Canon releases financials for the full year 2022

[neuroanatomist]

Just because a company has been sucessful in the past, doesn't guarantee correct decisions for the future. Just ask the guys over at Nokia. Or AOL. Or any of the other dozens of once market leaders that got eaten alive by their competiton.

Not saying that what Canon ia doing is wrong, because I can't forsee the future. But to say that the decisions Canon takes are good because it's Canon that takes them is naive at best.

No, past performance doesn’t guarantee future success. You can toss out a couple of exceptions that prove the rule, the reality is that past success is a darn good predictor of making good business decisions in the future. Just ask the people at the thousands of successful companies that stay that way.

Random people posting on the internet seem generally unable to distinguish between their personal desires and the larger market. If Canon does something they don’t like, it must be that Canon made a bad decision. If Canon does something they really don’t like, it must be such a colossal blunder that Canon will ‘suffer the consequences’. D00med by any other name…

I’m not saying Canon is making correct decisions simply because they’re Canon. I’m saying that Canon is more likely to know the correct decisions to make than a rando posting on an Internet forum, because Canon is a multibillion dollar, market-leading company with demonstrated experience and access to market research data that far exceeds the personal knowledge of said forum randos.

If you want to bet on (or be) that rando, well, you might be right…people do win the lottery. Just not many people, and the odds are heavily against them. And this is about making data-driven business decisions, not luck.

In that context, I’ll point out that I predicted Canon wouldn’t launch an APS-C EOS R body, in part because of the very successful M line. Canon launched two APS-C R bodies (and is reportedly about to launch a third). Last month, the R10 was #3 on BCN (sales in Japan), ahead of the top M series that came in at #6. As I said, Canon knows the market better than anyone posting here.

 

[melgross]

You were wrong, and refused to admit it. Is that really so hard? It's sad that being corrected upsets you so deeply that you have to resort to personal insults.

I’ve stated several times in various discussions here on this site, that Canon’s M series has been the number one, or number two in most every market they compete in. So I do know about that. But pretty much everyone doesn’t consider those to be relevant to the lines Canon, Nikon and Sony have, as it’s a dead end. It seems Canon thinks that too. So, it does t really matter as a camera line, and that’s why I left it out. But still, your insulting peop,e, it just me, is intolerable. Even though I agree with you most of the time.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I’ve stated several times in various discussions here on this site, that Canon’s M series has been the number one, or number two in most every market they compete in. So I do know about that. But pretty much everyone doesn’t consider those to be relevant to the lines Canon, Nikon and Sony have, as it’s a dead end. It seems Canon thinks that too. So, it does t really matter as a camera line, and that’s why I left it out. But still, your insulting peop,e, it just me, is intolerable. Even though I agree with you most of the time.

Like @Michael Clark, you seem almost pathologically incapable of simply admitting you were wrong or made a mistake. The mental gymnastics are amusing. “I know about the M line but I said Canon had no mirrorless sales 4 years ago because the M line is a dead end,” really? You expect anyone to swallow that tripe? Lol.

 

[melgross]

The point is: the EOS M line was launched in 2012, they are mirrorless ILCs, they are made by Canon, and by four years ago Canon had launched 8 lenses for the line. So when you stated:

…you were full of sh!t. We all know that, too.

You don’t have any friends, do you?

 

[neuroanatomist]

But still, your insulting peop,e, it just me, is intolerable.

You really are a sucky person, we all know that too. Do you have so many problems in your life that you have to insult people here?

You don’t have any friends, do you?

Intolerable for others to do so, but perfectly acceptable for you to do so?

Evidently when you say something false and are called on it, you take that as a personal insult. Is it really so hard for you to just admit that you made a mistake?

 

[dolina]

Canon has released their financials for the full year of 2022. Things are going well all things considered. I guess the YouTubers continue to be wrong about the market. From Canon Financials As for the camera market, despite concerns that consumer spending will decline, thedemand of users, which mainly consists of professionals and enthusiasts –

See full article...

CIPA members as a whole had mirrorless doing better than point & shoots + SLR.

I think P&S + SLR will go below 0.5 million/year by 2026? Mirrorless will be 6-7 million annually? Catering to working photogs and enthusiasts demanding the last 1% of performance.

