Will DSLRs be gone by 2025 and CIPA shipment volumes for first quarter

[9VIII]

We need to compare SLR sales over the last fifty years.

Between 2000 and 2010 we had an anomoly, every year new cameras were making last year's model obsolete. That had never happened before.
The 1DsMkIII is still an industry standard, 1Dx owners have a sport equivalent of that body only with exponentially better high ISO. 5Ds owners will be happy with the output from that camera in a studio setting for many decades.

The market is mature, and people don't need to upgrade anymore. Look at your sales of new bodies in the 80's and that's probably where the industry is headed.
And note that Mirrorless bodies aren't improving very quickly. Sure, they're building a nice ecosystem... of crop sensors and crop size lenses. Sony is the only one aiming for the professional market. If Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic and Samsung all announced full frame compact bodies today, it would be 2030 before they have a competent system. But no-one is doing that, and professionals or anyone else looking for the best capabilities in a system are still going to be buying EOS for the next 20 years at least (more if the crop companies don't give their head a shake sooner rather than later).
And even if a compact alternative exists, SLR has distinct advantages regardless of IQ parity.

 

[dak723]

Mirrorless will replace DSLRs when an EVF is virtually indistinguishable from an OVF. And when that happens - no one will care! In fact, no one should care now except the companies that make cameras. Users have both options now. Choose the one you like.

 

[9VIII]

And I totally agree that the best mirrorless camera is a 1D with the mirror removed.

Put all those features in an SL1 size body (still with integrated battery grip though) and you have me sold.

 

[old-pr-pix]

CIPA data shows DSLR's have fallen from ~5 to 1 DSLR vs. MILC shipments to currently ~3 to 1 in two years +/-. MILC's are not exactly becoming dominant; but reasonable growth anyway.

I suggest you look again at the graph you posted. dSLR sales are shrinking, but MILC sales are not growing, they're basically flat. Yes, the MILC share of the ILC pie is getting bigger, but that's only because a big chunk of the ILC pie has been eaten by smartphones.

Good catch... better wording would have been "reasonable growth in share" or "reasonable growth in penetration." Clearly not absolute growth in anything other that total accumulated cameras in the field.

 

[dolina]

Exactly 8 years ago ArsTechnica came out with this article dated May 1, 2007.

"Ballmer: iPhone has “no chance” of gaining significant market share"
http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2007/04/30/ballmer-says-iphone-has-no-chance-to-gain-significant-market-share/

Where is Ballmer now?

Where is the iPhone now?

Where is Microsoft now?

Where is Apple now?

What about that $500 subsidized beginning price tag?

How many cellular (not smartphone) phones were sold in 2006/2007?

How many smartphones were sold in 2014?

How many were iPhones?

How many were Android?

How many were "Others"?

A lot of things can change in that length of time. What more 10 years?

 

[old-pr-pix]

We need to compare SLR sales over the last fifty years.

We can do exactly that thanks to CIPA. Extrapolating the pre-DSLR, bubble boom era, it looks like shipments on the order of 4.5 million per year are the average. Peaking around 8 million. That means the industry still has a long way to fall even if we add some for the increased world population.

 

[dolina]

Cool, they started recording digital sales when I got my first dSLR.

 

[Diko]

Hi Diko!

Firstly: The first hyperlink didn't work for me but I could get the right URL:
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/cipa-numbers-for-first.html

Hi Maximilian,

Thanks. Just fixed that.

Secondly: My answer is definetly "Maybe". It's too hard to predict....

It all depends IMHO on three factors:
...
2. Companies:
Will the companies see a chance to gain/keep share in the development of a full mirrorless system with fast pro lenses with modern connectivity
....
3. Market: Will the market follow these companies.
Will 95% use smart device cams and only 5% pros and enthusiasts use ILC or will something totally new apear (e.g. 3D holography for everyday use)

I think a Professional generation that is the trend setter is 20-30-40 years wide (I don't speak of the "generation" term in marketing which it is 10 years).

However we saw in this thread the CIPA numbers of Film-2-Digital transition. Span is less than a decade. That means that photographers (no matter pro or hobby) are quite adaptable so far.

For the moment I must agree with 2 & 3.

I don't see Canon moving away from the EF lens line soon, if ever. If they were going to do that then they could have done so in a measured way with the Cine line where the flange distance is much more flexible, but they didn't.

Good point. But I think that is due to legacy not future. Additionally for the EF there are adapters .

 

[sanj]

Am not sure if I would be there or gone by then. But feel that DSLR - the top end only - will be around.

 

[sanj]

.
The fat lady may not yet have sung in 2025, but for all practical purposes, the age of the DSLR is over.

For a year or so now I've been predicting mirrorless will be prominent at the 2020 Olympics. That's where the tide begins to really turn.

