What does CR Guy See Coming?
As always, trying to predict what giant multinational corporations is going to do with product development can be hard, but I’ll give it a go.
Digital SLR
Canon needs to get back in the game as far as DSLR’s go. There is a perception that Canon has fallen behind Nikon as far as tech goes. Is it true? Maybe a little bit. There’s no reason Canon can’t be out front of Nikon, they have the resources and manufacturing capabilities to take back the crown.
1Ds Mark IV
– 32mp or higher sensor.
– Same autofocus system as 1D4
– 5fps
– New video features to separate it from the rest of the lineup.
– DIGIC IV
The Rebel Line
– Two new cameras
– One camera will be 12mp and the other 18mp (Same as the 7D)
– One camera will have an articulating display
– Both cameras will have movie modes, one being better than the other.
– Ergonomic upgrades (Scrollwheel!) Maybe more of a wish than a prediction
– New chipped batteries
– Both cameras in the 3fps to 4fps range
60D
– 18mp sensor (Same as 7D)
– 720p Video Mode @ 30fps. 1080p maybe.
– 6.3fps
– A new autofocus system based on the 7D, but less focus points.
– Missing some of the 7D bells and whistles like the electronic level.
– Smaller VF than the 7D
– This is actually a hard camera to predict. What will they leave out from the 7D?
3D
– FF in the 16-21mp range.
– 4-6.3fps
– DIGIC V
– New sensor technology
– Same size as 5D2
– 7D Autofocus system
– 1080p movie mode, same as 5D2
EVIL (Electronic viewfinder interchangeable lenses)
There will be no Micro 4/3 style camera from Canon in 2010. If they ever get on board, they will be the last one to do so.
So that makes 5 new SLR’s in 2010. That could be far fetched, but why not? 2010 is going to be a better year for most everyone.
Part 2 (Later today)
I will focus on lenses.
cr
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I’m not sure it would be clever to move from 21m in the 5DmkII to a 16-18mp range in a 3D… (not sure even the “3D” name would be clever).
^^why not? The megapixel race should end somewhere?
That was a typo… i meant 16-21. Still, the camera could be the “lord of darkness”.
I think the 3D will have 6-8FPS. That would give it 108-144MP/sec, compared with 144MP/sec for the 7D and 160MP/sec for the 1DMkIV.
On the 60D, I think it easier to think what will they change from 50D, not what will they cut from 7D. Owning both myself, the gap between them isn’t as big as it is made out.
I’d predict the 60D will take the 50D body (so maintains compatibility with existing accessories like grip, battery, focus screens) with the addition of video mode and the 7D’s sensor. I wonder if they will keep the old AF system help keep a gap. A reduced point version of the 7D’s doesn’t offer much benefit, other than perhaps the small spot focus system. But then that would then also require a viewfinder update.
Am I seeing things or did the specs for the 3D change in the last few minutes? The new ones are an improvement. 21MP at 6FPS sounds thoroughly plausible as a 3D (or 9D or 5DMkIII). Then again, maybe the 5DMkIII will be 32MP.
Also 6-8fps seems more in line with the D700 and perhaps upcoming D900. After all, we already have a high res but on the slow side model. That niche is covered, do something at the other end of the spectrum, for diversities sake.
Lord of darkness – I guess the problem then would be what video features would the 1DS have that were missing from the 3D to stop the 3D being the better camera for video. I’d expect the 1DS to come out first (3D end of year?) so we’ll see then what they add on to current video features.
A full frame 7D with a less dense/lower noise sensor would be ideal for me.
The 1D4 has beaten the D700/D3 in both resolution and noise performance.
HOWEVER, they have nothing that matches the high ISO performance of the D3s.
And nothing to match the dynamic range of the D3X.
As far as APS-C goes (without resorting to in-camera RAW NR like the D90/D5000/K-X) , nothing beats the 7D… so far. Canon leads here.
Agree with all of this.
In an age when photographs and videos are increasingly being distributed via the Internet and viewed on 1920×1080 LCD displays, I have to wonder how much advantage there is to taking 18MP over 12MP. One application where resolution IS important is huge photographs (minimum 20″x30″) being used as corporate wall decorations and, for that, I want 30MP+.