Year	2019	2020	2021	2,022
Total Cameras	15,216,957	8,886,292	8,361,521	8,011,598
Point & Shoot	6,755,467	3,578,643	3,013,250	2,084,865
Total SLR & Mirrorless	8,461,490	5,307,649	5,348,271	5,926,733
SLR	4,504,987	2,374,569	2,241,772	1,853,222
Mirrorless	3,956,503	2,933,080	3,106,499	4,073,511
% of Point & Shoots	44.39%	40.27%	36.04%	26.02%
% of SLR & Mirrorless	55.61%	59.73%	63.96%	73.98%
Worldwide population	7.673 billion	7.753 billion	7.9 billion	8 billion

16 years ago this slide was shown at the unveiling of the 2007 iPhone 2G.

Puts into perspective what annual worldwide shipments of nearly quarter billion iPhones and about 1 billion Android smartphones have done to game consoles, digital cameras, MP3 players and PCs.

 

[EOS 4 Life]

CIPA members as a whole had mirrorless doing better than point & shoots + SLR.

I wonder if Canon will make another point-and-shoot.
Sony seems to be doing OK with the ZV-E1.
Canon could probably easily make a point-and-shoot version of the R50.

 

[dolina]

I wonder if Canon will make another point-and-shoot.
Sony seems to be doing OK with the ZV-E1.
Canon could probably easily make a point-and-shoot version of the R50.

Canon hasn't released a new SKU for 3 years.

I'd surrender that market to the iPhone, Android and whatever fool CIPA member thinks they have better luck than them.

What I'd like to know is who will be #1, #2 & #3 for full frame mirrorless.

Will it be Canon, Sony & Nikon?

 

[EOS 4 Life]

What I'd like to know is who will be #1, #2 & #3 for full frame mirrorless.

Will it be Canon, Sony & Nikon?

I suspect it will be in the order you have it.
Sony really has nothing to go against the R8.

 

[dolina]

I suspect it will be in the order you have it.
Sony really has nothing to go against the R8.

For the same $1499 R8 price Panasonic has the Lumix S5.

The Sony bodies nearest to that price would be the $1798 2020 Sony a7C & $1399 2014 Sony a7 II.

Within 12 months expect price movements or a new full frame body SKU.

 

[melgross]

Like @Michael Clark, you seem almost pathologically incapable of simply admitting you were wrong or made a mistake. The mental gymnastics are amusing. “I know about the M line but I said Canon had no mirrorless sales 4 years ago because the M line is a dead end,” really? You expect anyone to swallow that tripe? Lol.

I expect you to be polite, which is something you seem incapable of.

 

[neuroanatomist]

I expect you to be polite, which is something you seem incapable of.

So I should be polite, like you?

You really are a sucky person

You don’t have any friends, do you?

Lol.

 

[AlanF]

And this:

You guys are obviously have reading comprehension problems. I said,mcropping to the same number of pixels, not to the same sensor size. Seriously, if you can’t understand that simple,statement,, then just go home.

 

[neuroanatomist]

@melgross - "You guys are obviously have reading comprehension problems. I said,mcropping to the same number of pixels, not to the same sensor size. Seriously, if you can’t understand that simple,statement,, then just go home."

That one literally made me laugh out loud from the grammatical paradox.

 

[Michael Clark]

Like @Michael Clark, you seem almost pathologically incapable of simply admitting you were wrong or made a mistake. The mental gymnastics are amusing. “I know about the M line but I said Canon had no mirrorless sales 4 years ago because the M line is a dead end,” really? You expect anyone to swallow that tripe? Lol.

I've always held that the reports of the EOS M line's demise that have been around since around 2013 were (more than) a bit exaggerated.

 

[Michael Clark]

I agree, it's clear that Canon would benefit from introducing more budget models, as these historically make up a high percentage of unit sales. I think these bottom-end models will be targeted mainly at vloggers rather than stills shooters.

My own highly insightful observations :

No surprise that Canon is projecting little to no overall growth in the market. The enthusiast market is aging out and the professional market has been shrinking for decades. Camera manufacturers will be lucky to find enough new customers to offset the losses, let alone see some growth. Canon's strategy for the past several years seems to be to capture more dollars per unit rather than rely on ever-increasing unit sales.

