Canon updated its uniquely-Japanese “Apology and Guidance” announcement, revealing that new orders of the EOS R3 body and also the RF 14-35 f/4 lens can take more than half a year to deliver due partly to supply constraints, but also because of demand “in excess of expectations.”
A list of products taking merely “longer than usual” to deliver includes the RF 16mm f/2.8, the RF 400mm f/2.8, and – interestingly – the not-yet-released RF 800mm and the RF 1200mm.
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The cheapest camera you can still order from Nikon and Sony are... Zf c ($1100 kit) and a7 III (!). Canon is not a company with a history of going against the tide and they abandoned ships quicker than most of the manufacturers. I'm afraid "afforable cameras" (sub $1000) are gone like forever. Maybe there will be one or two released (and if they do that's great), but I don't EXPECT anything.
8 RF lenses in stock and only two of them are L lenses.
Most likely, they already know they'll have issues delivering it, because the new products will probably require parts that are similar or equal to those in the other products suffering with the global supply shortage.
PS - Picked up the 14-35 back in December and have been putting it to good use on the R5
I think your assumption is wrong. My R5 and my wife's R5 were both ordered and delivered on the same day (about a year after the R5 was introduced) and have a difference of over 200 in the serial numbers. Mine has a serial number ending in the 1500s, which means that by your calculation only 1,500 R5s were sold in the first year after they were introduced. Not bloody likely.
My R3, preordered within 10 minutes of orders being taken and shipped on opening day, has a higher serial number than yours.
Check the dates on those websites you looked at. As I recall, Canon changed it's lens numbering system several years ago and no longer identifies the city where they were assembled.
The risk they take with that is people jumping ship rather than waiting, a few months of buzz is one thing, 6months + is another story. I think the simplest explanation is the obvious, ie supply issues.
Your 'a few years from now' comment is a bit hyperbolic. But imagine this - Canon, Sony, Nikon see the supply chain issues. Decide to hold all launches for 2, now maybe up to 3 years. What would this forum look like? "Photography is dead". "The big 3 have abandoned us" "Wow the iPhone killed the camera market way faster than we thought it would" "Better sell my gear now and find a new hobby before any more resale value is lost".
Meanwhile, Canon, Nikon and Sony camera divisions lose income, reduce development, new products take longer to develop and get released in to a market that convinced itself the sector was dead, sales go down further...
Or you can see the development advancing, but you have to wait a few months for your gear. Which is better?
You have correctly identified that just in time production is part of what caused this situation. When every part is on the critical path (is a rate-limiting part), a supply chain disruption is devastating. Add to that the consolidation to these huge/giga factories, where now parts only come from one place. Lose that and its a big problem for everyone. We've discussed this academically at work a lot . Will the business world change away from JIT and try and look to diversify suppliers to avoid this type of disruption in the future? Time will tell.
Brian
Toyota know this well and have months of stock/manufacturing capacity of some critical items that can only come from one supplier.
The problem with todays supply issues is not the JIT policy, it is the fact that items normally available from several sources are not available from any source, not just microchips.
However Mister Canon, let's be serious, how can you announce two super tele lenses and even start talking about a presentation of the R1 at the end of the year when orders for the R3 are still not delivered.
By delivering one R3 per month in France to retailers, most professionals will never wait another 6 months.
Who can trust Canon if an R1 is announced?
If Canon only delivers 1 body/retailer/month, it'll be a couple of years before I get offered one, and the poor people at the end won't see an R3 for 15+ years.
I'm starting to consider if a used 1DX3 would be a good choice for me over waiting for the R3.
With the freeze problems of the R6, R5 and R3, I would think that Canon wants to iron out these problems before putting out an R1.
Personally, I don't think that we'll see an R1 this year. Not even as a development announcement.
I think this is pure marketing and Canon's attitude is not very clear about the delivery of the R3.
I really doubt that there is no stock somewhere.
What is certain is that the best deal at the moment is to buy used MkIIIs, also the prices of used EF lenses are falling.
MkIII is a great camera.