LOL. The death of the dSLR at the hands of MILCs in 5 years was predicted...7 years ago. It's not going to happen in 2020 or 2025.

Sorry but no one has a way of knowing.

 

[Diko]

Am not sure if I would be there or gone by then. But feel that DSLR - the top end only - will be around.

That makes a lot of sense.... Although when a new tech emerges one develops it for the flagship and then cripples it downwards.

 

[dolina]

With how often gear is updated do you see yourself still using the gear you have today by 2025? It is like worrying your smartphone/computer will work by then.

 

[tron]

DSLRs will not be gone. They will exist and will have better sensors

Now how much better would be a nice subject for a rumors/technical site...

 

[weixing]

Hi,
I had no idea, but when I still saw people using Core Duo PC, Windows XP, Office 97 ???, Windows NT 4.0 and etc, I think it'll take quite sometime before DSLR will be gone.

Have a nice day.

 

[Loswr]

I had no idea, but when I still saw people using Core Duo PC, Windows XP, Office 97 ???, Windows NT 4.0 and etc, I think it'll take quite sometime before DSLR will be gone.

People still drive Studebakers, and I bet there's still a Model T or two on the road. Microsoft isn't selling Windows XP or Office 97 anymore, which is really more relevant as an analogy to the issue under discussion.

 

[Moulyneau]

I think no. And allow me - just for the fun of it - to be a bit controversial here. Looking at my crystal ball (not made from Canon glass, thus a little blur), I see DSLRs still there as they were before the digital boom. To simplify, at the time, serious photogs had SLRs and others had Instamatic's, eventually replaced by smart-phones. RIP P&S. In 10 years, I see mirror-less eaten alive by ever-improving smart-phones (who really likes to carry heavier and bulkier lenses than their DSLR's equivalent and watch TV through a viewfinder anyway?). Unless a huge, though greatly improbable, revolution in glass tech allowing for much smaller lens design happens, DSLRs are there to stay. In greatly reduced number from the high but still there. The rest will be super-duper-smart-phones. That's what my crystal ball says. It also says that we'll have to pay the price for the reduced number of gear sold

 

[Loswr]

I see mirror-less eaten alive by ever-improving smart-phones

An interesting and quite plausible point. 'Big' offers certain advantages (ergonomics, shallow DoF)...and smartphones are clearly eroding the 'small' in the camera market. After P&S, MILCs are next on the menu.

 

[sanj]

I see mirror-less eaten alive by ever-improving smart-phones

An interesting and quite plausible point. 'Big' offers certain advantages (ergonomics, shallow DoF)...and smartphones are clearly eroding the 'small' in the camera market. After P&S, MILCs are next on the menu.

No so soon. The ever evolving ML are far superior to the point and shoot which are disappearing. The ML cameras are now being bought not by point and shoot people but by DSLR users who find ML interesting alternate at times. Someone who is starting of any kind of serious photography has a legit choice of ML or DSLR. Earlier it was casual point and shoot vs serious DSLR. ML and DSLR are both for serious photographers. There is a difference here.

As we all believe that mobile will not substitute DSLR, I don't think it will substitute ML either.

 

[Moulyneau]

I see mirror-less eaten alive by ever-improving smart-phones

An interesting and quite plausible point. 'Big' offers certain advantages (ergonomics, shallow DoF)...and smartphones are clearly eroding the 'small' in the camera market. After P&S, MILCs are next on the menu.

No so soon. The ever evolving ML are far superior to the point and shoot which are disappearing. The ML cameras are now being bought not by point and shoot people but by DSLR users who find ML interesting alternate at times. Someone who is starting of any kind of serious photography has a legit choice of ML or DSLR. Earlier it was casual point and shoot vs serious DSLR. ML and DSLR are both for serious photographers. There is a difference here.

As we all believe that mobile will not substitute DSLR, I don't think it will substitute ML either.

Problem is that we dont not know for sure who are the main buyers of MILCs. I can see (is that only me?) a lot of push by what I would call the MILC lobby. I just do not understand the craze for MILCs seemingly fueled by the flattering talk of many review sites. Still, and despite the big number of new such cameras hitting the market every other months, MILCs sales are dropping. I guess the serious photogs have bought theirs while the would-be are realizing that MILCs or not, they still don't get this promised "professional look" they are after. Meanwhile, the light, "always with you" pocket-able, ever improving smart-phones increase in sales. And not just to make calls. Whenever I go now, I only see scores of SP, some DSLR's, hardly any MILCs!

 

[sanj]

Mobile phones are shooting maximum photos is agreed. Outside of these DSLR are more visible, agreed again. But then they have been around much longer and used by many more.

Disagree with: they still don't get this promised "professional look" (with ML).

Have you shot with a ML personally? Here is a ML photo taken 2 years ago. ML must have only improved...