Really hope we can see 3D later this year. I don’t want anything else that 3D :)
And of course 24-70 IS and new wide angle zoom :)
For me I don’t care for 21MP+ or less.I need better IQ and High ISO performance (as D3s is prefered) with most important thing such auto focus 1D IV !!!! If canon want to revenge nikon, they have to do something big surprise !!!! I wait for that….come on!!!
A full frame 7D would be great indeed, as long as its price tag doesn’t pass the 2200 dollar mark…but I guess that is not very likely pricetagwise…anyone?
Did you know that the Canon 3d has been a rumour on Northlight Images since September 2004?
http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_3d.html
I read and read and prayed…but to no avail.
I wouldn’t encourage anyone to hold their breath.. ;)
I would say if it doesn’t make sense business wise for them (looking at their current pricing and lineup) Don’t lose any sleep at night over it. Either that or just save the extra month or so and get the camera you want.
Canon Rumors or Canon Guessing???
Huh? aren’t we talking about Canon here?
People crop you know ?
If the 60D is 18mp I’ll be thoroughly disappointed.
Though I’ve been told in a previous thread I can just shoot at a lower resolution and it will solve expand the diffraction limits. Not sure how this would work though.
Why would more af points in the center need a vf update? don’t think so. But more af pts in the center, for us that use mostly the center af now, would be so good !
the 60d will be 16.1 MP and will have a GAY sensor on it´s back.
I don’t care about any new bodies… but some new lenses or refreshes would be awesome. Both Canon and Nikon seem to crank out camera bodies with such small incremental upgrades… but in photography aren’t the lenses just as if not more important than the bodies?
Given how the 7D relates to the D300 – Canon might actually do such a thing. ;)
Does anyone know how many products a developed and given to another unit or just scraped?
It won’t “solve” the diffraction limit, here’s what happens, essentially when you squeeze light through a small hole it disperses or diffracts, reducing the absolute amount you can resolve, when you resolve the same amount over a larger area this effect becomes less and less (one of the advantages of full frame or med format).
The issue is that when you shoot closed down on a relatively small area like a 1.6 crop camera with a lot of resolution, 18mp in the case of the 7d, the light is diffracted enough that the conditions are no longer available to resolve 18mp worth of detail. How ever, it’s not diffraction limited until you view the file close zoomed in enough, or a big enough print that you can SEE the effects of diffraction, at which point it is said to be diffraction limited.
If you shoot sRAW your essentially just throwing out some of the pixels, that’s not to say diffraction didn’t occur, but when you zoom into 100% it won’t be as obvious because of the information you disgarded, how ever it won’t make your photo any more or less sharp.
A rule of thumb, is to stop down to the “sweet spot” of the lens, and no further unless you need the extra depth of field.
If diffraction seriously concerns you read this:
http://www.cambridgeincolour.com/tutorials/diffraction-photography.htm
My prediction for 2010 is that Canon will release the FIRST affordable FF dslr for the consumer.
Wether it’s part of the Rebel line, or the XXD line, I truly feel that if Canon did this, it’d push all the competitors back on their heels and send them scrambling.
A truly affordable FF dslr would be a game changer. I don’t think it would canabalized 5D sales. In fact, I could see alot of professional photogs buying a FF Rebel or XXD as a back up.
Plus it would open up the world of FF to a WHOLE new demo. Cause lets face it, point and shoots are getting better and better. 4/3rds is out there. I think people WANT to make that leap to FF, but many aren’t willing to shell out nearly 3 grand for a body.
A basic FF in sub $1,000 or slightly over body would put Canon back on top IMHO and steal the thunder back from Nikon.
I don’t know if this is a hope more than a prediction for 2010, but I feel this is the direction Canon is headed eventually. :-)
I understand the main issue is in the exponential production costs for the larger sized sensor.
