some pro CMOS sensor camcorders, so there must be at least the possibility that we'll see them in cameras at some point. I'm happy to eat crow if I'm wrong

 

[3kramd5]

I wasn’t advocating global shutter*, I was commenting on rolling shutter as the source of blackout. With electronic shutters blackout isn’t caused by line-by-line reads, it’s caused by too slow reads.


*But incidentally I don’t think it needs be prohibitively expensive. A $3,000 sensor is expensive, but large production runs would burn down the NRE.

Oh, I see. I was also citing the rolling shutter on most mirrorless cameras (like Sony) as the source of blackouts. I've read about price and performance (image quality as it relates to stills) reasons against global shutters to put them into consumer cameras now, but it's impossible for me to distinguish between fact and fiction. I just don't think it's on anyone's roadmap, yet.

Obviously, they're in some pro CMOS sensor camcorders, so there must be at least the possibility that we'll see them in cameras at some point. I'm happy to eat crow if I'm wrong

Here’s a full frame 8k 30FPS global shutter bayer CMOS sensor. It costs about $5,000, but that’s for a quantity of 1. More production lowers the price.

http://www.cmosis.com/products/product_detail/cmv50000

 

[jolyonralph]

My bigger issue (because I enjoy birding) is with the performance of on-sensor autofocus versus dedicated AF sensor. The latter is provably faster on every camera that has both, and there are no mirrorless cameras that can autofocus as quickly as the fastest DSLRs.

Not only is this becoming less and less of an issue with each iteration of mirrorless sensor technology, mirrorless focus has the great advantage that as this technology improves the camera can interpret the scene and, in many cases, interpret what you are trying to focus on, predict movement in three dimensions for tracking and focusing in a way that makes modern systems, even with multi-focus points spread across the view, look very primitive.

Eye detection is just one part of this. Sports and wildlife are equally important.

Future cameras will be judged by the power of their AI features as much as their resolution and focus speed.