We'll beat the dead horse again by saying this launch cycle is unlike anything that we have seen before. We don't really have any historical reference on how Canon is doing things this go around, and it's most likely due to massive leaks with major products in the past. We can't control it, so we can't get upset it about it. There were a lot of ticked off people with how the EOS R5 information freely flowed.
Simon of The Ordinary Filmmaker fame is reporting that one of his newer sources with about a 75% hit rate has said that Canon will officially announce two full-frame camera bodies this month. That's actually a pretty good hit rate with sources, as the misses tend to be in the details and not in the broader picture.
Interestingly, one of them isn't the EOS R1, as we expect the similar development announcement and launch that we saw with the EOS R3 prior to the Tokyo games. We all enjoyed following Jeff Cable's coverage of the EOS R3 at the Olympics before the official announcement.
This source is suggesting they will announce two full-frame cameras that you can actually preorder, as you'll likely have to wait until Q4 to fill up your credit card/donate kidney for the EOS R1.
We have heard absolutely nothing about a camera outside of the EOS R5 Mark II and EOS R1, but with how things are going, we're not really surprised. A camera like the EOS R5 Mark II will take the attention of most people through enthusiast chatter.
We know that Canon has registered 3 EOS R and 2 Cinema EOS cameras with certification bodies. We expect all of them to be announced by early Q4 of 2024.
So what could that second camera be? We speculated that we'd see an EOS RP follow-up, perhaps an R9? However, another camera we hadn't paid much attention to could make a lot of sense based on some historical events and sales volumes. Simon was the first person to suggest to me, “What about an EOS R6 Mark III?“
As you all know, the EOS R6 was announced in July of 2020, shortly after the EOS R5 and was refreshed in November of 2022. Originally the EOS R5 and EOS R6 were to be announced on the same day, but things were a bit messy at that time globally.
The refresh, while a bit surprising at the time made a lot of sense in hindsight. That segment of the camera market is really competitive and drives volume sales. The EOS R6 line has for the most part, been the best selling EOS R full-frame camera series.
There were 846 days between the announcement of the EOS R6 and the EOS R6 Mark II. If you pick May 15 of this year for a refresh, that would only be 560 days. Which is definitely a lot less time, but again, things back in 2020-2022 weren't “normal”. The market has also changed a lot in the creator world with new platforms and higher production quality. Along with a ton of competition with the likes of Sony and the resurgence of Nikon.
We've never been in a Canon factory, nor do we have any knowledge of how they do things but there are economies of scale in manufacturing. Streamlining product launches and manufacturing could have some cost savings.
Just prior to the announcement of the EOS R6 Mark II, there was a significant (for the time) instant rebate applied to the EOS R6. As we've seen this week, there has been a significant $500 USD instant rebate applied to the EOS R6 Mark II bringing it down to $1999. This sort of thing can be normal around the Black Friday/Christmas festivities, but in May?
Canon's latest financials did mention that they have been spending a lot on promotion programs, and that those would likely continue. So it could simply be to get more people to more cameras.
Now we did not that the third camera registered was WiFi 5, while the other two were WiFi 6, which we just assumed meant entry-level, but the current EOS R6 Mark II has the same thing. If it's a mid 20's MP camera that doesn't shoot a billion frames a second, does it really need an upgraded WiFi spec? Maybe through market research, Canon has discovered that EOS R6 series shooters simply don't use WiFi the same way higher end camera shooters do.
This is all just conjecture based off of what The Ordinary Filmmaker has reported and what we have noticed historically.
So where are the leaks and teasers?
In the past, we have obviously seen Canon jump on the teaser train with new product announcements, sometimes weeks in advance. With that however, comes more people knowing things. The more people that know, the more likely leaks will occur.
We do know of a couple of major retailers outside of the USA have not had any NDA meetings about this cycle of product launches. In the past, that could happen a month or more ahead of a major announcement. It shouldn't come as a surprise, but once the information hits retail, the pipes burst and it's not just leaks.. everything comes out.
We do know of one Canon subsidiary that doesn't give anything to retailers prior to the official announcement. So they find out, when you find out.
That said, we do know of a few accessory makers that are under NDA and that they expire this month.
While we know more than we have published about the EOS R5 Mark II, we have been unable to publish too many things at the request of the source.
EOS R6 Mark III? Today is the first day we even considered the possibility. Some things are just lining up, but coincidences do happy, and new history can be made.
Even now, shaking trees isn't as effective as it used to be, but we'll hold out hope!
There will be more very soon on the specification side of things.
If so an R6III makes sense.
As for a successor to the EOS RP…I think that could make a lot of sense, and if Canon, once again, applied an existing sensor to it, then probably wouldn’t be a lot of noise regarding such camera.
That would surprise me like a real life unicorn.
I own the Mark II. I have absolutely nothing to complain about it.
If 24 MP are enough for you (as it is for me - most of the time ;) ), I say it's the camera to go.
I wouldn't see any reason to upgrade.
In German photozines it wins a lot of tests, only beaten by the R5 and its resolution.
I wouldn't set a cent on a Mark III before late 2025 or 2026.
Not that I would make the opposite bet as well... ;)
I see no reason to put that sensor into a Mark III.
Maybe another one with about 30 MP. Maybe one with global shutter.
But there is absolutely no need to replace the actual sensor by the one of the R3.
If you don't believe me, look at the photos I post here...
If the sensor is the point that keeps you from buying an R6m2, use the actual rebates to get one.
Maybe the R1 will remain mythical.
Canon is warned:
If nothing is announced in May, I won't hesitate and...
wait a bit longer.
Of course, a global shutter would do as well, but I highly doubt we’ll ever see a R6 with a global shutter prior to the release of that component on a higher grade model (like a R3 Mark II).
Flash sync with electronic shutter, high frequency anti-flicker, 14 bit RAW on electronic shutter, and sensor readout as quick as a mechanical shutter (or better) are the features I’m looking forward to have on my next camera body acquisition, hence the “R3 mini” wish, or at least a stacked sensor R6.
Too good to be true!
A few more improvements here and there are always welcome.
1. Canon desperately needs a better prosumer grade APS-C. The R7 isn't it. So maybe an R7 Mark II.
2. Retro camera to compete with Nikon.
Of course May could come and go with no announcement at all. Again.