Seriously! These predicted specs for the 3D are the only thing that’s going to get me to upgrade from my original 5D. All I want is a full frame camera with professional quality autofocus and great current generation high ISO quality. No need for 32MP or whatever the 1DS IV will be.
/Cranky = 1
Hope I’m wrong but I don’t see Canon doing anything interesting till summer. The $5,000 photojournalism 1DMarkIV is all we’ll see at CES. Great camera but sheesh, $5K? The 7D is a nice good lighting bird camera.
Also, the promised and pre announced 5D Mark II firmware upgrade is evidence the 3D is nowhere in sight. The pre-announce is to keep 5DMII sales going by promising something found in the nearly half the price 7D.
I’m very disappointed at Canon in the mid range of the market, and I’m still sitting on my 30D for that reason.
/Cranky = 0
Don’t be silly.
Sony’s A850 hardly make a dent on DSLR sales chart. In fact, the more expensive 5D2 walks all over it. So, do you Canon cares what YOU want?
Reply meant for wuweiwarrior
Hmmm – although I’m planing to upgrade my 1D2 to a 1D4, a 3D as described above would also just be the right thing for me. Actually, I don’t need 10fps. I’d be happy if it’s 5fps or more (which killed the 5D2 for me, together with the “lean” AF). But I’d like a FF sensor for the sake of true wide angles.
Pixel count a little on the low side, Hi-ISO performance on the high side – that’d sure be nice.
So let’s weit and see what the future will bring. :-)
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE let the 3D be a 7D with the sensor of the 5D mark I. Man that’d be a NICE camera!
That wasn’t what I said. I said if they took the size shrinkable AF points from the 7D, then the 60D would need an updated viewfinder display to show the AF point size as that can’t be done with the current 50D display directly.
Personally I wish for more AF points towards the edge regions too as they’re all concentrated in the middle on the 7D.
Wow. A little hostile aren’t we? I don’t care if Canon listens to me or not. And of course the Canon walks all over the Sony. I’m talking Canon vs Nikon here.
It’s not about what I want. I just feel that a TRULY affordable FF is where the market is moving. The pixel race in that demo is reaching the absurd. Somethings got to give, and the affordable FF barrier is the next hurdle IMHO.
This is a PREDICTION thread. Dolce and Gabanna. HELLO. LOL.
Seriously. THAT is my prediction. I could be wrong. But then ALOT of the predictions on this blog have been waaaaay off.
It’s called having some fun. Part wishful thinking yes. But also I think this is where the consumer dslr market is heading. The question is WHO is going to get there first? Canon or Nikon. My money is on Canon. :-)
1Ds Mark IV
– 32mp or higher sensor.
– New video features to separate it from the rest of the lineup.
they can keep it, bye bye Canon for me
Me too, Me too, Me too, Me too!!!!!!! I’m in the exact same boat as you. I already bought, tested and returned the 5DMII and canceled my order on the 1DMIV after viewing the high ISO images. 3D as you’ve described will wrap it up for me and get me to stick to Canon for another 5+ years.
If 60D will have better high ISO performance, I’m probably going to buy it. I really wish it won’t have 18 megapixels, I thought Canon stopped with this nonesense on APS-C sensors.
I doubt we will see a 3D so soon. I mean, a new line came (7D) and not a few months later, another line? Just my 2 cents.
Yeah, they crop down and see how terrible 7D shots look close up.
Just my .02 as an amatuer…I have sat out the entire DSLR game waiting on a FF body for under $2K. The fact that this technology is still basically reserved for pro gear is ridiculous. My last body was an Elan 7e purchased at release for about $500. You can’t tell me the sensor and related technology adds more than $1500 to the price of a body. I could care less about any of the rumored 2010 gear. Give me a FF 7D for $2K and I’m all in. Until something like this happens, I’ll continue to shoot with my superzoom p&s. Thanks for a great forum and apologies for the strident tone. I’ve just had enough of waiting.
+1000
An updated 5D mk 1 sensor with the 7D AF system would be f’ing awesome.
It’s also never going to happen.
me too, I’m also a 5D user and hope to see 3D by the end of this year…
Cropping is a lame excuse for high-res sensors.
