Canon has released their financials for the full year of 2022. Things are going well all things considered. I guess the YouTubers continue to be wrong about the market.
From Canon Financials
As for the camera market, despite concerns that consumer spending will decline, the
demand of users, which mainly consists of professionals and enthusiasts – people that enjoy
taking still images and videos – remained rock solid. Thanks to this, and the launch of new
mirrorless cameras by manufacturers, the market grew to 5.85 million units in 2022, which is
also the market size we expect in 2023.
In 2022, our sales were up by 120 thousand units to 2.86 million units, as we added to our
lineup the EOS R7 and EOS R10, the first EOS R series cameras that use APS-C sensors.
In December of 2022, we launched the EOS R6 Mark II, a full-frame mirrorless camera. This
model offers high performance in both still-image and video capture, featuring, among
others, enhanced autofocus functions, including subject detection, high-speed continuous
shooting of up to approximately 40 frames per second, and high-quality 4K video recording.
In 2023, the new products that we launched last year will contribute to sales throughout the
year. In addition to this, to facilitate our aim of 2.9 million unit sales this year, we plan to
further strengthen our EOS R series lineup by, for example, introducing models that will
broaden our base of interchangeable-lens camera users
As for RF lenses, last year we added 7 new models to our lineup which now consists of 33
lenses. Going forward as well, we will continue to expand our RF lens lineup in order to meet
the diverse shooting needs of our users
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There's maybe something wrong in my reasoning, what could it possibly be? :unsure:
(This is just a feeling that I have so please do not ask me to prove it.)
Canon overestimated before so I think they are being conservative this time.
The other statement that caught me eye was, “…plan to further strengthen our EOS R series lineup by, for example, introducing models that will broaden our base of interchangeable-lens camera users.” To me, that suggests we will see more introductions at the low end of the camera body line up (R50, R100).
So I guess the royalities from licensing are a myth, always learn something new from these forums. Also its not just Canon but everyone is doomed this economic year, with hubris regarding prices(motherboard and GPU makers are in much worse place than camera makers) coming back to bite everyone in backside royally. Also with the sheer number of layoff happening right now are bad for non essential industries.
Edit: here is forecast for drop in demand of new servers as well(high margin segment) along how Samsung has also had massive drop in profits.
Projected YoY Growth Rate of Global Server Shipments for 2023 Has Been Lowered to 1.87% Due to North American Cloud Service Providers Cutting Demand
Samsung Electronics Announces Fourth Quarter and FY 2022 Results, Profits at an 8-year Low
Here is the forecast for auto sales in 2023, a 7% increase over last year.
2023 Predictions: Edmunds Experts Forecast 14.8 Million New Vehicles Will Be Sold in New Year
Feel free to post more irrelevant information. :rolleyes:
But profits derived from selling own lenses are certainly more juicy than royalties obtained from 3rd party competitors.
You're a knowledgeable and intelligent guy neuro, but your unnecessary rudeness to some contributors sometimes lets you down ;)
No surprise that Canon is projecting little to no overall growth in the market. The enthusiast market is aging out and the professional market has been shrinking for decades. Camera manufacturers will be lucky to find enough new customers to offset the losses, let alone see some growth. Canon's strategy for the past several years seems to be to capture more dollars per unit rather than rely on ever-increasing unit sales.
Agree that the line about broadening their base probably refers to more budget models. I don't think that is in conflict with what I just wrote. Canon has relied on the lower cost Rebel market for years. I see this as a market that has a lot of churn. People buy a "nice" camera in conjunction with certain life events (birth of a child, major vacations, kids starting sports, etc. etc.) Each year a certain number of this group moves on and another contingent moves in to replace them, so that overall demand remains fairly constant. These customers used to buy kitted DSLRs at Sam's or Costco. Canon wants to have mirrorless models available for that market. Again, it's not about growth, but about maintaining their dominant share of the market.
As for 2023 and beyond, their strategy of effectively restricting availability of new RF glass to their own (generally expensive) brand, seems to be working in their favour.
The mid-range enthusiast market, in terms of the number of buyers, is likely to continue to shrink as people prioritise their spending on other things, so Canon have created a 2-tier system, with budget models to entice novices to the brand, and hi-end bodies and exotic glass for those lucky enough to afford it.
My guess :confused: is that budget models will be mostly directed at vloggers - a huge market full of wannabe "creators" who want more than a smartphone can offer, but don't want the bulk, complexity and expense of an enthusiast-level hybrid MILC.
Sony had no choice but to license 3rd party lenses. I can't imagine that they would sell anywhere near the bodies they do today otherwise. Adapting Canon lenses wasn't a long term solution when they entered the full frame MILC segment.
Your example of a different industry doesn't mean much... Canon have their own fab but it isn't clear which chips are made there or not for their bodies/lenses. Canon did quote supply chain issues restricting production volumes for 2021/2022 but most of the industries hit (including the car industry) are seeing less issues now.
The oil/gas industry has shown counter-cycle profits vs the overhyped tech companies and biggest twit of all has decimated market capital from his hubris.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see those cameras (although I doubt we’ll see the R1 until 2024), I just don’t think they’re the cameras to which Canon is referring here.
Most start out using an iPhone or similar smart phone, which actually produces very high quality content. Only after they've found some success will they buy dedicated equipment.
I suspect a much larger market are social media users who share images and videos on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Videos seem to be getting more and more popular on Twitter and even a lot of nature and bird photographers are sharing videos along with stills these days. A hybrid stills/video camera like the R series can be perfect for those sharing videos and stills on social media.
broaden our base of interchangeable-lens camera users"
It's Rebel R time let's goooooo! Affordable APS-C bodies and lenses for everyone!
The middle class (11-110 dollars a day) in advanced countries is aging but on a global basis the middle class is growing (despite the pandemic anomaly) especially in Asia (China + India). Nearly half the world's population is now considered middle class and by 2030 India's middle class would be aged 20-45.
https://www.caixabankresearch.com/e...ence-middle-class-emerging-country-phenomenon
The OECD in its latest report on inequality, which considers middle class the households with an income that represents between 75% and 200% of the median income for their region and year. An interesting article on who is in the middle class and whether they consider themselves to be middle class
https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/economics-markets/labour-market-demographics/who-middle-class
=> as long as Canon can demonstrate that their lower end models are better than camera phones then there will be sales there. Phone computational photography and instant editing/sharing is tough to compete against though.
For R3/5/6 it would only be the upper middle class with significant disposable
There is still a decent segment of the "professional" market waiting for the R1 before migrating. Canon devotees will still stay with Canon - if nothing else that using their existing EF lenses. The R3/R5 great but the A1/Z9 are compelling products for switchers at that end of the market.