Agree that the line about broadening their base probably refers to more budget models. I don't think that is in conflict with what I just wrote. Canon has relied on the lower cost Rebel market for years. I see this as a market that has a lot of churn. People buy a "nice" camera in conjunction with certain life events (birth of a child, major vacations, kids starting sports, etc. etc.) Each year a certain number of this group moves on and another contingent moves in to replace them, so that overall demand remains fairly constant. These customers used to buy kitted DSLRs at Sam's or Costco. Canon wants to have mirrorless models available for that market. Again, it's not about growth, but about maintaining their dominant share of the market.

I know not what it is like in other cultures, but in the U.S. interest in still images is pretty much dead among the under 30 crowd. It's all about 15-second Tik-Tok videos. Sure, there are a few hobbyists who like to create still images in the younger demographic, but there are very few interested in consuming (viewing/buying) them.

 

[Michael Clark]

Canon's projected profit for "cameras" (not sure whether this also includes photographic lenses, flash units etc) for 2022 was 520.1, and the actual profit turned out to be 509.7. It's quite likely therefore that their "no overall growth" 2023 estimate was influenced by the poorer than expected 2022 result. Nevertheless, if I recall correctly, they have increased market share against Sony.

As for 2023 and beyond, their strategy of effectively restricting availability of new RF glass to their own (generally expensive) brand, seems to be working in their favour.

The mid-range enthusiast market, in terms of the number of buyers, is likely to continue to shrink as people prioritise their spending on other things, so Canon have created a 2-tier system, with budget models to entice novices to the brand, and hi-end bodies and exotic glass for those lucky enough to afford it.

My guess is that budget models will be mostly directed at vloggers - a huge market full of wannabe "creators" who want more than a smartphone can offer, but don't want the bulk, complexity and expense of an enthusiast-level hybrid MILC.

Perhaps it's not so much that there is not a market for mid-grade gear any more as it is that Canon has determined that by offering mid-grade options they lose more profit in the higher tier product lines than they would gain in the mid-tier lines? As long as Fuji continues to price their mid-grade APS-C stuff at near FF prices, Canon probably has little to worry about in terms of losing sales to other camera makers who do offer mid-range products.

 

[Michael Clark]

I think you are overestimating the size of the vlogger market. While it may seem like everybody and his brother has a YouTube Channel or a video blog, in terms of total market, it doesn't represent that many people. And, the majority of those who start such ventures flame out pretty quickly once they realize that creating compelling, quality content is real work.

Most start out using an iPhone or similar smart phone, which actually produces very high quality content. Only after they've found some success will they buy dedicated equipment.

I suspect a much larger market are social media users who share images and videos on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. Videos seem to be getting more and more popular on Twitter and even a lot of nature and bird photographers are sharing videos along with stills these days. A hybrid stills/video camera like the R series can be perfect for those sharing videos and stills on social media.

I think many of us would consider someone who posts things such as nature and bird videos on Twitter, IG, and Facebook to be vloggers?

 

[Michael Clark]

"we plan to further strengthen our EOS R series lineup by, for example, introducing models that will
broaden our base of interchangeable-lens camera users"

It's Rebel R time let's goooooo! Affordable APS-C bodies and lenses for everyone!

More like "affordable*" cameras and lenses.

*Accounting for increasing inflation that has impacted everything from groceries to energy to entertainment and, yes, electronic "toys".

 

[Michael Clark]

That is all true but halo models do drag the rest of the market.

Canon has stated that the R3 is not their flagship whereas Sony (based on previous lifecycles) is likely to update the A1 at approximately the same timeframe.

The R1 may jump the competition then but it will be good for all consumers.
It will be hard for the R1 to justify an expected price premium over the R3 vs the Z9 though.
The R5ii at the same price (if following the R6ii pricing strategy) would still be competitive.

Halo products do not broaden the user base (i.e. the number of unique individuals using Canon's products). Entry level products do that. Halo products only create name brand cachet that broadens a user base if the entry level products with the same branding are available.