I foresee no 60D at all!
It will not see its daylight anytime soon.
Why?
A 60D would bite the 7D in its tail in all cases.
– The current listprice of the 7D is the same as 50D pricepoint last year. Canon is in the business to make money not to loose it.
– 7D’s sensor for the 60D would not make sense its only 3MP upgrade and too close to the 7D.
– A bigger then 7D sensor, would make the 7D obsolete if it were only about MP. Next to that a bigger sensor would come with more noise and banding and making people cry out loud how bad it is (remember 40D to 50D anybody) and therefore make people stay with the 50D.
– A new AF for the 60D? Never, because there wouldn’t be any need to buy 7D then anyway.
– Adding video to the 50D and call it 60D? Why buy the camera anyway then?
– Adding a FF or APS-H sensor to the 60D? Would harm the 7D and 5D2 sales and is therefore out of a marketing perspective almost impossible for Canon at this moment.
Canon is clearly stuck in the xxD line and can’t bring out a 60D unless 5D2 is being replaced and 7D is upgraded.
The biggest mistake Canon has made is giving the 7D a 1.6 crop sensor while it should have come with a APS-H sensor.
With this decision Canon blocked the future of its xxD series for some time to come.
I want to see war: Canon EOS 3D vs Nikon D700s. :D
your waiting will continue.
Nah.
These predictions are off – except for the 1Ds4, which is a sure thing basically.
The weak points in the Canon lineup are the $1000 and the $500 price points.
My prediction is that we are going to see new models addressing these weaknesses.
50D replacement
Despite being a very good camera at its current price ($950), the 50D is not selling well because it’s not spec’d right for this price point.
So, expect a new, slightly bigger Rebel with some of the xxD features, like bigger viewfinder, better AF, and maybe the control wheel.
Most probably it will not have 18mp, which will be reserved exclusively for the 7D.
1000D replacement
Despite being the cheapest model in the lineup, its sales are well below the 450D and the 500D.
Expect the xxxxD line to go away or to be replaced with a compact, mirror-less body.
5DII replacement
May or may not come this year.
Will be a FF version of the 7D – but with a 5-6fps frame rate, not the 8fps of the 7D.
So, we’ll have at most four new bodies this year but three is more likely – 1Ds4, 50D replacement, 1000D replacement, and a small chance for a 5DII replacement.
I’ve read that a FF sensor can exceed 20 times the expense of a APS-C. This is a huge number when one is talking about the most expensive component. I don’t see a sub-$1000 full frame until they can bring these manufacturing costs down.
A 3D with 5 or less FPS, is a no go for me.
Looks more and more like a Nikon D900 is coming per NikonRumors.com.
I expect the Nikon D900 will be what the Canon 5D2 should have been all along, a small body FF, 18 MP, Pro AF, 5-7 FPS, weather sealed, exceptional low light high ISO images.
Canon = more MP, always more MP, never less MP for high ISO high dynamic range quality images.
Right. Canon’s own materials explain why the FF sensors are so expensive. I can’t see the cost becoming reasonable until they can make them at the volume of APS-C and that means a radical change in manufacturing, from what I understand.
I would like to see a FF in the $1400-$1500 range, but not if it means make the AF, etc. weak in order to cover the cost of the sensor. I think we will continue to see that FF takes it up a substantial notch. It needs better lenses, etc. It is like buying a McMansion and not having enough left over to furnish it. If I scrap every penny to get into the FF body, I don’t have what I need to get the necessary glass…
-1001
Logic fail. An updated 5DII will be called 5D Mark III, no reason to call it 3D. Canon has tested a number of features with 7D and some of them will find their way into the future cameras.
If model number “3D” will be used it will be a brand new line, not an incremental increase of the existing line.
jono is right,
Why sit on the sidelines for the sake of a couple hundred $ ?
The perfect camera will never be built. The guy who waits for it will die never enjoying a DSLR.
Make sure you are ready to blast the >14 MP Nikon D400 when it gets released.
High pixel density is great for revealing lens defects such as decentered elements. Canon needs more free QC workers from their customers. LOL.
I think the complaint here is that a top of the line film camera was five hundred bucks, is a sensor really $1500? It’s valid.
However, two grand for a full frame is what the market bears. Therefore, that’s how much they cost. My first DSLR was a used 10D and I then used it for seven more years. Go out and find a used 5D, that’s your less than two grand solution at this point.
The update from 40D to 50D wasn’t that big either: essentially a new sensor and high res screen. A jump of “only” adding video mode and the 7D sensor isn’t much different.
On the sensor, the 500D came out with near enough the same sensor as the 50D. Did that stop people buying the 50D? No.
The whole new AF system moved down to 60D is highly unlikely, but I’d still leave the door open for some cut down version of it. e.g. same point count and arrangement as 50D but with improved tracking algorithms.
If they gave the 7D a bigger sensor, that would kill 1D4 sales before they started.
Also I’d have to disagree on the historical pricing. I got the 50D in Nov ’08 for £900. Right now, the 7D is still over £1200 with the 50D trying to hit £700. There’s room for a 60D to undercut the 7D enough to be attractive. Again looking historically, the 500D came out at the same price as the 50D at the time, but the price came down quickly to give a gap. I’d predict a 60D relative to 7D would so similarly.
Oh, a 3D would make me so, so happy.
Just give me great AF with full-frame, for under $5k.
Dont u think 1ds Mark IV should be 30mp? to compete with nikons d3x? or a 30mp 3D.
a 17mp d900 will kill the 18mp 3D
1ds Mark IV
30mp
The most advanced HD Video SLR w/Touch Sensitive scroll button
its the 3d.I Hope..it will be the (3d)
“EVIL (Electronic viewfinder interchangeable lenses)
There will be no Micro 4/3 style camera from Canon in 2010. If they ever get on board, they will be the last one to do so.”
Whoever came up with that evil EVIL acronym really deserves to get shot…
Anyway, even if Canon will be the last one to get one on the market they are also likely to be the first one who does it right. So far none of the MIL (Mirror-less, Interchangeable Lens) cameras are what they should be, in styling they are either mini-DSRLs or use a silly “retro” look. This is a new technology that requires new approach, new paradigm, and new style. I hope Canon will go the Apple way on this one – be late but get it right. They could also employ a few Apple designers for the iCanon’s perfect UI. One can dream.
Happily, if the per-pixel sharpness shows the same characteristics.
+1001
Reading comprehension fail.
wake me up when they get back to using eye control focus.
Indeed. “PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE let the 3D be a 7D with the sensor of the 5D mark I”
“Canon needs to get back in the game as far as DSLR’s go.”
It does seems there needs to be some new blood in their decision making ranks, I do hope canon does rediscover its competitive spirit focusing its R&D and mfg capabilites on establishing a leadership role.
Megapixels aren’t as relevant as a differentiator as it once was 4-5 years ago, perhaps they might want to move to a new problem such as giving the sensors as 2-3 stop dynamic range as film once gave, maybe 16 bit or greater color or perhaps un-interpolated color?
How about instead of the 3D, the 7Ds? 6.3 fps sounds right, it tops Nikon’s D700, who only shoots 5 fps, but doesn’t come close to the 1D MkIV. But then again, maybe 7 fps. And it’ll probably use something close to the sensor in the 1D MkIV, but with the 7D’s AF with the 63 dual zone and iFCL metering, the same body style with a larger viewfinder hump, and 100% coverage and LED grid overlay. Don’t forget weather sealing and dual card slots. I’d buy it in a heart beat, especially since I’m going to make out good on my taxes this year, which will hopefully come after this camera is announced, and I mean THIS camera.
OK, maybe not D7s. But the rest would be sweet for sure. And I like the thumb dial/direction pad combo on the photoshop mock up of the 700D, but I also think it would nice to have the functions displayed on the direction pad change as the customized functions changed, and you could save groups or sets of functions and change them on the fly.
And I think Canon has the best shot at a mirrorless Micro 4/3 competitor, in terms of the others that have legacy lenses. Canon are already all digital, where as Sony and Nikon both use a mechanical device to control the aperture, at least. Canon would just have to offer an adapter in their kit with the camera, to use the EF/EF-S lenses, and they wouldn’t have to come out with new lenses for their mirrorless system as fast as the other competitors. Samsung is already doing it with their NX10, http://www.dpreview.com/previews/samsungnx10/ and Nikon and Sony will have a harder time developing a system that will allow the use of the existing lenses and more pressure to develop lenses specific for that line.
Same for me. Give me a full frame version of the 7D, I don’t care what you call it, and I’ll buy it. After migrating from my 40D to a 5D I rarely use the 40D anymore.
@JM – Buy a used 5D. That will get you in the FF world for under 2 grand, easily.
I guess no matter what there will be some sort of compromise.
My concern is because I shoot mostly landscapes, but I do often make prints larger than 8×10. On my 12mp 450D I’m mostly happy, until I print really large photos, at which point I feel they could look a little sharper sometimes. I don’t usually go past f8 or 10.
I’m not sure what the best compromise would be for resolution on a 1.6x crop body. I was thinking something in the neighborhood of 15mp might be ideal. Or maybe full frame is really the way to go, though I’m not sure I want to spend so much on a camera.
well… it get’s fairly “complicated” and subjective, it all comes down to “how sharp is sharp”. Technically speaking if you have perfect 20/20 vision, and look at a 11×14 inch print from 25 cm away, taken on a 1.6 crop it could potentially be diffraction limited at anything smaller then f4, but chances are unless you had it side by side with a shot that wasn’t diffraction limited you wouldn’t be able to tell. In fact it probably wouldn’t be obvious till about f/8.
I think the important thing to remember is the resolution of the sensor isn’t really a big factor, if you down sample an 18 mp file to 15 and take a strait 15 mp file at identical settings, there will be no difference in terms of the effects from diffraction.
IMHO Full frame is the way to go, especially if your looking at landscapes, I mean ideally landscapes should be on large format, where you can shoot wide open or slightly closed down and use movements to maximize DOF. A larger recording area will almost always produce better IQ assuming both have comparable resolving power.
Maybe consider a second hand 5D, a camera that has some of the best per pixel sharpness to date. Or if you want to stay cropped and camera responsiveness isn’t a big issue get a 50D rather then a 7D.
It’s a nice thought, but there isn’t much they can take out of the 5d II to make it any more basic, like the AF is already lower grade then the 50D, the body construction is nothing special, aside from putting in a smaller view finder (which to me is a bad idea because that makes it less of a joy to use) and maybe knocking down the ergonomics so that they lose the second control wheel… how much can they really take out?
I think the next installment of the 5d will be even more competitively priced and potentially have better features in terms of AF etc, maybe then, they could consider doing a smiler thing they do with the XXXD series where they sell both the 450d and the 500d, but it’s harder to do that in a much smaller % of sales.
Well even if we’re talking canon vs nikon, as much as the canon users bitch about the 5d II, it still outsells the d700 by a decent margin, if you look at % of market share, the 5d II usually ranks in the top 20, the d700 isn’t even on the list.
I mean I myself am in the boat who desperately wishes the 5D II was just a little better in the AF department, and maybe the construction, but sales don’t lie, and canon seem to know what they’re doing when it comes to getting their market share.
Hello dude, I love your site. With the abundance of misinformation regarding this subject on the internet, it’s great to see some refreshing content. Keep up the good work!
I belive next step for body’s is to change the conection system with the lens, there will be in the future more body’s than lenses if they continue to add new models so fast. I can not spend so much money to buy so much technology but if I buy one good lens in two years will steel be a good one.
Is it a 30 day riskless trial?
There are enough APS-C and Full Frame models from Canon. But only APS-H sensor camera is 1D Mark X.
They should bring new model with APS-H sensor in the name of “9D” or replace the 7D sensor in next 7D mark ii with APS-H.
So I’m thinking…..
I’m going to get the 550D this summer, but should I wait a little bit and hope the price will fall for 7D to what the current price is for 550D?